30 oktober 2015

Water quality forecasting with FEWS

Case studies: Guanabara Limpa,

Bathing water quality in the UK Lora Buckman

Outline

• General overview of water quality applications

• WQ issues

• modeling strategies

• handling samples in FEWS -> breakout session

• data assimilation -> breakout session

• Case studies (in brief):

• Guanabara Limpa – preparation for 2016 Rio de Janeiro

Olympic Games

• Bathing water quality in UK – daily risk assessment and

warning

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What type of issues can we forecast?

Algae blooms

Oil spills

Floating trash

Habitat suitability/aquaculture

Bacterial contamination

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How does it work?

Numerical models

• Start with hydrodynamic model in FEWS system.

• Add ecological data and water quality models using a similar

approach.

Different types:

• Particle tracking & backtracking: litter, spills, transport of

observed algal bloom;

• Particle tracking with limited processes: oil, larvae, jellyfish,

bacteria;

• Ecological model (Delwaq, others) simulating concentrations of

nutrients, phytoplankton, oxygen etc.

Data-driven models

• based on historic correlations between variables

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Case Study: Guanabara Limpa

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Olympic games in Rio de Janeiro in summer 2016

Floating litter in the Bay poses a risk to sailing and

windsurfing events

Guanabara Limpa : Project background

• 380 km2

• 15 municipalities

• 8.6 million people

30 oktober 2015

Guanabara Limpa: Project background

• 380 km2

• 15 municipalities

• 8.6 million people

30 oktober 2015

Guanabara Limpa: Project background

• 380 km2

• 15 municipalities

• 8.6 million people

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Guanabara Limpa: Clean-up

• Litter coming from rivers partially collected by ‘Ecobarriers’ at the river

mouth before entering the bay

• Simply not enough

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Guanabara Limpa: Clean-up

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-

america-25635140

Guanabara Limpa: Forecasting system

Rainfall-runoff model

(W-FLOW)

3D Hydrodynamic

Model (Delft3D-FLOW)

Data Collection (with PSAM, INEA, CHM)

Particle-tracking

Module (PART)

Online Visualization

(DSC)

Operational framework (Delft-FEWS)

System Hosting

(ICT)

+ code development

+ tailored online visualization

+ app. with input from eco-boats

Forecasts imported

Water Quality Model

(DELWAQ)

Consulate-

General,

Rio de Janeiro

System Owner / End-User: Sponsorship:

Other contributions by:

Ministries:

Infrast. & Environ.,

Economic Affairs

Major project components

System development,

implementation, coordination:

01 January 2015

Website: http://guanabaralimpa.deltares.nl/

Guanabara Limpa: Challenges

Addressing the underlying issue

• Floating litter is only a part of the equation

• Issues not addressed:

• lack of waste management services

• limited operation/effectiveness of Eco-barriers

• limited sanitation – raw sewage discharges

Political environment

• What happens after 2016 is unclear

Lack of validation data

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Case study: Bathing water quality UK

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Heavy rain may cause short term

bacterial pollution of bathing waters

due to:

• Sewer overflows

• Run-off from wildlife and livestock

• Urban drainage

Swimmers are warned about risk of

reduced water quality through

internet and signposts.

Bathing water quality UK: Project background

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European Directive concerning management of bathing water quality requires:

• regular monitoring of bathing waters

• determination of bathing water quality on basis of microbiological: poor,

sufficient, good, excellent

• all bathing waters in EU must be sufficient in 2015

• additional improvement to good or excellent required

• mandate to inform bathers of poor water quality

Case study: Bathing water quality UK

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http://environment.data.gov.uk/bwq/profiles/

Rain gauge

H19 Radar Actual 15 min Accumulated

H13 Radar Nowcast 15 min Accumulated

24 hrs. and 48 hrs. trigger based on accumulated actual

measured rainfall OR Bathing Water Quality

affected by External Factors

Dissemination of Result via Bathing Water Explorer

and put up Signs at Bathing Sites.

Pilot Study – Bathing Water Quality STP System

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How to estimate bacterial pollution risk from rainfall data?

Approach: data-driven modeling (courtesy of UK Environment Agency)

Bathing water quality UK: Modeling approach

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Bathing water quality UK: Modeling approach

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Not based on water quality samples

Not predicting Actual Water Quality

But predicting an increase in RISK due to possible reduction in bathing water quality

Heavy Rainfall in Catchment washing down pollutant to bathing sites

Other External factor contributing to increase in RISK to bathing water quality

Bathing water quality UK: Initial findings

Most days with pollution risk are missed by sampling scheme

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Samples and Pollution Risk Warnings

More information: ian.dunhill@environment-agency.gov.uk

Problems with verification

• Can you verify pass/fail by looking at a few samples? –low

statistical confidence

• The distribution of samples will always favour ‘good’

conditions

• Easy to conclude that a clean sample with no warning is a

success

• Or a warning with a clean sample is protective

• A system that always predicts good will be correct most of

the time

• A system that predicts good most of the time with

occasional warnings will usually be correct

Bathing water quality UK: Challenges

Challenges:

• lack of sample data

• high uncertainty in results

• many processes unaccounted

• lack of validation data

• biological contamination difficult to assess

• public awareness, education

• beach operators especially resitsant

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Future challenges in WAQ forecasting

Improving accuracy and reliability by:

• More real-time measurements!!!

• Explore use of citizen monitoring data

• Increasing use of satellite data

• Improvement of data-driven models

• Improve understanding of biological processes

• Especially algal blooms and jellyfish

• Data model integration

• Preferably with high resolution sensor data from

satellites and buoys.

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Breakout Session: FEWS for WQ and Ecology

This Afternoon in Innovation:

• 2 Hands-on activities:

• Floating litter forecasting

• FEWS-ECO

• In-depth discussion:

• Data assimilation

• Sample handling in FEWS (new functionality)

• Other water quality topics

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Thank you for you attention

30 oktober 2015