commercial real estate outlook august 2014

8/11/2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook August 2014

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ntinued from page 1)

ofessional and business services added 202,000 new

s, while the information and financial services

ustries contributed a combined 39,000 new jobs. The

ployment growth in office-using industries provides a

lcome lift to demand for office space.

e industrial real estate sector received a welcome

ost from steady increases in online retail sales, as

ployment growth in the warehousing and storage

ustries advanced by 4.6 percent on a year-over-year

sis during the second quarter. In comparison,ployment in the retail trade industries rose by 2.2

rcent yearly during the same period.

e unemployment rate declined from 6.7 percent in the

t quarter 2014 to 6.2 percent in the second quarter.

wever, the labor force participation rate continued its

wnward trend during the period, declining to 62.8

rcent. Employee compensationadjusted for

ationincreased by 2.6 percent during the second

arter.

ed by positive economic trends, consumer confidence

e during the quarter. The Conference Boards index

e to a value of 83.4 in the second quarter from 80.5 in

first quarter. The index hit a value of 90.9 in July,

proaching the equilibrium point of 100.0.

e GDP outlook for the third and fourth quarters of 2014

ojects stronger GDP growth rates of 2.8 and 2.9

rcent, respectively. With payroll employment growth in

latter half expected to add another 1.0 to 1.5 million

new jobs, the unemployment rate is expected to

cline to an average 6.0 percent by year-end.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT

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ATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS| RESEARCH DIVISION | www.realtors.org/research-and-statistics

2012 2013 2014 20

Annual Growth Rate, %

Real GDP 2.8 1.9 1.6 2.

Nonfarm Payroll

Employment 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.

Consumer Prices 2.1 1.4 2.6 3.

Level

Consumer Confidence 67 73 84 8Percent

Unemployment 8.1 7.4 6.3 5.

Fed Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.

3-Month T-bill Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.

Corporate Aaa Bond Yield 3.7 4.3 4.4 5.

10-Year Govt Bond 1.8 2.5 2.7 3.

30-Year Govt Bond 2.9 3.4 3.6 4.

Source: National Association of REALTORS

NATIONAL 2.91%

OFFICE 2.93%

INDUSTRIAL 3.26%

RETAIL 3.22%

APARTMENT 2.41%

Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries

00

00

0

00

00

2005-Jan

2005-Jun

2005-Nov

2006-Apr

2006-Sep

2007-Feb

2007-Jul

2007-Dec

2008-May

2008-Oct

2009-Mar

2009-Aug

2010-Jan

2010-Jun

2010-Nov

2011-Apr

2011-Sep

2012-Feb

2012-Jul

2012-Dec

2013-May

2013-Oct

2014-Mar

Payroll Employment Monthly Change (SA, '000s)

Source: BLS


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ICE 2014 III 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I 2014 2015 201

ncy Rate 15.7% 15.7% 15.9% 15.8% 15.7% 15.7% 15.7% 16.2% 15.8% 15.6

Absorption

0 sq. ft.) 12,094 10,995 12,163 12,669 14,190 11,656 13,315 36,192 50,678 57,7

pletions ('000 sq. ft.) 6,185 6,352 10,010 11,978 9,774 10,037 10,625 26,450 41,799 44,8

ntory ('000,000 sq. ft.) 4,099 4,105 4,115 4,127 4,137 4,147 4,158 4,105 4,147 4,1

Growth 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 2.6% 3.2% 3.6

USTRIAL 2014 III 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I 2014 2015 201

ncy Rate 8.9% 8.8% 8.7% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.3% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1

Absorption

0 sq. ft.) 27,971 24,744 18,891 26,237 31,484 28,336 18,908 107,580 104,948 105,

pletions ('000 sq. ft.) 16,953 16,133 14,439 21,314 19,939 13,063 12,961 83,424 68,755 61,7

ntory ('000,000 sq. ft.) 8,452 8,468 8,482 8,504 8,524 8,537 8,550 8,468 8,537 8,5

Growth 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 2.4% 2.8% 2.9

AIL 2014 III 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I 2014 2015 201

ncy Rate 9.8% 9.7% 9.8% 9.7% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.8% 9.7% 9.4

Absorption

0 sq. ft.) 4,030 3,918 5,215 4,442 3,567 6,089 6,565 11,214 19,314 24,3

pletions ('000 sq. ft.) 1,827 2,028 3,062 2,673 3,062 3,399 4,271 7,275 12,196 16,3

ntory ('000,000 sq. ft.) 2,033 2,035 2,036 2,039 2,042 2,046 2,050 2,035 2,046 2,0

Growth 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 2.0% 2.4% 3.0

LTI-FAMILY 2014 III 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I 2014 2015 201

ncy Rate 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.2

Absorption (Units) 67,429 63,595 43,399 39,969 38,106 48,590 35,778 223,421 170,065 140,

pletions (Units) 49,475 47,123 29,143 38,899 37,843 40,576 26,257 191,481 146,461 122,

ntory

ts in millions) 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.2 10

Growth 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.5

ces: National Association of REALTORS / Reis, Inc.


