document no 11/6757/001/gla/o/r/003...2.2.6 hydrology 13 3 national guidance, policies and...

Document No 11/6757/001/GLA/O/R/003

Issue : B1

University of Strathclyde

Malawi Renewable Energy Acceleration Programme (M-REAP) - Wind Energy

Preparation Programme (WEPP)

WEPP1 - Initial Feasibility Study and Nationwide Constraints Mapping Report

September 2012

Malawi Renewable Energy Acceleration Progra

WEPP1 - Initial Feasibility Study and Nationwide Constraints Mapping

SUMMARY:

This report is designed to act as an overview to wind farm development and a guide to potential wind farm site selection within Malawi. It is hoped that thereport, in conjunction with ongoing support from SgurrEnergy, will allow the Mpartners, specifically the Malawi Department of Energy Affairs (DoEA), to identify a number of potential wind farm sites for which detailed feasibility woperformed.

SgurrEnergy has identified areas of further work within this report. Some of this falls within the current scope of Mrecommendations for further work, outside the current Mconsidered and addressed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant bodies to ensure the M-REAP project can realise its potential with respect to ascertaining the feasibility of commercial scale wind energy in Malawi.

CLIENT: University of Strathcly

CONTACT: Peter Dauenhauer, Graham Ault

DISTRIBUTION :

Client:

Peter Dauenhauer, Graham Ault

Name

Prepared by

Craig Morton

Checked by Ralph Torr

Authorised by

Richard Boddington

Chris Parcell

Date 20/09/2012

SF/04/023

225 Bath Street, Glasgow, G2 4GZ Telephone: +44 (0) 141 227 1700

www.sgurrenergy.com

Malawi Renewable Energy Acceleration Programme (M-REAP)

Initial Feasibility Study and Nationwide Constraints Mapping

This report is designed to act as an overview to wind farm development and a guide to potential wind farm site selection within Malawi. It is hoped that the contents of this report, in conjunction with ongoing support from SgurrEnergy, will allow the Mpartners, specifically the Malawi Department of Energy Affairs (DoEA), to identify a number of potential wind farm sites for which detailed feasibility wo

SgurrEnergy has identified areas of further work within this report. Some of this falls within the current scope of M-REAP and some does not. It is hoped that the recommendations for further work, outside the current M-REAP scope, can considered and addressed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant bodies to

REAP project can realise its potential with respect to ascertaining the feasibility of commercial scale wind energy in Malawi.

University of Strathclyde



SgurrEnergy:

Chris Parcell, Richard Boddington

Job Title Signature

Craig Morton Feasibility Team Leader

Ralph Torr Senior Renewable Energy

Consultant

Richard Boddington

Associate Director

Director of

Chris Parcell Feasibility and Development

/2012 Classification: Confidential

REAP)

Initial Feasibility Study and Nationwide Constraints Mapping

This report is designed to act as an overview to wind farm development and a guide to contents of this

report, in conjunction with ongoing support from SgurrEnergy, will allow the M-REAP partners, specifically the Malawi Department of Energy Affairs (DoEA), to identify a number of potential wind farm sites for which detailed feasibility work can be

SgurrEnergy has identified areas of further work within this report. Some of this falls REAP and some does not. It is hoped that the

REAP scope, can be considered and addressed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant bodies to

REAP project can realise its potential with respect to ascertaining the

Signature

Confidential

SgurrEnergy Ltd WEPP 1 – Initial Feasibility Study

11/6757/001/GLA/O/R/003 Revision B1 of 37 Certified to ISO 9001 & ISO 14001 & OHSAS 18001

AMENDMENT RECORD

Revision Date Changes from Previous Revision Purpose of Revision

A1 24/08/2012 None – First Draft Draft, for internal

review

A2 30/08/2012 Minor comments Draft, for review

A3 11/09/2012 Inclusion of final mesoscale results Draft, for authorisation

B1 20/09/2012 Minor comments Draft for partner

comment



Contents

1 INTRODUCTION 6

1.1 M-REAP Project Overview 6

1.2 WEPP Project Overview 6

1.3 Aims and Objectives of this Document 7

2 POTENTIAL WIND FARM SITE IDENTIFICATION 8

2.1 Nationwide Constraints Mapping 8

2.1.1 Airports 8

2.1.2 Environmental Designations 8

2.1.3 Population Density 9

2.1.4 Steep Slopes 9

2.1.5 Proximity to Roads 10

2.1.6 Proximity to Grid Infrastructure 10

2.2 Site-specific Considerations 11

2.2.1 Land Area 11

2.2.2 Local Cultural Heritage 11

2.2.3 Telecommunications 11

2.2.4 Proximity of Residential Properties 12

2.2.5 Infrastructure 13

2.2.6 Hydrology 13

3 NATIONAL GUIDANCE, POLICIES AND REGULATIONS 13

4 INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS AND GUIDANCE 13

4.1 Overview 13

4.2 Equator Principles 14

4.3 International Finance Corporation 14

4.4 Good Practice Wind 15

5 POTENTIAL WIND RESOURCE IN MALAWI 16

5.1 Nationwide Variation in Wind Resource 17

5.1.1 Measured Data 17

5.1.2 Mesoscale Modelling 18

5.2 Site Specific Wind Resource Considerations 19

5.2.1 Wind Quantity 19

5.2.2 Wind Quality 20

5.2.3 Summary of Guidance for Site Specific Wind Resource Considerations 20

5.3 Recommendations for further work associated with the wind resource in Malawi, out with the current scope of M-REAP 20

6 WTG CONSIDERATIONS 21

7 WTG DELIVERY AND TRANSPORTATION CONSIDERATIONS 21



8 ELECTRICITY GRID CONSIDERATIONS 22

8.1 The Existing ESCOM System 22

8.1.1 Existing Generation: 22

8.1.2 Existing Transmission and Distribution: 22

8.2 Future Grid Improvement, Extension and 220kV Interconnection: 22

8.3 Overall Technical Constraints: 22

9 COMMERCIAL CONSIDERATIONS 22

9.1 Market Overview 22

9.2 Development Strategies and Financial Implications 23

9.3 Commercial Consideration Conclusions and Recommendations 24

10 APPENDIX A – WRF MODEL OF MALAWI 34

10.1 Introduction to Large Scale Wind Resource Modelling of Malawi 34

10.2 How the WRF Mesoscale Model Works 34

10.3 Development of the WRF Mesoscale Model 35

10.4 Verification of the WRF Mesoscale Model 36

10.5 Results of the WRF Mesoscale Model 36

10.5.1 Annual Variation in Wind Speed and Direction 36

10.5.2 Daily Variation in Wind Speed and Direction 37

10.5.3 Spatial Variation in Wind Speed 37

10.6 Conclusions of the WRF Mesoscale Model Data 37

10.7 Further Development of the WRF Mesoscale Model 37



1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 M-REAP PROJECT OVERVIEW

The proposed M-REAP programme is intended to support the Government of Malawi energy strategy by supporting several aspects of renewable energy development, community energy development, rural electrification, biomass and underpinning institutional support and capacity building. The project incorporates multiple sector development activities organised as a single programme with the overall objective to:

Accelerate the growth of community and renewable energy development in Malawi through multiple, targeted and coordinated activities with good potential to provide a platform for that growth.

The programme has four main elements:

• Institutional Support Programme (ISP)

• Community Energy Development Programme (CEDP)

• Wind Energy Preparation Programme (WEPP)

• Renewable Energy Capacity Building Programme (RECB)

1.2 WEPP PROJECT OVERVIEW

The WEPP programme seeks to provide the basis for development of the wind power resource in Malawi. Information and supporting policy for wind power is at a relatively early stage and this activity (along with the Institutional Support Programme) provides the platform for development of wind power in Malawi.

The WEPP program is subdivided into four distinct phases. These are:

• WEPP1: National constraints and wind resource mapping, guidance on site selection, site selection.

• WEPP2: Measurement mast procurement, installation, data download, QC and capacity building.

• WEPP3: Detailed feasibility study works and capacity building.

• WEPP4: 'Bankable' energy yield assessments and capacity building.

SgurrEnergy Ltd

11/6757/001/GLA/O/R/003 Certified to ISO 9001 & ISO 14001 & OHSAS 18001

The flow chart below outlines the tasks and outcomes within WEPP1.how WEPP1 integrates with the WEPP2 and WEPP3 work packages.

1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THIS

This report has been prepared to support the work included in WEPP1.not a complete description of the work performed as part of WEPP1.

This report is designed to provide potential wind farm site selection within Malawi. report, in conjunction with ongoing partners, specifically the Malawi Department of Energy Affairs (DoEA), to identify a number of potential wind farm sites for which detailed feasibility work can be performed.

SgurrEnergy has identified areas of further work within this report. Some of this falls within the current scope of Mrecommendations for further work, outside the current Mconsidered and addressed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant bodies to ensure the M-REAP project can feasibility of commercial scale wind energy in Malawi.

As the M-REAP project progresses it is likely this report will be updated to ensure it remains consistent with the objectives of M

WEPP 1 – Initial Feasibility Study

Revision B1 & OHSAS 18001

outlines the tasks and outcomes within WEPP1. It also identifies how WEPP1 integrates with the WEPP2 and WEPP3 work packages.

BJECTIVES OF THIS DOCUMENT

This report has been prepared to support the work included in WEPP1. However, it is not a complete description of the work performed as part of WEPP1.

provide an overview of wind farm development and a guide to potential wind farm site selection within Malawi. It is hoped that the contents of this

ongoing support from SgurrEnergy, will allow the Mecifically the Malawi Department of Energy Affairs (DoEA), to identify a

number of potential wind farm sites for which detailed feasibility work can be performed.

SgurrEnergy has identified areas of further work within this report. Some of this falls n the current scope of M-REAP and some does not. It is hoped that the

recommendations for further work, outside the current M-REAP scope, can be considered and addressed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant bodies to

REAP project can realise its potential with respect to ascertaining the feasibility of commercial scale wind energy in Malawi.

REAP project progresses it is likely this report will be updated to ensure it remains consistent with the objectives of M-REAP.

Initial Feasibility Study

of 37

It also identifies

However, it is

wind farm development and a guide to t is hoped that the contents of this

will allow the M-REAP ecifically the Malawi Department of Energy Affairs (DoEA), to identify a

number of potential wind farm sites for which detailed feasibility work can be performed.

SgurrEnergy has identified areas of further work within this report. Some of this falls REAP and some does not. It is hoped that the

REAP scope, can be considered and addressed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant bodies to

realise its potential with respect to ascertaining the

REAP project progresses it is likely this report will be updated to ensure it



2 POTENTIAL WIND FARM SITE IDENTIFICATION

Minimising potential environmental, technical and social impacts of a wind farm project, while maximising energy generation potential and financial viability, requires informed spatial planning from the earliest stages of development.

SgurrEnergy has undertaken a nationwide constraints mapping exercise to identify areas of Malawi that are most suitable for the development of commercial scale wind turbine generators (WTGs), as part of a number of wind farms. This process is detailed in Section 2.1.

In addition to this, guidance has been provided to aid the identification of specific potential wind farm sites within the suitable areas identified in Section 2.1. This is provided in Section 2.2.

2.1 NATIONWIDE CONSTRAINTS MAPPING

In order to focus the search for potential wind farm sites, SgurrEnergy constructed a high-level constraints map of Malawi including key constraints and drivers of project feasibility and financial viability. This mapping will enable the search to focus on areas of the country which, subject to assessment of local-scale constraints and consultation with relevant stakeholders, are likely to be most appropriate for wind farm development.

The key constraints and drivers included in the nationwide constraints map are discussed below.

2.1.1 AIRPORTS

Wind farms have the potential to represent a physical obstacle to aircraft taking off and landing at an airport, and also to interfere with radar systems. Consequently, wind farms should ideally be located a sufficient distance from airports to minimise such impacts.

UK guidance indicates that WTGs located beyond a 15 km radius of an airport are unlikely to represent a physical obstacle to aircraft. Previous guidance from the UK Civil Aviation Authority stated that only those wind farm proposals lying within a 30 km radius of a safeguarded airport would be referred to the airport due to potential radar interference. However, it is now the case that the actual safeguarding distances for some airports may be further than 30 km.

Drawing on UK guidance, a 15 km exclusion zone was applied to smaller/regional airports and a 30 km exclusion zone was applied to larger/international airports. Although it is understood that the larger airports identified in this study do not currently have operational radar systems, a 30 km exclusion zone was applied so as not to hinder the possible future installation/operation of radar systems at these airports.

The locations of civil and military airports/airfields were identified based on publically available information and then verified by the Chief Aerodromes Officer of Malawi’s Department of Civil Aviation.

The location of airports and the applied buffers are shown in Figure 1.

2.1.2 ENVIRONMENTAL DESIGNATIONS

To reduce the potential for wind farm development to result in adverse impacts on key environmental assets, development should be focussed outside national and international designations, such as:

• Ramsar - An international designation which aims to ensure the conservation and wise use of wetlands and their resources.

• World Heritage Sites - Sites of outstanding cultural or natural importance to the common heritage of humanity.



• National Parks, Wildlife Reserves and Game Management Areas - Areas typically protected and/or managed for their nationally important landscapes, habitats, wildlife and/or cultural heritage.

• Forest Reserves – Nationally important natural forestry designated to conserve the environment and biodiversity and also to provide refuge for wildlife.

Data regarding the environmental designation in Malawi was sourced from the World Database on Protected Areas (www.wdpa.org), which is considered to be reasonably accurate and comprehensive. However, there may be existing or proposed national or regional designations that are not included in these data. The identified designations are illustrated in Figure 2.

Should any further designations be identified or proposed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant body, these should be included and the constraints map updated accordingly.

It is recommended that the Government of Malawi and other relevant bodies review the designations identified to ensure they are an accurate representation of international, national and regional designations within Malawi.

2.1.3 POPULATION DENSITY

To reduce the potential for adverse impacts on the human population and to identify areas where there may be sufficient undeveloped land available to accommodate WTG development, it is recommended that the search for potential wind farm sites focuses on areas with relatively low population density.

Based on a map produced by the National Statistics Office of Malawi, using population data from 1998 (www.nso.malawi.net), areas of relatively high population density were identified and included in the constraints map. Areas of high population density are shown in Figure 3.

It should be noted that the population of Malawi has increased by approximately 3% per annum since 1998. However, detailed information on the variation in population density between 1998 and 2012 has not been identified by SgurrEnergy. As potential impacts on the human population will be considered in more detail during future site specific feasibility assessments, the use of the 1998 data is considered to be reasonable for the purposes of this high-level constraints mapping exercise.

Should any information be available from the Government of Malawi or other relevant body on the variation in population density between 1998 and 2012, these should be included and the constraints map updated accordingly.

2.1.4 STEEP SLOPES

WTG manufacturers typically specify limits on the slope of land for the construction of a wind farm. For example, Vestas recommend a limit of 10 degrees as above this slope it becomes difficult to establish level crane pads and rotor lay down areas.

The disturbance of wind flow caused by steep complex topography can increase turbulence and wind shear effects which increases stress-loading on the WTG blades. This can result in increased maintenance and repair expenditure and reduced WTG operational life. This is discussed in more detail in Section 5.2.

The search for potentially suitable sites for WTG development should ideally avoid areas with steep and/or complex topography. Areas with slopes above 10° are included in the constraints mapping and are shown in Figure 4.

It should be noted that there may be small areas within these large undulating areas of Malawi that meet the above criteria with respect to gradient within a potential wind farm



site. However, for the purposes of nationwide constraint mapping it is reasonable to exclude these large areas from the site selection process.

2.1.5 PROXIMITY TO ROADS

The main roads in Malawi are generally of high quality and likely to be suitable for the delivery of WTG components. However, the quality of roads deteriorates within a relatively short distance from the main road network. The transportation of WTG components from the main road network to a proposed wind farm site may require considerable upgrading to existing minor roads and/or the construction of new roads. Such work could significantly increase the capital cost of a wind farm project and reduce the project’s financial viability. Consequently, it is recommended that the search for potentially suitable wind farm sites is focussed on areas relatively close to the main road network.

As an illustration, the constraints mapping highlights areas within 5 km of the main roads. However, the closer a site is to the main road network, the easier and cheaper it is likely to be for the transportation of WTG components.

GIS data illustrating the location and classification of roads was kindly provided by Peter Nkwanda from the Malawi Polytechnic. The original source of this data is unknown but is considered to be reasonable. The main road network is shown in Figure 5.

Should any recent infrastructure be identified or proposed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant body, these should be included and the constraints map updated accordingly.

It is recommended that the Government of Malawi and other relevant bodies review the infrastructure identified to ensure they are an accurate representation of current and proposed infrastructure within Malawi.

Further consideration to delivery of WTGs to Malawi is presented in Section 7.

2.1.6 PROXIMITY TO GRID INFRASTRUCTURE

The location of Malawi’s electricity grid infrastructure is shown in Figure 6, based on information kindly provided by Evilasio Mwale of ESCOM.

A wind farm with an installed capacity of around 10 MW would typically require to be connected to the electricity network at 33 kV or higher. The capability of the existing 33 kV distribution system is understood to be of light construction and therefore it would not be suitable to connect 10 MW of generation for any significant distance. It has been assumed that the existing substations have sufficient transformer capability to accept new wind farm generation projects in the order of 10 MW.

With regard to a wind farm of this scale, and subject to other development costs, connection distances of up to 20 km would typically be expected to be commercially viable when connecting at 66 kV. Due to the increased costs associated with connecting at 132 kV, a wind farm of this scale would typically require to be located within a much closer distance to the existing network.

It is recommended that the search for potentially suitable wind farm sites is focussed on areas within 20 km of existing 66 kV overhead lines and substations and within 2 km of existing 132 kV overhead lines.

It is noted that there are ongoing improvements to the national grid in Malawi, in addition the Rural Electrification Program which is extending the national grid in some areas (See Section 8 for further details). Should any recent infrastructure be identified or proposed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant body, these should be included and the constraints map updated accordingly.



It is recommended that the Government of Malawi and other relevant bodies review the infrastructure identified to ensure they are an accurate representation of current and proposed infrastructure within Malawi.

2.2 SITE-SPECIFIC CONSIDERATIONS

Site-specific constraints mapping and more detailed assessment of potential impacts will be required to confirm the suitability of individual sites. However, to aid in the identification of potentially suitable wind farm sites within the most promising areas identified by the nationwide constraints mapping exercise, the following information should be considered:

2.2.1 LAND AREA

When identifying potential wind farm sites, consideration should be given to the area required to accommodate the size of development targeted as part of this programme. A wind farm comprising five or six commercial-scale WTGs would typically require an unconstrained area of approximately 1 km by 1 km.

2.2.2 LOCAL CULTURAL HERITAGE

WTGs should be located to avoid any significant adverse impacts on cultural heritage features. To prevent loss or damage to cultural heritage assets (direct impacts), the search for potential wind farm sites should avoid areas immediately adjacent to features such as local cemeteries or known archaeological remains. The potential visual impact of WTGs should also be considered (indirect impacts) as this can have an impact on the setting of cultural heritage features.

Provided no planned infrastructure is located within a toppling distance (equivalent to the proposed WTG tip height, potentially up to 130 m) of any identified cultural heritage features and considerate construction methods are adopted, no loss or damage of the features would be anticipated.

There is however, no recognised distance that WTGs should be located from cultural heritage features to prevent significant in-direct impacts on setting. Impacts on setting will be highly subjective and will vary depending on the characteristics of each specific feature and the nature of the views of the proposed wind farm. It should be noted that potentially significant visual impacts of a wind farm can extend up to 15 km from the development (and even further in some cases).

Once a potential wind farm site is selected, a detailed assessment of potential impacts on setting of cultural heritage features will need to be undertaken, including the preparation of photomontages to illustrate the potential views from any identified cultural heritage features and views from other key viewpoints with views of both the feature and the proposed wind farm.

It is difficult to advise at this stage how to treat cultural heritage features when selecting potential sites. It is likely that the most appropriate approach at this early stage is to ensure that there are no cultural heritage features within the potential developable area and no particularly important/sensitive cultural heritage features known to exist within 15 km of the potential site.

2.2.3 TELECOMMUNICATIONS

WTGs can interfere with point-to-point telecommunication links, television and radio signals. Consequently, potential wind farm sites should ideally avoid areas immediately adjacent to telecommunications masts, such as that shown in Figure 8.

The presence of telecommunication masts at or near to a site does not necessarily rule out WTG development as it may be possible to locate WTGs such that they do not



conflict with the transmission of links/signals originating from the masts. Nor does the absence of telecommunication infrastructure confirm that there would be no potential issues. Telecommunication signals are not visible and can transmit information across large distances. Consequently, even where no masts are identified in the immediate vicinity, there may be a number of telecommunication links passing through the area.

Consultation will be required with relevant stakeholders (mobile phone companies, television providers etc) to confirm the suitability of a potential wind farm site with regard to telecommunications. Should potential telecommunication issues be identified at a site following consultation, measures may be available to mitigate the anticipated impacts. However, mitigation measures can be expensive and can have a detrimental impact on a project’s financial viability.

At the site identification stage, it is advised that sites are selected ensuring that there are no telecommunication masts within the potentially developable area and that a buffer of at least 500 m is maintained between any identified mast and the edge of the potential developable area.

2.2.4 PROXIMITY OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES

Residential buildings are considered to be sensitive to potential noise and shadow flicker impacts whereas uninhabited/non-residential buildings are typically not considered to be.

2.2.4.1 Noise

Noise limitations relating to a wind farm are typically based on an allowable increase above the existing background noise level in the area. In the absence of national guidance on the matter, international guidance can be drawn upon.

International Finance Corporation (IFC) General Environmental, Health and Safety Guidance: Environmental (Noise Management) recommends that noise levels experienced at nearby residential properties should not exceed 55 dB(LAeq) during the day (0700 to 2200) and 45 dB(LAeq) at night (2200 to 0700), or 3 dB above the background noise levels, whichever limit is highest.

To minimise potential noise impacts on nearby houses, a wind farm comprising five or six commercial-scale WTGs may require to be located a minimum of 650m to 750m from any permanent residential properties. However, the actual distance required to comply with the IFC guidance or appropriate national guidance will depend heavily on the number and model of WTGs proposed and the background noise levels in the area.

During the site identification stage, it is advised that a buffer of approximately 1 km is maintained between any identified residential property and the edge of the potential developable area, to reduce potential for noise and shadow flicker impacts (as discussed in the following section).

2.2.4.2 Shadow Flicker

Shadow flicker occurs when the sunlight and the rotating WTG blades interact in such a way that a moving shadow is cast onto the ground or stationary objects. Within the range of the shadow at any specified location, a flickering effect can be evident when the shadow passes.

Current industry standards and guidance is that shadow flicker impact is likely to be negligible beyond a distance of 10 rotor diameters. Based on the rotor diameter of commercial-scale WTGs currently available and installed onshore, this potential impact zone could extend up to 1 km from potential WTG locations. Impact on properties within this area will depend on location of the property with respect to the sun and the WTGs.



During the site identification stage, it is advised that a buffer of approximately 1 km is maintained between any identified residential property and the edge of the potential developable area, to reduce potential for shadow flicker and noise impacts (as discussed in the preceding section).

2.2.5 INFRASTRUCTURE

It is advisable to ensure that WTGs are at least toppling distance (equivalent to the proposed WTG tip height, potentially up to 130 m based on the maximum tip heights of commercial-scale WTGs currently available and commonly installed onshore) from infrastructure such as roads, railways and high voltage power lines. The separation requirements should be confirmed with the relevant authorities during the site-specific feasibility assessment process.

At the site identification stage, it is advised that sites are selected to ensure that there is a buffer of at least 130 m between identified infrastructure and the edge of the potential developable area.

2.2.6 HYDROLOGY

WTGs should not be installed in close proximity to sensitive hydrological features such as lakes, water courses and wells. A separation distance of 50 m is typically sufficient to minimise potential impacts on such features.

3 NATIONAL GUIDANCE, POLICIES AND REGULATIONS

Any national guidance, policies or regulations relevant to infrastructure development, renewable energy project development or more general development projects should be adhered to and considered when selecting potentially suitable sites. At this stage SgurrEnergy has not undertaken a review of existing national guidance, policies or regulations as it is understood that the existing framework may be limited and subject to ongoing review.

It is important that the guidance given in this report is considered alongside any applicable development policy in Malawi. It is recommended that the Government of Malawi and other relevant bodies review the current national and regional development policy to identify aspects directly and indirectly relevant to potential development of commercial scale wind farms. A summary of the applicable policies should be compiled to inform potential wind farm site identification and feasibility studies as part of the M-REAP project and in the future.

4 INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS AND GUIDANCE

4.1 OVERVIEW

This section is provided for information only at this stage to enable understanding of the international standards and guidance that should be considered from the early stages of a project. Adhering to the advice given in Sections 2.1 and 2.2 of this report will set the proposed wind farm developments on the road to compliance with the standards and guidance discussed herein.

Potential lenders for the Project will need to be satisfied that applicable national and international environmental standards are being met. Compliance with international environmental standards can be expected to mean meeting environmental requirements that go beyond that of the national legislation applicable at time of consent award.



4.2 EQUATOR PRINCIPLES

The Equator Principles (EP) were first adopted in June 2003 by a number of key commercial lenders as a voluntary set of guidelines developed to ensure that projects under consideration for financing are developed in a manner that is socially responsible and reflect sound environmental management practices. The EPs were revised in July 2006, in close consultation with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of the World Bank Group, and now consist of ten principles relating to the environmental and social assessment and management of development projects under consideration for finance. In addition, they include internal reporting and monitoring requirements for EP Financial Institutions (EPFI).

The EPs apply to all new project financings with total capital costs of US$10 million or more across all industry sectors globally. The EPs represent a framework for project financing, which is underpinned by the revised IFC Environmental and Social Review Procedures (ESRPs) (July 2007), the revised IFC Social and Environmental Sustainability and Performance Standards (PS), new Sustainability Policy, and Disclosure Policy.

The Performance Standards are supplemented by the General Environmental, Health & Safety Guidelines (EHS Guidelines) and other best practice material including the IFC Sector Specific EHS Guidelines. The applicable Sector Specific EHS Guidelines to wind farm projects are the EHS Guidelines for Wind Energy, April 2007.

The extent to which the EPs apply depends on some considerations. Under the requirements of EP3, countries which are not classed as High-Income Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries, like Malawi, are required to follow the applicable standards and guidelines as set out in the IFC PSs and EHS Guidelines. When a project is proposed for financing, the EPFI will categorise the project, based on the magnitude of its potential impacts and risks in accordance with IFC environmental and social screening criteria. This categorisation will determine the level of environmental assessment and management which should be implemented.

Ultimately, the objective of the EPs, fully set out and supported by the IFC environmental and social assessment criteria and requirements, is to “manage social and environmental risks and impacts and enhance development opportunities in private sector financing” throughout the life of the investment.

4.3 INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION

IFC’s Sustainability Framework, updated in 2012, articulates the Corporation’s strategic commitment to sustainable development, and is an integral part of IFC’s approach to risk management. The Sustainability Framework comprises IFC’s Policy and Performance Standards (PSs) on Environmental and Social Sustainability, and IFC’s Access to Information Policy. The Policy on Environmental and Social Sustainability describes IFC’s commitments, roles, and responsibilities related to environmental and social sustainability. IFC’s Access to Information Policy reflects IFC’s commitment to transparency and good governance on its operations, and outlines the Corporation’s institutional disclosure obligations regarding its investment and advisory services. The Performance Standards are directed towards Borrowers, providing guidance on how to identify risks and impacts, and are designed to help avoid, mitigate, and manage risks and impacts as a way of doing business in a sustainable way, including stakeholder engagement and disclosure obligations of the client in relation to project-level activities. In the case of its direct investments (including project and corporate finance provided through financial intermediaries), IFC requires Borrowers to apply the PSs to manage environmental and social risks and impacts so that development opportunities are enhanced. The PSs are applied by other EPFIs for investments in all non high-income OECD countries.



Together, the eight PSs establish standards that the Borrower is to meet throughout the life of an investment:

• PS 1: Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts

• PS 2: Labor and Working Conditions

• PS 3: Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention

• PS 4: Community Health, Safety, and Security

• PS 5: Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement

• PS 6: Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Resources

• PS 7: Indigenous Peoples

• PS 8: Cultural Heritage

PS 1 establishes the importance of:

• integrated assessment to identify the social and environmental impacts, risks, and opportunities of projects;

• effective community engagement through disclosure of project-related information and consultation with local communities on matters that directly affect them; and

• the Borrower’s management of social and environmental performance throughout the life of the project.

PS2 through to PS8 establish requirements to avoid, reduce, mitigate or compensate for impacts on people and the environment, and to improve conditions where appropriate. While all relevant social and environmental risks and potential impacts should be considered as part of the assessment, PS2 through to PS8 describe potential social and environmental impacts that require particular attention in emerging markets. Where social or environmental impacts are anticipated, the Borrower is required to manage them through its Environmental and Social Management System (ESMS) consistent with PS1.

4.4 GOOD PRACTICE WIND

A useful source of additional information and guidance on wind farm development is the Good Practice Wind website (www.project-gpwind.eu). According to the website, the Good Practice Wind project was “set up to address barriers to the deployment of onshore and offshore wind energy generation, by recording and sharing good practice in reconciling renewable energy objectives with wider environmental objectives and actively involving communities in planning and implementation.”

“The project is co-funded by Intelligent Energy Europe Programme and coordinated by the Scotish Government, bringing together industry, regional and local authorities, environmental agencies, NGO's and academia from 8 European countries (Belgium, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Norway, Scotland and Greece).”

“By bringing together developers, regional and local government, environmental agencies and NGOs from different countries to share experiences, it has been possible to develop a set of Good Practice Guidance and a Toolkit, which can be used to aid more effective and efficient deployment of renewable energy.”

Although the primary aim of this website is believed to be the support of wind farm development within the EU, with the aim of assisting member nations to meet their



carbon reduction targets. It is considered that this is a useful source of information to guide wind farm development internationally.

The Good Practice Guide includes around 70 recommendations supported by over 130 examples of good practices, which are collected in three categories:

• Minimising environmental impact

• Optimising social acceptance

• Optimising spatial planning.

5 POTENTIAL WIND RESOURCE IN MALAWI

A key consideration when identifying areas suitable for commercial scale WTGs is the long-term wind resource in the area. The term “wind resource” refers to the long-term average energy that can be extracted from the wind at a site and how this varies spatially and temporally. The key climatological parameters of wind resource, with respect to energy conversion by a WTG, are wind speed and wind direction. These parameters are considered over various temporal resolutions, from ten minute averages to twenty year long-term averages.

• Long-term wind speed and direction, including their distribution.

• Daily, monthly and annual variation in the wind speed and direction distribution.

The wind resource within a potential wind farm site is primarily governed by two factors. The first is the macroscale climatological patterns that drive wind within that geographical region. These macroscale climatological patterns generally determine the long-term wind speed and direction distributions within a region and the temporal variation of these distributions. The second is the microscale effects of the terrain and surface cover within and surrounding a site. These may have a significant effect on the wind resource at specific WTG locations within a site. These factors are discussed in greater detail in Section 5.2.

Of the parameters above, the most important with respect to the commercial viability of a wind farm is the long-term wind speed distribution, specifically the mean of this distribution.

In order to determine the long-term wind resource at a site with a good degree of certainty it is required to perform an on-site measurement campaign. However, prior to the measurement campaign commencing, it is possible to use large scale weather, or mesoscale, models to determine the relative variation in some of the parameters above, specifically the long-term mean wind speed, across a large area. This enables the sites which are estimated to have the highest long-term mean wind speeds to be identified.

In addition to this a review of historical measured data from meteorological stations can be used to evaluate the variation in the wind speed and direction distributions across a large area. This historical measured data is also integral to the validation of any mesoscale model.

SgurrEnergy has used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the variation in wind speed across Malawi. This modelling has been accompanied by a review of historical measured data across Malawi to provide an overview of spatial and temporal variation in wind speed and direction, as part of a validation of the mesoscale model.

The resultant mesoscale model can be used in conjunction with the nationwide constraints mapping to identify areas that are estimated to have the best wind resource on land that is suitable for wind farm development.



5.1 NATIONWIDE VARIATION IN WIND RESOURCE

5.1.1 MEASURED DATA

5.1.1.1 Previous work

There have been a number of studies outlining the potential wind resource in Malawi. The majority of these have relied on measured data source from Malawi’s network of meteorological stations. These include work by Kamdonyo (1988)1, Tembo et al (2001)1 and Mwakikunga (2002)1.

In addition to this, reference is made by UNDP2 (unknown) to…

“a DANIDA-sponsored project on Assessment of Alternative Energy Sources in Malawi in which COWI Consult together with a team of local experts have installed mast with automatic data loggers to measure wind and solar potential at various sites. This study will contribute greatly towards establishing wind and insolation databases which are necessary for sizing and specifying or designing the energy converting devices”.

However, no further references to such a measurement campaign have been identified.

It is therefore considered that the majority of quantative information relating to the wind resource in Malawi is based on historical data measured using the network of meteorological stations in the country. Whilst this historical data is useful, there are a number of aspects of this data that mean it is unlikely to be representative of the long-term wind speed and direction distributions in Malawi. These key issues include:

• Data is recorded at a low height (usually 2 m AGL).

• Data has been recorded inconsistently and large periods of data are missing.

• Data has been recorded manually at the majority of stations during daytime only (typically at at 0500, 0600, 0800, 0900, 1100, 1400 and 1700 local time) prior to the installation of automatic weather stations (AWS).

The latter point is of particular significance as there is significant diurnal variation in wind speed in Malawi. As a result limited quantative information relating to the wind speed and direction distributions across Malawi is currently available and the majority of the data that are available are likely to be significantly biased.

5.1.1.2 Measured data for verification

In order to determine how representative the results of the mesoscale model are, some form of verification is required. This commonly takes the form of comparison with longer term (more than one year) measured data at a range of locations and heights.

Malawi has had a network of meteorological (met) stations that commenced recording data in the 1940’s. Meteorological data records extend back as far as the 1890’s; but this earlier data had an uneven geographical spread and the data was not recorded in a consistent fashion.

In the past five years some of Malawi’s meteorological stations have been upgraded to AWS. A standard Casella Measurements AWS system has been used. These are generally installed alongside the existing metrological instrumentation.

The majority of Malawi’s 22 full meteorological stations record wind speed and direction at 2 m above ground level (AGL). The wind speed and direction distributions at this height are heavily influenced by local sheltering and surface roughness effects. As

1 Original paper not available to SgurrEnergy

2 “Technology Strategy for Sustainable Livelihood”, United Nations Development Program



such, they are of limited use when performing verification of a mesoscale model. However, there are currently three full meteorological stations which record wind speed and direction at 10 m AGL, which are located at Mzuzu, Lilongwe and Chileka. Data from these stations were sourced from the Malawian Met Office for use in the development and verification of the mesoscale model.

Despite the automatic specification of the AWS, the data coverage at the three 10 m AWS has been extremely poor. It is understood this is a result of very limited resource at the Malawi Met Office. All available data have been supplied for each station by the Malawian Met Office. The following periods are available for use in the mesoscale model verification.

Lilongwe – 01/08/2010 – 31/03/2012 (missing data Apr/May/Aug/Sept 2011)

Mzuzu – 01/08/2010 - 31/03/2012 (missing data May/Jun/Jul/Aug/Sept 2011)

Chileka – 01/03/2011 – 31/05/2011

It can be seen from the summary above that very limited data are available from the Chileka met station (a total of three months). As such, data from Lilongwe and Mzuzu (approximately 15 months from each) were used as the primary source of verification of the mesoscale model.

5.1.2 MESOSCALE MODELLING

A detailed description of how the wind resource map of Malawi was generated, including verification and recommendations for further work is given in Appendix A. The resulting wind resource map is shown graphically in Figure 9.

The purpose of the wind resource map is to determine the variation in long-term mean wind speed across Malawi. Due to the low resolution of the model and the very limited verification that could be performed there is a significant uncertainty associated with the magnitude of the wind speeds predicted.

It is clear from Figure 9 that the areas estimated to have the highest long-term mean wind speeds at 10 m height are in the north-west area of Malawi. Specifically:

• West and north-west of Mzimba • West and north-west of Chilumba • Area around Kapirinkode • Area around Chitipa

To a lesser extent areas of central and southern Malawi show elevated wind resource. Specifically:

• Central highlands to the north and south of Lilongwe • Southern highlands to the north and south of Blantyre

As a result it is proposed that these areas are prioritised when reviewing the areas suitable for wind farm development.

Figure 9 shows the wind resource within the areas that have been identified as most suitable for wind farm development.

It should be noted that limited validation of the wind resource map is possible at present (see Appendix A for details). As further information and data become available the wind resource map will be refined.



5.2 SITE SPECIFIC WIND RESOURCE CONSIDERATIONS

Although the wind speed and direction distributions at a site are largely dictated by macroscale climatology, there are site specific features which can significantly impact wind quantity and quality.

