economic and commercial real estate outlook
DESCRIPTION
Lawrence Yun's presentation at the Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum at the 2013 REALTORS® Conference and Expo.TRANSCRIPT
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual ConferenceCommercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum
San Francisco, CA
November 8, 2013
GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no Fresh Recession
(Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery)
2005 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q3
2007 - Q1
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q1
2008 - Q3
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q3
2010 - Q1
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q1
2011 - Q3
2012 - Q1
2012 - Q3
2013 - Q1
-5-4-3-2-1012345
% growth from one year ago
U.S. Total Payroll Jobs(8 million lost … 7 million gained)
2000 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jan124000
126000
128000
130000
132000
134000
136000
138000
140000In thousands
States with Fast Job Growth State Job Growth Rate
1 North Dakota 3.2%2 Utah 2.7%3 Idaho 2.5%4 Texas 2.4%5 Colorado 2.3%6 Minnesota 2.3%7 Georgia 2.1%8 Washington 2.1%9 Arizona 2.0%
10 New Jersey 2.0%
Unemployment Rate
2000 - Jan2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr2007 - Jan2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Employment Rate
2000 - Jan2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr2007 - Jan2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr54
56
58
60
62
64
66
Labor Force Participation Rate:Record Low for Men and Cyclical Low for Women
(Adults 20 years old and up)
1970 - Jan 1975 - Jul 1981 - Jan 1986 - Jul 1992 - Jan 1997 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2008 - Jul4045505560657075808590
Women Men
Well Shy of Long Run Trend (6 to 8 million more jobs needed)
1970 - Jan 1975 - Jul 1981 - Jan 1986 - Jul 1992 - Jan 1997 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2008 - Jul60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150In millions
Consumer Spending Growth(2% growth; not 3% or 4%)
1980 - Q1 1984 - Q2 1988 - Q3 1992 - Q4 1997 - Q1 2001 - Q2 2005 - Q3 2009 - Q4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Business Spending Growth(3% growth; not sustained 5% to 10%)
1980 - Q1 1984 - Q2 1988 - Q3 1992 - Q4 1997 - Q1 2001 - Q2 2005 - Q3 2009 - Q4
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?)
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
2013 foreca
st
2014 foreca
st0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Fed Funds %
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing
2005 - Jan 2006 - Apr 2007 - Jul 2008 - Oct 2010 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2012 - Jul0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
Total Asset Purchase
$ million
Consumer Price InflationLess than 2%
(% change from one year ago)
2003 - Jan 2004 - Jun 2005 - Nov2007 - Apr 2008 - Sep 2010 - Feb 2011 - Jul 2012 - Dec
-3-2-10123456
Core Overall
Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 2% and On the Way to 3%)
2003 - Jan 2004 - Jun 2005 - Nov2007 - Apr 2008 - Sep 2010 - Feb 2011 - Jul 2012 - Dec-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Owners' Equivalent Rent Renters' Rent
Household Net Worth
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q4
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q2
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q4
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q2
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q4
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q2
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q4
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q2
2012 - Q1
2012 - Q4
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000$ billion
Federal Government Spending(Stimulus … Flat … Decline)
2005 - Jan 2006 - Apr 2007 - Jul 2008 - Oct 2010 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2012 - Jul2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80$ trillion
Shrinking Budget Deficit(in $billion)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-1600
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Federal Government Annual Spending/Revenue
1992 - Jan1995 - Oct 1999 - Jul 2003 - Apr2007 - Jan2010 - Oct0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Tax RevenueGovt Spending
$ trillion
Federal Debt Held By Public(Cumulative Accumulation as % of GDP)
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Germany
• Too High Trade Surplus• No Stimulus• Budget Surplus in 2013 (though still has high
debt from prior deficits)• Blame Germany for holding back the World
Economy?
• Or Emulate Germany’s Economic Reforms?
International Sovereign Borrowing CostCountry 10-year Government Borrowing Cost
Japan 0.6%
Switzerland 1.1%
Germany 1.7%
France 2.3%
Canada 2.4%
U.S. 2.5%
Britain 2.6%
China 4.0%
Spain 4.1%
Italy 4.2%
Russia 7.5%
India 8.6%
Greece 8.7%
Brazil 11.6%
Consumer ConfidenceNow and About Future
2000 - Jan2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr2007 - Jan2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr0
20406080
100120140160180200
Expectations Present
Productivity and Income DoublingProductivity Growth Years for Income to Double Examples
1% 72 years U.S. today?
