drought, a global perspective: efforting toward a...
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Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area LeaderNational Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Drought, A Global Perspective: Efforting Toward a Global Drought
Early Warning System
INSPIRE , Krakow, Poland, June 23-25, 2010
OutlineThe NDMC
NDMC Program AreasCollaborations: International
Drought Monitoring and Early Warning (DEWS)USDMInputsNADMSeasonal Drought Outlook (forecast)Impacts
New Wave of ToolsRemote SensingModels/Land Data Simulations (LDAS)
NIDISNeed for a Global Drought Preparedness NetworkSummary
National Drought Mitigation Center
Founded: 1995 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Mission: To lessen societal vulnerability to drought by promoting planning and the adoption of appropriate risk management techniques.
NDMC Program Objectives
Improve the science of drought monitoring, planning, and mitigation Build awareness of drought and its impacts on society and the environment, and how human actions affect our vulnerability to droughtFocus the attention of policy makers on the importance of drought policy and planning in the wise stewardship of natural resources
RESEARCH, OUTREACH, AND TRAINING
23 diverse faculty & staff
4 graduate students
3 visiting international scientists
Staff backgrounds:ClimatologyMeteorologyHydrologyWater Resources
Staff backgrounds:PlanningEconomicsPublic ParticipationRural SociologyAnthropologyJournalism
Staff backgrounds:GISRemote SensingGeographyEcology
(Mike Hayes)
NDMC Organizational Overview
NDMC’s Monitoring Program Area
• UN organizations: FAO, ISDR, and CCD
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• US AID• Various regional and national drought centers• Numerous government agencies and universities in different countries
SPIGlobal applications (established)Flexible to a variety of needs
Provided to over 65 countries150 + scientistsOver 50+ visiting scientists
SPI Applications
Forecasted Probability for SPI < -1.5
Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices
The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS)
Allows for early drought detectionImproves response (proactive)Data and tools for decision support“Triggers” actions within a drought plan A critical mitigation actionFoundation of a drought plan
Components of a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)
Monitoring AND ForecastingAccess to timely dataSynthesis/analysis of data used to “trigger” setactions within a drought planTools for decision makersEfficient dissemination/communication(WWW, media, extension, etc.)Drought risk planningEducation and Awareness
……..the rapid onset of National Drought Centers/Strategies
JRC-EDOAustraliaCanadaUnited StatesDMCSEE/SloveniaSpainSouth AfricaPortugalSouth KoreaChinaIndiaPakistanMoroccoSyriaBrazil (Sao Paulo state)JordanIran
Drought Monitoring State of the Science:Where are we now?
WCC-3,GDPN/GEOSS is a way to learn/leverage from one another
Canada/Mexico/United StatesUN/WMO/others
Many regions/countries are working together to better monitor droughtMonitoring of impacts globally is virtually non-existentEarly warning/monitoring just one key: THENWHAT? Need linkages to risk/vulnerability assessment and planning for adaptationMany indicators/indices don’t reflect reality in various regions, or for various season(s)……or for both!
Drought Monitoring State of the Science:Where are we now?
