Maize in Asia: Trends,
Challenges and Opportunities
BM Prasanna Director, Global Maize Program
CIMMYT, Int. Email: [email protected]
Maize in the Developing World
• About 73 per cent of 153 million ha of maize area worldwide in 2010 was located in the developing world.
• Together with rice and wheat, maize provides at least 30% of the food calories to more than 4.5 billion people in 94 developing countries.
• Preferred staple food to 900 million poor people (< 2 USD per day)
Maize in Asia
Country Area
(mha)
Production
(mmt)
Yield
(t/ha)
India 8.50 21.00 2.47
Indonesia 3.15 8.40 2.67
Philippines 2.65 6.80 2.57
Pakistan 1.05 3.00 2.86
Nepal 0.85 1.70 2.00
Bhutan 0.04 0.07 1.56
Afghanistan 0.15 0.30 2.00
Source: USDA (Dec 2010)
Country Area
(mha)
Production
(mmt)
Yield
(t/ha)
China 31.50 168.00 5.33
Vietnam 1.20 5.50 4.58
Thailand 0.97 3.90 4.02
Laos 0.31 1.55 5.00
Cambodia 0.18 0.70 3.89
Turkey 0.49 4.00 8.15
USA 32.89 318.52 9.69
Developing 111.70 405.93 3.63
World 152.51 765.47 5.02
Countries <3 t/ha Countries >3 t/ha
Eight major maize-producing countries in Asia – China, India, Indonesia,
Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam –together, now
produce 98% of Asia’s maize and 26% of global maize.
Each dot equals 50,000 ha
Maize becomes No.1 crop in China since 2007
Chinese maize belt
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, 2010
The ever increasing demand
• During 2003-08, maize production increased annually by 6.0% in Asia, as compared to 5.0% in Latin America, and 2.3% in sub-Saharan Africa.
Between now and 2050, the
demand for maize in the
developing world will double,
and by 2025 maize will have
become the crop with the highest
production in the developing
world (~490-500 mmt)!
Maize consumption in China
Drivers for maize demand in Asia
Maize use for feed in the seven major Asian countries (China,
India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam)
has more than tripled from 29 m t in 1980 to 109 m t in 2000!
Impressive progress in India, but not quite enough!
Source: Dr Sain Dass
Poultry production in India
2002 2009
(in millions)
Broiler 1250 2000
Layer 155 290
Broiler breeder 9.25 15.9
Layer breeder 1.6 3.2
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
1995
2000
2005
2.65 m t 8.3 % growth
Egg production
1150
1350
1550
1750
1950
2150
2350
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Broiler production
2.4 m t 8.5 % growth
Volatility of Maize Prices
Maize imports for developing country
economies will increase 24% by 2050 –
equalling USD 30 billion.
In order to meet global demands,
we will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
Food security is at risk due to climate change....
Drought => large annual yield fluctuations in both sub-Saharan Africa and Asia
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Gra
in y
ield
(t
ha
-1)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Maize
Rice
Wheat
Alleviating the effects of drought alone could increase average maize
yields by 35% across “Asia-7” (excluding China), and by 28% in Southwest
China (Gerpacio and Pingali, 2007).
Heat stress is becoming an increasing reality, coupled with drought stress, in many maize growing regions in Asia…
• Episodes of intense rainfall, leading to flooding
• 20 million ha affected in South and Southeast Asia
Excess water – a recurring theme in some regions
Waterlogging-prone areas in South & SE Asia
An array of biotic stresses in the tropics and subtropics
TLB GLS
Ear rots Weevils
Special Issue: Climate Change and Plant Diseases
Stress seldom comes alone….
Reduced yields
Mycotoxins
Ear rots – low quality
Stressed plants
Drought & Heat Stress
Mycotoxin contamination
Kenya Malawi Nigeria Uganda Ghana Indonesia Nepal Mexico
Production (M tons)
2,367,237 3,444,655 7,525,000 1,266,000 1,100,00 17,659,067 1,878,648 24,320,100
Grain loss (%) 20-25 20-25 5-10 20-25 5-10 6-17 4-22 10-25
Mycotoxin incidence (%)
25-30% above 20 ppb
9% above 20 ppb aflatoxin
27% 30% above 20 ppb; 50%
up to 10 ppb aflatoxin
65-80%; 30-2000 ppb aflatoxin
47%; >50 ppb aflatoxin
50-83%; >50 ppb aflatoxin
20-89%; >20 ppb aflatoxin
A serious problem in many maize-growing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, affecting long-term health of humans and animals, trade and export markets.
Sustainability Concerns
• Water: Lowering water
tables and reduced
availability of water for
agricultural purposes
• Nutrient depletion:
Nepal, NE India,
Myanmar, NE
Thailand….
• Soil erosion: S China,
SE Asia
• Deforestation: SE Asia
• Increasing fertilizer
costs, fertilizer scarcity
An era of challenges will always be an era of uncommon opportunities!!
Abiotic stress tolerant germplasm being
developed through managed stress screening…
Drought
Waterlogging
Heat
Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties for Africa
53 Drought tolerant maize varieties developed under DTMA
by CIMMYT & IITA in partnership with 13 African countries,
occupying nearly 2 million hectares.
CIMMYT DT Maize Lines suitable for South & SE Asia
Elite DT lines from CIMMYT-Mexico,
Zimbabwe & Kenya evaluated for drought
tolerance
Lines from CIMMYT DT-populations,
adapted to the tropical Asian region:
• Early maturity – Yellow (Pool 18 Seq)
• Early maturity – white (Pool 16 BN Seq)
• Medium maturity – Yellow (DTPY c9)
• Medium maturity – white (DTPW c9)
• Late maturity – Yellow (Pool 26 Seq)
• Late maturity – White (LP C7& TS c5)
PH Zaidi & team, CIMMYT-India
Emphasis on heat tolerance of elite products
DTMA Pedigree GY (t ha-1)
91 CML311/MBR C3 Bc F12-2-2-2 0.63
238 DTPYC9-F46-1-2-1-2 0.59
. La Posta Seq C7-F64-2-6-2-2 0.55
62 CML435 0.49
231 DTPYC9-F143-5-4-1-2 0.46
44 CML442 0.19
Trial mean 0.24
Combined heat and drought donors
Drought tolerance ≠ heat tolerance ≠ Drought + heat tolerance
Philippines takes lead in approving / commercializing
Bt maize and Glyphosate tolerant maize
In Philippines, about 200,000 small farmers planted 350,000
hectares (ha) of Bt maize farms in 2008, as compared to the
10,769 ha in 2003, when the crop was approved for
commercialization. (ISAAA)
Disease Phenotyping
Improved maize germplasm from CIMMYT-Colombia, Mexico and
Zimbabwe helps hill maize farmers in Nepal and Bhutan…
Yellow QPM variety
Non-QPM Variety (ICAV305)
On-farm trials of two GLS-resistant maize varieties in the hills of Bhutan,
along with local check Yangtsipa
Gray Leaf Spot
Maize Streak Virus
Turcicum Leaf Blight
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
0e
+0
01
e-0
42
e-0
43
e-0
44
e-0
45
e-0
46
e-0
4
Sliding windows-chromosome 2
Marker
Va
r
Fine mapping and
developing breeder-
ready markers for some
major maize diseases
Nutritionally enriched maize in Asia
Poshilo Makai-1 Yunrui-1 (QPM + GLS resistance) Yunrui-8 (QPM + high oil)
QPM version of Vivek Hybrid-
9 (using CML as donors) HQPM-1 (parents derived using
CML161 and CML163)
MAS in breeding for Provitamin A enriched maize
+
+
MAS for LycE MAS for CrtRB1
Deep
orange
ears
Increase in β-carotene
from 1-2 ppm to >10 ppm
Science (20 Nov 2009)
Palomero genome about 22% (140 Mb) smaller than that of B73. Large number of unreported sequences => large pool of unexplored genetic diversity
Next-generation sequencing and HT genotyping
Solexa
454/FLX
AB SOLiDTM
Genotyping-by-Sequencing
• GBS developed at Cornell
– data for 500,000 SNPs
and indels for $30 per
sample at 96-plex
sequencing (low depth,
high coverage).
• Buckler lab is successfully
implementing 384-plex
sequencing, which should
reduce run costs to
<$15/sample.
• GBS cheaper than yield
testing at one location!
Genomic Selection
● Proposed by
Meuwissen et al.
(2001)
● Complete coverage
of genome with
markers – high
density genotyping
● All QTL in linkage
disequilibrium with at
least one marker
● No QTL size
thresholds needed
● No concerns of
missing heritability
and Beavis effect
Rapid-cycle genomic selection
DH technology for accelerated maize breeding
DH line development with in vivo
haploid induction approach
Induction of haploidy
Artificial chromosome doubling
Haploid
plants
Doubled
haploid
plants
Donor Inducer
Coupling DH development with MAS for key traits can greatly
enhance breeding efficiency.
Temperate inducer
Tropically adapted haploid inducers
New tropical Inducer lines
Induction rate ~10%
George Mahuku and Team at CIMMYT-Mexico, in collaboration with Univ. of Hohenheim
Phenotypic capabilities are evolving!
Development of a new
generation of
automated / semi-
automated technologies
to monitor plant
characteristics and
performance
Precision phenotyping
• Advances in phenotyping
should not be construed
only from the viewpoint of
instrumentation.
• Characterizing field sites,
experimental designs,
selection of appropriate
traits, and statistical
methodologies, all have an
equally important role to
play in phenotypic data
collection and utilization.
Seeds of Discovery (SeeD), a project funded by Mexico for the benefit of the World Maize Community
Cultivars
Breeding Programs Introgression
Pipeline
Gene Bank
Parental stocks Accessions Breeding materials
Web Portal
Information
Trait values
Environ-mental adaptation
Genetic makeup
Common backgrounds
Generating high quality phenotypic data of genetically heterogeneous populations
Genotyping/resequencing using next-generation sequencers Identifying favorable alleles/haplotypes for developing improved
germplasm with a broader genetic base
Conservation agriculture and enabling policies have to complement genetic enhancement
• Improving system productivity
• Nutrient cycling
• Site specific nutrient management
• Increased fertilizer, water and fuel use
efficiencies
SIMLESA
CSISA
Farmer in Gujarat accessing the web (IBM India, 2010)
Precision agriculture for smallholders possible….
Human Resources in Asia
“It is not the strongest of the species who
survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one
most responsive to change.”
Let us be the difference we want to make to the world!