dublin unified school district project prioritization measure h · 2019-05-28 · bond program...

Dublin Unified School District

Project Prioritization

Measure H

August 22, 20171

Presentation Overview

Davis Demographics Growth Projection

Enrollment vs. Capacity Analysis

Measure H Proposed Allocation

Measure H Bond Program - KNN

2

+352

+30

+883

+167

-18

+592

+641

Net K-5 Growth over the next 7 years =+2,647

Through 2023-24 SY 3

+782

+880

Net 6-8 Growth over the next 7 years = +1,662

Through 2023-24 SY4

+1979

Net 9-12 Growth over the next 7 years = +1,979

Through 2023-24 SY5

Actual Fall

2017

Projected

Oct. 2017

Projected Fall

2018

Projected Fall

2019

Projected Fall

2020

Projected Fall

2021

Projected Fall

2022

Projected Fall

2023

CAPACITY

Capacity Before Adjustments 6,057 6,357 6,332 7,052 7,052 7,052 7,052 7,052

Board Approved Capacity Adjustment

Cottonwood Creek - K-8 720

Murray Elementary School 150

John Dougherty Elementary School 150

Net Capacity 2 Flex Spaces 6,357 6,357 7,052 7,052 7,052 7,052 7,052 7,052

ENROLLMENT

Davis Demographics Projection 5,824 6,343 7,093 7,550 7,890 8,190 8,432 8,458

Under/<Over> Capacity 533 14 (41) (498) (838) (1138) (1380) (1406)

Class Loading 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

# of Classroom Needed 21 1 (2) (20) (34) (46) (55) (56)

Notes:

Davis Demographics enrollment projections includes 106 out of District students every year

Actual Fall 2017 5,824: As of August 17, 2017


DK-5 Enrollment vs Capacity Comparison

August 22, 2017

6

Actual Fall

2017

Projected

Oct. 2017

Projected Fall

2018

Projected Fall

2019

Projected Fall

2020

Projected Fall

2021

Projected Fall

2022

Projected Fall

2023

CAPACITY


Board Approved Capacity Adjustment

Cottonwood Creek - K-8 360

Total Capacity 2,830 2,830 3,190 3,190 3,190 3,190 3,190 3,190

ENROLLMENT


Under/<Over> Capacity 271 115 164 (150) (281) (488) (634) (889)

Class Loading 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5

# of Classroom Needed 10 4 6 (5) (10) (18) (23) (32)

Notes:

Davis Demographics enrollment projections includes 55 out of District students every year



Middle School Enrollment vs Capacity Comparison

August 22, 2017

7

Actual Fall

2017

Projected

Oct. 2017

Projected

2018

Projected

2019

Projected

2020

Projected

2021

Projected

2022

Projected

2023

CAPACITY


Board Approved Capacity Adjustments

Dublin High School Housing Interim A 350

Dublin High School Housing Interim B 250

Dublin High School Science/Eng. 420

Total Capacity 3,180 3,180 3,180 3,180 3,600 3,850 3,850 3,850

ENROLLMENT


Under/<Over> Capacity 360 324 (2) (218) (86) (90) (447) (687)

Class Loading 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5

# of Classroom Needed 13 12 (0) (8) (3) (3) (16) (25)

Notes:

Davis Demographics enrollment projections includes 85 out of District students every year.



High School Enrollment vs Capacity Comparison

August 22, 2017

8

Measure H Bond Program August 22, 2017

Bond Program Overview

10

The District voters have authorized 5 bond measures for a total of $605.5 million.

All bonds authorized under the 1988,1993 and 2004 measures have been issued.

Measure E and H have $26,000,000 and $223,000,000 unissued authorization,

respectively.

Measure Election DateVoter Approval

Rate

Authorization

Amount

Authorized but

Unissued

Election of 1988 November 1988 73.30% $3,500,000 -

Election of 1993 (Measure A) June 1993 79.30% $36,000,000 -

Election of 2004 (Measure C) November 2004 73.20% $184,000,000 -

Election of 2012 (Measure E) June 2012 62.02% $99,000,000 $26,000,000*

Election of 2016 (Measure H) June 2016 60.19% $283,000,000 $223,000,000

Total $605,500,000 $249,000,000

*Authorized but unissued amounts include money required to repay outstanding Bond Anticipation Note.

