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PUBLIC OPINION POLL
“Perceptions of Ugandans towards socio-economic and
political issues in the country”
Presentation By:
RESEARCH WORLD INTERNATIONAL LTD
P.O. BOX 34148, KAMPALA, UGANDA.
April – 2019
RWI, in the interest of public information mobilized resources and conducted a national representative public opinion poll with the aim of gauging the opinions and perceptions of voting-age Ugandans towards the Social economic and Political climate in Uganda.
Field work was conducted between 12th April 2019 to 25th April 2019 across Uganda.
Field work was done in 60 districts in Uganda with a total sample of 2,042 respondents of 18 Yrs and above.
Results are given with a +/- 0.05 margin of error with 95% confidence levelThis report provides for regional, age group specific, gender, and in some
cases political affiliations.Further analysis by religion, ethnicity can be availed on request from the
RWI team
2
BACKGROUND
What's a public opinion poll?
Public opinion poll is a type of survey or inquiry designed to measure the public's views regarding particular topics or series of topics and the respondents are randomly chosen from the population being measured.
Opinion polls can indeed guide in directing the discussions around governance, democracy, election related issues and any other issue under public debate. Opinion poll therefore make a significant contribution in providing an understanding of public opinion by revealing key drivers behind their opinion and attitudes and the likely choices.
It is important to note that opinions shift.
3
OPINION POLLs
From our experience, we realize that the process of opinion polling often appears mysterious, particularly to those who don't see how the views of few people can represent those of hundreds of millions.
Many people will ask;How the poll results can differ so much from their own personal
impressions of what people think;How did the poll star (RWI) selects people for inclusion in its pollsHow come they have never been interviewed?
The public's questions indicate a sincere desire to find out more about how polling is conducted, which becomes a vital area for consideration at the point of dissemination of results to enhance understanding and believability. This shows that the process of conducting the polls is as good as the results themselves.
4
Methodological Challenges in Conducting Polls
The strategic purpose of the survey was to
measure public opinions and perceptions on the
social economic and political aspects in Uganda”
5
Strategic objective
The specific objectives of the poll were;
To gauge peoples’ perception about the economic situation of the country
To gauge peoples’ views about governance To gauge peoples’ views about elections and voting
intentions
To gauge peoples’ views about multy-party selection
Objectives of the public opinion poll
7
Study Nation wide Public opinion poll
Study approach Quantitative
Data Collection Technique Face-to-face interviews
Instrument Structured questionnaire – Using Android Tabs
Target respondents
Gender Female & male
Age Ugandan Nationals 18+ years
Total sample size 2,042 face-to-face interviews
Scope Fieldwork conducted in 60 Districts in Uganda
Sampling A multi-stage stratified random sampling design
Methodology
The country was stratified into 4 broad regions
UBOS Data was used to identify the Proportions of the samples / population with in each regions
Counties, Sub-counties and Parishes were randomly selected from each district. 204 Sub counties were sampled
With in each parish a village was randomly selected and 10 interviews conducted. 204 Parishes were sampled
9
Multi stage Stratified Sampling
DISTRICTS COVERED
11
Data Collection Steps (Step 1-4)
Step 1: At each sampling point, enumerators picked recognizablelandmarks, such as a trading centre, school or mosque, as the startingpoint of the survey.
Step 2: At the point the enumerators selected one household and thenpicked one adult aged 18 years and above to interview using the Kishgrid
Step 3: The enumerators sought informed consent and asked therespondents to sign the inform consent form - if they agreed toparticipate in the study.
Step 4: After the consenting process, the enumerators thanked therespondents who refused to participate and left the household butdocumented that.
Data Collection Steps (Step 5-7)
Step 3: The enumerators then skips 5 households and considered the next for the interview. In metropolitan settings like Kololo, the enumerators went from gate to gate until when they got a respondent.
Step 4:The enumerators maintained the left hand side until they reached the end of the sampled area. They did not come back to the starting point unless they were using the opposite side of where they started.
Step 6: The enumerators did this up to when they had all the required interviews from each of the catchment area.
Step 7: All enumerators observed all the ethical norms i.e. honesty, objectivity, legality, human subjects’ protection, carefulness and confidentiality among others.
