what do the opinion polls tell us and what does it mean for politics?

What do the opinion polls tell us and

what does it mean for politics?

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What do the opinion polls tell us and

what does it mean for politics?

Bobby Duffy, MD Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute

[email protected]

@BobbyIpsosMORI

mailto:[email protected]

What they’re saying

now…

4 September’s poll showed a curbing of enthusiasm

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -10

All giving a voting intention:

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

30%

40%

10%

10%

10%

Base 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th -9h September 2013, all certain to vote = 545

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote:


34%

37%

10%

11%

8%

5 Labour are holding on to most of 2010 voters


Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote

Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013

Voted Tory

in 2010

Voted LD

in 2010

Voted Labour

in 2010


Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more

49%

20%

31%

59% 23%

18% 26%

13% 61%

6 Not winning over many Tories…


Still Con, not certain to vote


Voted Tory

in 2010


Still Con and certain to vote Not Con any more

49%

20%

13%

5%

2% 11%

Other

Lib Dems

UKIP

Labour

7 Relying heavily on Lib Dem switchers


Still LD, not certain to vote


Voted LD

in 2010


Still LD and certain to vote Not LD any more

26%

13%

29%

7%

5%

20% Other

UKIP

Conservatives

Labour

8

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Can tell us about the issues...

The economy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May

1997

May

1998

May

1999

May

2000

May

2001

May

2002

May

2003

May

2004

May

2005

May

2006

May

2007

May

2008

May

2009

May

2010

May

2011

May

2012

9

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over

the next 12 months?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

But big increases in economic optimism recently


Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index =

% improve minus % get worse

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

r-90

Sep

-90

Ma

r-91

Sep

-91

Ma

r-92

Sep

-92

Ma

r-93

Sep

-93

Ma

r-94

Sep

-94

Ma

r-95

Sep

-95

Ma

r-96

Sep

-96

Ma

r-97

Sep

-97

Ma

r-98

Sep

-98

Ma

r-99

Sep

-99

Ma

r-00

Sep

-00

Ma

r-01

Sep

-01

Ma

r-02

Sep

-02

Ma

r-03

Sep

-03

Ma

r-04

Sep

-04

Ma

r-05

Sep

-05

Ma

r-06

Sep

-06

Ma

r-07

Sep

-07

Ma

r-08

Sep

-08

Ma

r-09

Sep

-09

Ma

r-10

Sep

-10

Ma

r-11

Sep

-11

Ma

r-12

Sep

-12

Ma

r-13

Sep

-13

Best party on economy

Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

38%

20%

5%

11

What do you think are the two most important issues facing your country/you

are facing at the moment?

But need to look at what worries people

personally…

Base: c. 1,300 Source: Standard Eurobarometer 79 , Spring 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40

Rising prices/inflation

Unemployment

Immigration Economic situation Crime

Health and social security Pensions

Education system

Taxation

Housing Terrorism

Environment

Most important issue for my country

Most important issue for me

personally

12 Much closer on this…

Do you think you and your family would be better off under a Conservative government or a

Labour government, or do you think it would make no difference?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013


22%

52%

23%

2% Conservative

government

Labour

government

Make no

difference

Don’t know

But real value of opinion

polls much more than this

1. Learn more about

future from looking back

– changing generations…

Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI

All data points represent > 200 responses

Source: British Social Attitudes

Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

Support for political parties is declining...

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

% Yes




Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% yes

...driven by rock solid generational pattern




“How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”

Massive shift in generational voting patterns...

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


% Conservative





... Labour very different

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


% Labour





Just not true…

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat

Generation Y General elections

Lower sense of duty to vote: turnout vital,

sense of something at stake vital to that





Where have pre-war gone?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


% Undecided

Largest increase in UKIP vote

76% of pre-war voted 2010

49% of generation Y....


2. Look internationally - is lack of political engagement a British disease?




“Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties?”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


% “yes” UK

We have widest dispersal between oldest and

youngest on connection to parties…





0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


% “Yes” Germany

Compare Germany…





0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


% “Yes” Sweden

Sweden very different pattern…





0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


% “Yes” Ireland

Irish brought together by rejection of all parties…

3. Remind us of our many

misperceptions…

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

….including on immigration…

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England

and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.

What percentage of the

United Kingdom

population do you

think are immigrants to

this country (i.e. not

born in the UK)?

13

31

Actual

Average estimate

Top two answers why think higher:

we don’t believe you, illegal

immigration not counted…

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

NOT saying people stupid…

Can influence estimates – if incentivised, we get more

accurate…

“Mythbusting” alone unlikely to work: need clear narrative

and emotional appeal too

…because we have “motivated reasoning” on these

things: both “accuracy” and “directional” goals…

… “Emotional innumeracy”: we’re wrong because we’re

worried, as well as being worried because wrong…


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The Sun Daily Mail Daily Mirror

Daily Telegraph Daily Star Daily Express

The Times The Guardian The Independent & I Newspaper

Other None

Most important issue: Race relations/immigration/immigrants

Key benefit of opinion polls: remind us to be wary of our own

perspective…

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, 1996-2012

47ppt

range

Thank you

[email protected]

what do the opinion polls tell us and what does it mean for politics?

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