Tsunami Early Warning System:SOPs and Communication Strategies

Initiatives byPakistan Meteorological Department

presenterZahid Rafi

Dated: 08 Oct, 2009Conference on working together for disaster risk reduction

Contents

• Mechanism of tsunami generation and propagation

• Pakistan tsunami hazards and risk• Establishment of Seismic Monitoring Network• Development of tsunami warning centers.• End To End tsunami warning and emergency

response.• Timeline and SOPs for TWCs. • Tsunami warning systems and support tools

TSUNAMI GENERATION MECHANISM AND PROPAGATION

• Large earthquakes along subduction zones in sea can generate tsunami

• These subduction zones are along boundaries of tectonic plates

• Largest earthquakes have taken place along these subduction zones.

• A general criteria for tsunami generation is:M>7.5Depth < 50km

Tectonic Plates and Subduction zones

Well known subduction zone Magnitude > 8.5 Sumatra - Andaman zone

History of tsunami along Indo-Pak Coast line

• November 326 BC earthquake near the Indus delta /Kutch region that set off massive sea waves in the Arabian Sea

• The arrival of Vascude Gama’s in 1524 coincided with a violent sea quake and tsunami that caused alarm at Debul and Portuguese port.

• 16 June 1819 Rann of Kuchch earthquake M 7.7, A tsunami from Arabian sea Surged across the Rann of Kuch.• 1845 June 19, India, Kutch. “The sea rolled up the Koree • In Arabian Sea Magnitude 8.2 earthquake (Makran

Earthquake (1945) caused a tsunami along coastal areas of Pakistan and India.Over 4000 deaths estimated

Up Gradation and Strengtheningof

Seismic Monitoring Network:A basic Component

forTsunami Early Warning System

Communication System

Projects for Strengtheningof

Tsunami Early Warning SystemSupported by

UNESCO/IOC

• Three Tide Gauge Systems for Ormara, Gwadar and Keti Bandar

• Satellite Communication System for data transmission• Establishment of Broadcast Centre for Mass Media at PMD

Islamabad.• Data Acquisition and Analysis System at central station

Karachi.• Development of Area Specific Tsunami propagation and

inundation model.• Soft Component: Tsunami and coast disaster risk reduction and preparedness at

the community level.

Project Details

Tsunami Hazard Map for PakistanSupported by

Asian Disaster Reduction Centre (ADRC), JapanObjectives:Objectives:Preparation of Tsunami Hazard Map Preparation of Tsunami Hazard Map Community Risk Awareness programCommunity Risk Awareness programTo enhance the capacity to train local experts.To enhance the capacity to train local experts.To identify the problems and improve the tsunami To identify the problems and improve the tsunami warning systemwarning system

SeisComP3 System

Global: Earthquake: Monitoring: Processing: Analysis

Map Showing Locations of Seismic Stations

Real Time Wave-form Data

GUITAR(Decision Making Tool)

Strategy: Standard Operating Procedure for

Issuance of Tsunami warning

Sr. No Time (Min) Activity ACTION COMMUNICATION

1 00 EARTHQUAKE ALERT Duty staff Alert each person at disk. Each of the shift duty person is clearly defined of their work.

2 05EARTHQUAKE AND / ORTSUNAMI BULLETIN NO-1(Preliminary analysis)

Use criteria for evaluation of Tsunami threat which includes magnitude location depth etc1- If below threshold Earthquake bulletin2- In case of crossing threshold Tsunami Advisory

One staff member deputed to communicate the bulletin to the agencies NDMA, NAVY, KPT, MSA, MEDIA etc.

Magnitude ≥ 7.5Depth < 50 KmLocation in between Latitude 22oN and aboveLongitude 55oE to 80oE

3 06 Tide gauge data would be received from tide gauge network.

This data will be used for confirmation of tsunami generation or otherwise.

4 08 1- Re-evaluation of Parameters starts before issuance of 2nd bulletin.2- Tsunami travel time estimation starts.

Duty personal are deputed to compute the revised earthquake parameters. Based on revised parameters 2nd bulletin will be for confirmation or cancellation.One person is assigned special task to calculate the time to reach shoreline using tables accounting for location depth and magnitude criteria.

NATIONAL SEISMIC MONITORING AND TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERPAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURESREGIONAL/ LOCAL TSUNAMI

4 08 1- Reevaluation of Parameters starts before issuance of 2nd bulletin.2- Tsunami travel time estimation starts.

Duty personal are deputed to compute the revised earthquake parameters. Based on revised parameters 2nd bulletin will be for confirmation or cancellation.One person is assigned special task to calculate the time to reach shoreline using tables accounting for location depth and magnitude criteria.

5 10 Tsunami bulletin No-02 (Alert)Annex-4(A)and Annex -5Or(Cancellation)

Automatic evaluation is revised and bulletin is issued. If parameters are above threshold level warning will be issued. As impact time is calculated above this bulletin defines impact time for all coastal cities.If Parameters are not satisfying the threshold value a cancellation of the Tsunami Bulletin will be issued

Communicated to all agencies with clear message about warning and time of impact.

6 12 1. Numerical models2. Sea level data

Numerical models are developed with pre-planned scenarios in order to compute arrival time.Continuous monitoring of sea level data obtained from tide gauge network.

14 Decision making for the issuance of Tsunami bulletin No-03

Revised magnitude, Depth, Location, Focal parameters are combined with sea level data to make decision about upgrading or downgrading the warning.

Careful study of all the available parameters will enable the duty seismologist to make this decision of Upgradation or downgrading or even cancellation of the Tsunami Bulletin No-02

7 15 Tsunami bulletin No-03(Warning)Annex-5

Contains the data of wave arrival time based upon tide gauge data and numerical models.

ToAll agenciesDG Met briefed about the situation and revised parameters or cancellation

Contd…

Earthquake & Tsunami Disaster in Pakistan

(A Research Study)

The study area was divided into 19 zones in which 1 to 15 are seismic zones, 16 to 18 are faults zones and zone 19 is exclusively for Rann of Kachch (Allah Band fault)

Makran Subduction zone

Extended portion of compression zone

Allah Band

Murray Ridge

Kirther Ranges

Pab & Ornach faults

Seismotectonic of the study area

Murray Ridge

MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHTS ALONG the COAST

Time (S)

Time (S)

Time (S)

Time (S)

Tsunami Time Line Map

Travel Times & Heights ObservationPoints

Latitude(N)

Longitude(E)

ArrivalTime (Sec)

TsunamiHeight (m)

Karachi 67.14 24.6 7200 2.8

Ormara 64.65 25.1 2200 9.3

Pasni 63.38 25.2 2900 8.5

Gwadar 62.33 25.1 1550 8.8

Jiwani 61.86 24.9 1100 8.9