drupal cebu promet_estimation

Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM

Estimation:

Seizing Order from Chaos


Johnnie FoxChief Technology OfficerJohnnie FoxChief Technology Officer

Recovering Developer

Certified Scrum Master

Drupal/PHP/IOS/C#/

Project Strategist

Business Analyst


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What is it


Purpose of Estimate

• Foundation for Project Planning

• Sales Tool

• Project Planning


Estimating Sucks

• It won’t be exact any way

• Developers hate doing it

• The final project won’t be like the estimate


Why Estimate

• Good estimates increase morale

• Good estimates build reputations

• Good estimates

• Helps you from taking projects thatwon’t be successful


Industry Performance

Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art – Steve McConnel


Equal Chance?


Projects are unfair


Cone of Uncertainty


Truism

• He that most convincingly underestimates a project has the highest chance of being awarded the work.


Highly Structured

• “High structure implies that the nature of the task defines its outputs, the possibility of users changing their minds about the desired outputs is practically nonexistent, and significant change management issues are not present.”

1Harvard Business School Press (2004-02-19). Harvard Business Essentials Managing Projects Large and Small: The Fundamental Skills for Delivering on Budget and on Time (Kindle Locations 220-223). Harvard Business Review Press. Kindle Edition.


Loose Structure


Types of Estimates

• Project Sizing

• Sales Estimate

• Project initiation estimate

• In project estimation

• Support estimates


Estimating Strategies:


Goals

• Re-usable

• Consistent format

• Able to use in SOW

• Can be used by PM/SA on Project Inception

• Margin Estimation


Concepts

• Defensible

• To Dev Team

• To Client

• To Sales Team


PM Definition• A good estimate is an

estimate that provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to make good decisions about how to control the project to hit its targets.. McConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software

Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 534-536). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition.


Estimation Process

• Strategies to improve Estimates

• Price what you know

• Knowing when its different?

• Ask someone who has done it before

• Examine prior projects


Caution:

• In a study of 300 software projects, Michiel van Genuchten reported that developer estimates tended to contain an optimism factor of 20% to 30% (van Genuchten 1991). Although managers sometimes complain otherwise, developers don’t tend to sandbag.

theirMcConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 1095-1096). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition


Translating

• Clients want functionality

• Our job is to translate it into user stories that can be used by the team to deliver what the client visualizes


WBS• Modified Delphi Estimation method.

• Developed by Rand Corporation in the 40's

• Fancy word for list - Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

• Make estimate separate and then compare

• After lists are made members meet and compare lists.

• Everyone must participate. • If there is no conflict and you didn't get any

additions you are doing it wrong.


WBS Continued• After lists are made members

meet and compare lists. • Everyone must participate. • If there is no conflict and you

didn't get any additions you are doing it wrong.


The Size of Time

• Hour sizes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16,

• Beyond 16 hrs

• You don’t know what the task is

• Easy target for “Shouldn’t this be lower?”


Types of time

• Dev time

• Themer Time

• Project Management

• Quality Assurance

• DevOps/Sysadmin


Minimum Cost

• Dev Ops 4 – 12 hours

• Training

• Kickoff meetings


Standard Blocks• Sprint 0

• Design

• Core Drupal (list)

• Contrib modules (list)

• SEO modules

• Social Sharing

• Custom features

• Workflow

• Integrations

• eCommerce

• 3rd party

• Theming

• Desktop

• Responsive


Standard Blocks

• Integration

• AMS (CIVI, etc)

• SSO

• Billing/eCommerce

• Training

• Dev Ops

• Project Management

• QA


Next Steps• Re-use estimates

• Stock assemblies?

• Factors of Scale/size

• Granularity

• Sales use only tool

• Estimation among other PMs

• Real world feedback


Risks

• Missed requirements

• Technical Debt

• Incorrect assumptions

• Infrastructure (VPN, Server Access)

• Poor client conditions

• Uninvolved/Unresponsive

• Contact not technically savvy


Effort per Estimate


Project Size


CTO Promet Source

Johnnie [email protected]

twitter: johnniefox

Thank You!

@prometsourcewww.prometsource.com

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