Estimation of virtual water use for achieving the target of food self-sufficiency

ratio in South Korea

Department of Rural Systems EngineeringCollege of Agriculture and Life Sciences

Seoul National University

iamchoi@snu.ac.kr http://rwiel.snu.ac.kr

Jin-Yong Choi, Seung-Hwan Yoo, Sang-Hyun Lee, Jeong-Bin Im

1. Virtual water & Water footprint concept

2. Introduction

3. Methods (VWC and VWU)

4. VWU for per capita net food supply

5. VWU for consumption and production in 2015 and 2020

6. Summary and Conclusions

Contents

Virtual water concept

‘Virtual water’ (Allan, 1993)

The amount of water used to produce a certain product, expressed in cubic metes (m3)

‘embedded water’

Allan suggested that the industrial and agricultural commodity trade was also a trade in the water used for production of those commodities.

(Hoekstra et al., 2011)

[Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2008](Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2004; 2008)

Water footprint concept

Water Footprint

an indicator of freshwater use that looks at both direct and indirect water use of a consumer or producer

the total volume of freshwater used to produce the goods and services consumed by the individual or community

Water volume + Additional information (where, what, when)

(Hoekstra et al., 2011)

Introduction (1)

Population growth and life-style change Affecting the demand and supply of food, and land and water use

Increase in population, rapid industrialization and urbanization during the last half century in Korea

higher foods demand & decreased arable lands

Food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) in South Korea SSR for grain (including feed): 56% (1980) to 27% (2010) wheat, maize and beans: 0.5%, 1.0% and 9.8% in 2010

(KREI, 2011)

Introduction (2)

The food security situation in Korea faces challenges internally and externally.ex) decreased arable lands, climate change, drought

It is necessary for the Korean government to make agricultural policies more effective for stabilizing the food supply.

The MIFAFF* recognizes the necessity of enhancing its food SSR

Mid-long term targets for the grain SSR: 26.7% (2010) 30% (2015) 32% (2020) * MIFAFF: Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

(KREI, 2011)

Introduction (3)

To achieve this goal, additional agricultural water must be secured; however, discussions on the detailed quantity and security of the water are yet to be made.

The virtual water concept, in which the amount of water is estimated using the amount of crop production, is more suitable for estimating the potential agricultural water required to meet the target food SSR.

Introduction (4)

Objectives of this study,

Estimating the potential virtual water use (VWU) using consumption and production scenarios for the target food SSRs in 2015 and 2020 in Korea.

Methods – VWC and VWU

ProductioncCWRcVWC ][][

][][][][ aVWCaVWCaVWCaVWC servdrinkfeed

][][][ aorcPaorcVWCaorcVWU

VWC = the water required for the production of one ton

CWR = the quantity of water requirement

production = the quantity harvested per year

VWCfeed[a] = virtual water content of feed

VWCdrink[a] = drinking water consumption

VWCserv[a] = service water consumption

P = the amount of consumption or production

(Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004)

Virtual water content (VWC)Items VWC1) (m3/ton) Items VWC (m3/ton)

Cereals 　 Meats 　Wheat 1071.6 Bovine meat 14,249.8

Rice 1153.8 Pig meat 5,571.6

Barley 1210.3 Poultry meat 4,015.6

Starch roots 　 Edible viscera 10,606.4

Potato 134.8 Eggs & Milk 　Sweet potato 364.8 Eggs 3,805.7

Pulse 　 Milk 1,011.4

Soy beans 3,299.3 Feed 　 Vegetables and Fruits 　 Bulky feed 58.5

Vegetables 143 Formular feed 1,062.2

Fruits 465.2 　(Yoo et al., 2009; Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004)

Self-sufficiency ratio in KOREA

Meats

Pulse

Formula feed

Grains

(KREI, 2011)

Consumption scenarios in 2015 and 2020

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

rice wheat barley pulses starch roots

Con

sum

ptio

n (1

000

ton)

2004-2009 2015 2020

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

vegetables fruits

Con

sum

ptio

n(1

000

ton)

2004-2009 2015 2020

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

bovine meat pig meat poultry milks eggs

Con

sum

ptio

n(1

000

ton)

2004-2009 2015 2020

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

bulky feed formula feed

Con

sum

ptio

n(1

000

ton)

2004-2009 2015 2020

Production scenarios in 2015 and 2020

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

rice wheat barley pulses starch roots

Prod

uctio

n (1

000

ton)

2004-2009 2015 2020

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

bovine meat pig meat poultry milks eggs

Prod

uctio

n(1

000

ton)

2004-2009 2015 2020

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

bulky feed formula feed

Prod

uctio

n (1

000

ton)

2004-2009 2015 2020

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

vegetables fruits

Prod

uctio

n (1

000

ton)

2004-2009 2015 2020

Changes of VWU in 2015 and 2020Food items

(Mm3)

Average in 2005-2009 2015 2020

Consum.1) Prod. 2) Consum. Prod. Diff. 3) Consum. Prod. Diff.

Rice 5,708.8 5,468.9 5,038.5 4,938.1 -530.7 4,772.0 4,676.2 -792.6

Wheat 2,261.5 10.7 2,100.3 209.0 198.2 2,025.3 304.3 293.6

Barley 395.3 199.7 357.0 111.3 -88.4 357.0 111.3 -88.4

Pulses 1,462.2 497.5 1,544.1 560.9 63.3 1,643.0 664.1 166.6

Starch roots 210.1 206.5 178.0 175.6 -30.9 178.0 175.6 -30.9

Vegetables 1,543.1 1,421.5 1,602.0 1,377.4 -44.1 1,602.0 1,330.2 -91.3

Fruits 1,253.6 1,105.6 1,686.4 1,349.2 243.5 1,799.0 1,405.0 299.3

Bovine meat 5,272.1 2,431.9 7,367.1 3,306.0 874.1 7,737.6 3,676.4 1,244.6

Pig meat 4,999.6 3,917.9 5,304.2 4,245.6 327.6 5,437.9 4,351.4 433.5

Poultry 1,696.5 1,458.1 2,549.9 2,039.9 581.9 2,814.9 2,252.8 794.7

Edible viscera 4,789.0 4,788.6 4,789.0 4,788.6 - 4,789.0 4,788.6 -

Milk 3,251.7 2,326.0 3,337.3 2,174.4 -151.6 3,370.5 2,161.6 -164.4

Eggs 2,077.9 2,068.2 2,374.8 2,351.9 283.7 2,496.5 2,469.9 401.7

Bulky feed 271.7 222.2 396.5 345.6 123.3 464.0 415.3 193.1

Formula feed 17,063.6 4,190.0 19,482.9 4,707.7 517.7 19,156.8 4,707.7 517.7

Total 52,256.7 30,313.3 58,108.0 32,681.2 2,367.6 58,643.5 33,490.4 3,177.21) Consum.: virtual water use for consumption 2) Prod.: virtual water use for production3) Diff.: difference between the average VWU for production in 2005-2009 and 2015 (or 2020)

Additional net VWU for productionin 2015 and 2020

Annual demand for agricultural water (AWD) 15,690 Mm3 in 2016 and 15,583 Mm3 in 2020 (MCT, 2006)

Additional net VWUs: 1,062 Mm3 6.8% of AWD (2015) 892 Mm3 5.7% of AWD (2020)

-388.4

199.4

610.0 641.0

-451.6

208.0

424.6

710.8

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Grains Vegetables andFruits

Animal products Feed

Add

ition

al V

WU

(Mm

3 )

2015 2020 excluding imported feed

VW import in 2015 and 2020

VW import 2005-2009 (avg.): 21,943 Mm3

2015: 25,426 Mm3 (+3,483 Mm3), 2020: 25,152 Mm3 (+3,209 Mm3)

3,655

269

5,096

12,923

3,223

562

6,815

14,826

3,044

666

6,945

14,498

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Grains Vegetables and Fruits Animal products Feed

VW

impo

rt(M

m3 )

2005-2009 2015 2020

Summary and Conclusions

In this research,

The VWUs required to secure the target food SSRs for 2015 and 2020 were calculated

additional net VWUs: 1,062 Mm3 (2015), 892 Mm3 (2020)

To serve as the basis for establishing long-term policies on the agricultural water resources.

To provide information and data which are required for the agricultural water resources management.

To use the basic data for national agricultural water footprint

Thank you

Introduction (4)

Objectives of this study,

Analyzing the trends in per capita virtual water use in accordance with the change of the food consumption pattern in the past years

Estimating the potential virtual water use (VWU) using consumption and production scenarios for the target food SSRs in 2015 and 2020 in Korea.

Self-sufficiency ratio in KOREA

Meats

Pulse

Formula feed

Grains

(KREI, 2011)

Changes of VWU in 2015 and 2020Food items

(Mm3)

Average in 2005-2009 2015 2020

Consum.1) Prod. 2) Consum. Prod. Diff. 3) Consum. Prod. Diff.

Rice 5,708.8 5,468.9 5,038.5 4,938.1 -530.7 4,772.0 4,676.2 -792.6

Wheat 2,261.5 10.7 2,100.3 209.0 198.2 2,025.3 304.3 293.6

Barley 395.3 199.7 357.0 111.3 -88.4 357.0 111.3 -88.4

Pulses 1,719.9 550.2 1,544.1 560.9 10.7 1,643.0 664.1 114.0

Starch roots 210.1 206.5 178.0 175.6 -30.9 178.0 175.6 -30.9

Vegetables 1,543.1 1,421.5 1,602.0 1,377.4 -44.1 1,602.0 1,330.2 -91.3

Fruits 1,465.8 1,249.2 1,686.4 1,349.2 100.0 1,799.0 1,405.0 155.8

Bovine meat 5,272.2 2,431.9 7,367.3 3,306.0 874.1 7,737.8 3,676.5 1,244.6

Pig meat 4,999.6 3,917.9 5,304.2 4,245.6 327.6 5,437.9 4,351.4 433.5

Poultry 1,696.5 1,458.1 2,549.9 2,039.9 581.9 2,814.9 2,252.8 794.7

Milk 3,251.7 2,326.0 3,337.3 2,174.4 -151.6 3,370.5 2,161.6 -164.4

Eggs 2,077.9 2,068.2 2,374.8 2,351.9 283.7 2,496.5 2,469.9 401.7

Bulky feed 648.0 530.0 945.4 824.0 294.1 1,106.4 990.3 460.4

Formula feed 18,923.9 4,646.7 21,606.9 5,220.9 574.2 21,245.2 5,220.9 574.2

Total 50,174.3 26,485.6 55,992.0 28,884.3 2,398.7 56,585.6 29,790.2 3,304.7

Total except feed 30,602.4 21,308.9 33,439.7 22,839.4 1,530.5 34,234.0 23,579.0 2,270.2

　 Ratio4) 　 69.6 % 　 68.3 % 　 　 68.9 % 　1) Consum.: virtual water use for consumption 2) Prod.: virtual water use for production

3) Diff.: difference between the average VWU for production in 2005-2009 and 2015 (or 2020)

4) Ratio: VWU for production / VWU for consumption

Per capita net food supply (NFScap) in KOREA

FoodPer capita net food supply (kg/yr)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009

Cereals 185.4 175.4 173.1 166.8 150.5 139.3

Starch roots 11.9 11.0 11.0 11.8 17.0 13.7

Pulse 10.7 10.3 11.1 10.7 11.4 9.8

Tree nuts 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.5

Oil crops 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.8

Vegetables 98.6 132.6 160.6 165.9 145.5 152.5

Fruits 26.6 29.0 39.1 40.7 44.7 47.7

Meats 16.3 23.6 32.7 37.5 36.6 43.3

Eggs 6.3 7.9 8.6 8.6 9.1 10.0

Milks 19.2 31.8 38.5 49.3 54.0 53.3

Sugars 11.7 15.3 17.8 17.9 21.2 23.8

Oil and Fats 9.2 14.3 14.2 15.9 18.7 13.3

(KREI, 2011)

VWU for NFScap

546.6 m3

861.1 m3

797.0 m3