The term “wind quantity” refers here to the magnitude of the wind speed only. The term “wind quality” is used to describe specific features of the wind flow across a site. These include wind shear, turbulence intensity and inflow angle at a site. Within a site there may be significant variation in the aforementioned parameters. These parameters are described briefly below.

• Wind shear – the variation in wind speed with height above ground level at a specific location.

• Turbulence intensity – the variation in horizontal wind speed about the mean wind speed over a fixed period of time (commonly ten minutes) at a specific height and location.

• Inflow angle – the angle between the wind vector and the horizontal in a given direction, at a specific height and location.

WTGs are designed to operate within defined ranges of wind shear, turbulence intensity and inflow angle. Out with these ranges WTG performance may significantly deteriorate and a WTG may experience elevated fatigue loading. Even within these ranges, WTG performance may differ from calculated or measured performance characteristics supplied by a WTG manufacturer. As such, it is prudent to consider how features of a potential wind farm site may affect the magnitude of the wind speed across the site and the wind quality at the site.

The following characteristics of a site, and surrounding area, may affect the wind quantity and/or quality at a site and should be considered when identifying potential wind farm sites. The “surrounding area” is roughly defined as the area within two kilometres of the proposed site boundary.

It should be noted that the points below are a gross simplification of the factors influencing the wind resource at a site but are provided as a useful guide to desk or field based site selection.

5.2.1 WIND QUANTITY

• Relative elevation – areas of relatively high elevation are likely to experience higher wind speeds. Where possible, the site or the WTG locations should be located at as high an elevation as possible.

• Ground cover – areas of open, clear terrain are likely to experience relatively high wind speeds. Forestry or dense urban areas can significantly reduce the magnitude of the wind speed at a given height and location, when compared to open terrain. As such WTG placement within or in close proximity to these areas is not recommended. Low bushes, scrubland and scattered dwellings are unlikely to have a significant effect on the magnitude of the wind speed.

• Exposure in prevailing wind directions – areas that are well exposed in the prevailing wind directions are likely to experience relatively high wind speeds. Exposure in this case refers both to the relative elevation of the site compared to the surrounding terrain and the ground cover, within the site and surrounding the site, in these directions. High relative elevation and open, clear terrain in the prevailing wind directions are likely to result in relatively high wind speeds at a site.



5.2.2 WIND QUALITY

• Ground cover – ground cover, or surface roughness, can significantly affect the wind shear and turbulence intensity at a site. High surface roughness resulting from dense forestry or urban areas is likely to result in high levels of wind shear and turbulence intensity and as such should be avoided. Significant variations in surface roughness within and surrounding a site can result in elevated levels of wind shear and turbulence intensity, although the magnitude of this increase is site specific. In general, open areas with a uniform low surface roughness are preferred. These may include farmland and large plains.

• Gradient of terrain – in flat or gently undulating terrain the wind flow follows the gradient of the terrain. In terrain with significant gradients the wind flow may become detached from the surface of the terrain causing areas of very high local turbulence intensity, in addition to large inflow angles. It is recommended that gradients in excess of 10 degrees from the horizontal are not present within the wind farm area. In the surrounding area gradients up to 20 degrees from the horizontal may be acceptable.

5.2.3 SUMMARY OF GUIDANCE FOR SITE SPECIFIC WIND RESOURCE CONSIDERATIONS

In the long-term, the points raised in Sections 5.2.1 and 5.2.2 should not be considered “hard” constraints to WTG placement, as it may be possible to effectively operate WTGs within areas that do not comply with this guidance. However, in the short term in is likely to be more cost effective to treat these as hard constraints – specifically the presence of forestry and/or steep slopes within or surrounding a site.

It is likely that the development, construction and operational costs associated with sites that comply with the recommendations above will be significantly reduced in comparison to those that don’t.

5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER WORK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND RESOURCE IN

MALAWI, OUT WITH THE CURRENT SCOPE OF M-REAP

It is understood that the Malawian Met Office currently has limited resources at its disposal and as a result is not able to fully utilise the AWS network that exists in Malawi. Consistent, accurate collection of meteorological data, specifically wind speed and direction, over an extended period preceding and concurrent with wind farm development will lower the uncertainty associated with the long-term energy yield predictions of any commercial scale wind farms developed in Malawi. Accurate, consistent, long-term reference data from a well maintained AWS would allow short term on-site data to be accurately placed in the context of the long-term wind speed variations. Should Malawi’s network of AWS be supported with resource to provide this, it is likely to have a tangible affect through a reduction in the level of risk, and an associated reduction in the cost of development, for any future wind farm developments in Malawi. The data itself is also likely to have an inherent commercial value. It is recommended that the current AWS network is supported with sufficient resources to begin recording consistent and accurate wind speed and direction data, amongst other meteorological parameters.

Should the development of commercial level wind energy across Malawi be desired on a significant scale it is recommended that a network of dedicated tall (50 m) meteorological masts are deployed at strategic locations to record consistent and accurate wind speed and direction data. This data may be used to refine future mesoscale modelling or used as reference data in site specific energy yield calculations. Any network of meteorological masts should be strategically located at fixed locations, well maintained and secure over their deployment periods. It is recommended these masts remain in-situ for a minimum of five years.



6 WTG CONSIDERATIONS

The aim of WEPP is to investigate the potential for developing large commercial-scale WTGs in Malawi. A WTG of this scale typically has a rotor diameter of between 80 m and 100 m and a hub height of 80 m or more, with a capacity of 2 MW to 3 MW. Through this and following stages of the project, SgurrEnergy will aim to develop a detailed understanding of the WTG market on the African continent, and particularly in South Africa and other relevant countries in the region surrounding Malawi. A number of established WTG manufacturers are understood to be active in African markets, including Vestas, Siemens, Suzlon and Acciona. However, it is not known whether any of these companies actually manufacture WTG components in Africa or import the WTGs from manufacturing facilities in Europe or Asia.

The main technical and commercial considerations in WTG choice are:

• Suitability for the site wind regime – assessment of this requires measured wind data.

• Access to site - maximum size of WTG can be governed by capacity of site access routes (weight, height and width).

• Economics (including potential Capital and Operating costs) - larger WTGs tend to cost less per MWh produced.

• Availability of WTGs - at times of high global demand, lead times can be long and WTGs difficult to procure for smaller sites.

• Manufacturer and WTG model track record – preference given to WTGs with a proven track record of operation in similar environments.

• Provision of after sales operations and maintenance (O&M) package for WTG – these are commonly offered by WTG manufacturers but may be limited in scope or not competitively priced for small or remote wind farms. This may be a significant issue in Malawi in the short and medium term.

These considerations are usually investigated at a later stage in the development process and will be considered further by SgurrEnergy during WEPP3.

7 WTG DELIVERY AND TRANSPORTATION CONSIDERATIONS

The logistics of transporting WTG components to Malawi from the point of manufacture or point of delivery is likely to be an important consideration.

A potential option may be for the WTGs to be delivered by sea from the point of manufacture (which could be South Africa or further afield) to the Port of Beira, at the mouth of the Pungoe River in Sofala Province of Mozambique. This port is located approximately 300 km south of the Malawian border and it is understood to be important for importing and exporting goods in and out of inland central African countries, including Malawi. Further work will be required to confirm the suitability of the port for delivery and handling of large WTG components.

From Port of Beira, the WTG components would then need to be transported by road to the Malawian border. Given the importance of Port of Beira for Malawian trade, it is anticipated that the road infrastructure between the border and the port will be of high quality and should not present any significant technical difficulties. However, a detailed transportation assessment should be undertaken to confirm this.

The Malawian railway system is also understood to be linked to Port of Beira. Transportation of WTG components by rail may offer a possible alternative to road transportation.