14
15
Demographics 1/2
Male Female Rural Urban Central Western Eastern Northern Kampala 18 – 29 Yrs 30 – 39 Yrs 40-49 Yrs 50-59 Yrs 60+ Years
Gender Rural vs Urban Region Age bands
49%51%
65%
35%
29%
23% 22%
19%
8%
33%
28%
19%
11%9%
Base (N=2042)
16
Dem
ograp
hics 1
/2
Married
Single
Cohabiting
Widowed
Divorced/ separated
Doctorate
Masters/Postgraduate Degree
Bachelor’s degree
Certification of trade/craft
Diploma
Completed Secondary education
Part secondary education
Primary education completed
Some primary education
Never gone to school
Marital statu
sH
ighest Level o
f Edu
cation
57
%
19
%1
7%
4%
3%
0.1
%0
.5%
5%
5%
7%
11
%
23
%
14
%
24
%
10
%
Ba
se (N
=2
04
2)
17
Employment status of votersWhat is your current employment status?
Overall (2042) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
60%62%
65%
54%
47%
66%
18%
11%13%
15%
39%
13%12%
16%
9%
17%
7%9%
7% 8% 8%11%
5%7%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%4%
1% 0%2%
1% 1% 0%
Self-employed Not employed Full time formal employment Part time employment Student No comment
18
19
National IdentificationDo you have a National Identity Card?
90%87%
94%
75%
92% 92%88%
91% 91%88%
Overall(2042)
Central(586)
Eastern(452)
Kampala(155)
Northern(387)
Western(462)
Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female(1043)
Region Setting Gender
Yes
Yes90%
No10%
Do you have a National ID? (N=2042)
20
Why don’t you have a National ID?Why don’t you have a National ID?
46%
33%
16%
2%
2%
It has not come out yet
It got lost
Never registered
Was under age
It had errors and i took it back
21
Did you vote in the 2016 elections?9.Did you vote in the 2016 elections?
Male(999)
Female(1043)
Urban(709)
Rural(1333)
Central(586)
Eastern(452)
Kampala(155)
Northern(387)
Western(462)
Overall(2042)
18 – 29 Yrs (683)
30 – 39 Yrs (569)
40-49 Yrs(388)
50-59 Yrs(227)
60+ Yrs(175)
Overall(2042)
Gender Setting Region Age
80%84%
76%73%
83%
75%
85%
61%
84% 84%80%
63%
85%
91%94%
86%
22
Why didn't you vote in 2016?Qn10.Why didn't you vote in 2016?
31%
27%
25%
22%
3%
2%
2%
1%
I did not have time to vote
Elections are not credible
Í was under voting age
I had not registered to vote
I could not find the polling station
I did not vote because my name was missing in the voters register
I was prevented from voting
I don’t know/can't remember
Base = 407
23
24
Status of the current direction of UgandaLets start with the general view about the current direction of our country. Some people think that our country is going in the wrong direction. Others think it’s going in the right direction. So let me ask YOU about the overall direction of the country: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?
Going in the wrong direction, 60%
Going in the right direction, 32%
Don’t know, 6%No comment, 2%
Going in the wrong direction
Going in the right direction
Don’t knowNo comment
25
Status of the current direction of UgandaLets start with the general view about the current direction of our country. Some people think that our country is going in the wrong direction. Others think it’s going in the right direction. So let me ask YOU about the overall direction of the country: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?
NRM Supporter (731) Independent (780) Refused to answer (153) Combined opposition parties(378)
Overall (2042) Political Side
60%
42%
65%62%
82%
32%
52%
25%
18%14%
6% 5% 7% 8%3%2% 1% 3%
12%
1%
Going in the wrong direction Going in the right direction Don’t know No comment
Only 32% of Ugandans Believe that their country is heading in the right directions. Half of NRM supporters believe that the country is going in the right direction
26
Status of the current direction of Uganda (Cont…)Lets start with the general view about the current direction of our country. Some people think that our country is going in the wrong direction. Others think it’s going in the right direction. So let me ask YOU about the overall direction of the country: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?
Overall (2042) Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
Setting Gender Region
60%62%
59%61% 59%
65%67% 68%
55%
49%
32%29%
34% 33%31%
27% 27%
23%
39%42%
6% 6% 5% 4%7%
5%4% 5% 5%
8%
2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%5%
1% 2%
Going in the wrong direction Going in the right direction Don’t know No comment
27
Status of the current direction of Uganda (Cont…)Lets start with the general view about the current direction of our country. Some people think that our country is going in the wrong direction. Others think it’s going in the right direction. So let me ask YOU about the overall direction of the country: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?
Overall 18 – 29 Yrs (683) 30 – 39 Yrs (569) 40-49 Yrs (388) 50-59 Yrs (227) 60+ Yrs (175)
Overall (2042) Age Brackets
60%62% 63%
58%56%
53%
32%29% 29%
37% 36% 36%
6% 6% 6%3%
6%9%
2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3%
Going in the wrong direction Going in the right direction Don’t know No comment
28
Describing Uganda’s current Economic conditionsQn12a. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very bad, and 5 is very good, in general,
how would you describe the present economic condition of this country?
Overall (2042) NRM Supporters (731) Independent (780) Refused to answer (151) Combined opposition parties(380)
Political Side
42%
34%
43%40%
55%
25%23%
27% 27%24%
10% 9%12% 12%
7%
20%
28%
16% 16%
12%
2%5%
1% 1% 1%1% 1% 1%4%
0.3%
Very bad Bad Neither good nor bad Good Very Good Don’t know
33%
22%
17% 17%13%
29
Describing Uganda’s current Economic conditionsQn12a. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very bad, and 5 is very good, in general,
how would you describe the present economic condition of this country?
Overall (2042) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
Region
42%
46%
40% 40%
44%
36%
25%27%
31%
23% 22% 21%
10%11%
7%
14%
8%
11%
20%
15%
18%21%
23%24%
2%1%
2% 1% 2%
5%
1% 0% 1%2%
1%3%
Very bad Bad Neither good nor bad Good Very Good Don’t know
22%
16%
22%
31%
30
Describing Uganda’s Economic conditions 12 months ago13.On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is much worse and 5 is much better, looking back,
how do you rate economic conditions in this country compared to 12 months ago
Much worse24%
Worse35%
Same23%
Better14%
Much better2%
Don’t know1%
Overall (2042)
31
Describing Uganda’s Economic conditions 12 months ago13.On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is much worse and 5 is much better, looking back,
how do you rate economic conditions in this country compared to 12 months ago
Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
Overall (2042) Region
24% 24%27%
31%
20% 20%
35%
38% 38%
31%
42%
26%
23%21%
19%18%
21%
32%
14% 15%13% 13%
14%16%
2%1%
2%
5%
2%
4%
1% 1% 1% 2% 1%2%
Much worse Worse Same Better Much better Don’t know
59%62% 65%
61%
62%
46%
32
Describing people’s living conditions12b. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very bad, and 5 is very good, in general, how
would you describe your own present living condition?
Very bad Bad Neither good norbad
Good Very Good
31%
27%
13%
26%
2%
Overall (2042)28%
33
Describing people’s living conditions12b. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very bad, and 5 is very good, in general, how
would you describe your own present living condition?
Overall (2042) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
Region
31%
34%33%
24%
35%
27%27%
22%
33%
26%
31%
26%
13%15%
6%
15%
10%
17%
26%28%
26%
32%
22%
25%
2%1% 2% 2% 2%
4%
Very bad Bad Neither good nor bad Good Very Good
28%29%
28%
34%
24%
28%
34
35
Political party affiliation15. Are you are a member to any political party?
Yes56%
No38%
Refused to disclose6%
(N=2042)
36
Political party affiliation15. Are you a member to any political party?
Central (574) Eastern (440) Kampala (130) Northern (378) Western (457)
Overall (2042) Region
56%
43%
65%
43%
60%63%
38%
52%
28%
55%
32%30%
6% 6% 7%
2%
7% 6%
Yes No Refused to disclose
Political affiliation lowest in Central and Kampala
37
Political party affiliation15. Are you a member to any political party?
Overall (2042) Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043) 18 – 29 Yrs (683)
30 – 39 Yrs (569)
40-49 Yrs (388) 50-59 Yrs (227) 60+ Yrs (175)
Setting Gender Age bands
56%
48%
60% 60%
52%49%
53%
64% 63%61%
38%
46%
34% 35%
42% 43% 42%
31% 31% 31%
6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7%5% 5%
7%9%
Yes No Refused to disclose
38
Which political party are you member to?16. Which political party are you member to
64%
18%
10%
2%
2%
2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
NRM
FDC
People Power
UPC
Democratic Party (DP)
Refused to disclose
Go Forward
New Formation/Alliance for National Transformation
The Justice Forum (JEEMA)
The People`s Development Party (PDP)(n=1137)
39
Which political party are you member to?16. Which political party are you member to
OverallSetting Gender Region
Urban Rural Male Female Central Eastern Kampala Northern Western
Base 1137 342 795 598 539 250 295 66 234 292
NRM 64% 58% 67% 63% 65% 47% 67% 39% 73% 75%
FDC 18% 19% 17% 19% 16% 18% 22% 18% 11% 18%
People Power 10% 13% 9% 10% 11% 23% 7% 32% 3% 4%
UPC 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 1% 1% 9%
Democratic Party (DP) 2% 5% 1% 3% 1% 6% 0% 9% 1% 1%
Go Forward 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
New Formation/Alliance for National Transformation
0% 0% 0% 0%
The Justice Forum (JEEMA) 0% 0% 0% 0%
The People`s Development Party (PDP)
0% 0% 0% 0%
Refused to disclose 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2%
40
Having a party membership cardQn17. Do you have a membership card for that party?
