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PUBLIC OPINION POLL “Perceptions of Ugandans towards socio-economic and political issues in the country” Presentation By: RESEARCH WORLD INTERNATIONAL LTD P.O. BOX 34148, KAMPALA, UGANDA. April 2019

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Page 1: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

PUBLIC OPINION POLL

“Perceptions of Ugandans towards socio-economic and

political issues in the country”

Presentation By:

RESEARCH WORLD INTERNATIONAL LTD

P.O. BOX 34148, KAMPALA, UGANDA.

April – 2019

Page 2: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

RWI, in the interest of public information mobilized resources and conducted a national representative public opinion poll with the aim of gauging the opinions and perceptions of voting-age Ugandans towards the Social economic and Political climate in Uganda.

Field work was conducted between 12th April 2019 to 25th April 2019 across Uganda.

Field work was done in 60 districts in Uganda with a total sample of 2,042 respondents of 18 Yrs and above.

Results are given with a +/- 0.05 margin of error with 95% confidence levelThis report provides for regional, age group specific, gender, and in some

cases political affiliations.Further analysis by religion, ethnicity can be availed on request from the

RWI team

2

BACKGROUND

Page 3: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

What's a public opinion poll?

Public opinion poll is a type of survey or inquiry designed to measure the public's views regarding particular topics or series of topics and the respondents are randomly chosen from the population being measured.

Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue under public debate. Opinion poll therefore make a significant contribution in providing an understanding of public opinion by revealing key drivers behind their opinion and attitudes and the likely choices.

It is important to note that opinions shift.

3

OPINION POLLs

Page 4: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

From our experience, we realize that the process of opinion polling often appears mysterious, particularly to those who don't see how the views of few people can represent those of hundreds of millions.

Many people will ask;How the poll results can differ so much from their own personal

impressions of what people think;How did the poll star (RWI) selects people for inclusion in its pollsHow come they have never been interviewed?

The public's questions indicate a sincere desire to find out more about how polling is conducted, which becomes a vital area for consideration at the point of dissemination of results to enhance understanding and believability. This shows that the process of conducting the polls is as good as the results themselves.

4

Methodological Challenges in Conducting Polls

Page 5: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

The strategic purpose of the survey was to

measure public opinions and perceptions on the

social economic and political aspects in Uganda”

5

Strategic objective

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The specific objectives of the poll were;

To gauge peoples’ perception about the economic situation of the country

To gauge peoples’ views about governance To gauge peoples’ views about elections and voting

intentions

To gauge peoples’ views about multy-party selection

Objectives of the public opinion poll

Page 7: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Study Nation wide Public opinion poll

Study approach Quantitative

Data Collection Technique Face-to-face interviews

Instrument Structured questionnaire – Using Android Tabs

Target respondents

Gender Female & male

Age Ugandan Nationals 18+ years

Total sample size 2,042 face-to-face interviews

Scope Fieldwork conducted in 60 Districts in Uganda

Sampling A multi-stage stratified random sampling design

Methodology

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The country was stratified into 4 broad regions

UBOS Data was used to identify the Proportions of the samples / population with in each regions

Counties, Sub-counties and Parishes were randomly selected from each district. 204 Sub counties were sampled

With in each parish a village was randomly selected and 10 interviews conducted. 204 Parishes were sampled

9

Multi stage Stratified Sampling

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DISTRICTS COVERED

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Data Collection Steps (Step 1-4)

Step 1: At each sampling point, enumerators picked recognizablelandmarks, such as a trading centre, school or mosque, as the startingpoint of the survey.

Step 2: At the point the enumerators selected one household and thenpicked one adult aged 18 years and above to interview using the Kishgrid

Step 3: The enumerators sought informed consent and asked therespondents to sign the inform consent form - if they agreed toparticipate in the study.

Step 4: After the consenting process, the enumerators thanked therespondents who refused to participate and left the household butdocumented that.

Page 13: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

Data Collection Steps (Step 5-7)

Step 3: The enumerators then skips 5 households and considered the next for the interview. In metropolitan settings like Kololo, the enumerators went from gate to gate until when they got a respondent.

Step 4:The enumerators maintained the left hand side until they reached the end of the sampled area. They did not come back to the starting point unless they were using the opposite side of where they started.

Step 6: The enumerators did this up to when they had all the required interviews from each of the catchment area.

Step 7: All enumerators observed all the ethical norms i.e. honesty, objectivity, legality, human subjects’ protection, carefulness and confidentiality among others.