Potential WTG delivery and transportation issues will be considered further in WEPP3.

8 ELECTRICITY GRID CONSIDERATIONS

Information on the electricity grid infrastructure was provided in The Government of The United States of America Millennium Challenge Corporation’s Concept Paper for the Energy Sector3.

8.1 THE EXISTING ESCOM SYSTEM

8.1.1 EXISTING GENERATION:

Nearly 95% of Malawi’s electricity supply is provided by hydropower from a cascaded group of interconnected hydroelectric power plants located on the middle part of Shire River and a mini hydro on the Wovwe River. The total present installed capacity for the ESCOM system, inclusive of standby thermal plants, is about 299.65 MW.

8.1.2 EXISTING TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION:

ESCOM has a transmission network comprising of 1250 km of overhead lines on wood poles and 815 km of lines on steel towers. These lines transmit bulk power at 66 kV and 132 kV, and feed power to over 70 transformers which are located at 39 substations in the country. The substations are located at major load centres where these voltages are then stepped down to 33 kV and 11 kV for distribution to customers.

8.2 FUTURE GRID IMPROVEMENT, EXTENSION AND 220KV INTERCONNECTION:

It is noted that there are ongoing improvements to the national grid in Malawi, in addition the Rural Electrification Program which is extending the national grid in some areas (See Section 8 for further details). In addition to this, it is possible that a 220 kV transmission line will link Malawi to Caborra Bassa in Mozambique, thereby enabling the two countries’ power utilities to conduct power trading.

8.3 OVERALL TECHNICAL CONSTRAINTS:

The existing national grid system is relatively weak and may potentially limit the maximum capacity of any single wind generation project. However, restriction could be mitigated if the 220 kV interconnector was constructed and the Malawi system was interconnected with the Mozambique system.

Should any infrastructure improvements be proposed by the Government of Malawi or other relevant body, these will be considered as part of detailed feasibility studies in WEPP3.

It is recommended that the Government of Malawi and other relevant bodies review the current and proposed grid infrastructure and clarify the specification and schedule of proposed improvements in order for them to be considered as part of the M-REAP project.

9 COMMERCIAL CONSIDERATIONS

9.1 MARKET OVERVIEW

Countries such as South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia are among those African nations understood to generate electricity from commercial-scale wind farms. It is also

3 www.mca-m.gov.mw/documents/final_submission/MCA_Energy_Concept_Paper_29042009.pdf



understood that Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria are among those nations currently in the process of developing commercial-scale wind farms. It is widely anticipated that the wind energy market will grow in these countries and that new markets will emerge in a number of other African countries.

9.2 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

As part of the M-REAP project various models for development and ownership of small, medium and large scale power production are being considered for Malawi. Detailed investigation, discussion and analyse of these models is out with the scope of the WEPP program. However, below is a broad overview of potential ownership and operation model. They are based on the assumption that in the short and medium term ESCOM is the only customer for an independent power producer (IPP) in Malawi.

Two key models for the ownership and operation of a wind farm in Malawi are:

• The project is owned and operated by Escom, the grid operator.

• The project is owned and operated by a third party and the generated electricity is sold to Escom at a price subject to a long-term contract or power purchase agreement (PPA).

In deciding which ownership model to adopt, a number of key issues should be considered. For example, whoever develops, owns and operates the wind farm will require to posses or be able to raise sufficient funds (through aid, equity investors or debt finance) to cover the capital costs (Capex) of the project. In the UK, a commercial-scale wind farm development typically costs in the region of £1.2M and £1.5M per MW installed. Based on our experience of wind farm development in other countries such as Pakistan and Mongolia, it is anticipated that certain elements such as the cost of labour and construction materials are likely to be lower in Malawi than in the UK, but that other elements such as the cost of WTGs, shipping and transportation costs and the requirement for infrastructure upgrades are likely to be higher (some of these costs would be expected to decrease if the wind industry in Malawi matures). Consequently, the overall Capex of the first wind farm developments in Malawi may not be significantly different to that anticipated for wind farms in the UK.

If equity investment or debt finance is required to cover the project Capex, the wind farm will need to generate sufficient revenues to provide a suitable return to investors and/or to meet debt repayments (a minimum debt service cover ratio (DSCR) of 1.2 is typically required). The level of revenue generated is dependent on the wind farm energy yield (which is in turn dependent on many factors including the available wind resource and the number and rated capacity of WTGs) and the price obtained for selling electricity to the national grid, under a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA)). Many countries also provide additional financial incentives to support the economic viability of renewable energy installations4, 5. These act as strong guarantees to lenders. Two key support mechanisms include:

• Feed-in Tariffs - A guaranteed price is paid for electricity generated from renewable sources at a defined market price and for a guaranteed period.

• Obligations/Certificates – Industrial energy users are obliged to source a proportion of their energy requirements from renewable sources. Certificates are awarded to generators of renewable energy and these certificates become

4 africa-toolkit.reeep.org/modules/Module9.pdf

5 www.ewea.org/050620_ewea_report.pdf



tradeable commodities to be purchased by energy users that do not generate their own renewable energy.

Currently, there are no such support mechanisms in Malawi. However, this may form part of the energy policy anticipated to emerge in the coming years.

The owner/operator of a wind farm must also pay operation and maintenance costs (Opex), which in the UK typically amount to around 5% of the total Capex annually. Based on Capex assumptions of between £1.2M and £1.5M per MW, annual Opex costs would be expected to be in the region of £60,000 to £75,000 per MW. Based on our experience of wind farm development in other countries, it is anticipated that annual Opex for early wind farm developments in Malawi may be higher than experienced in the UK due to logistical challenges involved in getting personnel and spare parts, potentially based or manufactured in other countries, to the site.

9.3 COMMERCIAL CONSIDERATION CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

A thorough assessment of the commercial considerations for future wind farm development in Malawi should be conducted. A wide range of development policy and support mechanisms have been implemented internationally to encourage the development of commercial scale wind energy, with varying degrees of success. It is vital that the lessons learned internationally are reviewed in detail as part of similar policy development in Malawi. It is important that should commercial scale wind energy be desired in Malawi in the short and medium term that such policy formulation begins without delay and incorporates all stakeholders to ensure such developments are socially, environmentally and economically sustainable. Such policy formulation is currently out with the scope of the M-REAP project but will be supported by the M-REAP project.



Figures

Figure 1 – Airports



Figure 2 – Environmental Designations



Figure 3 - Areas of High Population Density



Figure 4 - Steep Slopes

Note: horizontal lines are evident and are a result of the format of the freely available SRTM6 topography data and are not an accurate representation of the terrain in these areas of Malawi.

6 http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/srtm/



Figure 5 - Main Roads



Figure 6 - Grid Infrastructure



Figure 7 - Recommended Areas of Search

Within 10 km of main roads, 20 km of 66 kV overhead lines and substations and 2 km of 132 kV overhead lines



Figure 8 - Telecommunication Mast



Figure 9 - Estimated Wind Resource within Most Suitable Areas for Wind Farms

m/s



10 APPENDIX A – WRF MODEL OF MALAWI

10.1 INTRODUCTION TO LARGE SCALE WIND RESOURCE MODELLING OF MALAWI

SgurrEnergy has performed a large scale wind resource mapping exercise for Malawi. This has been performed to inform the selection of potential commercial scale wind farm sites in Malawi. SgurrEnergy has employed a mesoscale modelling methodology to provide an estimation of the wind resource across Malawi. The following sections detail the development, verification and a summary of the results of the model followed by an outline of further work.

Mesoscale modelling is commonly employed in the wind industry to provide estimations of the wind resource across a large area as part of the feasibility process. A number of open source and proprietary mesoscale models have been developed and tailored for use in the wind industry. The majority of mesoscale models operate on the same fundamental principles. These principles are summarised briefly below, with specific reference to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model employed by SgurrEnergy.

It should be noted that the results of mesoscale models have a significant uncertainty associated with them and should be treated as indicative only.

10.2 HOW THE WRF MESOSCALE MODEL WORKS

At the simplest level, mesoscale models can be viewed as applying known geographical, physical and atmospheric data inputs, conducting manipulation of this data using governing equations, thus allowing atmospheric properties to be predicted at a specified time and global location.

Reanalysis weather data is used as an input to the model. This data initially originates from many worldwide meteorological stations observations compiled together. This data is applied to a global weather simulation model resulting in a coarse resolution global atmospheric dataset. On average the global resolution of reanalysis data is stated as 80 km by 80 km, but as the majority of meteorological stations are located in Europe and North America this enables a finer resolution output in these regions. These data are available in either three or six hour increments. Geographic and physical data such as terrain elevation, surface roughness category, albedo, and soil category are some of the inputs into the model.

Mesoscale models use a 3D grid cube system which defines the resolution of the model. The user selects a horizontal domain area and defines the grid spacing within that domain. A further option available is to nest one domain within another allowing for improved grid resolutions at the region of interest. Figure 10 shows a nested domain configuration with the primary domain centred over south-east Africa and the final domain over Malawi. The vertical levels of the model can also be specified by selecting the corresponding pressure levels.



Figure 10: Nested WRF Domain Centred Over Malawi

The model works using the known initial atmospheric conditions and the knowledge of how these change with time. This allows the governing equations to obtain these values in a time step. All mesoscale models use the same set of governing equations which describe the fundamental motion and thermodynamic processes that occur in the atmosphere. These equations are derived from the conservation laws of momentum, mass, energy and moisture.

10.3 DEVELOPMENT OF THE WRF MESOSCALE MODEL

The WRF model was setup and initial testing was performed on SgurrEnergy’s dedicated in-house mesoscale model computational resource. A nested domain was used with the outer domain measuring approximately 1500 x 2000 km. The inner domain covered Malawi entirely, measuring approximately 420 x 900 km. The inner domain was run at a resolution of 5 x 5 km.

A number of test runs were performed covering two month historical periods, concurrent with the measured data at the Lilongwe and Mzuzu met stations. These test runs were used to refine the model and determine the sensitivity of the model to the input parameters. Once satisfactory agreement between the model and measured data was achieved an extended run was performed to encapsulate seasonal variation in the wind resource in Malawi.

The WRF model requires significant computational resource to operate when modelling large domains and/or significant periods of time. As such, a limited historical period has been run at this stage to reduce the computation resource required. However, SgurrEnergy performed an assessment of the long-term wind trends in Malawi to identify a shorter period of time, which was deemed representative of the long-term wind climate in Malawi.

As only limited verification of the model results could be conducted the results of the model should be considered as an initial estimate only. It is hoped that over the duration



of the M-REAP project further data will be made available to allow further refinement and validation of the model. It is hoped the results of this model can then be used to aid the development of wind energy in Malawi.

10.4 VERIFICATION OF THE WRF MESOSCALE MODEL

Initial results indicate that the mesoscale model is capable of capturing short term variation in wind speeds at both Lilongwe and Mzuzu locations. A comparison of hourly time series wind speeds extracted from the model and measured data show good general agreement. However, there are periods where the temporal synchronisation of the mesoscale model data and measured data deteriorates. This may be a result of data logging issues in the measured data, or an issue in the mesoscale model.

The magnitude of the wind speeds predicted by the mesoscale model is higher than the recorded measured data. This is expected as the measured data will be subject to local surface roughness and sheltering effects. These very local effects are not modelled in the mesoscale model.

The variation and magnitude of the wind direction from the mesoscale model does not agree closely with the met station measurements. However, the overall trend in the variation of wind direction is similar between the two. This may be a result of wind vane offsets in the measured data, or an issue in the mesoscale model.

Overall it is considered that the mesoscale model results are likely to provide a reasonable initial estimation of the wind resource across Malawi. However, significant further work is required to develop a robust, verified mesoscale model for Malawi.

10.5 RESULTS OF THE WRF MESOSCALE MODEL

Time series wind speed and direction data was extracted from the mesoscale model at four locations across Malawi – Chitipa in the very north-west, Mzuzu in the north, Lilongwe in central Malawi and Chileka in southern Malawi. This time series data was used to assess the temporal variation in wind speed and direction estimated by the WRF model. These results were compared with measured data where possible. Below is a summary of the results.

10.5.1 ANNUAL VARIATION IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION

All four locations show a similar trend in annual wind speed. The highest wind speeds are estimated to occur during the months of September, October and November. This is in line with the north-easterly trade winds which occur in Malawi during this period78. Out with this period there is generally limited variation in monthly wind speeds.

All four locations show prevailing wind directions from the north-east, east and south-east. Both Chitipa and Lilongwe show a prevailing wind direction from the east. Mzuzu shows a prevailing wind direction from the north-east. Chileka shows no single prevailing wind direction but shows prevailing winds from north-east, east and south-east. As expected, all four locations show prevailing wind from the north-east during the months of October to February8. Out with this period winds are from the east or south-east.

7 “Malawi’s Climate Technology Transfer and Needs Assessment”, Environmental Affairs Dept,

Government of Malawi, March 2003.

8 “RAMSAR Site Information Service 5.4 Malawi”, RAMSAR.



10.5.2 DAILY VARIATION IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION

Three locations show the highest wind speeds during the day (07:00 – 16:00 GMT) – Chitipa, Lilongwe and Mzuzu. At these locations the increase and decrease in wind speed in the morning and late afternoon respectively happens quickly. This is in line with measured data at these locations9. Chilika is estimated to experience the highest wind speeds during the evening (18:00-00:00 GMT). Measured data from this station suggests that significant wind speeds are also experienced during the afternoon period; however, this is not seen in the mesoscale model data.

It is noted that limited information is available regarding wind speed and direction during the night time period because historically data has only been collected during the day.

10.5.3 SPATIAL VARIATION IN WIND SPEED

No detailed verification of the spatial variation in wind speed across Malawi has been performed to date. This is a result of limited, consistent measured data being available. Historical wind speeds recorded at 2 m and 10 m in Malawi will be heavily influenced by very local surface roughness and sheltering effects. As such limited information regarding spatial variation in wind speed in Malawi is available.

10.6 CONCLUSIONS OF THE WRF MESOSCALE MODEL DATA

Overall it is considered that the mesoscale model data is in line with the limited measured and anecdotal information available for wind speed and direction variations within Malawi. However, there are a number of discrepancies between the mesoscale model and measured data.

It should be noted that there may be local climatological processes present in Malawi that the mesoscale model is not capable of accurately modelling – low level jets for example.

10.7 FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE WRF MESOSCALE MODEL

It is anticipated that a number of meteorological masts will be installed in Malawi as part of the M-REAP project. These masts will record high quality wind speed and direction data over an extended period at various heights above ground level. This data will be extremely valuable in refining the current mesoscale model and/or in conducting further model verification.

In addition to this, further investigation of the historical data available from the Malawi Met Office will be performed to ascertain whether more of this data can be utilised.

9 “Project Proposal On Wind Power Generation in Malawi”, Ministry of Natural Resources,

Energy and Environment, June 2011.

document no 11/6757/001/gla/o/r/003...2.2.6 hydrology 13 3 national guidance, policies and...

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