dr. james p. gaines membership chief luncheon october … realtors association october 5... · dr....

Membership Luncheon

October 5, 2017

1

Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist

recenter.tamu.edu

REC’s Economic Crystal Ball

2

U.S. Outlook

3

• The economy hasn’t been “Trumped” so far

• Slow growth the “new norm” – 7 years avg. 2.1%; 2016 GDP growth 1.5%; 2017 ~2.2%

• Interest rates will … maybe!

• Inflation more likely: 2017 2% - 2.5%

• Industrial production and manufacturing little help

• U.S. Housing improving, not fully recovered

• Jobs expand <2%; unemployment rate below 5.0%

• Looking for a “Driver” for expansion

Texas and U.S. Economic GrowthAnnual Percent Change in Real GDP

6.2%

3.9%3.3%

2.6%

1.5%

0.8%

4.8%

2.3%

6.2%

4.9%

0.6%

-0.6%

2.6%

3.6%

5.7%5.1%

3.7%

4.5%

0.4%

3.6%

4.5% 4.7%

4.1%

1.0%

1.8%

2.8%

3.8%3.3%

2.7%

1.8%

‐0.3%

‐2.8%

2.5%

1.6%

2.2%1.7%

2.6%2.9%

1.5%

2.2%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%19

98

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

p

Texas US

Sources: BEA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 4

10-Year Treasury; Federal Funds & 30-Year FMR

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan-

07A

pr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08A

pr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10A

pr-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11A

pr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12A

pr-1

2Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13A

pr-1

3Ju

l-13

Oct

-13

Jan-

14A

pr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15A

pr-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16A

pr-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan-

17A

pr-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

30 Year Mortgage10 Year Treasury Federal Funds Effective Rate

Source: Haver Analytics; FHLMC; St. Louis FED; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University5

Weekly 30-Year Mortgage Rate

2015-12-31, 4.01%

2016-11-03, 3.54%

2016-12-29, 4.32%

3.0%3.1%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.8%3.9%4.0%4.1%4.2%4.3%4.4%4.5%

12/3

/15

12/1

7/15

12/3

1/15

1/14

/16

1/28

/16

2/11

/16

2/25

/16

3/10

/16

3/24

/16

4/7/

164/

21/1

65/

5/16

5/19

/16

6/2/

166/

16/1

66/

30/1

67/

14/1

67/

28/1

68/

11/1

68/

25/1

69/

8/16

9/22

/16

10/6

/16

10/2

0/16

11/3

/16

11/1

7/16

12/1

/16

12/1

5/16

12/2

9/16

1/12

/17

1/26

/17

2/9/

172/

23/1

73/

9/17

3/23

/17

4/6/

174/

20/1

75/

4/17

5/18

/17

6/1/

176/

15/1

76/

29/1

77/

13/1

77/

27/1

78/

10/1

78/

24/1

79/

7/17

9/21

/17

10/5

/17

10/1

9/17

11/2

/17

11/1

6/17

11/3

0/17

12/1

4/17

12/2

8/17

Source: FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 6

2017 Recovery Year – Doing Very Well

2018: Potentially Great/Difficult Year

7

Texas Economy

REC’s Economic Crystal Ball: Texas’ Economy…

8

Texas Outlook

9

Texas Economy slowed significantly in 2016 2017 much better: energy, healthcare, business &

professional services up National economic expansion most positive factor for

continued positive 2018 Energy sector downturn impacts mostly over Texas job growth picking up, expect ~2.5% Population expansion continues Local Growth Issues becoming more pressing, causing

greater strain on state and local resources and causing some cost impacts on local housing

Texas Annual Jobs

10

7,125,7007,204,6007,301,2007,515,100

7,786,1008,058,700

8,291,4008,642,700

8,973,7009,189,400

9,461,2009,543,9009,446,4009,400,7009,527,7009,771,800

10,098,30010,428,200

10,642,40010,341,10010,374,500

10,604,20010,914,400

11,241,20011,593,900

11,869,70012,028,400

12,329,110

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

13,000,00019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

17p

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2010-2015 +1,499,600 jobs; average 299,920/year

