democracy international - afghanistan public opinion poll december 2013
DESCRIPTION
Democracy International's first public opinion poll in Afghanistan is one of three nationwide surveys in advance of presidential and provincial council elections planned for April 2014. These surveys seek to learn about voter preferences on key election issues, voter participation trends, and candidates.TRANSCRIPT
PUBLIC OPINION POLL #1
METHODOLOGY AND KEY FINDINGS
www.democracyinternational.com 1
OBJECTIVE
2
To inform voters and candidates in a timely manner about key election issues, voter participation trends and level of public support for individual candidates.
METHODOLOGY
3
Study design• Quantitative Survey
Questionnaire • Desk Review of Existing Literature• Qualitative Interviews & Focus Group Discussions
National and International Experts Leaders/Members of Civil Society Organizations
Pilot test• 3 settlements (Urban & Rural) - Random Selection
To Ensure the Clarity of Individual Questions To Fine-tune Each Question Based on the Pretest Results
4
Sample Size and Stratification• 2500 Face-to-Face Interviews in 500 PSUs
METHODOLOGY
5
Sample Size and Stratification• 115 Districts and 34 Provinces
METHODOLOGY
METHODOLOGY
6
Stratification (Distribution of Sampling Points):
• (PPS) Sampling Plan, Multi-stage Random Sampling :
Provincial level: Proportional to Population Size of Each Province
(CSO 2013 Population Data)
Urban/Rural: Proportional to Urban/Rural Population
District selection: Random Selection of Districts
PSU (Primary Sampling Unit): Random Selection of Settlements in
Each Selected District
SSU (Households): Households Selected Using Systematic
Random Sampling
Selection of Respondent: Respondents Selected Using the Kish
Grid
7
Data Collection & Quality Control
• SPS: 100 Interviewers (Male & Female), 35 Provincial
Supervisors
• Back check by DI Quality Control Officers 8%
• Observation by DI Quality Control Officers 8%
Inaccessibility and Replacements:
• (4.5%) sampling points replaced (Security)
METHODOLOGY
8
Margins of Error - Overview• The Margin of Error (MoE) for the entire population is estimated to be
(±1.96%). • With each subsequent decrease in the sub-sample of the population the MoE
increases.MARGINS OF ERROR
Total Sample_x000d_(n
= 2500)
Females_x000d_(n = 1254)
Hazara_x000d_(n = 291)
University_x000d_(n = 148)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Agree
EXAMPLE: Do you agree or disagree that…?
METHODOLOGY
9
Population SampleMARGIN OF ERROR (at 95% confidence)
Total Sample 2500 ± 1.96%
GenderMale 1246 ± 1.97%
Female 1254 ± 1.95%
Ethnic
Pashtun 977 ± 2.45%
Tajik 886 ± 2.65%
Hazara 291 ± 5.40%
EducationSecondary 213 ± 6.42%
University or above 148 ± 7.82%
Margins of Error – Gender, Ethnic Group & Education Level
METHODOLOGY
GENERAL ISSUES
10
11
Security issues/ Ter-rorism48%
Poor economy/Poverty19%
Unemployment17%
Government/Weak au-thority4.1%
Lack of Education/ Low Literacy
4%
Corruption committed by authorities
3.6%
Lack of electricity1.3%
Unpaved Roads0.9%
Lack of health care1%
Crime0.8%
Lack of potable drinking water0.3%
Lack of national unity0.1%
Foreign occupation0.1%
THE SECOND BIGGEST PROBLEM
Unemployment26%
Poor economy/Poverty18%
Corruption committed by authorities
12%
Government/Weak authority
9%
Lack of Education/Schools/ Low Literacy
9%
Security issues/Violence/Terrorism
7%
Lack of electricity6%
Crime4%
Unpaved Roads4%
Lack of health care centers/Poor quality of health care services
3%
Lack of potable drinking water
2%
BIGGEST PROBLEM AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL
12
Poor economy/Poverty27%
Unemployment26%
Unpaved Roads4.9%
Lack of potable drinking water3%
Lack of Governance/Weak authority2.9% Corruption committed by authorities
2.1%
Lack of health care centers/ Health care services2%
Crime0.6%