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Demographics 1/2

Male Female Rural Urban Central Western Eastern Northern Kampala 18 – 29 Yrs 30 – 39 Yrs 40-49 Yrs 50-59 Yrs 60+ Years

Gender Rural vs Urban Region Age bands

49%51%

65%

35%

29%

23% 22%

19%

8%

33%

28%

19%

11%9%

Base (N=2042)

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Dem

ograp

hics 1

/2

Married

Single

Cohabiting

Widowed

Divorced/ separated

Doctorate

Masters/Postgraduate Degree

Bachelor’s degree

Certification of trade/craft

Diploma

Completed Secondary education

Part secondary education

Primary education completed

Some primary education

Never gone to school

Marital statu

sH

ighest Level o

f Edu

cation

57

%

19

%1

7%

4%

3%

0.1

%0

.5%

5%

5%

7%

11

%

23

%

14

%

24

%

10

%

Ba

se (N

=2

04

2)

Page 17: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Employment status of votersWhat is your current employment status?

Overall (2042) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

60%62%

65%

54%

47%

66%

18%

11%13%

15%

39%

13%12%

16%

9%

17%

7%9%

7% 8% 8%11%

5%7%

2% 2% 2% 2% 2%4%

1% 0%2%

1% 1% 0%

Self-employed Not employed Full time formal employment Part time employment Student No comment

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National IdentificationDo you have a National Identity Card?

90%87%

94%

75%

92% 92%88%

91% 91%88%

Overall(2042)

Central(586)

Eastern(452)

Kampala(155)

Northern(387)

Western(462)

Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female(1043)

Region Setting Gender

Yes

Yes90%

No10%

Do you have a National ID? (N=2042)

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Why don’t you have a National ID?Why don’t you have a National ID?

46%

33%

16%

2%

2%

It has not come out yet

It got lost

Never registered

Was under age

It had errors and i took it back

Page 21: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Did you vote in the 2016 elections?9.Did you vote in the 2016 elections?

Male(999)

Female(1043)

Urban(709)

Rural(1333)

Central(586)

Eastern(452)

Kampala(155)

Northern(387)

Western(462)

Overall(2042)

18 – 29 Yrs (683)

30 – 39 Yrs (569)

40-49 Yrs(388)

50-59 Yrs(227)

60+ Yrs(175)

Overall(2042)

Gender Setting Region Age

80%84%

76%73%

83%

75%

85%

61%

84% 84%80%

63%

85%

91%94%

86%

Page 22: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Why didn't you vote in 2016?Qn10.Why didn't you vote in 2016?

31%

27%

25%

22%

3%

2%

2%

1%

I did not have time to vote

Elections are not credible

Í was under voting age

I had not registered to vote

I could not find the polling station

I did not vote because my name was missing in the voters register

I was prevented from voting

I don’t know/can't remember

Base = 407

Page 23: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Status of the current direction of UgandaLets start with the general view about the current direction of our country. Some people think that our country is going in the wrong direction. Others think it’s going in the right direction. So let me ask YOU about the overall direction of the country: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?

Going in the wrong direction, 60%

Going in the right direction, 32%

Don’t know, 6%No comment, 2%

Going in the wrong direction

Going in the right direction

Don’t knowNo comment

Page 25: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Status of the current direction of UgandaLets start with the general view about the current direction of our country. Some people think that our country is going in the wrong direction. Others think it’s going in the right direction. So let me ask YOU about the overall direction of the country: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?

NRM Supporter (731) Independent (780) Refused to answer (153) Combined opposition parties(378)

Overall (2042) Political Side

60%

42%

65%62%

82%

32%

52%

25%

18%14%

6% 5% 7% 8%3%2% 1% 3%

12%

1%

Going in the wrong direction Going in the right direction Don’t know No comment

Only 32% of Ugandans Believe that their country is heading in the right directions. Half of NRM supporters believe that the country is going in the right direction

Page 26: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Status of the current direction of Uganda (Cont…)Lets start with the general view about the current direction of our country. Some people think that our country is going in the wrong direction. Others think it’s going in the right direction. So let me ask YOU about the overall direction of the country: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?

Overall (2042) Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

Setting Gender Region

60%62%

59%61% 59%

65%67% 68%

55%

49%

32%29%

34% 33%31%

27% 27%

23%

39%42%

6% 6% 5% 4%7%

5%4% 5% 5%

8%

2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%5%

1% 2%

Going in the wrong direction Going in the right direction Don’t know No comment

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Status of the current direction of Uganda (Cont…)Lets start with the general view about the current direction of our country. Some people think that our country is going in the wrong direction. Others think it’s going in the right direction. So let me ask YOU about the overall direction of the country: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?

Overall 18 – 29 Yrs (683) 30 – 39 Yrs (569) 40-49 Yrs (388) 50-59 Yrs (227) 60+ Yrs (175)

Overall (2042) Age Brackets

60%62% 63%

58%56%

53%

32%29% 29%

37% 36% 36%

6% 6% 6%3%

6%9%

2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3%

Going in the wrong direction Going in the right direction Don’t know No comment

Page 28: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Describing Uganda’s current Economic conditionsQn12a. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very bad, and 5 is very good, in general,

how would you describe the present economic condition of this country?

Overall (2042) NRM Supporters (731) Independent (780) Refused to answer (151) Combined opposition parties(380)

Political Side

42%

34%

43%40%

55%

25%23%

27% 27%24%

10% 9%12% 12%

7%

20%

28%

16% 16%

12%

2%5%

1% 1% 1%1% 1% 1%4%

0.3%

Very bad Bad Neither good nor bad Good Very Good Don’t know

33%

22%

17% 17%13%

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Describing Uganda’s current Economic conditionsQn12a. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very bad, and 5 is very good, in general,

how would you describe the present economic condition of this country?

Overall (2042) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

Region

42%

46%

40% 40%

44%

36%

25%27%

31%

23% 22% 21%

10%11%

7%

14%

8%

11%

20%

15%

18%21%

23%24%

2%1%

2% 1% 2%

5%

1% 0% 1%2%

1%3%

Very bad Bad Neither good nor bad Good Very Good Don’t know

22%

16%

22%

31%

Page 30: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Describing Uganda’s Economic conditions 12 months ago13.On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is much worse and 5 is much better, looking back,

how do you rate economic conditions in this country compared to 12 months ago

Much worse24%

Worse35%

Same23%

Better14%

Much better2%

Don’t know1%

Overall (2042)

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Describing Uganda’s Economic conditions 12 months ago13.On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is much worse and 5 is much better, looking back,

how do you rate economic conditions in this country compared to 12 months ago

Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

Overall (2042) Region

24% 24%27%

31%

20% 20%

35%

38% 38%

31%

42%

26%

23%21%

19%18%

21%

32%

14% 15%13% 13%

14%16%

2%1%

2%

5%

2%

4%

1% 1% 1% 2% 1%2%

Much worse Worse Same Better Much better Don’t know

59%62% 65%

61%

62%

46%

Page 32: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Describing people’s living conditions12b. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very bad, and 5 is very good, in general, how

would you describe your own present living condition?

Very bad Bad Neither good norbad

Good Very Good

31%

27%

13%

26%

2%

Overall (2042)28%

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Describing people’s living conditions12b. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very bad, and 5 is very good, in general, how

would you describe your own present living condition?

Overall (2042) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

Region

31%

34%33%

24%

35%

27%27%

22%

33%

26%

31%

26%

13%15%

6%

15%

10%

17%

26%28%

26%

32%

22%

25%

2%1% 2% 2% 2%

4%

Very bad Bad Neither good nor bad Good Very Good

28%29%

28%

34%

24%

28%

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Political party affiliation15. Are you are a member to any political party?

Yes56%

No38%

Refused to disclose6%

(N=2042)

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Political party affiliation15. Are you a member to any political party?

Central (574) Eastern (440) Kampala (130) Northern (378) Western (457)

Overall (2042) Region

56%

43%

65%

43%

60%63%

38%

52%

28%

55%

32%30%

6% 6% 7%

2%

7% 6%

Yes No Refused to disclose

Political affiliation lowest in Central and Kampala

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Political party affiliation15. Are you a member to any political party?