2% 36 years 1970 to 2007 (pre-financial market crash)
3% 24 years U.S. post-war to 1970
5% 14 years Asian Tigers
GDP Forecast
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20232.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
CBOWhite HouseBlue Chip Consensus
Commercial Market Activity
Transactions Up 27% YoY – 2013 YTD
Source: Real Capital Analytics
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13$0
$20,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$80,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$120,000,000,000
$140,000,000,000
$160,000,000,000
$180,000,000,000 Individual Portfolio Entity
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-100%
-50%0%
50%100%150%200%
CRE Prices Advance – CBD Off & Apt Lead
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1375
125
175
225Moody’s/RCA CPPI
Apartment
Industrial
Retail
CBD-Office
Sub - Office
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Spreads Remain Elevated
Source: Real Capital Analytics
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
10yr UST* Cap Rate Spread (bps)
REALTOR® Markets Deal Size
< $250,000
$250,000 - $500,000
$500,000 - $1,000,000
$1,000,000 - $2,000,000
$2,000,000 - $5,000,000
$5,000,000 - $10,000,000
> $10,000,000
21%
22%
26%
17%
12%
1%
2%
2013 CRE Lending Survey: Value of most recent sales transaction
Source: NAR
REALTOR® CRE Markets Rebound
2008.Q4
2009.Q1
2009.Q2
2009.Q3
2009.Q4
2010.Q1
2010.Q2
2010.Q3
2010.Q4
2011.Q1
2011.Q2
2011.Q3
2011.Q4
2012.Q1
2012.Q2
2012.Q3
2012.Q4
2013.Q1
2013.Q2
2013.Q3
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Sales Volume (YoY % Chg)
Major CRE Markets Realtor CRE Markets
Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
Deals > $2.5M
Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets
2008.Q4
2009.Q1
2009.Q2
2009.Q3
2009.Q4
2010.Q1
2010.Q2
2010.Q3
2010.Q4
2011.Q1
2011.Q2
2011.Q3
2011.Q4
2012.Q1
2012.Q2
2012.Q3
2012.Q4
2013.Q1
2013.Q2
2013.Q3
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Sales Prices (YoY % Chg)
Moody’s/RCA CPPI - Major Markets Realtor CRE Markets
Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
8%
17%
25%
7%6%
4%
18%
1% 11%
3%Current sources of financing for commercial dealsNational banks (“Big four”)Regional banksLocal banksCredit unionsLife insurance companiesREITsPrivate investorsPublic companiesSmall Business AdministrationOther, please specify
Source: NAR
Small Banks Important to REALTORS®
SIOR Markets in Recovery
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index
Northeast Midwest South West
Source: SIOR, NAR
CCIM Quarterly Market Trends
Apartment Fundamentals
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
U.S. Apartment Fundamentals
Completions Net Absorption Vac %
Source: NAR, Reis
Apartment Rents
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg
Source: Reis
Apartment Vacancy Comparison
New Haven
Syracuse
New York
San Diego
Minneapolis
Oakland-East Bay
Buffalo
U.S. NATIO
NAL
Greensboro
/Winsto
n-SalemAtla
nta
Columbia
Jackso
nville
Houston
Little Rock
Memphis0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
APARTMENT Vacancy Rates
Source: NAR, Reis
Apartment Investments
Avg. PPU (K)
Source: Real Capital Analytics
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0% Avg. Cap Rate
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
$- $5,000,000,000.0
$10,000,000,000.0 $15,000,000,000.0 $20,000,000,000.0 $25,000,000,000.0 $30,000,000,000.0 $35,000,000,000.0 $40,000,000,000.0
$ Volume
2013 YTD: $45.3 B
Renter Households
1980 - Q11984 - Q21988 - Q31992 - Q41997 - Q12001 - Q22005 - Q32009 - Q425,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000In thousands
Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow
1980 - Q11984 - Q21988 - Q31992 - Q41997 - Q12001 - Q22005 - Q32009 - Q450,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000In thousands
Household Formation Bursting Out(in millions)
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20120.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.00
Office Fundamentals
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-150,000,000
-100,000,000
-50,000,000
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
U.S. Office Fundamentals
Completions Net Absorption Vac %
Squa
re F
eet
Source: NAR, Reis
Office Rents
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg
Source: Reis
Office Vacancy Comparison
Distric
t of C
olumbia
New York
Little Rock
Birmingham
Nashville
New Orle
ans
San Francisco
U.S. NATIO
NALDalla
s
San Bernard
ino/Riversi
de
Memphis
Las V
egas
Phoenix
Detroit
Dayton0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
OFFICE Vacancy Rates
Source: NAR, Reis
Office Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0% Avg. Cap Rate
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
$- $10,000,000,000.0 $20,000,000,000.0 $30,000,000,000.0 $40,000,000,000.0 $50,000,000,000.0 $60,000,000,000.0 $70,000,000,000.0 $80,000,000,000.0 $90,000,000,000.0
$ Volume
2013 YTD: $31.5B
Jobs in Professional Business and Financial Services … at New Peak