THE SECOND BIGGEST PROBLEMUnemployment 20%Lack of electricity 14%Unpaved Roads 12%Poor economy/Poverty 12%Lack of Education/Schools/ Low Literacy 9%Corruption committed by authorities 7%
Lack of health care centers/Poor quality of health care services 6%
Lack of governance/Weak authority 6%Lack of potable drinking water 6%Security issues/Violence/Terrorism 4%Crime 2%
BIGGEST PROBLEM AT THE COMMUNITY LEVEL
13
Wrong Direction 21%
Some in right, some in wrong 34%
Right Direction 33%
Don’t Know 12%
Freedom of movement
Peace/End of war
Good government
Legitimate Constitution
Better economic conditions
Democracy/Elections
International assistance
Good security
Schools for girls have opened
Good reconstruction
1%
2%
4%
4%
5%
10%
11%
14%
17%
32%
Deficiencies in the education system
Lack of international development assistance
Neighboring countries causing problems
Presence of the Taliban
No reconstruction has occurred
Poor economy
Innocent people being killed
Administrative corruption
Poor governance
Insecurity
1%
2%
4%
7%
8%
8%
9%
14%
21%
23%REASONS FOR GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION REASONS FOR GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION
COUNTRY’S DIRECTION
14
Very bad Fairly bad Fairly good Very good
22%19%
41%
14%
Very bad Fairly bad Fairly good Very good
13%
19%
49%
17%
COUNTRY’S PRESENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
RESPONDENTS’ PRESENT LIVING CONDITIONS
PRESENT LIVING AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
15
No26%
Yes72%
Refused2%
No14%
Yes81%
Refused5%
5 YEARS AGO 15 YEARS AGO(DURING THE TALIBAN
GOVERNANCE)
FEELING MORE ECONOMICALLY SECURE COMPARED TO:
16
A lot w
orse
The sa
me
Little
bet
ter
Muc
h be
tter
14%
32% 31%
21%
A lot w
orse
The sa
me
Little
bet
ter
Muc
h be
tter
20%
30%
34%
12%
COUNTRY LOCAL AREA
SECURITY SITUATION TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST 12 MONTHS
17
A lot w
orse
The sa
me
Little
bet
ter
Muc
h be
tter
Don’t K
now
13% 14%17%
10%
46%
A lot w
orse
The sa
me
Little
bet
ter
Muc
h be
tter
Don’t K
now
10% 10%15%
11%
52%ELECTIONS TIME SUBSEQUENT 12 MONTHS
HOW WILL THE SECURITY SITUATION DEVELOP DURING:
DEMOCRACY AND INSTITUTIONS
18
19The Taliban
Political Parties
Local Commanders (Warloards) in your area
The Judiciary
Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC)
The Provincial Council
The Independent Election Commission (IEC)
The Wolesi Jirga
Your District Governor
Provincial Governor
The Media
Village leader (Malik/Arbab/Khan/Qaryadar)
Police
The President
Afghan National Army
Your neighbors
7%
24%
24%
35%
40%
45%
50%
44%
51%
46%
39%
35%
43%
43%
34%
22%
2%
7%
9%
11%
12%
16%
15%
21%
24%
29%
37%
44%
38%
43%
58%
71%
Some confidence A lot of confidence
CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY
20
No Democracy in Afghanistan
Dissatisfied Satisfied
4%
28%
60%
Dissatisfied Satisfied
19%
74%
THE WAY DEMOCRACY WORKS IN AFGHANISTAN
THE WAY ELECTIONS WORK IN AFGHANISTAN
SATISFACTION WITH:
IMPORTANCE OF AND PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS
21
22
To promote stronger democratic practices
To secure the delivery of better governmental services
To eliminate corruption
To promote national reconciliation
To ensure economic prosperity for all Afghan citizens
To secure a safe future for all Afghan citizens
33%
28%
22%
25%
26%
26%
48%
59%
65%
64%
67%
68%
Important Very important
94%
93%
89%
87%
87%
81%
IMPORTANCE OF HOLDING GENERAL ELECTIONS
23
2%11%
34%
52% 59%
96%
77%63%
44%34%
Disagree Agree
PARTICIPATING IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS
24
6%6%
92 % 92%
Disagree Agree
FACTORS PREVENTING WOMEN FROM PARTICIPATING IN ELECTIONS
Participation is not socially appropriate
Lack of accessibility of polling stations
Family members prevent them from participating
Lack of Awareness
Insecurity
13%
28%
35%
51%
70%
WOMEN AND ELECTIONS
25
No Yes
16%
83%
31%
68%
Male Female
24%
76%
No Not decided yet Yes
11%
29%
59%
31%
37%
31%
Male Female
41%24%
34%
WILL THEY REGISTER?
