demographic transition in iran

8/12/2019 Demographic Transition in Iran

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Case Study: Demographic

Transitions in IranBar Ilan Univ. 08.05.2012


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Whats demographic transition?Reminder

Demographic transition process refers to the

transition from high birth and death rates to low

birth and death rates as a country develops froma pre-industrial to an industrialized economic

system


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The Three Stages of Population

Transition

First Stage: Total population growth rate is lowbut it is balanced due to high birth rates and highdeath rates

Second Stage: Total population growth rate risesas death rates fall due to improvements in healthcare and sanitation. Birth rates remain high

Third Stage: Total population is high, but it is

balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate.Birth control is widely available and there is adesire for smaller families.


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0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Demographic Transition

mortality rates(%) birth rates(%) net population growth(%)

first stage second stagethird stage

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Population Growth

population (t0=100) Poly. (population (t0=100))


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Whats special about Iran

While Iran's population grew at a rate of more than 3% per yearbetween 1956 and 1986, the growth rate began to decline in thelate 1980s and early 1990s after the government initiated a majorpopulation control program. By 2007 the growth rate had declinedto 0.7 percent per year, with a birth rate of 17 per 1,000 persons

and a death rate of 6 per 1,000.

Iran has experienced one of the most successful family planningprograms in the developing world, with 64 percent decline in totalfertility rate (TFR) between 1986 and 2000.

Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in 2000 indicated a TFRof 2.0 births per women and 74 percent contraceptive use amongmarried women.

Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, isruled under the law ofIslam and has a theocratic constitution.


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IranDemographic Facts

AfganistanIsraelWorldIran

29,835,3907,848,800-77,891,220Population, Total (2011 est.)

2.381.9%1.1%1.2%Population Growth37.8321.419.318.55Birth Rate per 1,000 people

17.395.28.35.94Death Rate per 1,000 people

5.642.672.521.88Total Fertility Rate


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1900-1979Pre-revolutionary Era

Prevalence of a high crude birth rate of about 45-50 per thousand and, a total

fertility rate above 7-8 children per woman

Moderate mortality decline during the second quarter of the century, while

accelerated during 1956-66.

Demographic Awareness- An informal family planning program in early 1960s

Annual Growth Rate

(%)Population Size in millionsyear

>0.3101900

0.3-0.811-121926

1.3-1.814-151941

1.8-2.219-201956

2.5-2.925-261966

2.7-3.1341976

3.3371979


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Khomeini Era 1979-1980 and Iran-Iraq

War 1980-1988In the early years after the revolution there were no official populationpolicies in the governments agenda. New leaders viewed anypopulation program as a Western tool to dominate the ThirdWorldcountries and reduce the number of Muslims.

During the eight-year war with Iraq (1980-1988), the country wasaiming for an Army of 20 million. Large families were a corerevolutionary value; necessary to raise soldiers to defend the country.In addition to higher birth rates:

An influx of refugee immigrants from neighboring countriescontributed to a rapid rise in the population growth rate

Improved primary health care resulted in sharp declines in

infant and maternal mortality rates between 1981 and 1986.


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The National Five Year Socioeconomic

Development Plans:1989-1994 and 1994-1999

Motivation: From 1976-1986, Iran's population

increased at an average annual rate of 3.4%, and

was 49.4 million by the end of the 10-year

period.2 As a result, the government faced great

demands for food, health care, education and

employment.


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In 1989, the government along with the clergy

introduced a family planning program with three

major goals:

encouraging women to space their

pregnancies by 3-4 years,

discouraging pregnancy among women

younger than 18 and older than 35,

limiting family size to three children


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To accomplish these objectives, the government developed the followingstrategies:

Organizing educational programs on population issues for the generalpublic

Increasing married couples access to free contraceptives

Developing the model of service delivery in urban and rural areas. Implementation of disincentives policies for families with more than three

children: For example banning public benefits, such as paid maternity leave andsocial welfare subsidies to low-income women, for the birth of any child after thethird.

Government officials and religious leaders* have promoted family

planning and smaller families Voluntary sterilization for Males an d Females (Vasectomy and Tubectomy)

* Despite the strong opposition to abortion, clerics have endorsed the government's familyplanning program.


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Other Causes for the Decrease in the

Population Growth Rate Increased educational opportunities for women: From 1976-1986, the

female literacy rate almost doubled in both rural and urban areas.

Increased job opportunities for women: Parents are expressing greatercomfort with having their daughters work (in gender-segregatedenvironments), and the government is promoting greater socialparticipation for women

Constant decline in Infant Mortality: Contraception probably could nothave succeeded if there had not been a large decline in infant mortality.Between 1976 and 1991, infant mortality decreased from a rate of 112infant deaths per 1000 live births to a rate of 63.2, a decline of almost50%.

Economic Factors: Iran's continued dependency on oil revenues as thesource of government funds, devaluations of the Iranian currency, removalof a number of subsidies on imported goods have all placed significanteconomic pressures on the Iranian family and have reduced theirpurchasing power.


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In years to come


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Sources

Fertility, Contraceptive Use and Family Planning Program Activity in the Islamic Republic of Iran, byAkbar Aghajanian (1999)

Case study: fertility decline in Iran, by Farnaz Vahidnia (2007)

Prospects for Development and Population Growth in Iran, by Samuel S. Lieberman (1979)

The Fertility Transition in Iran, by Marie Ladier-Louladi (1997)

US Census http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php

UN Data Base http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmand http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm

World Bank http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4
http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.phphttp://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmhttp://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmhttp://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmhttp://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmhttp://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmhttp://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmhttp://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.phphttp://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php


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End

demographic transition in iran

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