dec 18-19, osaka
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Dec 18-19, OSAKA. IPv6. The New Internet. TAMING THE NET. I Love You. Famous Last Words. ”The telephone would be used only to inform people of arrival of telegrams.". 1876 : Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE 1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH. -- 15 % Penetration. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Dec 18-19, OSAKA
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I Love You
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1876: Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH The telephone would be used only to inform people of arrival of telegrams."-- 15 % Penetration -- 2 Days Walk for 1 Billion people
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"640K ought to be enough for anybody."-- Bill Gates, 1981-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943. "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
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32 bits should be enough address space for Internet-- Vint Cerf, 1977
Not everything that can be counted, counts. -- Einstein, 1879-1955
And not everything that counts, can be counted
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ARPANET DEMONSTRATIONJohannesburg, South Africa, 1974
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Percentage of Ownership10080604020010080604020120Years Since Introduction
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NCP Conception
NCP Roll-Out1961 19691969 19821972 19821983 Now! 1991 1995-Now
IP Conception
IPv4 Roll-Out
IPv6 Conception
IPv6 Roll-Out2000
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Sheet1
1 G2 G3 G
10 * 410 * 810 * 10
ProfessionalsInnovatorsEveryone
Email, FtpWWWWireless, Streaming Media
9.6 k56 k1 + M
Government InternetPublic InternetGlobal Internet
Sheet2
Sheet3
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Users on the Internet CAN/US - 125162Europe - 48 59Asia/Pac - 46 67Latin Am - 10 14Africa - 3 3--------------------------------------------------Total - 232 305 Mio Mar 10, 2000 Sep 7, 2000Source: Telcordia
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75% of traffic on Internet is WWW3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999)700 Million web pages (and dark info)Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data)8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.)Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2002
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Can the Internet runQuality & Security in one go?Internet multicast video, telephony and radio Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TVReal-time quality of service support, VoIPMutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)
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Internet-enabled DevicesIn need of IP Addresses, at least!Information appliances1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC)WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega gamesWearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)
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PersonPersonApplianceApplianceVoiceEmailVoiceMailTelemetryITSAlarmNotificationsEmergingGrowingGrowingMaturingVoice ControlFaxComputer TeIephony IntegrationHome BankingInfoCom Application Areas
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Source: Cadence, 1998
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Wireless Internete.g.Internet cell phones, camerasalways on networking increasing demand for IP address spaceBluetooth, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast SatelliteMobile Radio - 3G cellular (2 Mb/s)
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Looking for Killer Apps?
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Any Time, Any Where
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Future ServicesVoice still key serviceMobile E-commerceMobile officeMobile imagesMobile e-mailMobile internetVertical applications
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Vision: World at your fingertipsADSL, Cable TV,...Service Gateway
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The New Telecom World . Beyond Voice
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1 BThe Rush to the Billion! Mobile Internet:in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today
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Wide Area Coverage Local Area Coverage Mobile Information Society Wireless, secure, high speed accessMessaging internet always onShared databases &applicationsMobile telephonySeamless servicesIPFast Internet & IntranetMobile multimedia
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WirelessInformationSocietyS-UMTSSatelliteBroadbandDVB-SDVB-TDABGSMGPRS/EDGEIRBroadbandW-LANUMTSSatellite/HAPSBroadcastingCellularIndoorMBS 40xMDSBroadband WFAWireless Local LoopBody LANsPersonalArea NetworksUMTS ++4th GenerationLocal Area NetworksMBS 60MWSBluetoothQuasi-CellularSource: Joao DaSilva
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Strategic IPv6 Icebreakers
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100% IPv6 readiness by 2005 Prime Mister, Yoshiro MoriJun Murais Speech at IST 2000 in Nice
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IPv4 ((NAT)) IPv6197019802000IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!1990 -?
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Internet IP Address Need forecasts200 Millions
Source: Internet Software Consortium (http://www.isc.org)
Chart1
1.3133397033970
1.7763415134151
2.2173433534335
3.2123451634516
5.8463470034700
8.23488134881
14.3523506535065
16.7293524735247
21.8193543135431
26.0533561235612
29.673579635796
36.7393597735977
43.233616136161
56.2183634236342
72.39872.39872.398
3670882.9243661974123.8876913448
36892100.9817471694165.4498741765
37073122.9712535529220.9554522154
37257149.7491341184295.082193968
37438182.3580920037394.0771785621
37622222.0678865024526.283272383
37803270.424776185702.8422295369
37987329.3117286183938.6336703875
38169401.02174118621253.5290711909
38353488.34712805011674.0664456155
host counts
1996-1999
1993-1999
year
N. Hosts (millions)
n-host
1Jan-9311,313
2Jul-9321,776
3Jan-9422,217
4Jul-9433,212
5Jan-9565,846
6Jul-9588,200
7Jan-961414,352
8Jul-961716,729
9Jan-972221,819
10Jul-972626,053
11Jan-983029,670
12Jul-983736,739
13Jan-994343,230
14Jul-995656,218
15Jan-0072727272,39872,39872,398
16Jul-0012483123,88882,924
17Jan-01165101165,450100,982
18Jul-01221123220,955122,971
19Jan-02295150295,082149,749
20Jul-02394182394,077182,358
21Jan-03526222526,283222,068
22Jul-03703270702,842270,425
23Jan-04939329938,634329,312
24Jul-041,2544011,253,529401,022
25Jan-051,6744881,674,066488,347
tuttisolo da 7 in avanti
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IP Address Haves &Have-Nots
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IP Address Haves &Have-Nots
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Sheet1
MillionYear 2005Year 2010
Mobile Phones15003000
Mobile IP Phones5001000
10% Roaming50100
400 Wireless Networks2000040000
Sheet2
Sheet3
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Projected routing table growth without CIDR/NATDeployment Period of CIDRMoores Law and NATsmake routing work todaySource: http//www.telstra.net/ops/bgptable.htmlBut they cannot berelied on foreverGrowth rate: ~15000 routes/year
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20636
20578
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