democratizing energy technology · kick-off meeting. think small catalytic process scaling...
TRANSCRIPT
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REFUEL PROGRAMKick-Off Meeting
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THINK SMALLCatalytic Process Scaling
Centralized vs Decentralized
Dane A. Boysen, PhDLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Denver, COAugust 17, 2017
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Historic Events
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England and all civilised nations stand in deadly peril of not having enough to eat [...] The fixation of atmospheric nitrogen is one of the great discoveries, awaiting the genius of chemists.
SIR WILLIAM CROOKES, 1898
“”
Presidential Address to British Association for the Advancement of Science
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Haber-Bosch Process,1909
• N2 + 3 H2 → 2 NH3
• About 50% of nitrogen in our body comes this process
• Earth able to support only 3 billion people without it
• Current world population over 7 billion people
DR. FRITZ HABER(1968-1934)
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World War I1914-1918
• Carl Bosch, BASF CEO (1919-1926)
• BASF erected first Haber-Bosch plant in Oppau in 1913—produced 9,000 tons/day ammonia
• Plant converted to make gun powder during WWI
• Today’s BASF Ludwigshafen plant produces 875,000 tons/day ammonia
BASF Oppau, Germany, 1921
CARL BOSCH(1874-1940)
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BASF Ammonia Facility, Oppau, Germany
25tons per day ammonia
1913
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BASF Ammonia Facility Ludwigshafen, Germany
2,400tons per day ammonia
2016
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Ammonia Plant Scale-upCAPACITY VERSUS NORMALIZED COST
Industry Average
After 100 years, the Haber-Bosch process looks virtually the same
except one feature:
unit sizeBASF 1913
BASF 2015
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Energy Technology Today
AMMONIA PLANT
PRICE TAG $0.5-5 BN
PRICE TAG $5-50 BN
GTL PLANTCOAL POWER PLANT
PRICE TAG $1-10 BN
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Why do we go big?
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Economies of Unit Scale
Sources: (1) PJA Tijm. Gas to liquids, Fischer-Tropsch, advanced energy technology, future's pathway. Feb 2010; (2) C. Kopp. The US Air Force Synthetic Fuels Program. Technical Report APA-TR-2008-0102. (2008)
“2/3 scaling law”
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
1 100 10,000
Cos
t, k
/ ($/
bpd)
Capacity, c / bpd
EscravosPearl
pilot
commercial
GAS-TO-LIQUIDS PLANTS
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Why do we scale-up?ARGUMENTcapital cost ∝ area [L2]capacity ∝ volume [L3]capital cost / capacity ∝ [L2]/[L3]
FLAWpipe thickness ignoredhoop stress (constant) ∝ t / rcapital cost ∝ l · r2
capital cost / capacity ∝ constant
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Why is scale-up a problem?
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HUGE CAPITAL RISK
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Source: E.W. Merrow. Understanding the outcomes of megaprojects: a quantitative analysis of very large civilian projects, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 1988.
Shell Pearl GTL Facility, Qatar
RAND Study:• 52 mega-projects • $0.5B and $10B (1984 dollars)• average over budget = 90%
MEGA-PROJECT ECONOMICS
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1,30
5,23
3
3,30
2,80
3
1,24
4,16
4
176,
850
19,6
05
775
217
8$61 $1
,250
$3,4
74
$4,6
31
$11,
004
$2,7
03
$5,1
69
$1,4
55
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
< $100k < $1M < $10M < $100M < $1B < $10B < $100B > $100B
Companies(number)
Revenues($ billions)
Capital ResourcesU.S. COMPANIES BY REVENUE, 2007
8 companies
How many U.S. companies can finance a $1 billion plant?
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Capital ResourcesGDP OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES, 2015
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_african_countries_by_gdp_(nominal)
0.1
1
10
100
Nig
eria
Sou
th A
frica
Egy
ptA
lger
iaM
oroc
coA
ngol
aS
udan
Ken
yaE
thio
pia
Tanz
ania
Tuni
sia
DR
Con
goG
hana
Liby
aIv
ory
Coa
stC
amer
oon
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Moz
ambi
que
Sen
egal
Zim
babw
eG
abon
Bot
swan
aN
amib
iaS
outh
Sud
anC
had
Mau
ritiu
sB
urki
na F
aso
Mal
iE
quat
oria
l Gui
nea
Mad
agas
car
Con
goR
wan
daB
enin
Nig
erG
uine
aM
alaw
iM
aurit
ania
Sie
rra
Leon
eE
ritre
aS
waz
iland
Togo
Bur
undi
Leso
tho
Libe
riaD
jibou
tiC
ape
Ver
deC
. Afri
can
Rep
ublic
Sey
chel
les
Gui
nea-
Bis
sau
Gam
bia
Com
oros
São
Tom
e/Pr
icip
e
GD
P / (
$ bi
llion
s)
6 countries
How many African countries can finance a $1 billion plant?
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BARRIER TO INNOVATION
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Innovation Challenge
GTL PLANT
(boe/d) ($/bpd) plant cost
1 47,000k $47M
10 10,000k $100M
100 2,200k $220M
1k 470k $470M
10k 100k $1,000M
AMMONIA PLANT
(ton/d) ($/tpd) plant cost
1 10,000k $10M
10 4,500 $25M
100 2,000k $200M
1k 900k $900M
10k 400k $4,000M
FINANCING ECONOMIES OF SCALE
calculated from “2/3 scaling law”
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Innovation Challenge
GTL PLANT
(boe/d) ($/bpd) plant cost
1 47,000k $47M
10 10,000k $100M
100 2,200k $220M
1k 470k $470M
10k 100k $1,000M
AMMONIA PLANT
(ton/d) ($/tpd) plant cost
1 10,000k $10M
10 4,500 $25M
100 2,000k $200M
1k 900k $900M
10k 400k $4,000M
FINANCING ECONOMIES OF SCALE
calculated from “2/3 scaling law”
R&D demo
pilot demo
commercial
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R&D Spending
FY 2015 $561MFY 2014 $570MFY 2013* $495MFY 2012* $337MFY 2011 $434MFY 2010 $660MFY 2009 $876MFY 2008 $465M
OFFICE OF FOSSIL ENERGY BUDGET
Pilot chemical and power plants require more than $200M
*continuing resolution
How can we innovate with vastly inadequate funding?
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DISTRIBUTED CHALLENGES
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Developing World
AFRICA17% WORLD POPULATION1% WORLD FERTILIZER USE
In 1999, Uganda farmers bought urea for $600/ton, global market price was $100/ton, why?
• Market size (< 1% global market)• Transport cost (>$50/ton, 30% total)• Finance cost ($300k, 1 kton)
Source: World Bank, 2015
DISTRIBUTED MARKETS
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Isaac Mkalia, 20, checks his mobile phone in Kojiado district, near the Tanzanian border (Photograph: Sven Torfinn/Oxfam)
Isaac can make a phone call to anywhere in the world, but he can’t make his own fertilizer
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Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/NOAA NGDC
Chicago
MinneapolisSt. Paul
Denver
St. LouisKansas
City
Can you guess this city?
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Natural Gas Flaring
NORTH DAKOTA FLARING
• North Dakota flares roughly 20% of produced natural gas
• Most flaring is under 300 mcf/d, but highly time dependent
• Small wells are uneconomical to bring to market
DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1
10
100
1,000
Flar
ing
Con
tribu
tion
Wel
l Num
ber
Well Flare Rate / (mcf/d)
wells
flaring
North Dakota Flaring, 2011total: 4,367 mmcf/d
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How do we break the hegemony of scale-up?
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Democratizing Technology
1450GütenburgPress
INFORMATION
1977Commodore PET
COMPUTATION
1908Ford Model T
TRANSPORTATION
1950ISO Shipping Container
SHIPPING
1973Motorola DynaTAC 8000X
COMMUNICATION
HISTORIC EXAMPLES
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Democratizing Technology
1. Empowers the little guy
2. Never developed by the incumbent
3. Displaces entrenched incumbent
4. Levels the playing field
5. Leverages capital of the many
6. Modular, mass produced, standardized
7. Fast innovation cycles
WHAT ARE THE DEFINING FEATURES?
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…and there are many examples
guns …displaced swords
Gutenberg press …displaced illuminated manuscripts
iso-containers …displaced bulk shipping
cellular phones …displaced land lines
personal computers …displaced central computing
automobiles …displaced horses
photovoltaics …displaced solar thermal
electric-arc furnaces …displaced blast furnaces
e-commerce …displaced store fronts
televisions …displaced theatres
record players …displaced live musicians
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1,000
10,000
100,000
1 100 10,000 1,000,000
Cos
t / ($
/uni
t)
Production / units
Economies of Unit Number
Sources: (1) PJA Tijm. Gas to liquids, Fischer-Tropsch, advanced energy technology, future's pathway. Feb 2010; (2) C. Kopp. The US Air Force Synthetic Fuels Program. Technical Report APA-TR-2008-0102. (2008)
FORD MODEL T, 1909-1916
“experience learning”
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Modular DesignMODULAR VS INTEGRAL
MODULAR INTEGRAL
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MODULAR INTEGRAL
MODULAR VS INTEGRALModular Design
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OIL REFINERY (WORLD)
• 7 TW petroleum refining• 700 plants• $500/kW capex
AUTO ENGINES (U.S.)
• 1.3 TW motive power• 250 million engines• $50/kW capex
Small Modular
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GAS TURBINES (U.S.)
• 0.2 TW electricity• 5000 gas turbine generators • $1000/kW capex
AUTO ENGINES (U.S.)
• 1.3 TW motive power• 250 million engines• $50/kW capex
Small Modular
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What about the democratization of chemical processing?
not if, but when and who
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Democratization through Innovation
1450GütenburgPress
INFORM
????Modular Chemical Plants
PROCESSING
1908Ford Model T
TRANSPORT
1950ISO Shipping Container
SHIP
1973Motorola DynaTAC 8000X
COMMUNICATE
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Isaac Mkalia, 20, checks his mobile phone in Kojiado district, near the Tanzanian border (Photograph: Sven Torfinn/Oxfam)