Overall (2042) Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043) 18 – 29 Yrs (683)

30 – 39 Yrs (569)

40-49 Yrs (388) 50-59 Yrs (227) 60+ Yrs (175)

Setting Gender Age bands

56%

48%

60% 60%

52%49%

53%

64% 63%61%

38%

46%

34% 35%

42% 43% 42%

31% 31% 31%

6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7%5% 5%

7%9%

Yes No Refused to disclose

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Which political party are you member to?16. Which political party are you member to

64%

18%

10%

2%

2%

2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

NRM

FDC

People Power

UPC

Democratic Party (DP)

Refused to disclose

Go Forward

New Formation/Alliance for National Transformation

The Justice Forum (JEEMA)

The People`s Development Party (PDP)(n=1137)

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Which political party are you member to?16. Which political party are you member to

OverallSetting Gender Region

Urban Rural Male Female Central Eastern Kampala Northern Western

Base 1137 342 795 598 539 250 295 66 234 292

NRM 64% 58% 67% 63% 65% 47% 67% 39% 73% 75%

FDC 18% 19% 17% 19% 16% 18% 22% 18% 11% 18%

People Power 10% 13% 9% 10% 11% 23% 7% 32% 3% 4%

UPC 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 1% 1% 9%

Democratic Party (DP) 2% 5% 1% 3% 1% 6% 0% 9% 1% 1%

Go Forward 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

New Formation/Alliance for National Transformation

0% 0% 0% 0%

The Justice Forum (JEEMA) 0% 0% 0% 0%

The People`s Development Party (PDP)

0% 0% 0% 0%

Refused to disclose 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2%

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Having a party membership cardQn17. Do you have a membership card for that party?

Yes55%

No45%

Do you have a membership

card for that party? (n=1137)

Central(249)

Eastern(293)

Kampala(66)

Northern(233)

Western(292)

Urban(340)

Rural (793) Male (595) Female(538)

Overall(1137)

Region Setting Gender

55%

36%

65%

27%

60%

65%

46%

59%61%

49%

Yes

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How did you get the membership card?18.How did you get the membership card?

94%

6%

18. How did you get the

membership card? (n=628)

Was given free I bought it

Overall(628)

Urban(158)

Rural (470) Male (363) Female(265)

Central(90)

Eastern(191)

Kampala(18)

Northern(140)

Western(189)

Setting Gender Region

93%93%

93%

92%

95%

93%

94%

89%

91%

94%

Was given free

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How did you get the membership card? (By party affiliation)18.How did you get the membership card?

94%

6%

(n=628)

Was given free I bought it

NRM Supporters (508) Combined opposition parties (120)

Political side

98%

75%

2%

23%

Was given free I bought it

Page 43: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

43

Respondents’ views on age limit removal25.Some people think that Presidential age limit was important, and therefore removing it was bad, while other people supported the

idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?

It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment

28%

65%

4% 3%

It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment

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Respondents’ views on age limit removal25.Some people think that Presidential age limit was important, and therefore removing it was bad, while other people supported the

idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?

NRMSupporters

(731)

Independent(780)

Refused toanswer (151)

Combinedopposition

parties (380)

Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

Overall (2042) Political Side Region

28%

52%

17%13%

10%

20%25% 24%

38%35%

65%

43%

74%

61%

88%

74%

67%70%

57% 56%

4% 3%6%

11%

1% 2%5% 5%

3%7%

3% 2% 3%

14%

1%4% 4%

1% 3% 3%

It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment

Page 45: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Respondents’ views on age limit removal25.Some people think that Presidential age limit was important, and therefore removing it was bad, while other people supported the

idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?

Overall (2042) Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043) 18 – 29 Yrs (683)

30 – 39 Yrs (569)

40-49 Yrs (388) 50-59 Yrs (227) 60+ Yrs (175)

Setting Gender Age bands

28%

25%

29%27% 28%

25% 24%

31%34% 34%

65%67%

63%67%

62%66%

69%

62%59%

55%

4% 4% 4% 3%5% 5% 4% 4% 3%

5%3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2%

4%6%

It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment

Page 46: PUBLIC OPINION POLL - researchworldint.net · Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue

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Respondents’ views on age limit removal25.Some people think that Presidential age limit was important, and therefore removing it was bad, while other people supported the

idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?

Nev

er g

on

e to

sch

oo

l (2

06

)

Som

e p

rim

ary

edu

cati

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(49

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Pri

mar

yed

uca

tio

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mp

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d (

294

)

Par

t se

con

dar

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uca

tio

n (

469

)

Co

mp

lete

dSe

con

dar

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uca

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n (

228

)

Dip

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a (1

34

)

Cer

tifi

cati

on

of

trad

e/cr

aft

(98

)

Bach

elor

’s de

gree

(1

05

)

Mas

ters

/Po

stgr

adu

ate

Deg

ree

(10)

Do

cto

rate

(2

)

28%34% 33%

30% 29%

23%19%

16% 17%

10%

0%

65%

53%57%

64% 65%70%

75%81% 79% 80%

100%

4%8% 6% 5% 3% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%

3% 5% 4%2% 3% 4% 4%

1%4%

10%

0%

It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment

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47

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48

Participating in the 2021 Elections24.Will you personally participate in an election in 2021?

86%

6% 8%

N= 2042

Yes No I don’t know

Overall (2042) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

85%

80%

88%

77%

90%88%

7%9%

5%

13%

4% 5%8%

10%6%

10%5%

7%

Yes No I don’t know

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49

Should Opposition front one joint presidential candidate21. Do you support the idea that the opposition should front one joint presidential

candidate?

39%

38%

15%8%

(N=2042)

Yes No Don't know No Comment

Urban (709) Rural (1333) NRMSupporter

(731)

Independent(780)

Refused toanswer (153)

Combinedopposition

parties (378)

Overall (2042) Setting Political Side

39%

44%

36%

25%

38%

33%

69%

38%36%

39%

50%

36%

19%

25%

15%13%

16%19%

15%

25%

4%

8% 8% 8%5%

11%

22%

2%

Yes No Don't know No Comment

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50

Who should be the joint opposition presidential candidate? 22. If yes, who should be the joint opposition presidential candidate?

RobertKyagulanyi

Dr. KiizaBesigye

NorbertMao

MugishaMuntu

Olara Otunu JimmyAkena

AmamaMbabazi

AbedBwanika

Patrick OboiAmuriat

Undecided Nocomment

42%

24%

5%3%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

11%9%

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51

Support for the idea that the opposition should front one joint presidential candidate

22. If yes, who should be the joint opposition presidential candidate?

Ov

era

ll

Political Side Region Setting Gender

NR

M

Su

pp

ort

er

Ind

ep

en

de

nt

Re

fuse

d t

o

an

swe

r

Co

mb

ine

d

op

po

siti

on

pa

rtie

s

Ce

ntr

al

Ea

ste

rn

Ka

mp

ala

No

rth

ern

We

ste

rn

Urb

an

Ru

ral

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Base 795 186 297 51 261 240 154 85 145 171 313 482 411 384

Robert Kyagulanyi 42% 30% 40% 45% 53% 53% 44% 59% 28% 31% 46% 40% 43% 41%

Dr. Kiiza Besigye 24% 25% 21% 12% 28% 18% 27% 14% 20% 38% 22% 25% 25% 23%

Norbert Mao 5% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4% 1% 19% 2% 3% 7% 5% 5%

Mugisha Muntu 3% 5% 4% 6% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 8% 4% 3% 4% 2%

Olara Otunu 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Jimmy Akena 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 6% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Amama Mbabazi 1% 2% 1% 6% 0% 1% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%

Abed Bwanika 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Patrick Oboi Amuriat 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%

Undecided 11% 11% 13% 16% 8% 12% 14% 18% 6% 8% 11% 11% 9% 13%

No comment 9% 18% 11% 10% 2% 8% 10% 8% 10% 11% 11% 9% 9% 10%

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52

Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?

Yes No I don’t know No comment

33%

47%

15%

5%

(N=2042)

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53

Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?

Overall (2042) NRM Supporter(731)

Independent(780)

Refused toanswer (153)

Combinedopposition

parties (378)

Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

Political Side Region

33%

39%

29%

25%

34%

28%26%

35%

42%

37%

47%45%

50%

30%

49%48%

57%

50%

42%

37%

15%14%

16%

25%

13%15%

13%10%

12%

22%

5%2%

6%

20%

3%

9%

4% 5% 4% 3%

Yes No I don’t know No comment

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54

Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?

Overall (2042) Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043)

Setting Gender

33%33% 33% 32% 33%

47%

43%

48% 48%

45%

15%17%

14% 14%

17%

5%7%

4%6% 5%

Yes No I don’t know No comment

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55

Reasons for voting / not voting current MP back to

Parliament

My MP is of opposition

My MP is of NRM

He is corrupt

My MP is now old

He is not a good leader

Betrayed his people by supported age limit…

He is not developmental at all

Does not fulfill his compaign promises

He has done nothing visible in our constuency

Represents someone else not us

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

5%

7%

10%

72%

No (n=951)

He is my party member

Young and patriotic

He cares about his people living in theconstituency

He is a good leader

He has done great things in our area(extending electricity lines, repairing

boreholes, etc)

Fulfills his compaign promises

1%

4%

5%

10%

15%

66%

Yes (n=673)

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56

Views on whether President Museveni should / should

not contesting again in 202131.Some people support the idea that President Museveni should contest again in 2021 others say he shouldn’t. What is your view?

