Decision Making

H Edu 4790/6790

Dealing with problems

Problem avoiders Problem solvers Problem seekers

Steps of problem solving

Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Problem definition

State the problem precisely Set objectives Assumptions

Structural assumptions Personal assumptions The problem itself

Steps of problem solving

Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Analyze the problem

Get the facts Analyze the facts Some common mistakes

Too broad or too narrow Symptoms rather than causes Wrong problem Escalating commitment

Steps of problem solving

Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Identify Alternative Solutions

Brainstorming Nominal Group Technique Computer-based decision support

Brainstorming

All criticism is ruled out “Freewheeling” is welcomed Quantity is important Building on one another’s ideas is

encouraged

Nominal Group

Participants work alone and write possible solutions to a stated problem

Ideas are read aloud without discussion All ideas are recorded Ideas are clarified Voting Steps 4 & 5 repeated as necessary

Steps of problem solving

Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Decision criteria

Environments of decision making Certainty Risk Uncertainty

Decision matrix

Decision matrix

N1 N2 N3

S1 R11 R12 R13

S2 R21 R22 R23

S3 R31 R32 R33

S = strategyN = states of natureR = results

Decision matrix

UPMILF

Poverty RetiredCommunity

Dentist + +/- +

Ortho + - -

Dentist &Ortho + - +/-

Decision matrix

$200k $250k $300k

2 R.N.s($100k)

$100k $150k $200k

3 R.N.s($150k)

$50k $100k $150k

4 R.N.s($200k)

0 $50k $100k

Steps of problem solving

Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating

Selecting, Implementing, Evaluating Evaluate alternatives Rank alternatives Types of analysis Decide on best solution Implement Evaluate

How managers deal with problems

System thinking Intuitive thinking Multidimensional thinking Strategic opportunism

Factors that influence…

The problem The problem solver The situation External environment Internal environment

Quality

The Ape Story Define quality CQI = continuous quality improvement

Approaches to CQI - Deming

Tally defects Analyze and trace them to the source Search for a way to improve the process Make corrections Keep a record of what happens afterwards Use statistics

Approaches to CQI - Juran

Quality trilogy Planning Control Improvement

Approaches to CQI - Crosby

Cost of quality Price of non-conformance Price of conformance

Do it right the first time The customer first, last, and always

Tools

Benchmarking Cause and effect diagram FOCUS-PDCA

Reengineering

Inside-out planning Outside-in planning Reengineering (text)

An Example

Case…the Carbondale Clinic