uk climate projections 2009

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RESTRICTED UK Climate Projections 2009 Daniel Barwick Defra www.defra.gov.uk/adaptatio

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Presentation by Daniel Barwick (Defra) to the third sector event on the UK Climate Projections tools. Defra's Innovation Centre Reading 28 July 2009

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Page 1: UK Climate Projections 2009

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UK Climate Projections 2009

Daniel BarwickDefra

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 2: UK Climate Projections 2009

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Overview

• Context – Government plan on climate change

• UKCP09: what are they?

• UKCP09: the future for the UK

• Impacts and Action

• The Government programme on adapting to

climate change

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www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 3: UK Climate Projections 2009

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UK Projections part of five point plan on climate change Protect the economy, people and

the environment from immediate risk

Preparing for the future – Projections are key to this

Limit further dangerous change - achieve international agreement at Copenhagen in December

Seize opportunities for UK and build a low carbon economy

Help individuals, communities and businesses to play their part

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www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 4: UK Climate Projections 2009

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What are the Projections?

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Produced by Met Office

A range of futures – 3 emission scenarios up to 2099

Probabilities – not a weather forecast

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Maps of the UK for:

Temperature

Rainfall

Sea level

on a 25 x 25 km grid

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 5: UK Climate Projections 2009

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What emissions scenario are they based on?

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IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low

World Stabilisation Scenario

GHG IncreaseGtCO2e

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

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Temp RisedegC

Global Average Temperatures

Where we are headingWhere we are heading

IPCC Emission Scenarios

High Medium Low

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation What emissions scenario are they based on?

Page 7: UK Climate Projections 2009

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What are they based on?

Where we need to beWhere we need to be

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Temp RisedegC

Global Average Temperatures

Some change is certain

Some change is certain

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 8: UK Climate Projections 2009

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Summer average temperature

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3 to 4ºCincrease

4 to 5ºCincrease

2 to 3ºCincrease

South-East England central estimate

Medium emissions

But we could see 5 times the number of very hot days & the hottest day of the year could be up to 10ºC higher

Unlikely to be less than 2.00C or greater than 6.40C for SE 2080s

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 9: UK Climate Projections 2009

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Summer Temperatures in context

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Source Met Office Hadley Centre

Observed temperatures

Simulated temperatures

2040s

2060s

2003We are already committed to this from past emissions alone

We are already committed to this from past emissions alone

35 000 people died across Northern Europe in the August heat-wave of 2003 – effective planning is essential

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 10: UK Climate Projections 2009

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Summer rainfall

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20 to 30%decrease

30% to 40%decrease

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10% to 20%decrease

South Westcentral estimate

Medium emissions

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 11: UK Climate Projections 2009

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Winter rainfall

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10% to 20%increase

20% to 30%increase 11

0% to 10%decrease

North West central estimate

Medium Emissions

But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 12: UK Climate Projections 2009

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Sea level rise – London

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High++ scenario: 2100

Rises up to 1.9 meters

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Central Estimate Worst Case www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

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Our approach to dealing with impacts is about managing risk across the economy, it is not a ‘green’ issue

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

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What are we doing already?

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www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 15: UK Climate Projections 2009

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What are the opportunities?

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www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 16: UK Climate Projections 2009

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Government programme on adapting to climate change

Departmental Adaptation

plans

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

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Adaptation Reporting Power

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• Key sectors to report on the impacts to them of climate change

• Primary lever for Govt

• Consultation happening now

Current Vulnerability to Climate Change

Responsible for National Infrastructure

No Existing

Comprehensive Regulation Relating to Adaptation

EnergyWaterElectronic communicationsEmergenciesHealth & social careTransportEnvironment

EnergyWaterElectronic communicationsEmergenciesHealth & social careTransportEnvironment

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

Page 18: UK Climate Projections 2009

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Key messages

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The costs of failing to adapt will be high

Global deal at Copenhagen is critical

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation