Demographic Transition

Model

• *The DTM describes a sequence of changes in the relationships between birth and death rates.

• *The model was produced using changes in the natural increase in several countries in Western Europe and North America.

•It suggests that the population growth rates for all countries can be divided into 4 stages.

Stage 1

•Birth Rate - Very High•Death Rate - Very High•Natural Increase -

Population Steady

•Reasons for changes in birth rate:

• Children needed for farming• They die at an early age due to

illnesses• No family planning• And religious and social

encouragement.

•Reasons for changes in death rate:

• Disease• Famine • Poor medical knowledge and so

many people die.

Stage 2

•Birth Rate - Very High•Death Rate - Falling Rapidly•Natural Increase - Very

Rapid Increase

•Reasons for changes in birth rate:

• Children needed for farming• They die at an early age due to

illnesses• No family planning and religious and

social encouragement. (same as stage 1)

•Reasons for change in death rate:

• Improvements in medical care• Water • Supply and sanitation• Fewer children die.

Stage 3

•Birth Rate: Falling rapidly•Death Rate: Falling more

slowly•Natural Increase: Rapid

increase

•Reasons for changes in birth rate:

• Improved medical care and diet• Fewer children are needed

•Reasons for changes in death rate:

• Improvements in medical care • Water• Supply and sanitation • Fewer children die

Stage 4

• Birth Rate: Falling more slowly• Death rate: Slight fall• Natural Increase: Very slow

increase

•Reasons for changes in birth rate:

• Family planning• Good health • Later marriages • Improving status of women

•Reasons for changes in death rate:

• Good health care• Reliable food supply• People are living much longer

Stage 5

• Birth Rate: Slight fall• Death Rate: Stable• Natural Increase: Gentle decrease

•Reasons for changes in birth rate:

• Family planning• Good health• Later marriages• Improving status of women

•Reasons for changes in death rate:

• Good health care• Reliable food supply• People are living much longer

Examples

• Stage 1: A few remote Groups• Stage 2:Egypt, Kenya, India• Stage 3: Brazil• Stage 4: USA, Japan, France, UK• Stage 5: Germany (the future)

Produced by Amy