dr. ranbir singh rana , scientist (agronomy) centre for geo-informatics research and training

Centre For Geoinformatics Research and training, CSKHPAU, Palampur H.P.The Centre for Geo-informatics, CSK HP Agriculture University, Palampur. Himachal Pradesh 176 062

ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Dr. Ranbir Singh Rana , Scientist (Agronomy)Centre for Geo-informatics Research and Training

CSKHPKV Palampur

Application of Extended Range forecast for climate risk management in agriculture in H.P.

International Agriculture Risk Management Workshop EFRS Project-GOI, ANGRAU,27-30 April,09


ERF_AprilHyd-2009Study area & Map of H.P.

Study DistrictApple

Study DistrictWheat


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Wheat Area – Rabi season

Apple growing areas in H.P.


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Data Documentation

Study site Kullu and Kangra.

Data Available:

Kullu: (Bajaura and Katrian) Weather trends data 26 years. Rainfall, temp, Sunshine ,RH,Winds and Evaporation, sensitivity of crop production w.r.t. rainfall and temperature

Kangra:( Palampur, Nurpur): 34 years –Rainfall, temp,Sunshine ,RH,Windsand Evaporation, sensitivity of crop production w.r.t. rainfall and temperature.


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Station Temp Rainfall

Evaporation BSS RH

Palampur 1974 onward

1974 onward

1974 onward 1980 onward

1991 onward

Nurpur 1992 onward

1992 onward


1992 onward

Bajaura 1986 onward

1986 onward


1986 onward

Katrain IARI Station

Data Available

>5000m

4500m

4250m

4000m

3500m

3250m

3000m

2750m Zone 4.1

2500m Zone 3.2

2000m

1750m (Zone 3.1)

1500m

1250m ( Zone 2.1& 2.2)

1000m

500m

350m ( Zone 1.1&1.2)

Climatic Types

Frigid Continental

Alpine Continental

Snow, glaciers and glacial lakes

Alpine Meadows (herbs, lichens and mosses)

Small millets, barley, seed potato peas, French bean, buckwheat apple, grapes almonds walnuts apricot sheep farming, High value crops kalazira, kuth, hops, cumin and saffron

Wheat, barley, rice, potato, off season vegetables, peas, French bean, buckwheat, apple, temperate fruits, pear, cherry, walnut etc.

Wheat, barley, rice, maize, potato, off season vegetables ,ginger, peach, pear, plum, apricot, almond etc. Chir pines

Wheat, barley, rice, maize, pulses, oilseeds vegetables, Ginger ,citrus, mango litchi etc.

Cold Temperate continental monsoon

Cool Temperate continental monsoon

Warm Temperate continental monsoon

Sub Tropical continental monsoon


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Cropping Systems in the Himachal Pradesh

Cropping Systems

Low hills Sub-tropical Zone

Mid hills Sub-humid Zone

High hills Temperate Zone

Dry Farming Areas

Maize-WheatMaize-GramMaize-MusteredSugarcane

Maize-WheatMaize-buckwheatGram- BarleyGinger-Wheat/barleyMaize-vegetables

Maize-Wheat/barleyPotato-Fallow/PotatoesPotato-Peas/fallow

Irrigated Areas Maize-Mustered/WheatMaize-Potato-WheatPaddy-Wheat/cloverMaize-VegetablesVegetables-Wheat

Paddy-WheatVegetables-WheatPotato-Peas/WheatMaize-Vegetables/Wheat

Beans-CabbageCabbage-PeasBarley-Buckwheat-fallow


ERF_AprilHyd-2009TEMPORAL CHANGES IN CROPPING PATTERN IN HIMACHAL PRADESH, 1972-73 TO 2003-04 (per cent to total cropped area)

Sr.No.