VOTER REGISTRATION BY GENDER
26
No 34%
Yes 65%
North West Central South East
24%27%
38%40%
44%
76%
70%
61% 60%
54%
No Yes
VOTED IN THE 2009 PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS
27
Disaree Agree Don’t Know
25%
55%
19%
North Central West East South
15%
31%
24%22%
38%
64%
59%
51% 50%
41%
19%
9%
25%27%
21%
Disagree Agree Don't Know
LEGITIMACY OF 2009 PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION
28
North West Central East South
2% 4%
15%10%
14%
92%87%
81% 80% 79%
6% 9%3%
9% 7%
No Yes Don't Know
8%
Yes 85%
7%
INTENTION TO VOTE IN 2014 PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION
Most peo-ple will not
vote
Most people
will vote
Don't Know
16%
66%
18%
Central North West East South
14%
5%
18% 16%
37%
77% 77%
59% 58%
43%
8%
18%
23% 25%
19%
Most people will not vote Most people will vote Don't Know
PERCEPTION OF NEIGHBORS’ VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS BY REGION
29
30
Family members
Media Friends Village elders/Tribal
leaders
GIRoA officials Religious leaders
Political party leaders
Taliban
9%4%
6% 8%4%
11%8%
75%
85% 83% 83%
73%71%
59%
49%
3%
Discouraging Encouraging
ENTITIES THAT ENCOURAGE/DISCOURAGE PARTICIPATION IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS
31Not
impo
rtant
at a
ll
Not ve
ry im
porta
nt
Impo
rtant
Very i
mpo
rtant
1% 3%
25%
67%
Central North East West South
1% 1% 1% 1%4%2% 2% 4% 3%
6%
18%
27%
19%25%
38%
78%
67% 67% 66%
51%
Not important at all Not very important Important Very important
IMPORTANCE OF VOTING IN INFLUENCING THE OUTCOME OF THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS BY REGION
32
Central North South East West
1.4% 0.3% 2.3% 1.0% 1.3%1% 2% 3% 3% 8%
15%
23% 21% 20%
28%
80%
72% 71% 70%
58%
Not important at all Not very important ImportantVery important
Not im
porta
nt a
t all
Not ve
ry im
porta
nt
Impo
rtant
Very i
mpo
rtant
1% 3%
21%
71%
IMPORTANCE OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FOR THE FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN BY REGION
33
Not in
clusiv
e
Somew
hat in
clusiv
e
Very i
nclu
sive
Don't K
now
7%
45%
28%
20%
Central South East West North
7%
15%
5%9%
2%
57%
51%
41% 40%38%
27%
17%
25% 24%
37%
9%
18%
28%26%
22%
Not inclusive Somewhat inclusive
Very inclusive Don't Know
INCLUSIVITY OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION
34
No Yes Don't Know
54%
15%
30%
Kuchis
Kyrkyz
Tajik
Turkmen
Uzbek
Hazara
Baloch
Nuristani
Pashtun
.9%
1%
2%
2%
2%
5%
6%
7%
63%
Fear of fraud in election
Not receiving information about election
Problem of roads
Male family members preventing women to vote
Lack of polling station in their area
Lack of awareness
Threat of Taliban
Insecurity
1%
3%
4%
6%
9%
9%
21%
26%
EXCLUDED ETHNIC GROUPS REASONS FOR BEING EXCLUDED
PERCENTAGE OF ETHNIC GROUPS BEING DISPROPORTIONATELY EXCLUDED FROM PARTICIPATING IN THE ELECTIONS
35
9%
48%
14%
28%
Central South West North East
12%16% 13%
4% 5%
60%53%
44% 44%40%
15%8%
12% 15%19%
14%
23%
30%36% 34%
Not transparent at all Fairly transparentVery transparent Don't Know
TRANSPARENCY OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION
36
Not fair at all Fairly fair Very fair Don't Know
10%
48%
14%
27%
Central South West North East
12%17%
14%
4% 6%
60%
51%47%
43% 43%
16%8%
11%16% 16%
13%
24%27%
36%35%
Not fair at all Fairly fair Very fair Don't Know
FAIRNESS OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION
INFORMATION ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTION
37
38
No in
form
atio
n
Some
info
rmat
ion,
but
not
suffic
ient
Suffic
ient
info
rmat
ion
23%
40%
30%
West
South
Central
East
North
30%
29%
28%
17%
17%
36%
45%
30%
52%
41%
21%
23%
41%
22%
34%