2012 +2.9% +310,2002013 +3.0% +326,8002014 +3.1% +352,7002015 +2.4% +275,8002016 +1.3% +158,7002017p +2.5% +300,710

Texas Business-Cycle IndexJanuary 1987=100

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Average Y/Y rate of increase 4.8%

11

Source: The Conference Board; Haver Analytics

Texas Consumer Confidence Index

12

102030405060708090

100110120130140150160

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Weekly Active Texas Rig Count & Price of WTI

13

11/21/2014, 906

5/20/2016, 173

6/27/2014, 106.69

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120$130$140$150$160$170$180

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950

1,000

1/7/

2000

3/31

/200

06/

23/2

000

9/15

/200

012

/8/2

000

3/2/

2001

5/25

/200

18/

17/2

001

11/9

/200

12/

1/20

024/

26/2

002

7/19

/200

210

/11/

2002

1/3/

2003

3/28

/200

36/

20/2

003

9/12

/200

312

/5/2

003

2/27

/200

45/

21/2

004

8/13

/200

411

/5/2

004

1/28

/200

54/

22/2

005

7/15

/200

510

/7/2

005

12/3

0/20

053/

24/2

006

6/16

/200

69/

8/20

0612

/1/2

006

2/23

/200

75/

18/2

007

8/10

/200

711

/2/2

007

1/25

/200

84/

18/2

008

7/11

/200

810

/3/2

008

12/2

6/20

083/

20/2

009

6/12

/200

99/

4/20

0911

/25/

2009

2/19

/201

05/

14/2

010

8/6/

2010

10/2

9/20

101/

21/2

011

4/15

/201

17/

8/20

119/

30/2

011

12/2

2/20

113/

16/2

012

6/8/

2012

8/31

/201

211

/21/

2012

2/15

/201

35/

10/2

013

8/2/

2013

10/2

5/20

131/

17/2

014

4/11

/201

47/

3/20

149/

26/2

014

12/1

9/20

143/

13/2

015

6/5/

2015

8/28

/201

511

/20/

2015

2/12

/201

65/

6/20

167/

29/2

016

10/2

1/20

161/

13/2

017

4/7/

2017

6/30

/201

79/

22/2

017

Rig Count(left)

WTI $/bl. (right)

Rig Count up 286, +165% since May 2016

Source: Baker Hughes; EIA; RE Center at Texas A&M University

Current and Futures Price of WTI

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep-

13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep-

14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Sep-

17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Ave

rage

Mon

thly

Pric

e

Cushing Spot Price 6-Month Futures12-Month Futures 2-Year Futures

Sources: EIA; Haver Analytics 14

Bryan-College Station Economy

College Station-Bryan Employment by Industry

Mining, Logging and Construction, 7%

Manufacturing, 5%

Trade, Transportation, and

Utilities, 14%

Information, 1%

Financial Activities, 3%

Professional and Business Services,

9%

Education and Health Services, 10%

Leisure and Hospitality, 13%

Other Services, 3%

Government, 35%

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

B-CS Annual Jobs

62,50064,800

66,70069,700

71,90072,90074,00077,300

81,10083,400

86,00087,40088,70089,30090,40092,20093,100

95,10098,900100,600101,700101,200102,000

105,900109,200

111,800113,700

116,663

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,00019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

17p

17Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Employment continues to expand2.4% 2015 & 1.7% 2016, ~2.6% 2017

