Early warning Systems in Sudan Meteorological Authority

Ahmed M Abdel KarimSudan Meteorological Authority

Ahmed@ersad.gov.sd

Crop and RAngeland MonitoringRegional Centre for Mapping of Resources for

Development 26-30 September 2011

Nairobi Kenya

Climate • Climate and weather over Sudan is controlled by the

following weather system:• Azores anticyclone (Sahara)• St. Helena anticyclone• Siberian anticyclone• Mascarene anticyclone• The monsoon• Sudan Thermal low• The ITCZ• The Easterly Jet Stream

Winter Season (NDJF) Advancing Monsoon Season (MAM)

Rainy Season (JAS) Retreating Monsoon Season (Oct)

Seasons

Four Season are identified: 1. Winter Season (NDJF)2.Advancing Monsoon Season (MAM)3.Rainy Season (JJAS)4.Retreating Monsoon Season (Oct)5.This lead to the rainfall distribution which is

the most important element in monitoring and forecasting. JJAS is main rainy season

Monthly rainfall distribution over Sudan

July normal rainfall distribution during the base period (1971-2000) [in mm]

1. Rainy Season (JJAS)

Natural Hazards and its impact in Africa

SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 2006Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 2006

Patterns of casualties by natural hazards in WMO Regions

Volcano0.28%

Tsunami0.04%

Epidemic, famine, insects17%

Windstorm 0.5%

Earthquake1.0%

Drought80%

Flood 2%

SOURCE: Global results of the WMO SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: Country-Level DPM Survey: Maryam Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 20062006

SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 2006Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 200611

Patterns of economic losses by natural hazards in WMO Regions

Volcano0.6%

Tsunami0.3%

Epidemic, famine, insects39%

Wild Fires 1.1%

Windstorm 9%

Earthquake3%

Drought18%

Extreme Temperature

0.7%

Flood 27%

Slides 1.3%

Monitoring

Different types of report are be issued on different time scale

Agrometeorological products• Monthly Bulletin • Dekadal Bulletin• Pentad Bulletin• Climate bulletin• SAMIS (Sudan Agro-meteorological

information System)

Monthly BulletinSUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR MAY 2007 Both maximum and minimum temperatures were near to above the normal in most parts of the country during the month. The highest deviation for the maximum temperature was 3.4 ºC reported at Abu-Hamad, and the highest deviation for the minimum was 3.7ºC reported at Dongola. The extreme value for the max. temperature was 47.0ºC reported at WadI-Halfa on the 9th of the month and at Karima on the 10th of the month, while the lowest value for the minimum temperature was 20.0º C reported at WadI-Halfa on the 15th and the 19th of the month and reported at Dongola on the 14th and 18th of the month .The highest rainfall amount for the month was 177.6 mm reported at Juba. Mousa Abdelbagi COMPUTER SECTION

