2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and

Precipitation Outlook

Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum

Fort Worth, TX

November 29, 2011

Victor Murphy

Year to Year Precipitation Variability a Given in Texas

Data Courtesy of SCIPP

Oklahoma has Seen an Entire Generation of Green!

Data Courtesy of SCIPP

New Mexico has also seen a Generation of Green!

Data Courtesy of SCIPP

But, Against this Backdrop of Wetness Lurks La Nina

Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

Scatter Plots also Show Strong ENSO Correlation for Southern

Plains

Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

La Nina Composites

Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

But, 2010-2011 an Outlier for Drought Severity

Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

La Nina: Déjà vu all Over Again

Moderate Strength La Nina Expected to Peak in a Month

or Two.

NOAA/NCEP Coupled Forecast Series

Model Output for Precipitation

AMJ

MJJ

JJAFMA

JFM

DJF Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction

Center (CPC)

Odds 3 to 1 in favorof drier than normalvs. wetter thannormal.

MAM Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction

Center

Odds 2 to 1 in favorof drier than normalvs. wetter than normal.

November-March are Individually Among the 5 Driest Months of theYear in Texas. Significant Drought

Relief this Time of Year Very Unlikely during La Nina.

Data Courtesy of SCIPP

Little Hope for Relief During the Winter in OK also.

Data Courtesy of SCIPP

Recharge Window Even Smaller in NM.

Data Courtesy of SCIPP

12 month Percent of Average Precipitation through the end

of October 2011.

Through April, Drought Most Likely to Persist in southern

NM and western TX.

Probability of Precipitation Required to end Current Drought Conditions in 6

Months.

New Mexico Spring Precipitation by

Tercile

1.85”

2.55”

Texas Spring Rainfall by Tercile

6.5”

8.25”

Oklahoma Spring Precipitation by

Tercile

9.5”

11.5”

Louisiana Spring Rainfall by Tercile

Temperature Trends During JJA During the past 100 Years

Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL

Does October-June Precipitation Foretell Expected

Summer Rainfall? No.

Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

Summer 2011 Forecast from CPC.

Takeaway Messages

• La Nina is returning for the 2011-2012 cold season.

• Thus, through May, odds of below normal precipitation are 2 to 3 times greater than above normal.

• Any significant drought improvement not likely until April at earliest, when spring rainfall begins.

• Summer temperatures likely warmer than normal, but not likely to emulate the historic heat of last summer.

Questions??

Victor Murphy

NWS Southern Region

Climate Service Program Manager

817-966-4216 x 130

Victor.Murphy@noaa.gov

In General, Precipitation has been Increasing in the

Southern Plains

Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL