WATER SECURITY, RISK AND SOCIETY Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
16 - 18th April 2012
Communication of climate change projections
for building water management PROBLEM: Buildings and the people in them need water and future non-mains water, for instance rainwater may become increasingly important. In
order to take advantage of rainwater, engineers need to use climate projections to understand the availability of rain. The latest projections are probabilistic which adds an extra complexity in their interpretation.
M. Shamash M.Sc. B.Sc.
UKCIP/CIBSE (KTP Associate)
Dr A. Mylona ArchEng PhD
CIBSE/UKCIP
G.Metcalf M.Sc. Dip Arch
UKCIP
The project is a Knowledge Transfer
Partnership (KTP) between UKCIP at
University of Oxford and CIBSE and is
funded by CIBSE, the Engineering and
Physical Science Research Council
(EPSRC) and the Technology Strategy
Board (TSB) www.ktponline.org.uk/
Have you got any thoughts on ProCliPs? We would appreciate comments on the material contained in this poster to be sent to Maria at [email protected]
Telephone: 020 8772 3645
Postal address: Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 222 Balham High Road, London SW12 9BS.
The probabilistic approach in the
latest UK Climate projections
Figure 1: Cumulative distribution function, and frequency
distribution for change in temperature (Jenkins, G.J et al, 2009
UK Climate Projections: Briefing report. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter,
BELFAST Precipitation ProCliPs (Probabilistic climate profiles)
POSTER KEY POINTS
The climate data can tell us about the sensitivity of a particular climate variable e.g. mean air temperature to 1) different future time
periods, 2) different emissions scenarios and 3) the newly introduced probability levels in the UKCP09 climate projections
The ProCliP graphs developed by this project show us these sensitivities for a particular location
The latest UK Climate projections (UKCP09) are the first
probabilistic projections for the UK meaning that data is
presented as a probability range (e.g. 10% level through to
90% level)
looked at some of the latest data on global emissions2 suggested to that the high emissions
is most likely until the 2050s.
Emissions scenario selection for tank sizing design development: High emissions scenario
Probability level considerations: In the ProCliPs the probability level has a large influence on
the precipitation, for instance in winter in the 2050s the difference in daily precipitation is
over 1.5mm. The information from the 10% and 90% probability levels is useful for design
development in considering how the building will cope if there is higher or lower levels of
rainfall, (or snow, etc.) in addition to the 50% probability level or central estimate.
Probability level selection for tank sizing design development: 10%, 50% + 90%
Design development consists of using the figures in the table below for tank
sizing calculations, which also requires roof size, and water demand inputs.
2 John Cook, Skeptical science: getting sceptical about global warming skepticism, Blog 2011
available at; http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=779
Project methods
Data was taken from the Met Office UKCIP data from the UK Climate Projections User Interface1 for the baseline weather values (period 1961-90) and from the UKCP09 User Interface, for future climate projections including precipitation.
The ProCliPs present future projections three time periods (2020s for 2010-2039, 2050 for 2040-2069, 2080 for 2070 -2099) and emissions scenario (low, medium, high) probability level (10th, 33rd 50th, 66th, 90th percentiles) for different UK locations from the available 25km grid.
In an additional activity case studies were chosen and developed using the above re-formatted information together with project considerations to enable recommendations for further analysis. 1 UK Climate Projections User Interface available (registration required)
at: http://ukclimateprojections-ui.defra.gov.uk/ui/admin/login.php
EDINBURGH Precipitation ProCliPs (Probabilistic climate profiles)
LONDON Precipitation ProCliPs (Probabilistic climate profiles)
Introducing probabilistic climate profile (ProCliP) graphs…..
The graphs are developed by this project from UKCP09 data available from Defra’s UK Climate
Projections User Interface (links at bottom of page). They are ;
Figure 2: Location is one of
25km grids across the UK
(Defra, Crown copyright)
location specific, see figure 2
climate variable specific
compare baseline values from 1961-90
period
Show three time periods, emissions
scenarios and five probability levels
Figure 3: ProCliP for London summer mean daily maximum
temperature (produced by this project)
The latest climate projections
for the UK are probabilistic in
approach, with probability data
on each climate variable
derived from a cumulative
frequency function for each.
However this information is not
is in a format that building
professionals are likely to use.
CARDIFF Precipitation ProCliPs (Probabilistic climate profiles)
Use of ProCliP in water management design
development
The ProCliP graphs as well as helping building designers to gain
initial familiarity with the possible future climates can form part
of the design development. In this case study we see how its
use by designers of a hotel who are considering rainwater
harvesting.
Case study
Location: Cardiff
Building type: New build hotel
Aspect of performance under analysis: Tank
sizing for rainwater harvesting
Climate variable of interest: Precipitation
Format of data required for design development: - Annual, seasonal
precipitation (mm)
These are the ProCliPs relevant to the design development of
this aspect of performance.
Time period considerations: The client wants the hotel to be designed for a 60
year lifespan. In Spring and Autumn the shape of the graph does not change
significantly between 2020s and 2050s, so using only one of these periods
(the most different to the base data therefore 2050s) could be a way of
reducing the number of variables used.
Time period selection for tank sizing design development: Winter - 2020s +
2050s, Spring - 2050s, Summer - 2020s + 2050s , Autumn - 2050s
Emissions scenario considerations: Looking at the ProCliPs the similarity
between different scenarios is seen especially in the 2020s. The designers
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Base 2020s 2050s Base 2050s Base 2020s 2050s Base 2050s
Percentile
90th - v. unlikely to be more than
3.7˚C
4.6˚C 5.7˚C
2.6˚C
2.8˚C
2.7˚C
3.1˚C 2.9˚C
3.9˚C
4.9˚C
50th - Central estimate 4.0˚C 4.6˚C 2.6˚C 2.6˚C 2.2˚C 4.2˚C
10th - V. unlikely to be less than 3.6˚C 3.9˚C 2.4˚C 2.1˚C 1.6˚C 3.7˚C