Monthly BulletinSTATION

DATE MAX MIN RF MAX MIN RF MAX MIN RF MAX MIN RF

1 42.0 29.2 0.0 46.0 29.5 0.0 44.2 32.7 0.0 45.0 29.5 0.0

2 42.0 29.8 0.0 44.4 30.2 0.0 41.6 29.8 0.0 45.0 27.0 0.0

3 42.0 29.0 0.0 44.0 30.3 0.0 39.5 29.0 0.0 45.2 27.7 0.0

4 39.5 28.0 0.0 43.0 29.5 0.0 42.7 29.6 0.0 42.7 29.0 0.0

5 39.5 28.0 0.0 43.5 29.5 0.0 42.5 29.4 0.0 43.3 26.5 0.0

6 40.0 25.5 0.0 44.5 26.8 0.0 44.1 29.5 0.0 44.0 27.1 0.0

7 42.0 26.0 0.0 43.0 27.5 0.0 35.4 30.2 0.0 43.2 26.0 0.0

8 43.0 30.0 0.0 43.5 25.5 0.0 38.7 31.0 0.0 44.2 26.0 0.0

9 42.4 28.5 0.0 45.0 30.4 0.0 43.2 29.6 0.0 43.5 27.5 0.0

10 38.5 27.5 0.0 44.0 29.2 0.0 43.0 29.0 0.0 41.9 26.5 0.0

11 40.0 26.0 0.0 44.2 30.5 0.0 42.7 29.8 0.0 41.8 25.5 0.0

12 42.0 26.0 0.0 42.0 31.0 0.0 43.1 29.5 0.0 42.0 25.0 0.0

13 43.0 29.0 0.0 44.2 31.5 0.0 38.8 30.5 0.0 44.3 29.7 0.0

14 41.5 29.5 0.0 43.6 31.0 0.0 40.0 29.2 0.0 42.6 32.0 0.0

15 38.0 29.0 0.0 42.0 28.6 0.0 39.6 28.7 0.0 42.0 28.6 0.0

16 37.0 25.5 0.0 41.5 27.6 0.0 38.6 28.8 0.0 40.0 26.0 0.0

17 37.0 26.5 0.0 42.0 28.0 0.0 42.8 268.0 0.0 39.5 24.5 0.0

18 37.0 25.0 0.0 42.0 27.6 0.0 39.6 27.6 0.0 38.6 24.3 0.0

19 36.0 24.5 0.0 42.0 27.5 0.0 39.9 27.0 0.0 38.3 24.3 0.0

20 38.0 24.5 0.0 43.0 28.0 0.0 38.9 28.2 0.0 41.0 24.0 0.0

21 39.5 25.6 0.0 43.5 30.0 0.0 42.0 28.5 0.0 41.8 26.6 0.0

22 38.5 27.0 0.0 44.3 31.3 0.0 37.6 28.5 0.0 41.2 26.8 0.0

23 41.0 28.5 0.0 41.5 29.5 0.0 37.8 29.0 0.0 40.0 28.3 0.0

24 41.0 29.0 0.0 43.0 30.0 0.0 38.2 28.7 0.0 42.8 31.0 0.0

25 42.5 29.0 0.0 43.8 26.0 0.0 39.9 25.8 0.0 44.0 29.6 0.0

26 43.0 29.5 0.0 43.0 26.7 0.0 40.5 26.4 0.0 44.6 27.5 0.0

27 43.0 28.0 0.0 43.0 28.0 0.0 41.3 26.7 0.0 45.0 28.0 0.0

28 45.0 26.0 0.0 44.3 26.2 0.0 40.5 27.0 0.0 44.7 29.0 0.0

29 45.0 31.3 0.0 44.0 26.5 0.0 42.1 27.0 0.0 45.5 27.6 0.0

30 42.0 28.0 0.0 42.5 24.5 0.0 37.9 27.0 0.0 44.2 28.5 0.0

31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MON 40.7 27.6 0.0 43.3 28.6 0.0 40.6 36.7 0.0 42.7 27.3 0.0

DEK1 41.1 28.2 0.0 44.1 28.8 0.0 41.5 30.0 0.0 43.8 27.3 0.0

DEK2 39.0 26.6 0.0 42.7 29.1 0.0 40.4 52.7 0.0 41.0 26.4 0.0

DEK3 42.1 28.2 0.0 43.3 27.9 0.0 39.8 27.5 0.0 43.4 28.3 0.0

higst 45.0 31.3 0.0 46.0 31.5 0.0 44.2 268.0 0.0 45.5 32.0 0.0

lowst 36.0 24.5 0.0 41.5 24.5 0.0 35.4 25.8 0.0 38.3 24.0 0.0

DATA DAILY FOR SEPTEMBER 2010

600 W-HALFA 640 ABU HAMED 641 P-SUDAN 650 DONGOLA

Dekadal Bulletin

Ten days bulletin

Period: 1-10 September 2009

Temperature Situation: Both maximum and minimum temperatures were about to above the longterm mean and last year records in most parts of the country.

Rainfall Situation:- Rainfall amounts during the dekad were below normal in most parts of the country except in Gadaref, Babanusa and Malakal. The cumulative rainfall amounts were below normal in most parts of the country except in Khartoum, W-Madani, Babanusa, and Geniena.

Outlook for the Period: 21-31 August 2009 The I.T.C.Z is expected to shift southward to latitude 16° N Moderate to heavy rains associated with thunderstorms are expected south of latitude 150N especially in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, south eastern and southern parts of the country . Along the Red Sea coast partly cloudy weather associated with slight to moderate rains and rise in temperature is expected to prevail.

