D n c Lin Minh Chu u ti tr

D n c T chc Di C Quc T thc hin

YEARS

NH GI BNG CHNG:

DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU

TI VIT NAM

Bo co ny c Lin Minh Chu u ti tr thc hin v xut bn. Nhng kin c a ra trong bo co ny l kin ca cc tc gi v khng nht thit phn nh quan im ca Chnh ph nc Cng Ha X Hi Ch Ngha Vit Nam, Lin Minh Chu u hay T chc Di c Quc t (IOM). Tn gi v cch trnh by cc ni dung trong bo co khng phn nh bt c quan im no ca IOM v tnh trng php l ca bt c quc gia, lnh th, thnh ph hay vng a l no, hoc v quyn hn, hoc lin quan n bin gii hoc ranh gii lnh th ca quc gia, lnh th, thnh ph hay vng a l.

T chc Di c Quc t tn ty vi nguyn tc di c nhn o v c trt t mang li li ch cho ngi di c v x hi. L mt t chc lin chnh ph, IOM cng vi cc i tc l cc quc gia thnh vin, cc t chc x hi v cng ng quc t cng phi hp hnh ng nhm: h tr trong vic p ng vi nhng thch thc v di c; thc y vic hiu bit v nhng vn ca di c; khuyn khch s pht trin kinh t v x hi thng qua vic di c; nng cao nhn phm v sc kho ca ngi di c.

Di c, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu: Bng chng cho chnh sch (MECLEP) l d n thc hin trong ba nm c Lin Minh Chu u ti tr v T chc Di c Quc t trin khai thng qua khi lin kt gm su i tc nghin cu. D n nhm lm tng cng hiu bit v mi quan h gia di c v bin i mi trng, trong c bin i kh hu. Ngoi ra nghin cu mi m ny cn nhm mc ch a ra mt s khuyn ngh chnh sch lin quan n nhng ng gp ca vic di c cho cc chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu v mi trng. Su quc gia trong d n gm Cng ha Dominica, Haiti, Kenya, Mauritius, Papua New Guinea v Vit Nam.

Bo co ny l mt trong su bo co nh gi ca cc quc gia tham gia th im trong d n MECLEP.

n v xut bn: T chc Di c Quc t 17 route des Morillons PO Box 17 1211 Geneva 19 Thy S Tel. : +41 22 717 91 11 Fax: +41 22 798 61 50 E-mail: hq@iom. int Website: www. iom. int

Hnh ba: Nh ca v ng s b nh hng bi hin tng xi l b bin khu vc ng bng sng Cu Long Vit Nam. IOM 2015 (Hnh: Susanne Melde)

2016 T chc Di c quc t (IOM)

Tt c quyn c bo m. Khng c ti s dng, lu tr, chuyn giao mt phn hoc ton b bo co ny di bt k hnh thc no, qua cng c in t, c, sao chp, thu m hoc bt c hnh thc no khc m khng c s ng trc bng vn bn ca IOM.

D n c Lin Minh Chu u ti tr

D n c T chc Di C Quc T thc hin

Bo co cho IOM c thc hin bi:

ng Nguyn AnhIrene Leonardelli

Ana Alicia Dipierri

YEARS

DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU

NH GI BNG CHNG:

TI VIT NAM

iiiNH GI BNG CHNG:DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU TI VIT NAM

LI CM N

Bo co ny c c l do s ng gp ca rt nhiu ngi. Trc tin chng ti xin gi li cm n chn thnh n Nhm c vn ca d n MECLEP ti Vit Nam, di s ch tr v iu phi ca ng ng Nguyn Anh v b Trn Th Ngc Th, v gip nh hng v c nhiu ng gp qu gi cho bo co; cm n b Susanne Melde iu phi, r sot v bin tp li bo co. Chng ti cng cm n b Trn Th Ngc Th, ng Paul Priest, ng Han Entzinger v ng Robert Oakes tham gia c, hiu nh v c nhng kin ng gp v xut quan trng cho bo co. Cui cng, xin cm n T chc Di C Quc T (IOM) ti Vit Nam v ht lng h tr chng ti trong sut qu trnh thc hin bo co ny.

vNH GI BNG CHNG:DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU TI VIT NAM

MC LC

LI CM N ...................................................................................... iii

DANH MC BNG BIU ....................................................................... vii

THUT NG V CH VIT TT .............................................................. ix

TM TT BO CO ................................................................................. xi

I. GII THIU .......................................................................................1

II. BI CNH ........................................................................................7

II.1. Bi cnh kinh t-x hi Vit Nam ...............................................9

II.2. D liu mi trng Vit Nam ..................................................12

II.3. Di c bng chng t qu kh ...............................................14

II.3.a. Di c v xut c ra nc ngoi .....................................14 II.3.b. Di c trong nc ..........................................................16 II.3.c. Di c bt buc do tc ng ca pht trin ...................19 II.3.d. Ti nh c ....................................................................20 II.3.e. Vai tr ca tin gi ......................................................21

III. CC THCH THC CHNH: MI QUAN H GIA DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU ......................................................................23

III.1. Nhng hin tng thi tit bt ng v tc ng ti hnh thi di c ......................................................................................25 III.1.a. Bo nhit i, dng lc v ma ln .............................25 III.1.b. L, l qut v st l t ................................................27 III.1.c. ng t .......................................................................29 III.1.d. Chy rng .....................................................................30