Yes55%
No45%
Do you have a membership
card for that party? (n=1137)
Central(249)
Eastern(293)
Kampala(66)
Northern(233)
Western(292)
Urban(340)
Rural (793) Male (595) Female(538)
Overall(1137)
Region Setting Gender
55%
36%
65%
27%
60%
65%
46%
59%61%
49%
Yes
41
How did you get the membership card?18.How did you get the membership card?
94%
6%
18. How did you get the
membership card? (n=628)
Was given free I bought it
Overall(628)
Urban(158)
Rural (470) Male (363) Female(265)
Central(90)
Eastern(191)
Kampala(18)
Northern(140)
Western(189)
Setting Gender Region
93%93%
93%
92%
95%
93%
94%
89%
91%
94%
Was given free
42
How did you get the membership card? (By party affiliation)18.How did you get the membership card?
94%
6%
(n=628)
Was given free I bought it
NRM Supporters (508) Combined opposition parties (120)
Political side
98%
75%
2%
23%
Was given free I bought it
43
Respondents’ views on age limit removal25.Some people think that Presidential age limit was important, and therefore removing it was bad, while other people supported the
idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?
It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment
28%
65%
4% 3%
It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment
44
Respondents’ views on age limit removal25.Some people think that Presidential age limit was important, and therefore removing it was bad, while other people supported the
idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?
NRMSupporters
(731)
Independent(780)
Refused toanswer (151)
Combinedopposition
parties (380)
Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
Overall (2042) Political Side Region
28%
52%
17%13%
10%
20%25% 24%
38%35%
65%
43%
74%
61%
88%
74%
67%70%
57% 56%
4% 3%6%
11%
1% 2%5% 5%
3%7%
3% 2% 3%
14%
1%4% 4%
1% 3% 3%
It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment
45
Respondents’ views on age limit removal25.Some people think that Presidential age limit was important, and therefore removing it was bad, while other people supported the
idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?
Overall (2042) Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043) 18 – 29 Yrs (683)
30 – 39 Yrs (569)
40-49 Yrs (388) 50-59 Yrs (227) 60+ Yrs (175)
Setting Gender Age bands
28%
25%
29%27% 28%
25% 24%
31%34% 34%
65%67%
63%67%
62%66%
69%
62%59%
55%
4% 4% 4% 3%5% 5% 4% 4% 3%
5%3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2%
4%6%
It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment
46
Respondents’ views on age limit removal25.Some people think that Presidential age limit was important, and therefore removing it was bad, while other people supported the
idea of removing the presidential age limit so that anybody can contest as much as he wishes. What are your views?
Nev
er g
on
e to
sch
oo
l (2
06
)
Som
e p
rim
ary
edu
cati
on
(49
3)
Pri
mar
yed
uca
tio
nco
mp
lete
d (
294
)
Par
t se
con
dar
yed
uca
tio
n (
469
)
Co
mp
lete
dSe
con
dar
yed
uca
tio
n (
228
)
Dip
lom
a (1
34
)
Cer
tifi
cati
on
of
trad
e/cr
aft
(98
)
Bach
elor
’s de
gree
(1
05
)
Mas
ters
/Po
stgr
adu
ate
Deg
ree
(10)
Do
cto
rate
(2
)
28%34% 33%
30% 29%
23%19%
16% 17%
10%
0%
65%
53%57%
64% 65%70%
75%81% 79% 80%
100%
4%8% 6% 5% 3% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
3% 5% 4%2% 3% 4% 4%
1%4%
10%
0%
It was good to remove the age limit It was bad to remove he age limit I don’t know I have no comment
47
48
Participating in the 2021 Elections24.Will you personally participate in an election in 2021?
86%
6% 8%
N= 2042
Yes No I don’t know
Overall (2042) Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
85%
80%
88%
77%
90%88%
7%9%
5%
13%
4% 5%8%
10%6%
10%5%
7%
Yes No I don’t know
49
Should Opposition front one joint presidential candidate21. Do you support the idea that the opposition should front one joint presidential
candidate?
39%
38%
15%8%
(N=2042)
Yes No Don't know No Comment
Urban (709) Rural (1333) NRMSupporter
(731)
Independent(780)
Refused toanswer (153)
Combinedopposition
parties (378)
Overall (2042) Setting Political Side
39%
44%
36%
25%
38%
33%
69%
38%36%
39%
50%
36%
19%
25%
15%13%
16%19%
15%
25%
4%
8% 8% 8%5%
11%
22%
2%
Yes No Don't know No Comment
50
Who should be the joint opposition presidential candidate? 22. If yes, who should be the joint opposition presidential candidate?
RobertKyagulanyi
Dr. KiizaBesigye
NorbertMao
MugishaMuntu
Olara Otunu JimmyAkena
AmamaMbabazi
AbedBwanika
Patrick OboiAmuriat
Undecided Nocomment
42%
24%
5%3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
11%9%
51
Support for the idea that the opposition should front one joint presidential candidate
22. If yes, who should be the joint opposition presidential candidate?
Ov
era
ll
Political Side Region Setting Gender
NR
M
Su
pp
ort
er
Ind
ep
en
de
nt
Re
fuse
d t
o
an
swe
r
Co
mb
ine
d
op
po
siti
on
pa
rtie
s
Ce
ntr
al
Ea
ste
rn
Ka
mp
ala
No
rth
ern
We
ste
rn
Urb
an
Ru
ral
Ma
le
Fem
ale
Base 795 186 297 51 261 240 154 85 145 171 313 482 411 384
Robert Kyagulanyi 42% 30% 40% 45% 53% 53% 44% 59% 28% 31% 46% 40% 43% 41%
Dr. Kiiza Besigye 24% 25% 21% 12% 28% 18% 27% 14% 20% 38% 22% 25% 25% 23%
Norbert Mao 5% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4% 1% 19% 2% 3% 7% 5% 5%
Mugisha Muntu 3% 5% 4% 6% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 8% 4% 3% 4% 2%
Olara Otunu 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Jimmy Akena 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 6% 1% 2% 1% 2%
Amama Mbabazi 1% 2% 1% 6% 0% 1% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%
Abed Bwanika 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Patrick Oboi Amuriat 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Undecided 11% 11% 13% 16% 8% 12% 14% 18% 6% 8% 11% 11% 9% 13%
No comment 9% 18% 11% 10% 2% 8% 10% 8% 10% 11% 11% 9% 9% 10%
52
Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?
Yes No I don’t know No comment
33%
47%
15%
5%
(N=2042)
53
Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?
Overall (2042) NRM Supporter(731)
Independent(780)
Refused toanswer (153)
Combinedopposition
parties (378)
Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
Political Side Region
33%
39%
29%
25%
34%
28%26%
35%
42%
37%
47%45%
50%
30%
49%48%
57%
50%
42%
37%
15%14%
16%
25%
13%15%
13%10%
12%
22%
5%2%
6%
20%
3%
9%
4% 5% 4% 3%
Yes No I don’t know No comment
54
Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?Will you vote your current MP back to Parliament?
Overall (2042) Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043)
Setting Gender
33%33% 33% 32% 33%
47%
43%
48% 48%
45%
15%17%
14% 14%
17%
5%7%
4%6% 5%
Yes No I don’t know No comment
55
Reasons for voting / not voting current MP back to
Parliament
My MP is of opposition
My MP is of NRM
He is corrupt
My MP is now old
He is not a good leader
Betrayed his people by supported age limit…
He is not developmental at all
Does not fulfill his compaign promises
He has done nothing visible in our constuency
Represents someone else not us
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
5%
7%
10%
72%
No (n=951)
He is my party member
Young and patriotic
He cares about his people living in theconstituency
He is a good leader
He has done great things in our area(extending electricity lines, repairing
boreholes, etc)
Fulfills his compaign promises
1%
4%
5%
10%
15%
66%
Yes (n=673)
56
Views on whether President Museveni should / should
not contesting again in 202131.Some people support the idea that President Museveni should contest again in 2021 others say he shouldn’t. What is your view?