Dekadal BulletinSUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY

TEN DAYS AVERAGE TEMERATURES

MAXIMUM ° C MINIMUM ° C MEAN ° C

normal 10 day deviation days> 2010 deviation normal 10 day deviation days< days< 2010 deviation mean temp days temp

STATION (1981-2010) averg 2011 from mean 35°c average from mean (1981-2010) averg 2011 from mean 15°c 18°c average from mean 2011 < 25°c

W-HALFA 39.1 38.6 -0.5 10 40.7 -2.1 25.4 23.7 -1.7 0 0 27.6 -3.9 31.1 0

DONGOLA 42.3 41.5 -0.8 10 43.4 -1.9 25.9 24.7 -1.2 0 0 28.3 -3.6 33.1 0

HAMAD 43.0 41.2 -1.9 10 43.3 -2.2 27.4 25.3 -2.1 0 0 27.9 -2.6 33.2 0

p-sudan 37.1 41.1 4.0 10 39.8 1.3 26.3 27.8 1.5 0 0 27.5 0.3 34.4 0

KARIMA 42.9 42.4 -0.5 10 43.1 -0.7 27.3 26.6 -0.7 0 0 28.4 -1.8 34.5 0

ATBARA 42.2 41.3 -0.9 10 42.0 -0.7 27.5 26.7 -0.8 0 0 27.6 -0.9 34.0 0

KHARTOUM 40.1 39.1 -1.0 9 40.3 -1.2 27.0 26.7 -0.3 0 0 27.8 -1.1 32.9 0

KASSALA 38.2 35.7 -2.5 8 37.5 -1.8 25.1 24.0 -1.2 0 0 24.5 -0.6 29.8 0

MEDANI 37.2 38.9 1.7 9 38.0 0.9 22.1 23.4 1.3 0 0 22.5 0.9 31.2 0

SENNAR 36.2 34.8 -1.4 5 36.3 -1.5 22.5 22.6 0.1 0 0 23.4 -0.8 28.7 0

ED-DUEM 37.8 35.3 -2.5 5 37.9 -2.6 25.0 24.2 -0.8 0 0 25.6 -1.4 29.7 0

KOSTI 37.7 33.0 -4.7 2 36.8 -3.8 23.7 23.2 -0.5 0 0 24.8 -1.6 28.1 0

NEW-HALFA 38.4 37.3 -1.1 10 37.6 -0.3 23.8 23.1 -0.7 0 0 23.1 0.0 30.2 0

PERIOD:- 21-30 September 2011

Dekadal BulletinSUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY

TEN DAYS AVERAGE TEMERATURES `

MAXIMUM ° C MINIMUM ° C MEAN ° C

normal 10 day deviation days> 2010 deviation normal 10 day deviation days< days< 2010 deviation mean temp days temp

STATION (1981-2010) averg 2011 from mean 35°c average from mean (1981-2010) averg 2011 from mean 15°c 18°c average from mean 2011 < 25°c

GADAREF 35.6 35.4 -0.2 5 35.3 0.1 22.3 22.6 0.3 0 0 23.0 -0.4 29.0 0

DAMAZINE 33.4 32.5 -0.9 1 34.2 -1.7 20.9 21.3 0.4 0 0 21.6 -0.4 26.9 2

A-NAAMA 34.9 31.7 -3.2 1 34.2 -2.5 22.3 22.3 0.0 0 0 21.4 0.9 27.0 1

OBEID 36.4 33.7 -2.7 2 35.9 -2.2 23.0 21.8 -1.2 0 0 23.3 -1.5 27.7 1

NAHOUD 36.4 34.3 -2.1 4 37.8 -3.5 22.9 22.1 -0.8 0 0 24.2 -2.1 28.2 0

RASHAD 32.6 28.6 -4.0 0 32.8 -4.2 20.8 19.1 -1.7 0 2 21.4 -2.3 23.9 8

BABANUSA 34.4 31.3 -3.1 0 33.8 -2.5 23.3 20.8 -2.5 0 0 23.5 -2.7 26.1 2

FASHER 35.9 34.8 -1.1 4 36.3 -1.5 22.1 23.9 1.8 0 0 23.4 0.5 29.4 2

NYALA 35.3 33.9 -1.4 3 34.8 -0.9 22.6 20.2 -2.4 0 1 20.9 -0.7 27.1 0

GENEINA 34.4 32.2 -2.2 2 34.0 -1.8 20.4 20.8 0.4 0 0 21.6 -0.8 26.5 2

KADUGLI 35.3 31.0 -4.3 0 35.0 -4.0 23 21.75 -1.3 0 0 23.2 -1.5 26.4 1

SHENDI 40.3 41.2 0.9 10 40.4 0.8 22.2 25.7 3.5 0 0 22.2 3.5 33.4 0

UMBANIEN 33.7 32.3 -1.4 1 33.4 -1.1 20.4 22.6 2.2 0 0 20.4 2.2 27.5 2

PERIOD:- 21-30 September 2011

Dekadal Bulletin

Dekadal Bulletin (WSI)