B-CS Monthly Jobs

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000Ja

n-98

Jul-9

8Ja

n-99

Jul-9

9Ja

n-00

Jul-0

0Ja

n-01

Jul-0

1Ja

n-02

Jul-0

2Ja

n-03

Jul-0

3Ja

n-04

Jul-0

4Ja

n-05

Jul-0

5Ja

n-06

Jul-0

6Ja

n-07

Jul-0

7Ja

n-08

Jul-0

8Ja

n-09

Jul-0

9Ja

n-10

Jul-1

0Ja

n-11

Jul-1

1Ja

n-12

Jul-1

2Ja

n-13

Jul-1

3Ja

n-14

Jul-1

4Ja

n-15

Jul-1

5Ja

n-16

Jul-1

6Ja

n-17

Jul-1

7Ja

n-18

Jobs

12-

MM

A

18Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Annual Employment Growth Rates

-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10A

pr-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11A

pr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12A

pr-1

2Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13A

pr-1

3Ju

l-13

Oct

-13

Jan-

14A

pr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15A

pr-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16A

pr-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan-

17A

pr-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

19Source: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas

US

CS-B

Texas Demographics

Texas Population 1910-2050

3,896,542

11,196,730

25,145,56127,469,114

30,541,978

37,155,084

44,955,896

54,369,297

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

21

From 1970 to 2010 (40 years), Texas added 13.9 million people –an average rate of 349,000 per year

From 2010 to 2050 (40 years), Texas will add nearly 30 million people –an average rate of about 750,000 per year

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections (2000-2010 Scenario)

Percent Change from 2010 to 2050 by Age Groups in the Texas Population

116.2%

79.6%105.1% 112.5%

262.9%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

ALL <18 18-44 45-64 65+

22Sources: Texas State Demographer’s Office 2014 Projections 1.0 Scenario; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

In 2014, Texas ranked as the 3rd

“youngest” state with a median age of 34.2 as well as the 48th “oldest” state with 11.5% > 65 years old

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

23Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

Overall Growth and Change in State Population 2010-2050

Texas D‐FW Houston Austin San AntonioPopulation Population

% of State Total Population



% of State Total

2010 25,145,561 6,426,214 25.6% 5,920,416 23.5% 1,716,289 6.8% 2,142,508 8.5%

2020 30,541,978 7,920,671 25.9% 7,413,214 24.3% 2,306,857 7.6% 2,635,183 8.6%

2030 37,155,084 9,970,678 26.8% 9,278,789 25.0% 3,035,547 8.2% 3,182,644 8.6%

2040 44,955,896 12,728,992 28.3% 11,519,566 25.6% 3,960,317 8.8% 3,735,981 8.3%

2050 54,369,297 16,367,293 30.1% 14,221,267 26.2% 5,176,940 9.5% 4,294,232 7.9%

Increase 29,223,736 9,941,079 34.0% 8,300,851 28.4% 3,460,651 11.8% 2,151,724 7.4%

Total Percent Increase

116.2% 154.7% 140.2% 201.6% 100.4%

24Sources: U. S. Census; Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections (2000-2010 Scenario)

82% of total increase will go to the Major MSAs

College Station-Bryan Population: 2010-2050

Year Total Population2010 228,6602015 251,2522020 278,8432025 307,6762030 337,0712035 366,3772040 398,0662045 433,6162050 472,029

Sources: Texas State Demographers Office, 2000-2010 Projections; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

220,777 or 88% increase 2015-2050

CS-B Projected Population by Age

54,29362,979

73,73384,323

92,418 96,104 100,690107,933

118,280

155,904165,334

176,813188,878

204,621

226,416

250,158

275,327

297,212

1,373 1,795 2,125 2,434 2,304 2,418 2,445 3,183 4,1260

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0-18 19-64 65+

Sources: Texas State Demographers Office, 2000-2010 Projections; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

0-18 +118%19-64 +91%65+ +201%

27

Texas Housing Market

REC’s Economic Crystal Ball:U.S. Economy…

28

August Closed Sales Texas MSAsY/Y Percent Change

Texas August Sales -6%

Source: BCS Regional Association of

REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real

Estate Center at Texas A&M University

August Closed Sales Texas CountiesY/Y Percent Change

Texas August Sales -6%




Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

103,344102,789110,830

120,749126,525

126,279

142,940151,861

177,179

191,189195,568204,084209,438

224,215

250,380

277,649

304,762

286,778

241,666

221,768211,640213,396

247,090

287,235296,828

309,518

323,607

$50,000

$70,000

$90,000

$110,000

$130,000

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

$250,000

$270,000

$290,000

$310,000

$330,000

50,00070,00090,000

110,000130,000150,000170,000190,000210,000230,000250,000270,000290,000310,000330,00019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

