Drought Outlook - High Plains

Doug KluckRegional Climate Services DirectorJuly 24, 2013doug.kluck@noaa.gov816-994-3008816-564-2417 (c)

Last 30 Days: Percent of Normal Precipitation

Last 30 Days Precipitation

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/

Last 30 Days Temperatures

Current Drought

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/

(Modeled) Soil Moistureas of July 18

Current Streamflow

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?id=ww_current

2 weeks out (8-14 days) Monthly - August 3 Month (August – September - October)

Drought Outlooks *New* Monthly (August) 3 Month (August – September – October)

El Nino/La Nina Outlooks and what they mean

Short Term (next 7 days)

Official Weather/Climate Outlooks(Temperatures, Precipitation & Drought)

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities for 7/31-8/6/13

Precipitation

Temperatures

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

August Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities

Temperatures

Precipitation

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities

(August – September – October)

Temperatures

Precipitation

July

August – September - October

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Drought Outlooks

La Nina or El Nino or Neither?

Last five years have seen two ‘double-dip’ Las Niñas in a row, followed by a brief excursion to what looked like an El Niño event in 2012, a return to ENSO-neutral conditions as of last fall , with a recent drift towards La Niña.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei

If we look at similar 12-month runs of over the last six decades, there are three cases that were most similar: 1961-62, 1984-85, and 1998-99. The three most dissimilar (inverse) runs were in 1968-69, 1986-87, and 1989-1990. All six of these cases ended up with La Niña-like conditions later that year (flipped sign for the inverse cases).

The odds for at least weak La Niña conditions are at least equal if not higher than ENSO-neutral for the next 3-6 months. The odds for El Niño are negligible in this time frame.

Based on some ‘climate risk calculations (top) that show a double risk for very dry conditions during La Niña summers.

Using similar May-June values of this SOI as observed in 2013, the right panels show average outcomes for June-July (top right) and August-September (bottom rightthe worst-case scenario...

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/climaterisks/

7 Day Accumulated PrecipitationFinally Some Good News

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

Doug Kluck Doug.kluck@noaa.go

v 816-994-3008

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