Debt Summary

11

Series Issue Date Par Amount Final Maturity Outstanding Par Call Feature

Election of 2004

Series D (CABs) 10/21/2009 $9,235,858 8/1/2034 $9,235,858 8/1/2019

Series E (CABs) 10/21/2009 $26,763,908 8/1/2044 $26,763,908 8/1/2019

Series F 4/27/2016 $43,500,000 8/1/2025 $43,360,000 8/1/2026

Total Measure C Outstanding $79,359,766

Election of 2012

Series A 3/21/2013 $32,380,000 8/1/2043 $28,680,000 8/1/2023

BAN 2/11/2014 $25,000,000 2/1/2019 $25,000,000* Non-callable

Series B 4/21/2015 $40,620,000 8/1/2045 $40,620,000 8/1/2024

Total Measure E Outstanding $69,300,000

Election of 2016

Series A 11/23/2016 $60,000,000 8/1/2046 $60,000,000 8/1/2026

Total Measure H Outstanding $60,000,000

Refundings

2010 Refunding (Election of 1993) 11/3/2010 $16,470,000 8/1/2021 $5,530,000 Non-callable

2012 Refunding (Election of 2004) 11/2/2012 $30,085,000 8/1/2029 $24,585,000 8/1/2022

2013 Refunding (Election of 1993) 11/26/2013 $17,255,000 8/1/2023 $13,875,000 Non-callable



Total Refundings Outstanding $103,435,000

Total Bond Outstanding $312,094,766

* BAN amount is excluded from the total outstanding par

District Assessed Valuation

12Source: California Municipal Statistics

Fiscal

Year

Total Assessed

Value% Change

1993-94 1,533,050,385 ~

1994-95 1,566,734,142 2.20%

1995-96 1,570,413,450 0.23%

1996-97 1,619,391,735 3.12%

1997-98 1,700,597,702 5.01%

1998-99 1,944,840,715 14.36%

1999-00 2,355,930,028 21.14%

2000-01 3,028,176,735 28.53%

2001-02 3,767,582,972 24.42%

2002-03 4,353,569,810 15.55%

2003-04 4,900,489,382 12.56%

2004-05 5,505,303,901 12.34%

2005-06 6,312,283,071 14.66%

2006-07 7,405,985,545 17.33%

2007-08 8,198,148,296 10.70%

2008-09 8,606,952,302 4.99%

2009-10 8,345,686,930 -3.04%

2010-11 8,194,714,097 -1.81%

2011-12 8,365,703,833 2.09%

2012-13 8,792,909,514 5.11%

2013-14 9,645,453,166 9.70%

2014-15 11,116,721,540 15.25%

2015-16 12,600,073,069 13.34%

2016-17 13,746,609,425 9.10%

2017-18* 14,804,967,839 7.70%

Compounded Annual Growth Rate

5 - Year 10.98%

10 - Year 6.09%

15 - Year 8.55%

20 - Year 11.43%

The District’s preliminary 2017-18 assessed valuation (as provided by the County of

Alameda) is approximately $14.8 billion, a 7.7% growth from the prior year.

* Preliminary assessed valuation number provided by the County of Alameda

$1.53

$1.57

$1.57

$1.62

$1.70

$1.94

$2.36

$3.03

$3.77

$4.35

$4.90

$5.51

$6.31

$7.41

$8.20

$8.61

$8.35

$8.19

$8.37

$8.79

$9.65

$11.12 $12.60

$13.75

$14.80

2.20% 0.23%3.12%

5.01%

14.36%

21.14%

28.53%

24.42%

15.55%

12.56%12.34%

14.66%17.33%

10.70%

4.99%

-3.04%-1.81%

2.09%

5.11%

9.70%

15.25%13.34%

9.10%7.70%

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Tota

l Ass

ess

ed

Val

ue

($

Bill

ion

s)

Bonding Capacity

13

The California Education Code provides that a unified school district cannot issue

bonds if doing so causes the overall amount of bonds outstanding to exceed 2.5%

of its current assessed value.

The District’s remaining bonding capacity for fiscal year 2017-18 is approximately

$32 million.

