Download - AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011
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The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009
January 2011 Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
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Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)
to January 2011
• The fieldwork was conducted 10th-17th
January 2011
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
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A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
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A Matter of Measurement
April’09 77% Jan‘11 56%
April’09 14% Jan’11 23%
April’09 8% Jan’11 18%
April’09 1% Jan’11 2%
April’09 0% Jan’11 1%
• January 2011 has seen a modest recovery from December 2010 in terms the prospects
for recovery, but remains low relative to this time last year.
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• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges
from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• The Indicator has recovered all the ground lost during November/December 2010.
8.3
17.8
1517
18.419.6
17.818.3
27.1
22.723.523.8 23.8
25.326
24
19.2
16.3
7.3
12
17.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr '09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '11
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
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34%41%44% 42%43% 46%48%
41% 43%52%
41% 42% 43% 42% 42%
42%39%
31%26% 18%
23%26%
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '11
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60% 62% 55%
51%51%
61%
55% 54%52% 53%
54% 55%
50% 46% 44%33%
41%48%
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '11
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 1
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48% 48%51% 47%48% 48%46%45% 45% 50%
47% 43%47%45%
45%47%
46%41% 41%
32% 34%39%
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '11
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 2
59%
62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56%
52%
56% 55%53% 55%
53% 51% 50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45% 45%49%
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '11
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
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Percent of adults who agree with each statement: December 2010 & January 2011
11% 13%
Dec '10 Jan '11
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
55% 58%
Dec '10 Jan '11
Now is a good time to buy a house for those who
want to
23% 22%
Dec '10 Jan '11
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
21% 22%
Dec '10 Jan '11
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to 58% 59%
Dec '10 Jan '11
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
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The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to January 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr '09
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '11
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
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The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to January 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr '09
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '11
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
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Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
W. www.amarach.com
B. www.amarach.com/blog