54%38%
4%4%
(N=2042)
He shouldn't contest He should contest I don’t know No comment
57
Views on whether President Museveni should / should not contesting again in 2021
31.Some people support the idea that President Museveni should
contest again in 2021 others say he shouldn't; What is your view?
Urban (709) Rural (1333) Male (999) Female (1043)
Overall (2042) Setting Gender
54%58%
52%
57%
51%
38%
32%
41%
37%39%
4% 5% 4% 3% 5%4% 5% 3% 3%5%
He shouldn't contest He should contest I don’t know No comment
58
Views on whether President Museveni should / should not contesting again in 2021
31.Some people support the idea that President Museveni should
contest again in 2021 others say he shouldn't; What is your view?
NRM Supporter(731)
Independent(780)
Refused toanswer (153)
Combinedopposition
parties (378)
Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
Overall (2042) Political Side Region
54%
27%
63%
51%
88%
65%
55%
61%
46% 44%
38%
68%
27%
18%
10%
27%
37%
30%
47%50%
4% 2%6%
15%
1%3%
6%2% 4% 5%4% 2% 4%
16%
1%6%
2%
8%4% 2%
He shouldn't contest He should contest I don’t know No comment
59
Best to replacement for President Musevenias a chairman and leader of NRM
If President Museveni was to retire, which NRM leader would be best
to replace him as a chairman and leader of NRM?
RebeccaKadaga
RuhakanaRugunda
MuhooziKainerugaba
Salim Saleh John PatrickAmamaMbabazi
KatumbaWamala
SsekandiEdward
JanetMuseveni
JacobOulanyah
MosesKigongo
None of theabove
15%
11%10%
6%3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0.4%
50%
If President Museveni was to retire, which NRM leader would be best to replace him as a chairman and leader of NRM?
(Only NRM supporters)
60
What if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for?
34.What if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow, who
would you vote for? SINGLE CHOICE
YoweriMuseveni
RobertKyagulanyi(Bobi Wine)
KizzaBesigye
KadagaRebeca
Nobert Mao JimmyAkena
MugishaMuntu
MuhooziKainerugaba
AmamaMbabazi
JanatMuseveni
BasalirwaMuhammad
Declined tomention
Undecided
32%
22%
13%
2% 2% 2% 2%1% 1% 0.2% 0.1%
4%
20%
(N=2042)
61
What if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for?
34.What if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for? SINGLE CHOICE
Ov
era
ll
Region Setting Gender
Central Eastern Kampala Northern Western Urban Rural Male Female
Base 2042 586 452 155 387 462 709 1333 999 1043
Yoweri Museveni 32% 19% 32% 22% 39% 47% 28% 35% 32% 33%
Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) 22% 33% 19% 35% 13% 13% 26% 20% 23% 21%
Kizza Besigye 13% 12% 12% 10% 11% 19% 14% 13% 14% 13%
Kadaga Rebeca 2% 2% 7% 3% 1% 0% 2% 3% 3% 2%
Nobert Mao 2% 2% 1% 8% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Jimmy Akena 2% 0% 1% 7% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2%
Mugisha Muntu 2% 3% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1%
Muhoozi Kainerugaba 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Amama Mbabazi 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0.1% 1% 0% 1%
Janat Museveni 0.2% 2% 0% 0.4% 0.1% 0% 0%
Basalirwa Muhammad 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0%
Undecided 20% 22% 23% 24% 17% 13% 20% 19% 18% 21%
Declined to mention 4% 7% 4% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3%
62
How much do you trust the electoral commission to conduct a free and fair election?
35.How much do you trust the electoral commission to conduct a free and fair election?
I trust it very much I don't trust it at all I do trust it alittle No comment
28%
47%
15%
10%
(N=2042)
63
How much do you trust the electoral commission to conduct a free and fair election?
35.How much do you trust the electoral commission to conduct a free and fair election?
NRMSupporters
(731)
Independent(780)
Refused toanswer (151)
Combinedopposition
parties (380)
Overall (2042) Political Side
28%
55%
16%12%
8%
47%
25%
57%
44%
68%
15%13% 15%
12%
21%
10%7%
12%
31%
3%
I trust it very much I don't trust it at all
Central (586) Eastern (452) Kampala (155) Northern (387) Western (462)
Region
19%
27%
17%
38% 38%
60%
46%45%
41%
35%
11%
17%
30%
11%
17%
10% 10%8%
10% 10%
I trust it very much I don't trust it at all
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