dukascopy market research.pdf

7/28/2019 Dukascopy market research.pdf

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Market Research

21/01/2013

EUR


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Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMTDominant Events for the Euro

Yellow Area

January 14

06:00 - 16:00

Eurozone Industrial

Producon [link]

Chicago FedPresident Speech

[link]

Turquoise Area

January 15

01:00 - 21:00

U.K. CPI [link]

Eurozone Trade

Balance [link]

U.S. Retail Sales

[link]

U.S. PPI [link]

Blue Area

January 16

06:00 - 16:00

Japanese

Consumer

Condence [link]

Swiss Retail Sales

[link]

Eurozone CPI [link]

U.S. CPI [link]

Purple Area

January 17

07:00 - 19:00

Swiss PPI [link]

U.S. Housing Starts

[link]

U.S.

Unemployment

Claims [link]

U.S. Philly Fed

Manufacturing

Index[link]

Orange Area

January 18

07:00 - 17:00

Japanese Industrial

Producon [link]

U.K. Retail Sales[link]

U.S. UoM

Consumer

Senment[link]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/mailto:[email protected]


3/8

Relative Currency Strength


Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMT

Currency Index Change

Days EUR USD JPY GBP CHF AUD CAD SEK NZD5 0.44% 0.96% 0.07% -1.06% -1.71% 0.69% 0.08% -0.22% 0.78%

20 1.69% 1.53% -6.92% -1.48% -1.49% 1.85% 1.20% 1.10% 1.80%130 7.42% -1.43% -16.89% -0.25% 3.45% -0.67% 0.28% 5.09% 2.89%

Ap

preciaon

Base

De

preciaon

Yens precipitous depreciaon has created a

favourable for the Euros value environment,

being that demand for the single European

currency was also spurred by a successful bond

aucon in Spain and an increased chance of

Portugal returning back to open internaonal

debt market. However, the other majorcurrencies remained impervious to these events

and traded sideways during the whole week.

Surprisingly, even U.S. unemployment claims and

building permits failed to evoke strong changes in

exchange rates that remained relavely sll. The

only notable event was a detachment process of

the Euro and Swiss Franc values, lower

correlaon between which is expected to become

a new characterisc of the market.

ECBs decision not to encourage lending in the

Eurozone by keeping the key interest rate unchangedhas lost its relevance over the weekend. The Euro

thus slowly weakened amid soer data on the bloc,

while the market was awaing another strong signal,

absence of which accounts for a standsll unl Jan

17. The consolidaon phase of the prices was then

disturbed by corroboraon of the implied by the

Japanese PM easing measures, announcement of

which is most likely to take place during the nearest

publicaon of the BoJ monetary policy statement on

Jan 22.
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4/8

Volatility


Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMT

Elevated Volality (% of the observed period)Market EUR/

USDUSD/

JPYGBP/

USDAUD/

USDUSD/

CADUSD/

CHFEUR/

JPYEUR/

GBPEUR/

CHFUSD/

SEKNZD/

USD55 43 60 42 30 17 61 66 37 92 33 25

Market EUR/USD

USD/

JPYGBP/

USDAUD/

USDUSD/

CADUSD/

CHFEUR/

JPYEUR/

GBPEUR/

CHFUSD/

SEKNZD/

USDMax 1.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 2 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 4.3 2 3.9Min 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4

Average 1 1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 2 0.9 0.9

Volality Index (for the observed period)

Turbulent

Normal

Tr

anquil

Among the currency pairs studied we may spot a

strong polarizaon in terms of sensivity to

dierent events, since USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/

JPY and EUR/CHF were turbulent for more than a

half of the me. However, the rest of the

constuent of the DBVI remained more or less

tranquil, without constantly exceeding theirnormal pace of change.

The highest volality comparavely to its

historical changeability was demonstrated by

EUR/CHF, surpassing it 4.3 mes. However, the

second more responsive currency pair proved to

be NZD/USD, as New Zealand GDP gure released

on Jan 17 has missed expectaons.

Previously we have marked the similaries of

volalies in the market and in EUR/USD currencypair, as their peaks, troughs and general levels

largely coincided in the past, something that has not

been observed in the last week. The changeability

and therefore the range of EUR/USDs volality index

has greatly increased, with the most recent

maximum and minimum values being 2.8 and 0.4,

respecvely, whereas the same measures of

Dukascopy Bank Volality Index were 1.6 and 0.4,

even though the averages were exactly the same1.

This could be aributed to the fact that the Euro hasnow lost its inuence on the Swiss Franc and EUR/

USD is no longer a reliable proxy to markets

variability.


5/8


Currency SignificanceMonday, January 21, 2013

16:30 GMT

Days EURJPY EURGBP EURCHF EURAUD EURCAD EURNZD EURSEK5 0.73 0.63 0.39 0.75 0.85 0.54 0.32

20 0.67 0.65 0.27 0.69 0.78 0.45 0.27130 0.74 0.67 0.27 0.5 0.68 0.39 0.12

Average Correlaon Coecient (with EURUSD)

One of the tendencies that have been observed

lately is the sharply rising interdependences

between EUR/USD and EUR crosses with

commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD),

which were already signicant before, but now

are even of a greater weight and concern to those

who seek to reduce risk but at the same meremain exposed to the Euro. The similar trend is

observed among all of the EUR crosses, but to a

considerably smaller extent. Accordingly, these

currency pairs provide more modest benets of

diversicaon than they formerly did. The lowest

average 50-hour rolling correlaon was recorded

between EUR/JPY and EUR/SEK0.12.

As indicated by the average correlaon coecient,

the importance of the Euro has been declining fromthe elevated levels, but managed to stay near 0.4

with mixed success. Consequently, the currency is

highly unlikely to exhibit the impact of the same

strength seen on Jan 10 and Jan 11, but is

nevertheless inuenal in the context of the foreign

exchange market. This is especially noceable in

EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD currency pairs that

historically have been closely linked to EUR/USD.


6/8


Confidence Intervals for Next 24 HoursMonday, January 21, 2013

16:30 GMT


7/8Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

Interquarle Range

Median

Relave Density

ValuesofObservatons

Violin PlotViolin Plot is a combinaon of a Box Plot

and rotated Kernel Density Plot

EXPLANATIONS

MethodologiesVolality Index

Condence Interval
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8/8Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

DisclaimerEverything in this arcle, including opinions and gures, is provided for informaonal purposes only and may not be interpreted as nancial advice or solicitaon of

products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this arcle. Financial gures indicated in this

arcle have not been veried by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the arcle, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy

group.

Dukascopy group waive any and all warranes, express or implied, regarding, but without limitaon to, warranes of the merchantability or the tness for aparcular purpose, with respect to all informaon in this arcle. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequenal,

conngent or any other damages sustained in connecon with the use of this arcle.

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