2000 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jul23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0In millions
Retail Fundamentals
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-30,000,000
-20,000,000
-10,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
U.S. Retail Fundamentals
Completions Net Absorption Vac %
Squa
re F
eet
Source: NAR, Reis
Retail Rents
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg
Source: Reis
Retail Vacancy Comparison
San Francisco
Fairfield County
Long Isl
and
Orange County
Northern
New Jerse
y
Los A
ngeles
San Jose
U.S. NATIO
NAL
Indianapolis
Chattanooga
Cleveland
Columbus
Colorado Springs
DaytonTulsa
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
RETAIL Vacancy Rates
Source: NAR, Reis
Retail Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0% Avg. Cap Rate
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
$-
$5,000,000,000.0
$10,000,000,000.0
$15,000,000,000.0
$20,000,000,000.0
$25,000,000,000.0
$30,000,000,000.0
$35,000,000,000.0 $ Volume
2013 YTD: $23.5B
Jobs in Retail Trade(Still Below Prior Peak)
2000 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jul13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0 In millions
Spending Effect from Higher Home Prices18% cumulative gains over 2 years
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000 Median Existing Home Price
Industrial Fundamentals
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-100,000,000
-50,000,000
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
U.S. Industrial Fundamentals
Completions Net Absorption Vac %
Squa
re F
eet
Source: NAR, Reis
Industrial Rents
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$4.30
$4.40
$4.50
$4.60
$4.70
$4.80
$4.90
$5.00
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg
Source: Reis
Industrial Vacancy Comparison
Orange County
Los A
ngeles
Miami
Seattle
St. Louis
Palm Beach
San Bernard
ino/Riversi
de
U.S. NATIO
NAL
Charlotte
Atlanta
Richmond
Memphis
Raleigh-Durh
am
San Jose
Boston
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.020.0
INDUSTRIAL Vacancy Rates
Source: NAR, Reis
Industrial Investments
Avg. PSF
Source: Real Capital Analytics
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0% Avg. Cap Rate
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
$- $2,000,000,000.0 $4,000,000,000.0 $6,000,000,000.0 $8,000,000,000.0
$10,000,000,000.0 $12,000,000,000.0 $14,000,000,000.0 $16,000,000,000.0 $18,000,000,000.0 $20,000,000,000.0
$ Volume
Jobs in Wholesale Trade(Still Below Prior Peak)
2000 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jul5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1In millions
U.S. International TradeLong-Term Growth
1992 - Jan 1995 - Jan 1998 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2013 - Jan0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Exports Imports
U.S. International TradeBut No Growth in Recent Years
2007 - Jan
2007 - May
2007 - Sep
2008 - Jan
2008 - May
2008 - Sep
2009 - Jan
2009 - May
2009 - Sep
2010 - Jan
2010 - May
2010 - Sep
2011 - Jan
2011 - May
2011 - Sep
2012 - Jan
2012 - May
2012 - Sep
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Exports Imports
International Dimension
International CRE Investment in U.S.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Volume of International Transactions (April 2012 to March 2013)
REALTORS® Working With International Clients
• In Past 12 Months, 27 Percent of REALTORS® Have Worked with an International Client.– Clients Residing in Another
Country: 51 Percent.– Clients Residing in this Country:
49 Percent.– A Niche Market on Buyer Side:
Facility with languages and cultures very helpful.
– On Sellers Side—Understanding of foreign cultures helpful.
Percent of Total U.S. International Sales by CountryTop Countries—2013 Report
*China includes PROC, Hong Kong, Taiwan
CanadaChina
MexicoIndia
United KingdomGermany
ArgentinaIsrael
AustraliaKoreaBrazil
FranceVenezuela
Russia
23%12%
8%5%
5%3%
3%2%2%2%
2%2%2%
2%
Shares of the Top Countries of Origin to Total Reported International Transactions
Top State Destinations—2013 Report
Top 10 Destinations
Florida
California
Arizona
Texas
New York
Virginia
Nevada
Hawaii
Illinois
Michigan
Georgia
23%
17%
9%
9%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
Majority of International Buyers Pay All Cash
Impact of the Value of the Dollar on Foreign Purchases
U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan(Yuan per $)
2000 - Jan2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr2007 - Jan2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
U.S. Dollar vs. Euro($ per Euro)
2000 - Jan2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr2007 - Jan2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Broad U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness(Broad Trade Weighted)
2000 - Jan2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr2007 - Jan2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr80
90
100
110
120
130
140
REALTORS® Working With International Clients