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4ATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS| RESEARCH DIVISION | www.realtors.org/research-and-statistics

ce: NAR, Reis, Inc. Office Industrial Retail Multifamiquerque NM 17.5 11.5 2.7

nta GA 19.5 13.6 13.2 5.7

tin TX 15.7 10.9 6.5 6.2

more MD 16.3 11.6 6.1 3.4

mingham AL 13.4 13.2 6.3

on MA 13.2 18.4 6.5 4.2

alo NY 16.2 13.5 3.4

tral New Jersey NJ 21.3 9.8 2.9

rleston SC 14.1 10.7 6.8

rlotte NC 17.3 12.7 10.4 6.4

ttanooga TN 15.7 14.9 4.5

ago IL 18.6 8.9 12.0 3.4

innati OH 20.6 8.6 12.5 3.5

eland OH 22.6 8.8 14.8 3.0

rado Springs CO 18.0 15.1 4.3

mbia SC 17.6 10.4 6.6

mbus OH 19.3 9.5 16.0 4.7

as TX 23.1 12.5 13.0 5.4

ton OH 26.2 15.7 5.3ver CO 16.8 7.6 10.4 4.7

oit MI 25.3 11.4 11.5 3.0

rict of Columbia DC 9.3 7.4

field County CT 21.7 3.9 5.3

Lauderdale FL 19.4 8.6 9.9 4.1

Worth TX 15.9 10.0 12.1 4.7

ensboro/Winston-Salem NC 21.2 11.6 5.9

enville SC 18.8 14.1 5.4

ford CT 19.7 10.0 2.5ston TX 14.7 8.0 11.8 5.9

anapolis IN 19.6 9.6 15.1 6.2

sonville FL 20.9 8.0 12.6 6.7

sas City MO 16.2 10.2 11.5 4.7

xville TN 14.4 11.1 5.1

Vegas NV 25.9 11.6 5.1

ngton KY 16.3 8.2 5.1

e Rock AR 11.5 11.7 6.3

g Island NY 13.0 5.2 2.7


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ce: NAR, Reis, Inc. Office Industrial Retail MultifamiAngeles CA 15.0 3.8 5.7 3.3

sville KY 15.2 9.2 5.9

mphis TN 23.4 14.5 11.4 8.8

mi FL 16.0 6.1 7.2 3.9

waukee WI 18.5 12.6 3.6

neapolis MN 16.9 7.2 10.6 2.8

hville TN 13.1 8.1 8.2 5.5

w Haven CT 16.8 13.7 2.5

w Orleans LA 12.7 11.6 5.6w York NY 9.6 3.0

folk/Hampton Roads VA 16.0 9.4 5.5

thern New Jersey NJ 18.6 5.6 4.2

and-East Bay CA 17.7 9.3 6.2 2.6

homa City OK 16.6 3.5 13.1 4.8

aha NE 14.5 9.0 3.8

nge County CA 16.9 5.3 2.2

ndo FL 17.5 11.0 11.8 4.9

m Beach FL 17.2 6.6 10.6 4.8adelphia PA 13.6 9.7 9.3 3.3

enix AZ 24.8 10.9 10.2 4.8

burgh PA 16.2 8.9 7.7 3.8

land OR 13.3 8.0 8.0 3.1

vidence RI 15.5 12.2 2.2

igh-Durham NC 14.7 14.7 9.2 5.8

mond VA 14.4 12.8 9.5 4.9

hester NY 17.0 12.3 2.6

amento CA 20.4 11.8 11.0 2.2Lake City UT 17.4 11.9 4.1

Antonio TX 17.4 7.3 10.9 5.4

Bernardino/Riverside CA 23.2 6.9 10.2 3.0

Diego CA 15.7 6.7 6.1 2.6

Francisco CA 12.4 10.9 3.5 3.3

Jose CA 18.2 16.6 4.6 3.1

tle WA 13.0 5.9 7.0 4.1

ouis MO 17.2 7.0 12.2 4.6


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ce: NAR, Reis, Inc. Office Industrial Retail Multifamiurban Maryland MD 15.7 10.9 7.9 3.9

urban Virginia VA 17.1 10.5 5.4 5.1

cuse NY 14.7 13.8 3.1

oma WA 16.6 12.9 3.3

pa-St. Petersburg FL 20.8 7.8 10.9 4.6

on AZ 16.6 9.9 5.6

a OK 16.9 16.3 5.6

tura County CA 18.1 8.7 2.6

tchester NY 18.9 8.0 2.9hita KS 16.9 14.0 3.7


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The Research Division of the National Association of REALTORS monitors andanalyzes monthly and quarterly economic indicators, including retail sales, industrial

production, producer price index, gross domestic product and employment data whic

impact commercial markets over time. In addition, the Research Division provides

several products covering commercial real estate:

Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey

Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey

Commercial Member Profile

Expectations and Market Realities in Real Estate 2014

CCIM Quarterly Market Trends

SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index

For questions or comments, please contact George Ratiu, Director, Quantitative &

Commercial Research, at [email protected].

Although the information presented in this report has been obtained from reliable

sources, NAR does not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be

incomplete. This report is for information purposes only. All opinions, assumptions an

estimates constitute NARs judgment as of the date of this publication and are subjec

to change and evolving events. Actual results may vary from forecast results.

For more information:

Copyright 2014 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. Reproduction, reprinting

retransmission in any form is prohibited without written permission. For questions regardin

this matter please e-mail [email protected].

0 New Jersey Avenue, NW Washington, DC 200012020

0.874.6500 www.REALTOR.org


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commercial real estate outlook august 2014

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