Pentad BulletinPENTAD NO 52 FOR PERIOD: 13--17 SEPT 2011

privous previous R A I N F A L L mm R A I N F A L L mmpentad pentad ANNUAL FOR THE PERIOD CUMULATIVE SINCE JANUARYnormal actual NORMAL AMOUNT last year NORMAL DEPARTUREAMOUNT last year NORMAL DEPARTUREhigest year lowest year %

6.7 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 14.8 7.3 0.0 79.0 1953 0 SEV 0

10.0 0.0 13.9 0.0 11.4 0.5 -0.5 0.0 19.6 10.5 -10.5 136.0 1950 0 SEV 0

42.9 39.2 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 39.2 17.6 43.1 -3.9 242.0 1910 0 SEV 91

19.3 1.5 85.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 24.6 19.3 -17.8 196.0 1993 0 SEV 8

214.6 121.7 235.0 0.0 11.0 5.6 -5.6 121.7 169.7 220.2 -98.5 488.0 1916 37 1990 55

240.1 235.9 249.5 20.5 9.0 3.9 16.6 256.4 316.8 244.0 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 105

563.3 377.0 610.4 43.2 56.8 11.4 31.8 420.2 605.5 574.7 -154.5 1035.0 1988 372 1990 73

105.2 40.8 120.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 -3.7 40.8 63.1 108.9 -68.1 420.0 1988 1 2000 37

259.8 134.9 286.3 0.0 0.0 6.9 -6.9 134.9 252.3 266.7 -131.8 707.0 1929 51 1984 51

233.5 158.0 244.6 31.1 36.0 1.9 29.2 189.1 279.8 235.4 -46.3 533.0 1978 51 1984 80

365.5 198.6 408.2 17.7 13.4 11.1 6.6 216.3 468.8 376.6 -160.3 793.0 2007 114 1984 57

312.2 264.7 330.2 0.0 12.0 6.9 -6.9 264.7 316.9 319.1 -54.4 723.0 2007 96 2007 83

529.9 400.9 584.9 52.5 8.5 10.4 42.1 453.4 727.8 540.3 -86.9 994.0 1994 354 1994 84

564.8 491.2 692.1 20.7 32.8 20.4 0.3 511.9 590.5 585.2 -73.3 906.0 1994 362 1978 87

333.6 292.9 348.8 28.0 13.6 4.0 24.0 320.9 358.4 337.6 -16.7 368.0 2007 171 1990 95

305.0 440.2 349.6 6.4 4.5 13.7 -7.3 446.6 270.9 318.7 127.9 747.0 2007 127 1913 140

366.9 317.8 501.1 1.0 0.4 24.4 -23.4 318.8 374.0 391.3 -72.5 720.0 1988 225 1974 81

521.1 518.0 656.3 95.0 39.5 19.3 75.7 613.0 760.5 540.4 72.6 N/N N/A N/A N/A 113

536.8 504.2 687.7 0.0 1.0 25.6 -25.6 504.2 562.1 562.4 -58.2 1041.0 1950 425 2000 90

332.7 447.4 430.9 31.0 26.2 17.2 13.8 478.4 468.1 349.9 128.5 849.0 1934 67 1984 137

178.1 113.7 193.3 11.1 7.8 5.8 5.3 124.8 206.3 183.9 -59.1 717.0 1954 90 2004 68

326.3 423.0 383.4 14.8 42.7 12.5 2.3 437.8 314.2 338.8 99.0 840.0 1922 14 2002 129

