Earth System Science Partnership

IGBPIHDP

WCRPDiversitas

Water Food

Carbon

Joint Projects on Global

Sustainability

A partnership of three global environmental change programs

September 2002

Global Carbon ProjectMandate

Synthesis of knowledge of the global carbon cycle, within a coherent research framework

Coupling the biophysical and human dimensions of the global carbon cycle

Coordination of regional and national carbon programs in the context of a global effort

Anthropogenic C sources

Earth at night

1. Patterns and Variability What are the geographical and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks?

2. Processes, Controls, and Interactions What are the controls and feedback mechanisms – both anthropogenic and non-

anthropogenic – that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle on scales of years to millennia?

3. Carbon Futures What are the likely dynamics of the global carbon cycle into the future?

Global Carbon Project Science Themes

Global Carbon ProjectOperational structure

Scientific Steering Committee (15 members plus 3 co-chairs)

Executive Subcommittee of SSC

Offices (each with an executive officer, possibly shared with another program)

• Australia

• US

• Japan

• Others

Working with other projects and stakeholders

• GCP Framework document: now under community review

• Joint implementation (SCOPE, IGCO, Ocean CO2, …)

• Scientific Advisory Committee

Global Carbon ProjectImplementation

1999-2000 Community workshops (Isle sur la Sorgue; Lisbon; Durham)

Jun 2001 Prospectus published

Jul 2001 Global Change Conference (Amsterdam): SSC appointed

Dec 2001 First SSC meeting (San Francisco)

Mar 2002 Framework document released for review

Mar 2002 Sink Attribution Workshop (Canberra)

May 2002 Carbon Data Assimilation (CDAS) Workshop (Boulder)

Sep 2002 Wengen Workshop on Terrestrial C Sinks (Austria)

Aug-Nov 2002 Launch offices (Australia, US, Japan)

Nov 2002 "Biophysical and Human Influences on C cycle" Workshop (Tsukuba)

Nov 2002 Second SSC meeting (Tsukuba)

Dec 2002 Publish Framework document

Jan 2003 SCOPE-GCP Rapid Assessment of the C cycle (Brazil)

Jul 2003 START-GCP Meeting on Urbanisation and the C cycle (Boulder)

Food Systems

Given changing demands for food, how will climate change additionally affect food provision and vulnerability in different regions and among different social groups?

How might different societies and different categories of producers adapt their food systems to cope with climate change against the background of changing demand?

What would be the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of such adaptations?

GECAFS logo

Climate Change

Food Provision

Theme 1Vulnerability and

Impacts

Theme 2Adaptations

AdaptedFood Provision

Theme 3Environmental

Feedbacks

Changing Demand

Theme 3Socioeconomic

Feedbacks

Food Systems: Themes and Structure

GECAFS logo

FIRST GENERATION STUDIES:IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE

Scenarios Macro-Climatic Change

First-Order Impacts:(Regional Agro-climatic Properties)

Second-Order Impacts:(Agric. Land Suitability and Crop

Yields)

Higher-Order Impacts:(Farm and Regional Production)

GECAFS logo

Integrating Climate Impacts andFood Security Research

FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY

Capacity to cope with & recover

from CC

Climate Change:

Type, frequency & magnitude of threats

Exposure

to CC

Societal Change

Change in institutions, resource accessibility,

economic conditions, etc

RESILIENCE

Water Resources

What are the relative magnitudes of global scale changes in the global water system due to human activities and environmental factors (e.g, climate change)?

What are the main mechanisms by which human activities are affecting the global water system?

To what extent is the global water system resilient and adaptable to global change (e.g., climate change, biodiversity, economic and management changes)?

Image needed