DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN MEXICO

A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

MEXICO’SMEXICO’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

MEXICO’SMEXICO’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•NATURAL HAZARDS•BLDG. INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: DISASTER RISK GOAL: DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONREDUCTION

•EDUCATIONAL SURGE•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE MEXICO’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE MEXICO’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE MEXICO’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE MEXICO’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK

HURRICANES

EARTHQUAKES

TSUNAMIS

FLOODS

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

LANDSLIDES

DEVELOP POLICIES FOR ACTIONS HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR THE COMMUNITY

DEVELOP POLICIES FOR ACTIONS HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR THE COMMUNITY

GOAL: REDUCE DISASTER GOAL: REDUCE DISASTER RISK NOWRISK NOW

GOAL: REDUCE DISASTER GOAL: REDUCE DISASTER RISK NOWRISK NOW

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• EVENTEVENT

POLICY ASSESSMENT

• COSTCOST

• BENEFITBENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONTOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

NSTURAL NSTURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS

NSTURAL NSTURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

HURRICANES

MEXICO IS AT RISK FROM HURRICANES FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN, AND GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE

HURRICANESHURRICANES

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS

STORM SURGE

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

SITING PROBLEMS

FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

HURRICANE DEAN

THE FIRST NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF 2007 CAUSED

DEVASTATION FROM CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO MEXICO

A CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON 17 AUGUST 2007

A CATEGORY 4 STORM ON 18 AUGUST 2007A CATEGORY 5 STORM ON 20 AUGUST

COORDINATED PLANNING BY USA, MEXICO, AND CANADA

• President Bush met with the leaders of Mexico and Canada on Monday, August 20th to continue coordinated planning of mutual assistance before the arrival of Hurricane Dean.

PATH OF DEAN: 20-21 AUGUST 2007

ADVANCE PREPARTIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

• The Gulf has 4,000 multi-million dollar oil and gas platforms and facilities that are at risk from hurricane Dean’s strong winds and high waves.

• Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 flooded oil refineries, toppled oil rigs, and cut pipelines.

PEMEX OIL AND GAS PLATFORM IN GULF OF MEXICO

ADVANCE PREPARTIONS OF FACILITIES AT RISK IN THE GULF

• Pemex, Mexico’s oil company, began evacuating 13,500 workers from its oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, August 20.

• Petroleos Mexicanos evacuated all 18,000 offshore workers and shut down production rigs on the Bay of Campeche.

• This action resulted in a loss of revenue from daily production of 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas

FOOD AND WATER GONE; CANCUN, MEXICO: AUGUST 19

REMEMBERING WILMA, TOURISTS LEAVE CANCUN: AUGUST 19

50,000 TOURISTS LEFT MEXICO BY AUGUST 20

CHETUMAL: TAKING SHELTER IN A SCHOOL; AUGUST 20

HURRICANE DEAN AT LANDFALL: AUGUST 21

• Hurricane Dean made landfall at Majahual, Mexico as a category 5 storm with winds of 165 mi/hr.

• Just before landfall, Dean had a minimum central pressure of 906 millibars, the third lowest pressure after the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

HURRICANE DEAN’S LANDFALL: AUGUST 21

• Hurricane Dean’s landfall at Majahual, a port popular with cruise liners, was “good luck” for the people of Mexico.

• This location was a sparsely populated coastline that had already been evacuated, so none of the major resorts took a direct hit.

• After a few hours, it became a category 2 storm.

MAYANS AT RISK: AUGUST 21

• Hurricane Dean threatened the Yucatan’s most vulnerable people — the Mayans, who have not benefited from tourism or oil production.

• They are poor, living simple lives, in wooden slat houses susceptible to wind damage that are located in low-lying areas prone to flooding.

LOCATION OF MEXICO’S MAYAN COMMUNITIES

IMPACTS IN MAJAHUAL

• Hundreds of homes collapsed in Mexico’s second busiest cruise ship destination.

• Steel girders collapsed and wooden structures splintered from the force of the wind.

• About one-half the concrete dock washed away in the storm surge.

MAJAHUAL LANDFALL: 270 KM/HR (165 MI/HR) WINDS; AUGUST 21

CHETUMAL: FLOODING ON AUGUST 21

BACALAR: FLOODING; AUGUST 21

HURRICANE DEAN’S SECOND LANDFALL: TECOLUTLA, MEXICO

THE SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO: AUGUST 22

• Hurricane Dean crossed the Bay of Campeche and made a second landfall as a category 2 storm on Wednesday, August 22.

• Landfall was at Tecolutla, a fishing town in the state of Veracruz on the Central Mexican coast, about 660 km (400 mi) from the border with Texas.

PRESIDENT FELIPE CALDERON VISITS CHETUMAL: AUGUST 22

STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL: AUGUST 22

• Hurricane Dean’s storm surge flooded Ciuidad del Carmen, a town of 120,000, with waist deep sea water.

• Heavy rain fall accompanying Dean, now a category 1 storm, caused rivers to rise rapidly in a region that experienced flooding and landslides in 1999.

MAYAN COMMUNITIES SEVERELY IMPACTED

• Mexico’s Mayan communities have survived many damaging storms and centuries of oppression, but surviving Hurricane Dean’s impacts on their livelihood may be their greatest challenge ever.

• The greatest impact was NOT the thousands of destroyed Mayan homes, but the downed fruit-bearing trees and the destroyed corn crops.

EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKES LIKE THE SEPTEMBER 19, 1985 QUAKE OCCUR

MAINLY AS A RESULT OF INTERACTIONS OF THE COCOS AND

NORTH AMERICAN PLATES

SUBDUCTION: COCOS AND NORTH AMERICAN PLATES

SCHOOL: MEXICO CITY; M8.1 QUAKE, SEPTEMBER 19, 1985

MEXICO CITY-- 400 BUILDINGS IN OLD LAKE BED ZONE DAMAGED

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

TSUNAMIS

LARGE SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKES CAN GENERATE

TSUNAMIS

TSUNAMI HAZARDTSUNAMI HAZARD

• TSUNAMIS ARE LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES CAUSED BY THE VERTICAL UPLIFT OF THE OCEAN FLOOR DURING A M7.0 OR GREATER EARTHQUAKE.

• TSUNAMIS ARE LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES CAUSED BY THE VERTICAL UPLIFT OF THE OCEAN FLOOR DURING A M7.0 OR GREATER EARTHQUAKE.

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

FLOODING

INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

FLOODS

FLOODS ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG

THUNDERSTORMS OR HURRICANES

70 % OF MEXICO’S TABASCO STATE UNDER WATER: NOV 2, 2007

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

STRUCTURE & CONTENTS: DAMAGE FROM WATER

WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)

EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

DISASTER LABORATORIES

DISASTER LABORATORIES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBDUCTION

ZONES.

ACTIVE VOLCANOES

EXPLOSIVE VOLCANOES OCCUR IN SUBDUCTION ZONES

ERUPTION OF POPOCATEPL PLACES MEXICO CITY AT RISK

LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

FLYING DEBRIS

VOLCANIC ASH

LAVA FLOWS

LAHARS

TOXIC GASES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

LANDSLIDES

LARGE VOLUME LANDSLIDES ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH

EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING AND HURRICANES

LANDSLIDE FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINS IN MEXICO: JULY 2007

SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES

LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS

SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS

PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING

GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES