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TRENDS ANALYSIS

Keeping independent schools informed,

open to change and sustainable.

.

ISASA REPORTERwww.isasa.org “TELLING IT LIKE IT IS” - Since 1999

Dr Jane HofmeyrISASA Executive Director

NEWS

Why we do this …

Sources

P.E.S.T.E. ANALYSISISASA scans the environment to increase our strategic intelligence: to anticipate challenges that will face us, improve our products and services, and enhance schools’ strategic thinking.

• Futurists and Trend Analysts• Government reports• Media• International research• Think tanks

April 2013

POLITICAL HEADLINES: GLOBAL

‘Achilles heel’: Inequality, systemic risk and shocks

“Integrated fragility” (Keith Coats)

April 2013

IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION

4 features:• more emphasis on

difference• more interdependence• accelerating, non-linear

change• emergence of increasingly

complex, heterogeneous societies


• Developing world: conflict & instability - Arab Spring to become hot African Summer?It is possible to imagine a perfect

political & social storm ripe for revolution. (Greg Mills)

• Eurozone crisis -political tensions

• Debate on role of state: globalisation, national governments and competing identities

• Emergence of ‘global elites’ above national laws

• Rampant inequalities• Chinese factor: vs US,

role in Africa

April 2013


YOUTHQUAKE

CIA World Factbook 201150,4% of world’s population below 30World median age 28.4; Africa 19.7 (SA 25 Census 2011)

April 2013


RAGE AND REVOLUTION

• Youth fuelling uprisings:All have the same demands: a right to choose and change their leaders, an end to rampant corruption, the opportunity for employment and improvement.

(Bobby Ghosh, TIME)

SA shares same characteristics as in Arab countries: abnormally high youth unemployment combined with active social networks & growing feeling of alienation from State by youth. (Clem Sunter)

April 2013

• Youth aspirations: security, jobs, modern lifestyle, education

• Sense of agency

POLITICAL HEADLINES

LOCAL ISSUES

• Mistrust of authority• Triple fault lines:

poverty, inequalityand unemployment

• Global perceptions: negative (dropped rating)

• Policy uncertainty: land reform, mining companies, attacks on Constitution

• Mangaung: Zumareturned, Ramaphosa in, Malema out, NDP endorsed

• Tensions in the Alliance • Weak governance:

patronage, careerism, corruption, lack of capacity

April 2013

POLITICAL HEADLINES: LOCAL

And the good news …

In South Africa the worst, like the best, never happens. (Jan Smuts, 1949)

SA is a real democracy with a progressive constitution, an independent judiciary and free media. Despite the dominance of a single party, there is no censorship, no vote-rigging and no suppression of debate in Parliament or the press. The democratic tools for holding leaders accountable are all in place - but they remain largely unused. (Ruchir Sharma: Morgan Stanley, 2012)

April 2013

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANApril 2013

DRIVING CHANGE

Our future – make it work


NDP: Roadmap to a better SA

Change is not what we read in plans & policies. Change occurs when people behave differently. (Trevor Manuel, 2012)

April 2013

• High-level objectives for 2030: eliminate poverty, reduce inequality

• Enabling milestones in raising living standards:increasing employment, raising income, increasing access to health care, improving quality of education• all children: 2 years pre-school, reading & writing in Grade 3• increased learner retention (to 90%• higher mathematics & literacy achievement• strengthened teacher training

• Critical actions: social compact, multi-pronged strategy


Roles of Business and Civil Society?Positive: • “Lead SA”• Effective social action vs e-tolling and “Secrecy” Bill• Social action groups e.g. Section 27, Equal Education • Business finding its voice – questioning government

Negative:• Violent protests: Marikana, farm workers, Zamdela• Weakened NGO sector• Lack of visible business leadership• Boards & CEOs seen as self-interested, not

responsible citizens

April2013

ECONOMIC HEADLINES: GLOBAL

• Chinese growth: key economic driver butslower growth, can’t replace Europe & US demand, and in difficult transition from export to internal demand

SHIFT FROM NORTH & WEST TO SOUTH & EAST

• Eurozone & US: fragile financial systems, high debt, low growth, rising oil prices, high unemployment

• Emerging markets, espec. BRIC(S): rapid urbanisation, population growth more purchasing power butincome inequality and youth unemployment

April 2013

ECONOMIC HEADLINES: REGIONAL

AFRICA TO RIDE WAVE OF GROWTH?

• Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth faster than Brazil & India

• Huge potential: 60% world’s uncultivated arable land

• By 2050 Africa’s est. population (2bn) will be greater than India’s (1.6bn) & China’s (1.4bn)

BUT• Lingering conflicts

hinder growth: West and Central Africa

• Governments required to demonstrate commitment to democratic governance, transparency, accountability, poverty reduction & equitable distribution of wealth

April 2013

ECONOMIC HEADLINES: LOCAL

• Service delivery: 12 RDP houses built for every shack built

• Strong economic infrastructure & financial institutions

• Launching pad into Africa but ‘leakage’ to other countries

POSITIVE:• Economic growth

forecast 2.7%• Consumption-driven:

high public sector wages

• Growing black middle class

• More upwards social mobility

• Infrastructure investment

April 2013

Investments

Public vs private sector remuneration since 2008

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

08 09 10 11 12

Public sectorPrivate sectorTotal Employment

Real total wage bill: Index 2008=100

ECONOMIC HEADLINES: LOCAL

• High dependency on state – 30% pop. on social grants (16 million)

• Education system can’t provide skills to meet demand for tertiary-skilled workers

• Serious physical limits around energy, water and transport

• Need for more private-public sector trust and cooperation

NEGATIVE: • Foreign investment

affected by socio-political unrest, policy uncertainty, troubled labour relations

• Commodities demand but declining mining sector

• Change from primary, mining-based economy to a tertiary, hi-tech, service-based economy

• Credit growth relatively weak

April 2013

SOCIO-CULTURAL HEADLINES

IMPORTANCE OF SOCIAL CAPITALFinancial capital sits in the bank, human capital in skills and social capital in relations with others. (World Bank)

LACK OF SOCIAL COHESION• Social ‘pain’ (Dr Mamphela Ramphele, CM4SC):

- underestimated the extent of inherited chasm - unfinished business of the liberation of the psyche -

our “woundedness”

• Moral bankruptcy: crime, corruption, apathy, violence, aggression, acrimonious public discourse

April 2013

SOCIO-CULTURAL HEADLINES

MISSING IN ACTION: JOE CITIZEN? An active citizenry is the key to

making progress. Each person must think of themselves as the guardian of the Constitution and live its values … They must make others aware of their rights and they must hold those in public office accountable. (Dr Ramphele)

South Africans need to learn to be citizens of a constitutional democracy.

- growing gap between the 1994 vision and values of our Constitution and our personal and professional lives

(Ethics Institute of SA)

Where is our vibrant civic voice? Citizens must take SA back from the politicians.

(Brendan Boyle)

April 2013

ENVIRONMENTAL HEADLINES: GLOBAL

PLANET UNDER PRESSURE

April 2013

• Public/Private collaboration• Transparency• Global consistency• Mixed disciplines approach

Sustainable development trends:

Global Green Growth Forum 2013

Transition to green economy focussing on: Depletion of natural resources Climate changeGlobal poverty

Initiatives include:- reducing malnutrition- increasing crop yields- infectious disease

management- early warning systems for

natural disasters

ENVIRONMENTAL HEADLINES: LOCALApril 2013

• National Development Plan– economy unsustainably

resource intensive– strong environmental

prescripts• King III: SA is world leader in

integrated corporate reporting

• Collaboration in private sector: National Business Initiative

• Companies need to be ‘good citizens’

• Youth influence: ‘cool to be green’, vibrant & passionate, look for honesty & authenticity, want long-term social responsibility

• Demand for eco-superior products:eco-friendly andsuperior functionality, design and savings

TECHNOLOGY HEADLINES

Power of social media• Hyper-connected generation• Instant gratification wanted• Constant communication (FOMO)

Tech trends:• Portability: tablets and

smartphones• Touch and voice• Cashless society• Online learning• ‘Gamification’ of

education• BYOD (Bring Your Own Device)

• Smart TV using Apps• 3D computing• eBooks• Cloud computing

Facebook = world’s 3rd largest ‘country’; Jan 2013 6,1m FB

users in SA (80% mobile access)

April 2013

WHERE TO NEXT?

OLYMPICS 2016?

April 2013

TECHNOLOGY HEADLINES

NETWORK OF KNOWLEDGE “Too big to know” • Over-abundance of

data

• Knowledge is ‘continuously public’

• Line blurs between professionals & amateurs

The last word is now never the last word.

(David Weinberger)

April 2013

• Digital media changing shape, evolution & perception of knowledge

• Knowledge networks lead to development of ideas by groups rather than individuals

• Networked expertise from large, diverse interactive groups – “crowd-sourcing”

There are no isolated ideas … there are only webs of ideas.

SIGN OF THE TIMESApril 2013

EDUCATION CHALLENGES: GLOBALApril 2013

In an environment of instant and infinite information … [students] need to move from being simply knowledgeable to being knowledge-able.