En Nahud

Babanusa

Rashad

Kadugli

STATES/STATIONS

SUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY COMPUTER CENTRE

HIGEST &LOWEST RAINFALL

Kosti

Abu Naama

El Fasher

Nyala

Darfur

Damazine

Kordofan

Obied

Geneina

Khartoum

Khartoum

Central

Wad Medani

Ed Duiem

Sennar

Gedaref

Northern

Dongola

Karima

Atbara

Eastern

Port Sudan

Kassla

N-halfa

Pentad Bulletin

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

The Departure (in mm)of the Cumulative Rainfall from Normal

Pentad No 46 for period(14-18)August 2006

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22 W HF

ABH PSDDNG

KRM

HLG

ATB

KHT KSL

DUMW DM

GDFFSH SNRGEN

BNS

OBD KSTNHD

NYLABN

RNKRHD DMZ

KDG

MLK

W AU

JUB

-180

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

25

The Dekad rainfall report

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

R A I N F A L L D E K A D A L F O R P E R I O D 1 - 1 0 A U G U S T

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

P S DD N G

K R M

H L G

A T B

K H T K S L

D U MW D M

G D FF S H S N RG E N

B N S

O B D K S TN H D

N Y LA B N

R N KR H D D M Z

K D G

M L K

W A U

J U B

- 1 8 0

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 0

- 9 0

- 6 0

- 3 0

0

3 0

6 0

9 0

1 2 0

22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

W DH

DNGABH PSN

KRM

ATB

KHR KSL

W MD

SNR

DUM

KST

nhf

shn

bnu

GDF

DZM

ABU

OBD

NHD

RSH

bns

FSH

NYL

GEN

RNK

MAL

KDG

W AU

JUB -1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

M in Tem p (D ev Last Year)

22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

WDH

DNGABH PSN

KRM

ATB

KHR KSL

WMD

SNR

DUM

KST

nhf

shn

bnu

GDF

DZM

ABU

OBD

NHD

RSH

bns

FSH

NYL

GEN

RNK

MAL

KDG

WAU

JUB

-1 .2

-0.8

-0.4

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

M in. Tem p (Dev Norm al)

Sudan Agro-Meteorological Information System (SAMIS ):Is an operational system for the production of agro-meteorological information from meteorological station and satellite data, installed at the Sudan Meteorological Authority.

SAMIS plays a fundamental role as the provider of core information for early warning and vulnerability assessment and mapping activities. It also enables the SMA to fulfill its role of providing agro-meteorological information for users involved in the monitoring and management of agricultural, environmental and hydrological resources.

SAMIS products• Dekadal Rainfall Amounts• Dekadal Rainfall Anomaly (ratio against climatology)• Cumulative Rainfall from March to current dekadal• Cumulative Rainfall Anomaly (ratio against climatology)• Dekadal Number of Rain Days • Length of Currently Active Dry Spell (maximum over

30days) • Vegetation Index • Vegetation Index Difference from long term mean • Monthly Rainfall • Monthly Rainfall Anomaly • Monthly Number of Rain Days

SAMIS report

31

Rainfall Analysis – 10 Day Amounts•10 day rainfall amounts produced by SAMIS at SMA are based on a combination of METEOSAT satellite and synoptic gauge data. •Rainfall climatology is similarly derived from a combination of historical data from the two sources.

32

•Rainfall Analysis – Cumulative Amounts•Cumulative amounts are obtained by summing the dekadal estimates starting from Dekad 1 of March until present. •The climatological cumulative are likewise derived by summing the dekadal climatological estimates over the same period of time.

33

The cumulative rainfall amounts display the usual organization in latitude bands (as the rainfall moves north following the ITCZ).

In relative terms, significant above average departures

34

The rainfall total for the dekadal and its departure for the Same period

The rainfall total for the dekadal and its departure for the Same period

SAMIS is at http://ersad.gov.sd

Rainfall AS Parentage of Average

Cumulative Rainfall as % of Average

Total Rainfall

Dekads Since Start of Growing Season

Number of Wet Dekads

Moisture Index

End of Growing Season

Location Analysis: RVT Plots

Rainfall and Vegetation Plots

Start of Green Up

End of Rainfall Season

Planting Rains

Rainfall and Vegetation Plots

Seasonal Forecast

Prediction

Numerical Weather Prediction Models

22 August 2010

23 August 2010

24 August 2010

25 August 2010

26 August 2010

The monthly seasonal rainfall outlook

Seasonal forecast outlook fro the rainfall for JJAS 2010

ANB

• Three stations is understudy to predict the PET.• Kosti, Fashir and Damzine • The following graph show the inverse relations with

the PET and the rainfall.• The months for the PET is taken (July, Aug and

September)• The month of the SST is April• When the PET is positive ==== Dry • When the PET is negative ==== Wet