The District’s bonding capacity will increase based on future Assessed Valuation

(AV) growth and repayment of existing bond principal.

Total Assessed Valuation (FY 2017-18)(1) $14,804,967,839

Bonding Capacity % (Ed. Code 15334.5) 2.50%

Total Statutory Bonding Capacity $370,124,196

Less: Capacity for BAN Repayment ($26,000,000)

Bonds Outstanding ($312,094,766)

Remaining Bonding Capacity $32,029,430

(1)Preliminary assessed valuation numbers provided by the County of Alameda.

2017 Bonding Capacity Waiver

14

Section 33050 of the Education Code allows the State Board of Education (“SBE”) to

waive any provisions of the Education Code following a public hearing on the matter.

The District has applied for a bonding capacity waiver which is on the agenda for the

September 13 – 14 SBE Board meeting.

The proposed 2017 bonding capacity waiver includes the following parameters:

Up to 3.10% bonding capacity.

Waiver expires on June 30, 2023.

Conservative 2.00% assessed valuation growth.

Provides ability to access $100 million of Measure H authorization in 2017.

This waiver will allow the District to proceed with Measure H financing throughout the

life of the program.

Estimated Total Assessed Valuation (FY 2017-18)(1) $14,804,967,839

Bonding Capacity Waiver (Ed. Code 15334.5) 3.10%

Total Bonding Capacity (3.10% of Total AV) $458,954,003

Less: Capacity for BAN Repayment ($26,000,000)

Less: Bonds Outstanding ($312,094,766)

Remaining Bonding Capacity $120,859,237

(1)Preliminary number provided by the County of Alameda

Bonding Capacity Waiver Analysis

15

Fiscal Year

Ending (FYE)

Par

Outstanding

Election of 2016

Series B (100 million)

Total Outstanding

Par* AV AV Growth

Bonding Capacity

@ 2.50%

Bonding Capacity less

outstanding Par

Outstanding Par

as a % of AV

2018 318,515,415 100,000,000 418,515,415 14,021,541,614 2.00% 350,538,540 (67,976,874.41) 2.985%

2019 338,094,766 100,000,000 438,094,766 14,301,972,446 2.00% 357,549,311 (80,545,455.11) 3.063%

2020 297,284,766 100,000,000 397,284,766 14,588,011,895 2.00% 364,700,297 (32,584,468.88) 2.723%

2021 283,179,766 99,900,000 383,079,766 14,879,772,133 2.00% 371,994,303 (11,085,462.94) 2.575%

2022 274,729,766 97,240,000 371,969,766 15,177,367,575 2.00% 379,434,189 7,464,423.13 2.451%

2023 265,299,766 94,055,000 449,354,766 * 15,480,914,927 2.00% 387,022,873 (62,331,893.08) 2.903%

2024 256,083,078 90,255,000 346,338,078 15,790,533,225 2.00% 394,763,331 48,425,252.18 2.193%

2025 247,818,195 90,255,000 338,073,195 16,106,343,890 2.00% 402,658,597 64,585,401.84 2.099%

2026 240,285,125 90,255,000 363,540,125 * 16,428,470,768 2.00% 410,711,769 47,171,643.89 2.213%

2027 231,864,080 90,255,000 322,119,080 16,757,040,183 2.00% 418,926,005 96,806,924.62 1.922%

2028 222,319,571 90,255,000 312,574,571 17,092,180,987 2.00% 427,304,525 114,729,954.11 1.829%

2029 212,121,078 90,255,000 302,376,078 17,434,024,606 2.00% 435,850,615 133,474,537.06 1.734%

2030 202,113,561 90,125,000 292,238,561 17,782,705,098 2.00% 444,567,627 152,329,066.11 1.643%

2031 191,298,569 89,755,000 281,053,569 18,138,359,200 2.00% 453,458,980 172,405,411.46 1.549%

2032 183,876,363 89,115,000 272,991,363 18,501,126,384 2.00% 462,528,160 189,536,796.81 1.476%

2033 170,457,474 88,180,000 258,637,474 18,871,148,912 2.00% 471,778,723 213,141,248.50 1.371%

2034 166,457,958 86,925,000 253,382,958 19,248,571,890 2.00% 481,214,297 227,831,339.46 1.316%