Crops 1972-73 1977-78

1982-83

1987-88

1992-93

2003-04

1. Rice 10.54 10.90 9.45 9.25 8.42 8.38

2. Maize 28.16 29.11 30.10 30.78 31.91 31.35

3. Wheat 34.27 34.30 39.24 38.50 38.93 38.73

4. Barley 4.55 4.04 3.94 3.23 2.79 2.71

5. Other cereals

5.90 4.13 3.40 2.85 2.08 1.60

6. Pulses 7.76 8.66 4.48 4.52 4.22 3.40

7. Sugarcane 0.39 0.45 0.35 0.31 0.24 0.32

8. Apple 1.27 1.57 2.08 2.62 3.56 4.25

9. Other fruits

0.52 .60 0.92 1.06 1.22 1.78

10. Potato 1.56 1.56 1.39 1.53 1.46 1.50

11. Other vegetables

0.54 0.61 0.83 1.32 1.15 2.12

12. Ginger 0.24 0.27 0.20 0.21 0.17 0.21

13. Oilseeds 2.58 2.33 2.43 2.38 2.25 1.97

14. Other 1.72 1.47 1.19 1.44 1.60 1.68Source : Annual Season and Crop Reports


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Temperature Change in 31 Years in Kangra (Palampur)

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Rab

i

Kh

arif

An

nu

al

Months/Season

Min

Te

mp

( º

C)

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Rab

i

Kh

ari

f

An

nu

al

Months/Season

Ma

x T

em

p (

ºC

)


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

-1600.00

-1400.00

-1200.00

-1000.00

-800.00

-600.00

-400.00

-200.00

0.00

200.00Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Rab

i

Kh

ari

f

An

nu

al

Months/Season

Ra

infa

ll (m

m)

Rainfall Amount& Mean temp Change in 31 Years in Kangra

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Rab

i

Kh

ari

f

An

nu

al

Months/Season

Me

an

Te

mp

( º

C)


ERF_AprilHyd-2009Temperature Change in 18 Years Bajaura (Kullu valley)

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Rab

i

Kh

ari

f

An

nu

al

Months/Season

Min

Te

mp

( º

C)

-3.00

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Rab

i

Kh

arif

An

nu

al

Months/Season

Ma

x T

em

p (

ºC

)


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Mean Temperature& Rainfall Change in 18 Years Bajaura (Kullu)

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Rab

i

Kh

arif

An

nu

al

Months/Season

Me

an

Te

mp

( º

C)

-500.00

-400.00

-300.00

-200.00

-100.00

0.00

100.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Rab

i

Kh

arif

An

nu

al

Months/Season

Ra

infa

ll (m

m)


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Rice yield trends in Kangra

y = 0.268x + 10.549

579

1113151719

1985

-86

1987

-88

1989

-90

1991

-92

1993

-94

1995

-96

1999

-00

Years

Yie

ld q

/hac

Maize yield trends in Kangra

y = 0.2818x + 13.293

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

1985

-86

1987

-88

1989

-90

1991

-92

1993

-94

1995

-96

1999

-00

Years

Yie

ld(q

/ha)

y = -0.194x + 15.45

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

yie

ld(q

/Ha)

Years

Wheat yield trends in Kangra

Yield Trends of major crops in Kangra


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Impact of changing climate on wheat( Based on 21 years data)

Crop/ Variety Days to flowering

Days to maturity

Wheat

VL-616 Early sown -17.6 -10.7

HS-240 Timely sown -7.4 -17.5

HS-295 Late sown -.1 -18.5


ERF_AprilHyd-2009Yield Trends of major crops in KulluRice yield trends in Kullu

y = 0.0993x + 13.128

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Years

yiel

d(q

/ha)

Maize yield trends in Kullu

y = 0.5258x + 18.683

5.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.00

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1997

-98

1999

-00

2000

-01

Years

Yie

ld(q

/ha)

Wheat yield trends in Kullu

y = 0.1049x + 17.461

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Years

Yie

ld(q

/ha)


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Apple productivity trends in Kullu

y = -0.1135x + 5.2822

0

2

4

6

8

10

Years

Yie

ld (

ton

/ha)


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Cummulative Chill units trends (Utah Model) at Bajaura in Kullu valley

y = -6.4602x + 1261.5

0200400600800

1000120014001600

Cummulative Chill units

Year

s

Cummulative chill units (Utah Model) of Shimla

y = -19.049x + 1134.5

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Years

cum

mu

lati

ve C

hill

un

its(

Ho

urs

)

Changing chilling requirements of apple in H.P.( Based on last 15-18 years data and using Utah ,USA

Model)

6-19 Chill hours decreasing per year at Bajaura and Shimla 306 at Bajaura and 266 at Shimla chill hours decreased due to climate change


ERF_AprilHyd-2009Farmers Perceptions on Climate (Percent multiple response)

ParticularsDhaulakuan Shimla Kullu Kangra Lahaul

Valley

Increasing temp. during summer 88 80 85 90 -

Prolonged summer season 56 48 66 62 -

Short summer season 5 8 10 5 -

Delayed in the onset of rainy season 66 80 85 88 -

Uneven distribution of rainfall 90 96 88 98 -

Insufficient rainfall during rainy season 58 72 77 95 -

Delay in the outset of winter season 92 48 68 45 60

Very low temp. in winter season - 12 - 10 80

Short winter period 92 88 94 88 80

Temp. above normal during winter 92 88 92 96 15

Reducing snowfall in winter - 100 100 - 88

High humid weather 66 36 40 75 22

Increasing foggy days in winter 66 52 16 22 -

Increasing cloudy days in winter 56 18 16 15 28

Unpredictable rainfall 66 52 76 65 -

Threat of floods 58 50 88 - 88

High velocity winds 18 - - 20 -

Mud slides - - - - 20

High intensity of rainfall 52 - 20 - -


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Pest and disease of crops in Kangra Insect Maize : i) Cutworms-June

ii) Stem borer-July-AugustRice i) leaf folder-July

ii) Stem boreriii) Leaf hopperiv) Rice hispa-Nursery

Wheat i) Termites-November

Potato i) Cutwormsii) White grubsiii) Potato tuber moth Feb-March High temp &RH

Diseases Maize : i) Leaf blight-July first week, High RH

Rice: i) Blast-June to Julyii) Brown spot(False smut)-June ,July

Wheat i) Rust Yellow January- Dry conditionsii) Powdery mildew Jan end- Dry conditions

Potatoi) Late blight- March High Moisture conditions


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Pest and disease of crops in Kullu Diseases Maize : i) Leaf blight-July first week, High RH

Rice: i) Blast-June to Julyii) Brown spot (False smut)-June ,July

Wheat i) Rust Yellow January- Dry conditionsii) Powdery mildew Jan end- Dry conditions

Apple i) Scab -June ,Julyii) Pre mature leaf fall-July, Augustiii) Collar Rot- Through out year

Insect Maize : i) Cutworms-June

ii) Stem borer-July-AugustRice: i) leaf folder

ii) Stem boreriii) Leaf hopperiv) Rice hispa-Nursery

Apple i) Woolly aphids-March Onwardsii) Sanjose Scale-Through Yeariii) Mites-March onward


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Livelihood Options In Kullu District

Particular

Marginal

Small Large All farm

2005 1995 2005 1995 2005 1995 2005 1995

Agriculture 77.12 83.84 61.78 82.84 52.38 66.67 65.67 76.43

Business - - 4.80 2.11 19.05 12.50 7.82 4.92

Private Job 4.81 3.75 9.62 - 9.52 4.17 6.92 4.40

Govt.Job 18.07 12.41 23.80 15.05 19.05 16.66 19.59 14.25

Total(No./farm)

4.37(100.0

0)

4.27(100.0

0)

3.95(100.0

0)

3.32(100.0

0)

4.20(100.0

0)

4.80(100.0

0)

4.34(100.0

0)3.86(100.00)


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Livelihood Options In Kangra District