No information Some information, but not sufficient
Sufficient information
21%
41%34%
26%40%
26%
Male Female
RECEIVED INFORMATION ABOUT VOTER REGISTRATION BY GENDER
39
The internet
Newspapers
Mosque
Mullahs
Independent Election Commission
Friends or neighbors
Family members
Elders
Radio
Television
8%
15%
18%
23%
33%
44%
46%
47%
57%
59%
Information about political parties
Information about the incumbents, their policies, successes and failures
Information about how to file an electoral complaint
Information about electoral law and human rights
Information about security arrangements to protect voters
Information about the location of polling stations
Information about Islam and elections
Information about how to vote/choose candidates on a ballot
Information about voter registration
Information about candidates
17%
19%
20%
28%
31%
43%
50%
52%
61%
76%
SOURCE OF INFORMATION
TYPES OF INFORMATION
SOURCES AND TYPES OF INFORMATION
40
Did n
ot re
ceive
any
info
rmat
ion
Not h
elpf
ul a
t all
Fairly
hel
pful
Very h
elpf
ul
11% 9%
53%
25%
18%
11%
50%
17%
Male Female
Did n
ot re
ceive
any
info
rmat
ion
Not h
elpf
ul a
t all
Fairly
hel
pful
Very h
elpf
ul
14%10%
52%
21%
HELPFULNESS OF THE INFORMATION RECEIVED BY GENDER
CANDIDATES
41
42
Hedayat Amin Arsala
Engineer Qotbuddin Helal
Mohammad Nadir Naiem
Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi
Zalmai Rasoul
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzai
Professor Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf
Abdul Qayum Karzai
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
35%
35%
36%
39%
53%
62%
65%
78%
81%
86%
92%
HEARD ABOUT THE CANDIDATE
FAMILIARITY WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
43
Dr. Abdul-lah Abdul-
lah
Ashraf Ghani
Ahmadzai
Abdul Qayum Karzai
Prof. Abdul Rab Rasul
Sayyaf
Gul Agha Sherzai
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Zalmai Rasoul
Mohammad Dawood
Soltanzoi
Engineer Qotbuddin
Helal
Mohammad Nadir Naiem
Hedayat Amin Arsala
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%94.9%
89.1%
82.8%86.4%
71.0%
76.2%
63.5%
52.7%
45.5% 46.6%50.9%
Central North East West South
FAMILIARITY WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BY REGION
44Hedayat Amin Arsala
Mohammad Nadir Naiem
Engineer Qotbuddin Helal
Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Zalmai Rasoul
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzai
Professor Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf
Abdul Qayum Karzai
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
59%
59%
58%
56%
56%
53%
53%
54%
41%
39%
39%
11%
15%
15%
16%
17%
25%
25%
27%
40%
48%
52%
Least likely Most likely
LIKELY TO SUPPORT THE CANDIDATE
SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
45
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%69.0%
31.9
%
47
.5%
19.9%
26
.8%
23
.3%
16.9% 17.8%
25.7%
39.3
%
24.4%
56
.5%
15
.8%
43
.7%
7.5
%
25
.0%
9.0
%
3.9
%
3.1
% 7.7
%
29
.2%
8.8
%
23
.7%
23.9
%61.6%
17
.5%
14
.0% 2
0.7
%
6.8
%
23
.8%
7.0
%
38
.9%
4.1
%
51
.2%
52.2%
31
.9%
10
.2% 15
.6%
16
.6%
6.8%
7.7% 8.9
%
37
.5%
10
.3%
49
.1%
13.2%
54.8%
17
.9%
39.3%
50.6%
16
.6%
12.5%
30.1%
58.0%
23.9%
Central North East West South
SUPPORT FOR CANDIDATES BY REGION
46
Dr. Abd
ulla
h Abd
ulla
h
Moh
amm
ad A
shra
f Gha
ni A
hmad
zai
Abdul
Qay
um K
arza
i
Profe
ssor
Abd
ul R
ab R
asul
Say
yaf
Zalm
ai R
asou
l
Moh
amm
ad S
hafiq
Gul
Agh
a She
rzai
Abdul
Rah
im W
arda
k
Moh
amm
ad N
adir
Naiem
Engin
eer Q
otbu
ddin
Hel
al
Moh
amm
ad D
awoo
d Sol
tanz
oi
Heday
at A
min
Ars
ala
31.5%
25.5%
13.2%
10.2%
5.4% 5.3%
1.4% 1.2% 1.2% .8% .4%
IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, WHOM WOULD YOU CAST YOUR VOTE FOR?