Heightened awareness as a result of IPCC AR4An explosion of good work/tools/products out there over the past 5 yearsImpediments remain
Lack of coordinationLack of trigger ties to any drought plansResourcesLack of data/long-term dataLack of impact data/collectionLack of institutional cooperationLack of drought “mitigation” plans
Billion Dollar DisastersNCDC, 1980-2008
Disaster Events Damage$Hurricanes 27 367Tornadoes 16 34Droughts 14 180Floods 13 70Fires 9 21Winter-related 11 39Total 90 711
Approaches to Drought Assessment
Single index or indicator (parameter)Multiple indices or indicatorsComposite Indicator
The U.S. Drought MonitorSince 1999, NOAA (CPC, NCDC, WRCC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map
with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies
• Western Region Climate Center on board 2008•CalDry listserver hosted by CA DWR
• 10 authors in all• Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, SC’s, federal/state agencies, etc.) (~260 experts)
A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map“Convergence of evidence” approachTrying to capture these characteristics:
the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity)spatial extent probability of occurrenceImpacts
Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks
The Drought Monitor Concept
U.S. Drought Monitor MapDrought Intensity Categories
D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile)
D1 Drought – Moderate (20%tile)
D2 Drought – Severe (10%tile)D3 Drought – Extreme (5%tile)
D4 Drought – Exceptional (2%tile)
U.S. Drought MonitorIntegrates KeyDrought Indicators:- Palmer Drought Index- SPI- KBDI- Modeled Soil Moisture- 7-Day Avg. Streamflow- Precipitation Anomalies
Growing Season:- Crop Moisture Index- Sat. Veg. Health Index- Soil Moisture- Mesonet data
In The West:- SWSI- Reservoir levels- Snowpack (SNOTEL)- SWE- Streamflow
Created in ArcGIS
The Drought Monitor is Widely Used
Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NWS DGT/State drought plan triggers~3.5M+ page views and ~2M+ visitors/yearMedia: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/Internet /radio/ Nightly Network News/CNN/NPR/etc.Presidential/Congressional/Governor briefingsNIDIS portal/portletA model of interagency collaboration
History of the North American Drought Monitor (NADM)
The concept for the NADM was developed and discussed in 2002The first NADM map was released in March 2003The first NADM map in all three languages (English, Spanish, and French)was released in October 2003
North American Drought Monitor Partners
Canada• Agriculture and Agrifood Canada• Environment Canada• Meteorological Service of Canada
Mexico• National Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN-Servicio Meteorologico
Nacional)• CONAGUA (Comision Nacional del Agua)
United States• National Drought Mitigation Center• National Climatic Data Center• Climate Prediction Center• United States Department of Agriculture
U.S. Seasonal Drought OutlookIssued every two weeksCPC monthly precipitation outlookCPC long-lead seasonal 90-day forecastsVarious medium- and short-range forecasts
and models such as the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecastsSoil moisture tools based on the GFS model and the Constructed Analogue on Soil (CAS) moisture, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal precipitation forecasts, climatology, and initial conditions.
What we’ve learned: Defining Impacts
Rainfalldeficiencies
Meteorological
SoilsCropsRange
LivestockForests
AgriculturalWater SupplySnow DepthRecreation
TourismHydropower
Hydrological
Time/Duration of the event
Socio-economic & Political
Human Impact
The Drought Impact Reporter v2http://droughtreporter.unl.edu
Sponsor: USDA-Risk Management Agency and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services Program (TRACS)
Why Track Drought Impacts?Establish an impacts baseline for monitoring
Climate change
To know where to direct reliefTo reduce vulnerability in advance of the next drought“Ground truth” indicesNo single method exists for collecting and/or quantifying drought lossesVery little in the way of environmental or qualitative collection
Some DIR Factoids
Established in 2005DIR DB now contains ~12,000 impacts1,891 impacts added in 2009
Promoting the Promoting the ““drought impact drought impact reportingreporting”” idea to their volunteersidea to their volunteers……
* 14,000+ volunteers covering all 50 states!!
* CoCoRaHS “Message of the Day”
* Monthly e-mail reminders
* Guide to reporting drought impacts
* Banners on the Web
Courtesy: Henry Reges, Colorado State University
Initial Remote Sensing Efforts to Support the USDM
1. Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) – integrates satellite‐based vegetation index (VI) observations, climate‐based drought index data, and general environmental information (e.g., LULC type, soils, and elevation).
o NDMC and USGS Center for EROS are working to develop a MODIS‐based VegDRI to replace the current AVHRR VI‐based operational VegDRI products.