16

Sales Avg Price Md Price

Annual Texas Home Sales

31

Pre-Harvey:Sales +3.7%Prices +7%Post-HarveySales -1.3%Prices +7%

Monthly Sales in Texas

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

27,000

30,000

33,000

36,000

39,000Ja

nuar

y

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r


2017

2014

2016

2015Interesting turn‐down June to July in 2016 & 2017

Through AugustSales +3.6%Av. Pr. +6.5%Md. Pr. +7.2%

Texas Monthly SF Existing Sales & Pending Sales 1 Month Earlier

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,00038,000

Jan-

13Fe

b-13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep-

13O

ct-1

3N

ov-1

3D

ec-1

3Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

n-16

Jul-1

6A

ug-1

6Se

p-16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec

-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Apr

-17

May

-17

Jun-

17Ju

l-17

Aug

-17

Sep-

17O

ct-1

7N

ov-1

7D

ec-1

7Ja

n-18

Closed Sale Date (Pending Listings 1 Month Earlier)

Sales Pending Listings 1 Mo. Earlier


Texas SF Building Permits

34

67,87066,161

78,714

103,252

84,565

67,96459,143

43,97535,90836,65838,233

46,209

59,543

69,96470,45270,421

83,13282,228

99,912101,928108,782111,915

122,913

137,493

151,384

166,203163,032

120,366

81,107

68,23068,170

67,254

81,926

93,478103,045

105,448106,511

60,419

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,00019

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

17YT

D

Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

2014 +10%2015 +2%2016 +1%2017YTD +14%

1990-2015 average 95,106/year

Texas MF Building Permits: Making Up the Difference?

35

8,2739,3048,291

13,879

30,16531,28132,521

40,245

51,576

40,715

28,381

33,95835,79137,537

33,036

38,671

47,271

53,196

46,918

15,83719,741

30,729

54,14553,615

64,13566,792

55,633

26,352

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

YTD

Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

2014 +20%2015 +4%2016 -16%2017YTD -5%

1995-2015 average 40,766/year

Nationally, ~12.5% are Class B/C

Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes

Jan 2000=100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-

00Ju

l-00

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Leading Index

Coincident Index

Total Housing Permits (12-MMA)

36

37

The B-CS Housing Market

CS-B MSA Annual Home SalesCS-B MSA: Brazos, Burleson & Robertson Counties

1,3031,356

1,093988915

755678609595621636638

720

9541,124

1,0161,0711,1191,171

1,3951,3641,2991,403

1,549

1,833

2,0812,186

2,5582,4882,444

2,1491,9731,929

2,295

2,901

3,1653,3173,244

2,477

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

17YT

D

Tremendous increase in sales volume since 2011: 2012 +19%; 2013 +26%; 2014 +9%; 2015 +5%; 2016 down ~2%17YTD +3.6%

Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

CS-B MSA Annual Home SalesCS-B MSA: Brazos, Burleson & Robertson Counties

1,6021,905

2,455 2,585 2,697 2,6792,099

327390

446580 620 565

376

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,50020

11

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

17YT

D

Existing New


17%17%

15%18% 19% 17%

1,929

2,295

2,9013,165

3,317 3,244

15%

2,475 +3.6%

CS-B Monthly Home Sales

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r


2014

2015

20162017

2017 YTD +3.6%

2017 CS-B Home Sales by Price

0

25

50

75

100

125Ja

nuar

y

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999$200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $499,999$500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 +


B-CS Months’ Inventory

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Jan-

00Ju

l-00

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

43Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at

Texas A&M University

CS-B August Sales and Months Inventory by Price Interval

44

Sales Months Inventory


CS-B Months Inventory by Price

012345678910111213141516

0123456789

10111213141516

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

n-16

Jul-1

6A

ug-1

6Se

p-16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec

-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Apr

-17

May

-17

Jun-

17Ju

l-17

Aug

-17

$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999$150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999$400,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $399,999


2017 Active Listings by Price

020406080

100120140160180200220240260280300

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

$0 - $69,999

$70,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 +


B-CS Median Home Prices

$62,015$61,798$67,420

$72,444$77,052$79,768$83,845$83,084

$88,481$94,899

$101,686

$115,447$114,692$121,713$122,363

$128,238$133,549$137,648

$142,796$147,959$150,762$150,000$152,900

$159,000$166,500

$184,475

$204,900$215,000

$50,000$60,000$70,000$80,000$90,000

$100,000$110,000$120,000$130,000$140,000$150,000$160,000$170,000$180,000$190,000$200,000$210,000$220,000$230,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

YTD

47

2015 & 2016 +11%2017YTD +6.4%


CS-B Monthly Median Home Price12-Month Moving Average

$70,000

$90,000

$110,000

$130,000

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000Ja

n-95

Jul-9

5Ja

n-96

Jul-9

6Ja

n-97

Jul-9

7Ja

n-98

Jul-9

8Ja

n-99

Jul-9

9Ja

n-00

Jul-0

0Ja

n-01

Jul-0

1Ja

n-02

Jul-0

2Ja

n-03

Jul-0

3Ja

n-04

Jul-0

4Ja

n-05

Jul-0

5Ja

n-06

Jul-0

6Ja

n-07

Jul-0

7Ja

n-08

Jul-0

8Ja

n-09

Jul-0

9Ja

n-10

Jul-1

0Ja

n-11

Jul-1

1Ja

n-12

Jul-1

2Ja

n-13

Jul-1

3Ja

n-14

Jul-1

4Ja

n-15

Jul-1

5Ja

n-16

Jul-1

6Ja

n-17

Jul-1

7Ja

n-18

48

Averaged about 0.4% per month or 4.7% per year appreciation since 1995


Price RangePercent Distribution

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016$0 - $69,999 8.3 7.9 6.4 5.4 5.4 4.3

$70,000 - $99,999 8.6 8.4 6.7 6.7 6.0 4.6

$100,000 - $149,999 33.0 31.2 28.4 24.3 16.1 12.4

$150,000 - $199,999 27.4 28.3 32.5 31.5 31.0 26.9

$200,000 - $249,999 10.0 9.8 10.0 12.2 16.8 22.9

$250,000 - $299,999 4.6 5.4 5.5 6.5 10.5 10.2

$300,000 - $399,999 4.4 5.0 5.2 6.8 7.4 11.0

$400,000 - $499,999 1.9 2.0 2.6 3.6 3.3 3.3

$500,000 - $749,999 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.8

$750,000 - $999,999 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5

$1,000,000 + 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at

Texas A&M University

CS-B Sales by Price Distribution

87%

13%

71%

18%

CS-B Household Income Distribution

Income CohortsNumber of

HouseholdsCumulative

HouseholdsPercent of

TotalCumulative

PercentLess than $10,000 9,675 9,675 10.6% 10.6%$10,000 to $14,999 5,824 15,499 6.4% 17.0%$15,000 to $19,999 5,222 20,721 5.7% 22.8%$20,000 to $24,999 7,017 27,738 7.7% 30.5%$25,000 to $29,999 4,366 32,104 4.8% 35.3%$30,000 to $34,999 6,139 38,243 6.7% 42.0%$35,000 to $39,999 4,256 42,499 4.7% 46.7%$40,000 to $44,999 4,514 47,013 5.0% 51.6%$45,000 to $49,999 2,981 49,994 3.3% 54.9%$50,000 to $59,999 5,959 55,953 6.5% 61.5%$60,000 to $74,999 6,251 62,204 6.9% 68.3%$75,000 to $99,999 9,303 71,507 10.2% 78.6%$100,000 to $124,999 5,743 77,250 6.3% 84.9%$125,000 to $149,999 4,212 81,462 4.6% 89.5%$150,000 to $199,999 4,171 85,633 4.6% 94.1%$200,000 or more 5,400 91,033 5.9% 100.0%