54%38%

4%4%

(N=2042)

He shouldn't contest He should contest I don’t know No comment

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57

Views on whether President Museveni should / should not contesting again in 2021

31.Some people support the idea that President Museveni should

contest again in 2021 others say he shouldn't; What is your view?

Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043)

Overall (2042) Setting Gender

54%58%

52%

57%

51%

38%

32%

41%

37%39%

4% 5% 4% 3% 5%4% 5% 3% 3%5%

He shouldn't contest He should contest I don’t know No comment

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58

Views on whether President Museveni should / should not contesting again in 2021

31.Some people support the idea that President Museveni should

contest again in 2021 others say he shouldn't; What is your view?

NRM Supporter(731)

Independent(780)

Refused toanswer (153)

Combinedopposition

parties (378)

Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

Overall (2042) Political Side Region

54%

27%

63%

51%

88%

65%

55%

61%

46% 44%

38%

68%

27%

18%

10%

27%

37%

30%

47%50%

4% 2%6%

15%

1%3%

6%2% 4% 5%4% 2% 4%

16%

1%6%

2%

8%4% 2%

He shouldn't contest He should contest I don’t know No comment

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59

Best to replacement for President Musevenias a chairman and leader of NRM

If President Museveni was to retire, which NRM leader would be best

to replace him as a chairman and leader of NRM?

RebeccaKadaga

RuhakanaRugunda

MuhooziKainerugaba

Salim Saleh John PatrickAmamaMbabazi

KatumbaWamala

SsekandiEdward

JanetMuseveni

JacobOulanyah

MosesKigongo

None of theabove

15%

11%10%

6%3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0.4%

50%

If President Museveni was to retire, which NRM leader would be best to replace him as a chairman and leader of NRM?

(Only NRM supporters)

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60

What if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for?

34.What if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow, who

would you vote for? SINGLE CHOICE

YoweriMuseveni

RobertKyagulanyi(Bobi Wine)

KizzaBesigye

KadagaRebeca

Nobert Mao JimmyAkena

MugishaMuntu

MuhooziKainerugaba

AmamaMbabazi

JanatMuseveni

BasalirwaMuhammad

Declined tomention

Undecided

32%

22%

13%

2% 2% 2% 2%1% 1% 0.2% 0.1%

4%

20%

(N=2042)

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61

What if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for?

34.What if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for? SINGLE CHOICE

Ov

era

ll

Region Setting Gender

Central Eastern Kampala Northern Western Urban Rural Male Female

Base 2042 586 452 155 387 462 709 1333 999 1043

Yoweri Museveni 32% 19% 32% 22% 39% 47% 28% 35% 32% 33%

Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) 22% 33% 19% 35% 13% 13% 26% 20% 23% 21%

Kizza Besigye 13% 12% 12% 10% 11% 19% 14% 13% 14% 13%

Kadaga Rebeca 2% 2% 7% 3% 1% 0% 2% 3% 3% 2%

Nobert Mao 2% 2% 1% 8% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Jimmy Akena 2% 0% 1% 7% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Mugisha Muntu 2% 3% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1%

Muhoozi Kainerugaba 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Amama Mbabazi 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0.1% 1% 0% 1%

Janat Museveni 0.2% 2% 0% 0.4% 0.1% 0% 0%

Basalirwa Muhammad 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

Undecided 20% 22% 23% 24% 17% 13% 20% 19% 18% 21%

Declined to mention 4% 7% 4% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3%

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62

How much do you trust the electoral commission to conduct a free and fair election?

35.How much do you trust the electoral commission to conduct a free and fair election?

I trust it very much I don't trust it at all I do trust it alittle No comment

28%

47%

15%

10%

(N=2042)

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63

How much do you trust the electoral commission to conduct a free and fair election?

35.How much do you trust the electoral commission to conduct a free and fair election?

NRMSupporters

(731)

Independent(780)

Refused toanswer (151)

Combinedopposition

parties (380)

Overall (2042) Political Side

28%

55%

16%12%

8%

47%

25%

57%

44%

68%

15%13% 15%

12%

21%

10%7%

12%

31%

3%

I trust it very much I don't trust it at all

Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)

Region

19%

27%

17%

38% 38%

60%

46%45%

41%

35%

11%

17%

30%

11%

17%

10% 10%8%

10% 10%

I trust it very much I don't trust it at all

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