Particular Marginal Small Large All farm

2005 1995 2005 1995 2005 1995 2005 1995

Agriculture 63.22 81.05 58.26 69.27 60.87 65.52 60.35 70.99

Business 4.60 4.21 8.41 6.38 13.04 3.45 6.98 4.67

Labour 16.09 9.47 14.64 6.38 13.04 17.24 14.96 9.13

Private Job 3.45 0.00 6.23 6.86 4.35 3.45 4.49 5.07

Govt.Job 10.34 3.16 12.46 11.11 8.70 10.34 10.72 8.11

Rural artisan

2.30 2.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.49 2.03

Total(No./farm)

4.35(100.00

)

4.75(100.00

)

3.21(100.00

)

4.23(100.00

)

4.60(100.00

)

5.80(100.00

)

4.01(100.0

0)

4.93(100.00)


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

State Agricultural Production & Cropped Area (2005/06)

Category Production

(100,000 ton)Cropped

Area (100,000ha)

Distribution of Cropped Area (%)

Food Grain 16.0 8.1 73%

Vegetables 7.6 0.7 7%

Fruits 4.6 1.9 18%

Others 0.1 0.2 2%

Total 28.4 10.9 100%


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Farm Size in the StateMajority of farmer: Small & marginal Farmers

Approx. 729, 000 farmers & 84.5%Their Major Crops are Food Grain Crops.

Vegetables (7%) & fruits (18%) in limited area. Agricultural Census 1995/96 (Published 2005)

Size Class No of

Households Distribution

1. Marginal below 1.0 ha 555,600 64.4%

2 Small 1.0 ha to 2.0ha sub- total of

Marginal &Small Farmers

173,500729,100

20.1%84.5%

3. Semi Medium 2.0 ha to 4.0 ha 95,100 11.2%

4. Medium 4.0 ha to 10 ha 34,000 3.9%

5. large above 10ha 4,700 0.6%

Total 862,900 100.0%


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Average Farm Size Average Farm Size: 0.75ha

Family Size: 5.9 persons Cropped area of Average Farm Household

( DoA Data 2005/06 through Agric. Block Offices)

Item Average family

Farm Size 0.75 ha

Family size 5.9 person

Food Grains : Kaharif 0.44 39%

Food Grains : Rabi 0.42 37%

Vegetables : Kharif 0.05 4%

Vegetables : Rabi 0.02 2%

Fruits 0.2 18%

Total 1.13 100%


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Relevant Agriculture Polices and Programs

Need based infrastructure for assured irrigation Promotion of Diversification through

interventions like protected Agr., Marketing infrastructure and niche based organic farming

Productivity of conventional crops Integrated hill farming Development-ATMA National watershed development program for

rainfed agriculture. Soil and water conservation programs


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

Key Institutions Kangra CSKHPKV, Palampur mandated with to provide Research extension

in agriculture and animals Sciences KVK –Kangra-Extension agency Institute of Himalayan Bio-resources Technology-Mandated to

provide R&D support on medicinal plants etc. Horticultural Regional Research station & processing centre Department of Agriculture extension network Kullu Regional Research station, CSKHPKV Regional Research station Hort & Forestry. University Department of agriculture & horticulture extension network KVK-CSKHPKV Snow and Avalanche study Establishments GB Pant Institute-Research station NGOS: Lahual potato society(LPS), -Kullu Society of technical development (STD) –Mallori, Kullu Centre for up liftment of rural economy (CURE),Kullu Jagritti: women organization for livelihood alleviation,Kullu Fruit growers associations-Patlikoo Kullu


ERF_AprilHyd-2009

ThanksThanks Jai Jai KisanKisan

Jai VigyanJai Vigyan

dr. ranbir singh rana , scientist (agronomy) centre for geo-informatics research and training

Documents

palampur h

temperate fruits

csk hp agriculture university

21000m500m350m zone

season vegetables

11500m1250m zone

22000m1750m zone

geoinformatics research