On the study to predict Drought using the SST

The monthly average PET for Kosti

PET Anomalies for Kosti

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

RF

PET_KST_act

PET_KST_frc

PET Actual vs Forecast (Ksoti)

Tricle Tableyear PET_KST_actPET_KST_frcRF

1999 -1.24 -1.71 0.471995 -0.87 -1.55 -0.881998 -1.02 -1.14 0.011994 -1.32 -1.08 0.282009 -0.88 -1.792002 -1.17 -0.87 0.191992 -0.95 -0.87 -0.862004 -0.06 -0.86 -0.712003 -0.95 -0.85 1.711967 -0.80 -0.74 0.611997 -0.72 -0.71 -0.262008 -0.69 -1.792000 0.31 -0.54 0.311991 -0.28 -0.53 0.362001 -1.09 -0.48 -0.012005 -0.43 0.341988 -1.46 -0.34 0.211993 -1.39 -0.34 1.261986 -0.13 -0.28 -0.302006 -0.26 0.631989 -0.58 -0.26 0.151984 1.42 -0.12 -1.361965 0.76 -0.10 0.331985 -0.65 -0.06 0.461961 0.31 -0.05 1.312011 -0.041975 0.09 -0.04 0.942010 -0.02 0.021968 -0.72 0.01 -0.121962 1.05 0.03 0.291977 0.17 0.04 0.391974 0.02 0.09 -0.142007 0.09 1.221996 -0.95 0.11 0.491983 1.65 0.14 -0.461976 0.98 0.16 -0.151987 0.02 0.24 -1.631982 0.98 0.25 -0.121980 -0.72 0.30 0.221990 1.87 0.32 -0.661981 0.09 0.38 0.171971 0.83 0.43 0.281978 0.68 0.60 0.321972 0.61 0.76 0.311973 2.02 0.78 0.371966 1.94 1.02 -0.251963 1.42 1.13 0.051979 0.54 1.19 -0.171964 0.83 1.30 0.021969 1.65 1.32 0.181970 1.42 1.60 -0.27

NDVI prediction using SST

• MethodologyNDVI images from 1982-2003 were processed, by extracting the maximum NDVI for each of the years

This maximum NDVI is an indicator of vegetation seasonal development

Values were extracted at the synoptic station locations generating an NDVI time series (22 elements) for each

Anomalies were then computed for each station

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

1 9 8 4 R a i n f a l l

N D V I f o r t h e 1 9 8 4

Rainfall NDVI max1984( dry)

22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

KHR KSL

DU MW DM

G DFSNR

KSTABU

D ZM

M AL

FSHG ENO BD

NH DNYL RSH

KDG

W AU

JUB

-1.4

-0.9

-0.4

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

N D VI prediction for the year 1984

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

R a i n f a l l N D V I

Rainfall NDVI max1990( Dry)

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

KH R KSL

D UMW D M

G D FSN R

KSTABU

DZM

M AL

FSHG ENO BD

NH DNYL R SH

KD G

W AU

JU B

-1.4

-0.9

-0.4

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

ND VI prediction for the year 1990

Rainfall year 1999 (wet year) NDVI

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

-2.8

-2.4

-2-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

00.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

22.4

2.8

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

KH R KSL

D UMW D M

G D FSN R

KSTABU

DZM

M AL

FSHG ENO BD

NH DNYL R SH

KD G

W AU

JU B

-1.4

-0.9

-0.4

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

N D VI prediction for the year 1999

Rainfall

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

-2.8

-2.4

-2 -1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0 0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 2.4

2.8

NDVI max2003( wet)

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

KH R KSL

D U MW D M

G D FSN R

KSTABU

D ZM

M AL

FSHG ENO BD

N H DN YL R SH

KD G

W AU

JU B

-1.4

-0.9

-0.4

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

N D VI prediction for the year 2003

Recommendations• Forecasting rainfall in different time

scales (monthly, dekadal) . • Prediction element other than

rainfall must be introduced to be used as indicator as (NDVI and PET) to predict drought.

• Joint research