Population Profiles and Demographic Transitions

-Analyzing human population by country and population changes.

Age structure• Population profiles shows the age structure of a

population, which is the distribution of population by age• These profiles help demographers project how

populations will change over time.• shows the age and gender composition of a region• horizontal axis: divides gender and shows absolute

number of people or in percentage of populationo male: left-hand female: right-hand

• vertical axis: age in 5-year or 10-year intervals

Comparing 3 different growth pyramids

Overview of pyramids

China Population Pyramid in 2005

Check you Pyramid Profile knowledge.

• http://www.ageworks.com/course_demo/200/module2/module2b.htm

• What do the examples on the website show?

• Read the text to confirm your answers.

Population Pyramids and Demographic Stages

• characteristics shapes of ‘pyramids’o wide base (true pyramid)o wide middle (bulge), somewhat wider baseo urn- or bottle-shapedo reversed pyramid

• Pre-reproductive Age: 0-14• Reproductive Age: 15-44• Post-Reproductive Age: 45 and older

Demographic transitions

• Definition: tendency for a population to shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. Often occurs from economic and social development.

• Countries are usually classified into two groups: • Developed (US, Japan, France)• Developing (moderately/less developed): Mexico,

Thailand, Ethiopia• These categories usually experience similar population

dynamics.

Population Paradox: Key terms

• Total Fertility Rate: Average number of children born to each woman

• Replacement level fertility: Number of children a couple must produce in order to “replace” themselves

• RLF ranges (2.1-2.7) depending on the country. Why?• Infant mortality rates: number of infant deaths per 1,000

live births

Demographic Transitions

Phase 1 (preindustrial stage)

• high birth rates, high (at time erratic) death rates, low growth rates

• stage for much of human history, traditional societies where people were susceptible to disease and family planning was nonexistent

• practically no country today

Phase 2 (transitional stage)

• high birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates

• improvements in sanitation (water) and medicine, lack of family planning

• in developing countries such as Iraq, Nepal, etc.

• Population Momentum: population will continue to grow for 50-60 years after reaching replacement fertitlity

Phase 3 (industrial stage)

• continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates, growth rates decline from high to lower levels

• change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rate

• economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children/ China), changes in women’s role, better healthcare

Phase 4 (postindustrial stage)

• Phase 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rateso United States,

Canada• Better education, more

affluent, cultural attitude toward smaller families, better standard of living

What happens after Phase 4?

• Phase 5?: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)

• Zero population growth: birth rates equal death rates and there is no growth.

• Graying population: proportion of elderly is increasingo Western Europe, Japan, Italy, Spain