47
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzai
Professor Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf
Abdul Qayum Karzai
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
1.6%
8.9%
6.5%
20.3%
45.4%
1.2%
5.2%
10.2%
30.6%
38.2%
4.6%
6.3%
19.4%
43.5%
10.9%
1.3%
35.1%
14.4%
10.9%
33.7%
22.9%
1.9%
20.9%
18.0%
18.8%
South West East North Central
Hedayat Amin Arsala
Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi
Mohammad Nadir Naiem
Engineer Qotbuddin Helal
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Zalmai Rasoul
.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
.2%
.6%
.9%
1.1%
3.1%
3.7%
0.3%
1.1%
0.9%
0.1%
0.8%
8.7%
0.0%
0.0%
2.9%
5.2%
0.2%
2.5%
.8%
.5%
.7%
.0%
.5%
1.8%
0.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.0%
2.3%
8.0%
CANDIDATE PREFERENCE BY REGION
48
Enayatullah Enayat (Engineer Qotbuddin Helal)
General Khodaidad (Hedayat Amin Arsala)
Mohammad Khan (Dr. Abdullah Abdullah)
Taj Mohammad Akbar (Mohammad Nadir Naiem)
Shah Abdul Ahad Afzali (Abdul Rahim Wardak)
Sayed Hussain Alemi Balkhi (Gul Agha Sherzai)
Ahmad Saeedi (Moh. Dawood Soltanzoi)
Wahidullah Sharani (Abdul Qayum Karzai)
Ahmad Zia Masood (Zalmai Rasoul)
Abdul Rashid Dustom (Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai)
Mohammad Ismail Khan (Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf)
65%
62%
52%
52%
51%
49%
43%
40%
35%
33%
25%
28%
38%
30%
21%
28%
31%
26%
28%
31%
25%
26%
7%
12%
24%
9%
17%
15%
20%
20%
38%
45%
Not at all To some level Very much
HOW MUCH DOES THE INCLUSION OF FIRST VP ON THE TICKET INFLUENCE YOUR DECISION
49
General Khodaidad (Hedayat Amin Arsala)
Ahmad Zia Masood (Zalmai Rasoul)
Ahmad Saeedi (Moh. Dawood Soltanzoi)
Mohammad Khan (Dr. Abdullah Abdullah)
Shah Abdul Ahad Afzali (Abdul Rahim Wardak)
Enayatullah Enayat (Engineer Qotbuddin Helal)
Wahidullah Sharani (Abdul Qayum Karzai)
Taj Mohammad Akbar (Mohammad Nadir Naiem)
Abdul Rashid Dustom (Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai)
Sayed Hussain Alemi Balkhi (Gul Agha Sherzai)
Mohammad Ismail Khan (Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf)
100%
82%
74%
88%
86%
86%
75%
86%
68%
66%
58%
3%
5%
8%
9%
11%
12%
14%
28%
29%
36%
No Yes
IF THE FIRST VP LEAVES THE TICKET WOULD YOU STILL VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE?