50Source: US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Median Household Income = $42,233

CS-B Households by Highest Affordable Price

22.6

10.1

8.2

6.6

4.5

4.4

6.3

5.7

8.2

5.1

4.2

5.2

0 5 10 15 20 25

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000

Thousands of Households

51Source: US Census Bureau 2015 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

24.8%

11.1%

9.0%

7.2%

5.0%

4.8%

6.9%

6.2%

9.0%

5.6%

20% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities

4.6%

5.7%

~52% of CS-B HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000

Median Income of $42,233 can afford home priced at $138,578


24.2

10.5

7.9

6.3

4.8

4.0

6.5

6.0

7.7

4.5

3.6

5.1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000


52Source: US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

26.6%

11.5%

8.7%

6.9%

5.3%

4.4%

7.1%

6.6%

8.4%

4.9%


3.9%

5.6%

~54% of CS-B HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000



25.0

10.7

7.8

6.1

4.9

3.8

6.5

6.1

7.3

4.3

3.2

5.1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000


53Source: US Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

27.5%

11.8%

8.6%

6.7%

5.4%

4.2%

7.2%

6.7%

8.0%

4.7%


3.6%

5.6%

~55% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000


Bryan

CollegeStation

Caldwell

Hearne

Navasota




Home Sales by Zip Code, CS-B MSAY/Y % Change, August 2017

August Sales -20%YTD Sales +3.6%

September(p) -5.6%

Bryan

CollegeStation

Navasota




Home Sales Brazos CountyY/Y % Change, August 2017

August Sales -25%YTD Sales +2%

Bryan

CollegeStation

Caldwell

Hearne

Navasota

Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

University

Home Sales Price/Sq. Ft. CS-B MSA by Zip Code

Y/Y % Change December 2016

August P/SF +6.6%YTD P/SF +4.7%

CS-B Single-Family Building Permits

619

772

947936

280264239226233229224280

493

619606550

614

775 783776763856

999

1,156

892

802

920891814

727777

619

784824

1,014

1,2091,218

775

100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,400

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

17YT

D

2016 Record Year! Double 2011 level2017YTD -5.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

CS-B Single-Family Building Permits

763

856

999

1,156

892

802

920891

814

727777

619

784824

1,014

1,209 1,218

775

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,40020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

17YT

D

2016 Record Year! Double 2011 level2017YTD -5.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

MLS New Home Sales Brazos CountySeptember 2016 – August 2017

Bryan

CollegeStation

Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

New Home Statistics

Month SalesAverage Price

Y/Y % Price Change

Avg.DoM

Sept. 2016 19 $364,504 7.7% 81

Oct. 22 $384,734 29.5% 86

Nov. 21 $397,542 54.1% 121

Dec. 30 $340,203 8.2% 91

January 15 $338,618 -5.2% 84

February 19 $349,714 8.6% 117

March 43 $362,973 19.4% 159

April 42 $365,330 19.1% 118

May 37 $345,859 13.3% 85

June 43 $339,759 4.2% 121

July 33 $354,025 -0.4% 130

August 31 $369,866 -3.0% 73

B-CS Multi-Family Building Permits

164

938

470

739

338

767842

620 591

840

728

300

821

665

1,036

1,344

109

218

825

1,236

852 831

503

1,642

1,910

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

17YT

D

2017YTD +356 units; +23%2-4 Units -47% to ~305 units;5+ Units +36% to ~1,315 units

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M (2-4 units + 5+ units)

Membership Luncheon

October 5, 2017

61

Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist

recenter.tamu.edu

dr. james p. gaines membership chief luncheon october … realtors association october 5... · dr....

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