http://drought.unl.edu/vegdri/VegDRI_Main.htm
Investigators: S. V. Nghiem (JPL, PI), J. P. Verdin (USGS, Lead Co‐I), D. A. Wilhite (NDMC), R. Dole (NOAA PSD), D. LeComte (NOAA CPC), G. R. Brakenridge (Darmouth
DFO), E. G. Njoku (JPL)
“National Drought Monitoring System for Drought Early Warning Using Hydrologic and Ecologic
Observations from NASA Satellite Data”
Project supported by: NNH07ZDA001N: NASA Decision Support through Earth Science Research
Results Brown, J.F., B.D. Wardlow, T. Tadesse, M.J. Hayes, and B.C. Reed, 2008. The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI): a new integrated approach for monitoring drought stress in vegetation. GIScience and Remote Sensing, 45(1):16-46.
Soil Soil MoistureMoistureSnow, Ice, RainfallSnow, Ice, Rainfall SnowSnow
VegetationVegetationRadiationRadiation
Remote Sensing of the Water Cycle
Aqua: MODIS, AMSR-E, etc.
GRACEGRACE is unique in its ability to monitor water at all levels, down to the deepest aquifer
Traditional radiation-based remote sensing technologies cannot sense water below the first few centimeters of the snow-canopy-soil column
Matt RodellMatt RodellNASA GSFCNASA GSFC
Initial Remote Sensing Efforts to Support the USDM
4. Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) depicts ‘moisture’ stress from both the soil and vegetation canopy based on ET flux estimates from aland surface model (ALEXI & DisALEXI) that relies primarily on remotely sensed thermal observations.
WetterDrierSEASONAL ANOMALIES (9-year record)
April – September 2008
Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)
Courtesy: M. Anderson USDA ARS (2008)
ΔESI
Investigators: M.C. Anderson (USDA ARS), K.C. Mo (NCEP‐CPC), M. Svoboda (NDMC), B. Wardlow (NDMC), X. Zhan (NESDIS), J.R. Mecikalksi (U of Alabama), W.P.
Kustas (USDA ARS), and J.F. Brown (USGS‐EROS)
“A GOES Thermal-based Drought Early Warning Index for NIDIS”
Project supported by: OAR-CPO-2009-2001430: NOAA Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP_
Competition – Drought Forecast Products and Applications
Anderson, M.C., Norman, J.M., Mecikalski, J.R., Otkin, J.A., Kustas, W.P. 2007. A climatological study of evapotranspiration and moisture stress across the continental U.S. based on thermal remote sensing. II. Surface moisture climatology. Journal of Geophysical Research. 112, D11112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007507.
What is the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)?
The Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) consists of uncoupled models forced with observations, satellite data and radar precipitation measurements, and is therefore not affected by Numerical WP forcing biases. Near real-time using existing Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Schemes (SVATS) by NCEP, NASA, Princeton University, and the University of Washington at 1/8 degree (about 14 kilometer) resolution across North America and at 1/4 degree resolution globally.Outputs: soil moisture, snow water equivalent, total runoff, streamflow, evaporation and precipitation. The SM anomalies and percentiles are based on a 28 year climatology (1980 - 2007)
USDM Concept Expanded to North AmericaThe monthly North American Drought Monitor (NADM) was introduced in 2003 and built upon the USDM concept.Challenges:1.Limited number of data inputs compared to the USDM2.Data inconsistencies (e.g., specific measure, format, and quality) among countries3.Currently, limited use of remote sensing-derived inputs (primarily NDVI).
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
A NOAA-led Federal, State, Tribal and Local Partnership
(Public Law 109-430, 2006)
Goal of NIDIS: Improve the nation’s capacity to ‘proactively’ manage drought-related risks by providing decision makers with the best available information and tools to assess the impact of drought and to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.
www.drought.gov
Other Partners:
Western Governors Association (WGA)
National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
Regional Climate Centers
American Association of State Climatologists
Indigenous Waters Network
Weather Channel
Numerous Universities including: University of Oklahoma, University of South Carolina, University of Washington, South Dakota State University, and Cornell University.
NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date):
www.drought.gov
Courtesy: NIDIS
Immediate future development in the USDP will be aimed at:Spinning up regional pilot activities and regional depiction of drought
Working with GEO to begin addressing global and international drought monitoring and forecasting
Moving Forward: Scales
• What tools are currently in place that we can leverage in the SE US and the upper Colorado Basin for purposes of mitigation of impacts and adaptation?
• Are tools applicable to local/regional level or are they transferable nationwide?
• Who are the key local/regional players?• What else have we missed?
NIDIS Pilots A Geographic Framework for Developing Drought Early Warning Systems
(EWS) for Local-Scale Decision Making
•‘Issue-based’ EWS tailored to the critical decisions and issuefacing each basin• Each EWS will be unique with specific inputs and methodsdeveloped and implemented bylocal experts• Partnerships between:
1) federal, state, and local agencies,
2) tribal groups,3) other types of NGOs; and4) private sector
+ =Decision Support
Integrated Climate, Ecosystems, Hydrology,
& Remote Sensing Info & Data
Watershed, state, tribal, local: Experience &
Knowledge
NIDIS Pilot Areas
The USDP is looking for partners to contribute the following four types of information (in priority order):Web Mapping Services (WMS) that meet the standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) 1.0 or higher. Drought-related maps and web sites that are regularly updated and can be rendered in a USDP portlet.Drought-related maps and web sites that are regularly updated and can be made available only as a stand-alone page.Non-regularly issued reports related to drought, of a non-time sensitive nature.
Moving Forward: Call for Content
WCC3 Executive Summary concluded:• that present capabilities to provide effective climate services fall far short of meeting present, and future needs and benefits, particularly in developing countries;• that the most urgent need is for much closer partnerships between the providers and users of climate services;
– that great scientific progress has been made especially by the World Climate Programme and its associated activities over the past 30 years, which provides already a firm basis for the delivery of a wide range of climate services; and– that major new and strengthened research efforts are required to increase the time-range and skill of climate prediction through new research and modelling initiatives; and – to improve the observational basis for climate prediction and services, and the availability and quality control of climate data;
• called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for climate services:
– The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities; and – provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data;– The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives.– Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented information to support adaptation activities;– Climate user interface mechanisms focused on building linkages and integrating information, at all levels, between theproviders and users of climate services; and– Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and strengthened outreach and communication.
• supported the development of the proposed Global Framework for Climate Services.
What is GEOSS?: The Global Earth Observation System of Systems
The Global Earth Observation System of Systems will provide decision-support tools to a wide variety of users. As with the Internet, GEOSS will be a global and flexible network of content providers allowing decision makers to access an extraordinary range of information at their desk.
Individually, many nations will be unable to improve their drought coping capacity.
Collectively, through global, regional, and national partnerships, we can share information and experiences to reduce the impacts of drought.
Global Drought Preparedness Network
Potential Regional Networks
West Asia NetworkMediterranean Network
Southeastern and Central European Network
South American Network
North American Network
Sub-Saharan African Network
Asian Network
Caribbean Network
Future DroughtMonitoring Challenges
The Big Five:Impact collection/quantificationSoil moisture (especially in situ)Hydrology (surface and groundwater)Application of remotely sensed/modeled products operationally (trust) (operational)Ecological/Environmental (D-x E?)
“If a drought occurs in the desert, does anybody see it?”
Summary
Drought is not just a physical eventVulnerability mattersImpacts (establish a baseline)Global DEWS: Heighten Awareness and act as a Focusing Tool for Policy Makers
Planning, policy, mitigation, adaptationPromote and Encourage Citizen Science
Any Questions?Please contact me at:
Mark SvobodaNational Drought Mitigation Center
Thank You
Please visit the NDMC website for more information: http://www.drought.unl.edu