III.2. Qu trnh bin i kh hu din bin t t v tc ng ln cc hnh thi di c...........................................................................28 III.2.a. Nc bin dng ............................................................31 III.2.b. Xi l b bin ...............................................................32 III.2.c. Tng nhit ................................................................33 III.2.d. Xm nhp mn .............................................................34 III.2.e. Sa mc ha v hn hn .................................................35 III.2.f. Suy thoi t v rng ...................................................36 III.2.g. Mt a dng sinh hc ...................................................37

vi NH GI BNG CHNG:DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU TI VIT NAM

III.3. Tnh d b tn thng, mi trng v di c ............................38

III.3.a. Lp bn tnh d b tn thng ................................38 III.3.b. Loi sinh k b nh hng (v cc ng p lc) ............39 III.3.c. Di c trong nc, ti nh c v lnh nn do mi trng ..............................................................40 III.3.d. Di c xuyn bin gii ....................................................45

IV. B CNG C CHO CC NH HOCH NH CHNH SCH ................47

IV.1. Khung chnh sch hin hnh ....................................................49

IV.1.a. Bin i kh hu v mi trng: Qun l thin tai .......49 IV.1.b. Di c, di di v ti nh c theo k hoch ...................55 IV.1.c. Pht trin kinh t v gim ngho ..................................57 IV.1.d. S dng t ..................................................................58

IV.2. Cc chnh sch trong qu trnh xy dng .................................59

V. KT LUN, U TIN NGHIN CU V LA CHN CHNH SCH .......61

VI. TI LIU THAM KHO ......................................................................67

viiNH GI BNG CHNG:DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU TI VIT NAM

DANH MC BNG BIU

Hnh 1: Bn cc khu vc ca Vit Nam........................................10

Hnh 2: S nhng khu vc ven bin b xi l nghim trng nht ti min Nam Vit Nam.......................................................33

ixNH GI BNG CHNG:DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU TI VIT NAM

THUT NG V CH VIT TT

ADB Ngn hng Pht trin Chu CCSC Ban ch o iu tra Dn s Trung ngEU Lin minh Chu uFDI u t trc tip nc ngoiGDP Tng sn phm quc niGSO Tng cc Thng kILO T chc Lao ng Quc tIOM T chc Di c Quc tISPONRE Vin Chin lc v Chnh sch Ti nguyn Mi trng NGO T chc phi chnh phUN Lin Hp QucUNDP Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp QucUNFPA Qu Dn s Lin Hp Quc WB Ngn hng Th gii

x NH GI BNG CHNG:DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU TI VIT NAM

xiNH GI BNG CHNG:DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU TI VIT NAM

TM TT BO CO

Nc Cng ha X hi Ch ngha Vit Nam l mt trong su quc gia th im trong d n Di c, Mi trng v Bin i kh hu: Bng chng cho chnh sch (MECLEP) c Lin minh Chu u ti tr.

Sau khi nghin cu v tp hp cc ngun ti liu a dng gm cc bi bo, bi nghin cu khoa hc ca cc c quan chnh ph, cc t chc trong nc v quc t, chng ti thc hin bo co nh gi ny vi cc mc tiu sau: a) Trnh by mt ci nhn tng quan v mi lin h gia cc hnh thi di c v nhng thay i v mi trng Vit Nam; b) Phn tch phn bin nhng chnh sch quc gia gii quyt cc vn ny sinh t mi lin h ny; c) xut hng nghin cu v mt s khuyn ngh chnh sch.

Vit Nam l t nc thng hng chu nhiu thin tai nh bo l, hn hn v nc bin dng. Thin tai gy tc ng nghim trng khng ch i vi mi trng m cn nh hng n sinh k ca 90,73 triu c dn ca t nc. R rng, nhng iu kin mi trng bt li c nh hng khng nh n cc hnh thi di c Vit Nam. T nhng nm 1990 n nay, Chnh ph Vit Nam thc hin mt s chng trnh di di nhng cng ng chu nh hng ca suy thoi mi trng. Thm vo , s ngi phi di chuyn ch ngay ti cc a phng do nguy c thin tai trong nhng nm 2008 2015 vt qu con s 2 triu ngi. chnh l nhng biu hin r nt nht v mi lin h gia mi trng v di c.

Bo co kt lun rng nhiu nghin cu chi tit hn cn c tin hnh mang li hiu bit thu o v mi lin h ny, t gip gii quyt trit nhu cu ca ngi dn phi di di v di chuyn ch trn c nc. Ngoi ra, vic thnh lp mt B chuyn trch v cc vn di c c th s gp phn quan trng m bo nhng iu kin tt nht cho ngi di c.

ng bng sng Cu Long. IOM 2015 (Hnh: Susanne Melde)

I

GII THIU

3NH GI BNG CHNG:DI C, MI TRNG V BIN I KH HU TI VIT NAM

I. GII THIU

Chu Thi Bnh Dng, ni 4,4 t ngi hin ang sinh sng (UN DESA, 2015), l khu vc c nguy c chu nh hng v tc ng ln t cc him ha thin nhin hn bt c ni no khc trn th gii. y li l ni c cc hin tng kh hu cc oan tn sut ln, cng mnh v dn s d b tn thng do phn ln c ng ti nhng vng c ri ro cao. Cng nh nhiu nc khc trong khu vc, nc Cng ha X hi Ch ngha Vit Nam (sau y gi tt l Vit Nam) c bit d b tn thng trc nhng