nevada price outlook alfalfa and grass hay dealing with drought
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Nevada Price Outlook Alfalfa and Grass Hay Dealing With Drought. Michael Helmar [email protected] University of Nevada, Reno University Center for Economic Development. Impacting the Price Outlook. Major factors in the outlook for 2014 Drought abates Water storage - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Nevada Price Outlook
Alfalfa and Grass HayDealing With Drought
Michael [email protected]
University of Nevada, RenoUniversity Center for Economic Development
Impacting the Price Outlook
• Major factors in the outlook for 2014– Drought abates
• Water storage• Range and pasture conditions
– Hay acreage– Fallon WMP plant and dairy herd expansion– Fire season– California
Improved Supplies Ease Crop Prices
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
50
100
150
200
250US Corn, $/bu (L)US Soybeans, $/bu (L)US Alfalfa, $/ton (R )
Sources: USDA, FAPRI
Weather, WMP Plant Influence Hay Outlook
50
100
150
200
250
8
10
12
14
16Alfalfa hay, $/ton (L)Other hay, $/ton (L)Private grazing fees, $/AUM (R )
Nevada forage prices
Sources: USDA, UCED
Irrigation Keeps Yields Up
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220130
1
2
3
4
5
AlfalfaOther hay
Source: USDA
Nevada hay yield, tons/acre
Drought Reduces Irrigated Acres, Number of Cuttings
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
AlfalfaOther hay
Source: USDA
Nevada hay acreage, ths
California Losing Alfalfa Acres
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200AlfalfaOther hay
Source: USDA
California hay acreage, ths
Late Year Moisture Improves Range
0
25
50
75
1002010 2011 2012
2013 2000-2010 avg
Nevada range condition, 0=Very Poor, 25=Poor, 50=Fair, 75=Good, 100=Excellent
Sources: USDA, UCED
Profitability Depends on Water in 2014
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000Total operating costsGross revenue
Nevada alfalfa, $/harvested acre
Sources: USDA, UCED
Cattle Prices Boosted by Low Inventories
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200US slaughterUS feederNevada feeder
Sources: USDA, FAPRI-MU, UCED
Cattle prices, $/cwt
Strong Prices Will Support Profitability
0
200
400
600
800
1,000Other operating costsOther feed costsPurchased feed costsGross value of production
Basin & Range cow-calf, $/bred cow
Sources: USDA, UCED
Milk Prices Will Fall as Feed Prices Ease
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
10
12
14
16
18
20
22CaliforniaNevadaU.S.
Source: USDA, FAPRI
All-milk price, $/cwt
Profitability Expected to Return in 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
Other operating costsOther feed costsPurchased feed costs
Nevada dairy, $/cwt of milk sold
Sources: USDA, UCED
Wrap-Up• Multi-year drought makes water shortage
more acute this year• Range conditions might not be adequate• Fires could push more ranchers off land• Dairy demand will boost hay needs• California a major market for Nevada hay
Contact InformationThis presentation can be accessed on the University
Center for Economic Development website at:http://www.unr.edu/business/research-and-outreach/uced/food-and-agricultural-policy-research-institute-(fapri)
For more information or questions regarding this outlook please contact Mike Helmar at:[email protected]