50
Mohammad Ali Nabizadah (Engineer Qotbuddin Helal)
Mohammad Hashem Zareh (Gul Agha Sherzai)
Safiya Seddiqi (Hedayat Amin Arsala)
Azizullah Puya (Mohammad Nadir Naiem)
Sayed Hussain Anwari (Abdul Rahim Wardak)
Mohammad Mohaqiq (Dr. Abdullah Abdullah)
Mohammad Noor Akbari (Abdul Qayum Karzai)
Mohammad Sarwar Danish (Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai)
Abdul Wahab Erfan (Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf)
Habiba Sarabi (Zalmai Rasoul)
Kazima Mohaqiq (Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi)
61%
51%
50%
49%
45%
41%
40%
34%
31%
29%
27%
28%
32%
38%
20%
26%
29%
28%
46%
50%
25%
37%
11%
14%
12%
23%
15%
25%
20%
16%
12%
39%
15%
Not at all To some level Very much
HOW MUCH DOES THE INCLUSION OF THE SECOND VP INFLUENCE YOUR PREFERENCE FOR THIS TICKET
51
Safiya Seddiqi (Hedayat Amin Arsala)
Abdul Wahab Erfan (Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf)
Mohammad Ali Nabizadah (Engineer Qotbuddin Helal)
Sayed Hussain Anwari (Abdul Rahim Wardak)
Kazima Mohaqiq (Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi)
Mohammad Noor Akbari (Abdul Qayum Karzai)
Mohammad Mohaqiq (Dr. Abdullah Abdullah)
Mohammad Sarwar Danish (Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai)
Azizullah Puya (Mohammad Nadir Naiem)
Habiba Sarabi (Zalmai Rasoul)
Mohammad Hashem Zareh (Gul Agha Sherzai)
78%
90%
89%
83%
74%
77%
82%
80%
80%
66%
69%
4%
7%
8%
10%
11%
15%
15%
17%
25%
26%
No Yes
IF THE SECOND VP LEAVES THE TICKET WOULD YOU STILL VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE?
52
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%33.4%
25.2%
20.3%
10.2%
2.5% 3.9% 2.9%0.9%
30.0%
23.2%18.8%
6.8% 6.4% 6.5%4.4%
2.9%
28.4% 24.7%29.1%
5.0%1.7% 1.4%
2.8% 3.2%
20.0%
33.4%
13.5%
3.6%
9.4%6.1%
3.4%
8.0%
29.6%24.3%
23.9%
6.7%5.5% 5.1%
3.5%1.3%
Central North East West South
29%26%
21%
7% 5% 5% 4% 3%
THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE THE ELECTED PRESIDENT SHOULD FOCUS ON BY REGION
53
No19%
Yes53%
Don't Know28%
No Yes Don't Know
WILL ANY ONE CANDIDATE GET ENOUGH VOTES IN THE FIRST ROUND TO AVOID A RUN-OFF ELECTION?
54
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah - Professor Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf
Abdul Qayum Karzai - Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah - Abdul Qayum Karzai
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah - Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
8.4%
9.3%
11%
27.4%
LIKELY CONTENDERS IN THE RUN-OFF
55
No8%
Yes78%
Don't Know14%
No Yes Don't Know
AFGHAN DIASPORA AND VOTING IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS
56
Hedayat Amin Arsala
Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi
Engineer Qotbuddin Helal
Mohammad Nadir Naiem
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzai
Zalmai Rasoul
Professor Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf
Abdul Qayum Karzai
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
.3%
.6%
.7%
1.1%
1.6%
5.1%
5.9%
11.0%
16.7%
27.4%
29.5%
WHO WILL BE PRESIDENT ONE YEAR FROM TODAY?
57Hedayat Amin Arsala
Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi
Mohammad Nadir Naiem
Engineer Qotbuddin Helal
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Zalmai Rasoul
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzai
Professor Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf
Abdul Qayum Karzai
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
.4%
.7%
.8%
1.0%
1.3%
5.4%
5.7%
10.3%
13.2%
28.2%
32.9%
WHICH CANDIDATE BEST REPRESENTS YOUR ECONOMIC INTERESTS?
DEMOGRAPHICS
58
59
18 - 25
35%
26 - 3524%
36 - 45
17%
46 - 5513%
55+10%
18 - 25 26 - 35 36 - 45 46 - 55 55+
Male51%
Fe-male49%
Male Female
GENDER AND AGE
60
40%
10% 9% 7% 9%18%
6%
3,000 AFG or less
3,001 - 5,000 AFG
5,001 - 10,000 AFG
10,001 - 15,000 AFG
More than 15,000 AFG
14%
22%
30%
20%
14%
HOUSEHOLD MONTHLY INCOME AND EDUCATION LEVEL