2035 159,363,378 85,315,000 244,678,378 19,633,543,328 2.00% 490,838,583 246,160,205.40 1.246%

2036 151,571,491 83,320,000 234,891,491 20,026,214,195 2.00% 500,655,355 265,763,864.07 1.173%

2037 142,538,990 80,900,000 223,438,990 20,426,738,479 2.00% 510,668,462 287,229,471.62 1.094%

2038 126,982,518 78,020,000 205,002,518 20,835,273,248 2.00% 520,881,831 315,879,313.65 0.984%

2039 120,229,992 74,645,000 194,874,992 21,251,978,713 2.00% 531,299,468 336,424,476.23 0.917%

2040 106,640,842 70,730,000 177,370,842 21,677,018,287 2.00% 541,925,457 364,554,615.39 0.818%

2041 86,074,497 66,225,000 152,299,497 22,110,558,653 2.00% 552,763,966 400,464,468.88 0.689%

2042 73,940,120 61,080,000 135,020,120 22,552,769,826 2.00% 563,819,246 428,799,125.81 0.599%

2043 54,482,481 55,245,000 109,727,481 23,003,825,223 2.00% 575,095,631 465,368,149.27 0.477%

2044 43,077,607 48,665,000 91,742,607 23,463,901,727 2.00% 586,597,543 494,854,936.53 0.391%

2045 30,847,577 41,275,000 72,122,577 23,933,179,762 2.00% 598,329,494 526,206,917.39 0.301%

2046 17,710,000 33,010,000 50,720,000 24,411,843,357 2.00% 610,296,084 559,576,083.92 0.208%

2047 5,165,000 23,805,000 28,970,000 24,900,080,224 2.00% 622,502,006 593,532,005.60 0.116%

2048 - 13,580,000 13,580,000 25,398,081,829 2.00% 634,952,046 621,372,045.72 0.053%

*Future Measure H Issuance amounts have been added to the outstanding par in FYE 2022-2023 and FYE 2025-2026

Measure H – Tentative Issuance Schedule

16

Voters approved Measure H in June 2016 for a total of $283 million in bond authorization.

Assumptions:

Max Tax Rate = $60/$100,000 of AV

5% annual AV growth

Current interest bonds only

Up to 30 year term per series

Tentative Issuance Schedule

Issue Issue Date Term Proceeds

Series A 11/23/2016 30 years $60,000,000

Series B 10/26/2017 30 years 100,000,000

Series C 8/1/2022 30 years 90,000,000

Series D 8/1/2025 27 years 33,000,000

Total $283,000,000

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2016 Series A 2017 Series B 2022 Series C

2025 Series D Maximum Tax Rate

Measure H Series B - $100 Million

17

The District plans to issue $100 million

for the Series B bonds in 2017.

A 30-year amortization for the Series B

bonds will provide capacity to issue

future series of bonds and stay at or

below the maximum tax rate.

Estimated Debt Service and Tax Rates

Assumptions:

Current interest bonds only

5.00% annual AV growth rate

30-year bond structure

Principal Interest

Net Debt

Service

Estimated Series

B Tax Rate

8/1/2018 - - - -

8/1/2019 200,000 - 200,000 $1.32

8/1/2020 6,860,000 588,862 7,448,862 $46.81

8/1/2021 3,285,000 4,647,000 7,932,000 $47.47

8/1/2022 4,000,000 4,482,750 8,482,750 $48.35

8/1/2023 - 4,282,750 4,282,750 $23.25

8/1/2024 - 4,282,750 4,282,750 $22.14

8/1/2025 - 4,282,750 4,282,750 $21.09

8/1/2026 - 4,282,750 4,282,750 $20.08

8/1/2027 - 4,282,750 4,282,750 $19.13

8/1/2028 175,000 4,282,750 4,457,750 $18.96

8/1/2029 405,000 4,274,000 4,679,000 $18.95

8/1/2030 660,000 4,253,750 4,913,750 $18.96

8/1/2031 935,000 4,220,750 5,155,750 $18.94

8/1/2032 1,240,000 4,174,000 5,414,000 $18.94

8/1/2033 1,575,000 4,112,000 5,687,000 $18.95

8/1/2034 1,935,000 4,033,250 5,968,250 $18.94

8/1/2035 2,330,000 3,936,500 6,266,500 $18.94

8/1/2036 2,765,000 3,820,000 6,585,000 $18.96

8/1/2037 3,230,000 3,681,750 6,911,750 $18.95

8/1/2038 3,735,000 3,520,250 7,255,250 $18.94

8/1/2039 4,285,000 3,333,500 7,618,500 $18.95

8/1/2040 4,880,000 3,119,250 7,999,250 $18.95

8/1/2041 5,525,000 2,875,250 8,400,250 $18.95

8/1/2042 6,220,000 2,599,000 8,819,000 $18.94

8/1/2043 6,975,000 2,288,000 9,263,000 $18.95

8/1/2044 7,785,000 1,939,250 9,724,250 $18.95

8/1/2045 8,660,000 1,550,000 10,210,000 $18.95

8/1/2046 9,605,000 1,117,000 10,722,000 $18.95

8/1/2047 12,735,000 636,750 13,371,750 $22.51

Total 100,000,000 94,899,362 194,699,362

Tentative Financing Schedule

18

Date Activity

Tuesday, August 22 Board Presentation on District Bond program

September 13 - 14 SBE considers Dublin USD Bonding Capacity Waiver Application

September 21 or 22 Meeting with Rating Agencies

Tuesday, September 26Board approval of resolution, legal documents, and preliminary official

statement

Wednesday, October 4 Preliminary official statement posted and delivered to investors

Thursday, October 12 Pricing

Thursday, October 26 Closing

Issued Unissued Total

BOND AUTHORIZED AMOUNT 60,000,000 223,000,000 283,000,000

AMOUNTS ALLOCATED TO PROJECTS

E5 - Cottonwood Creek (15,000,000) (15,000,000)

Dublin High School Engineering/Science Building (6,500,000) (6,500,000)

New High School Planning Costs (765,000) (765,000)

Project Management Cost (365,000) (365,000) (730,000)

Bond Issuance Cost (343,594) (1,300,000) (1,643,594)

TOTAL ALLOCATED FUNDS (22,973,594) (1,665,000) (24,638,594)

POTENTIAL MODERNIZATION/NEW CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS FOR CONSIDERATION

Estimated Budget for Phase I New Construction - Future High School (100,000,000) (100,000,000)

Estimated Budget for Fallon Middle School (Science Facility) (26,115,000) (26,115,000)

Estimated Budget to Modernize Wells Middle School including a Science Facility (55,000,000) (55,000,000)

Estimated Budget to Modernize Frederiksen Elementary School (41,687,000) (41,687,000)

Estimated Budget to Modernize Murray Elementary School (39,203,000) (39,203,000)

TOTAL MODERNIZATION/NEW CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS FOR CONSIDERATION 0 (262,005,000) (262,005,000)

BALANCE - MEASURE H 37,026,406 (40,670,000) (3,643,594)

OTHER SOURCES OF FUNDS:

OPSC Matching Funds for Amador Elementary School 28,892,902

OPSC Matching Funds for Dougherty Elementary School 1,991,433

OPSC Matching Funds for Cottonwood Creek K-8 School 28,694,481

TOTAL 59,578,816

OTHER POTENTIAL MODERNIZATION/NEW CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS FOR CONSIDERATION

Estimated Budget Modernize Nielsen Elementary School (55,000,000)

BALANCE 4,578,816

DUBLIN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

MEASURE H - AUTHORIZATION $283,000,000

August 22, 2018

20

Future High School Capacity Plan

Master plan for a future high school site for up to 2,500 students in

the east of the Dublin community.

The new high school should be a non-satellite, self-contained

program.

Construction of the new high school should be done in phases with

the first phase targeting 1,000 student capacity.

Expansion of the new high school would occur in a second phase

of 500 students as capacity warrants and funding is available.

Further expansion of the new high school would be in increments

of 500 student phases as capacity warrants and funding is

available, until the 2,500 capacity is reached .

Additional capacity to house student needs beyond 2,500 would

be implemented through flexible program planning and district-

wide use of facilities, including use of existing facilities at DHS .

21

dublin unified school district project prioritization measure h · 2019-05-28 · bond program...

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