(Michael Wesch)

21st century competencies

5 C’s + 1: • Critical thinking • Creativity• Communication• Collaboration• Character + Cross-cultural skills

(Pat Bassett, NAIS)

EDUCATION HEADLINES: GLOBALApril 2013

• Education at forefront of political debate and reform• Centralised control vs school-level autonomy• Choice of types of public schools, e.g. charter

schools, academies, free schools• Greater accountability, mandatory national testing• Attention to under-performing schools and pupils• Growth of private schooling: branded chains of mid-

fee schools, private education for the poor (PEP)• School sustainability under stress: increasing

pressure on fees, declining top-level incomes, debt• Hyper-parenting or under-parenting

EDUCATION HEADLINES: GLOBALApril 2013

• Challenge of teacher training and quality • Pressure on teacher recruitment, retention, reward:

changing job attitudes, older retirement age, less security

• Instructional leadership essential• Ongoing curriculum change• Examinations reform: higher level cognitive demand• Huge advances in brain research about learning• Impact of social media/digital revolution on learning• Environmental ethic: how we treat others & the earth• ‘Design Thinking’ for pupils

EDUCATION CHALLENGES: GLOBALApril 2013

FORCES TRANSFORMING EDUCATION:• Teacher-centric to

learner-centric• Classroom-bound to

unbound• Mandated to

individualized learning• From consumer to

producer• Greater client power

brings more accountability (CfBT Trust)

The twilight of schooling as we know it is the prelude to the dawn of education as students need it.

(Pat Bassett, NAIS)

EDUCATION HEADLINESApril 2013

LEARNING ENVIRONMENT• Changing the conversation

from the device to learning: connecting devices to curriculum

• Blended learning: face-to-face with mediated online lessons

• Flipped classrooms: homework at school, instruction at home.

• Open-source materials • Teaming – collaborative, real-

world, team-oriented learning

Classifieds: Wanted

INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS: THE BASICS

The three R’s of a “value-related” strategy for independent schools

• Reinforcing the value proposition• Re-engineering financial models

- more efficient and sustainable- not the price-leader but the value-leader

• Remembering that “values are the value-add” of an independent school education

April 2013

“GOOD TO GREAT”

All good schools have the capacity to become great schools. All they need is the will and leadership, at all levels, to do so.

(Pat Bassett, NAIS)

April 2013

“Greatness” is built on a culture of discipline. (Jim Collins)

INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS: CHALLENGES

BECOMING GREAT:• Adopt a big vision and long horizon into the

community & world• Market the school with ‘sticky’ messages• Embrace stewardship of school, all resources, earth• Make data-rich decisions• Commit to diversity of all kinds & at all levels to

develop cross-cultural competencies• Manifest a coherent philosophy of learning• Experiment with schooling• Get best teachers and best out of teachers

April 2013

INDEPENDENT EDUCATION: LOCAL

• Public vs private education the issue

• More public support for IS• Complex government

relations • Increasingly disabling

policy environment –more governmental intrusion, accountability & compliance demands

• Increased competition:more IS & for-profit chains

• Inter-dependence of independent schools

• Changing demography: o school-age

population declining o urbanisation and

internal migrationo growing black

middle and upper classes

o foreign students

April 2013

INDEPENDENT EDUCATION: LOCALApril2013

CENSUS 2011• Population of SA: 51,8 million Young: 1/3 below 15 2001: over 4,8 million children 0–5;

2011: less than 4,6 million Marked decline of males and females

at ages 5–14

INDEPENDENT SCHOOL STRATEGIESApril 2013

• Refine your mission: clarify values, identify value-add, find competitive niche

• Re-define leadership: head and board

• Ensure effective governance and risk management

• Strategically examine school’s sustainability: link to mission, contain fees, increase other income and financial aid

• Attract new middle class, disadvantaged learners with potential, international pupils

• Explore partnerships with govt. & business

• Manage teacher performance, restructure remuneration

• Develop teachers as professionals, ‘grow’ new ones

INDEPENDENT SCHOOL STRATEGIESApril 2013

• Integrate interactive ICTs:– e-learning, responsible

digital citizenship– admin., marketing,

customer satisfaction• Emphasise ethical and

moral education to embed positive values, develop competency in ethical decision-making

• Increase contribution to public good, active citizenship

• Develop a diversity policy and plan, appoint committee, set goals and timelines

• Go ‘green’ - commit to environmental sustainability

• Communicate often with parents and stakeholders

• Use brain research to develop theory of learning: re-think learner motivation

THE AGE OF FLUXApril 2013

The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.

(Peter Drucker)

Truly outstanding schools thrive

because they evolve to challenge, inspire, and prepare students

for an open-ended future.

(Pat Bassett)

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