dairying in india a medium-term outlook
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Dairying in India A medium-term Outlook. TN Datta (General Manager) National Dairy Development Board (NDDB). Indian dairying is based on the ‘low input - low output’ model. More than 80 percent of India’s farmers are marginal or small. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Dairying in IndiaA medium-term Outlook
TN Datta(General Manager)
National Dairy Development Board (NDDB)
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Indian dairying is based on the low input - low output modelMore than 80 percent of Indias farmers are marginal or small. They own almost 60 percent of the female bovines with only 30 percent of farm land.About 75 percent of the animal owners own 1-3 animals. Only 8 percent of households have herd size in excess of 4 animals.
*
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Involves lakhs of small farmers, each with 1-3 animalsMilk is the largest contributor to Agriculture GDPValue of milk output is Rs. 350 thousand Cr. in 2012-13 (Paddy - Rs. 182 thousand Cr. & wheat - Rs.131 thousand Cr.)Contribution close to 70% of the output from livestock While the share of agriculture is waning in GDP, the same for Livestock is almost constantOffers relatively stable stream of round the year income vis-a-vis crop production, which is weather dependent
Dairying in India is more than a business
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Value of output of milk group in India ( Crore)Source: National Accounts Statistics, CSO, GoI
Chart1
710.16553517931108.6826572299319.7971966765
924.92969956651856.4886270761455.6854623569
2222.0872050564341.13426882291909.5877335092
58684.309519471346007.117371426526744.7046345047
96419.675406759165555.810751684643752.928612386
269362.806234306151614.411740708102977.95846089
310020.549194506170002.10830067120123.9030255
milk group
paddy
wheat
Sheet1
Particulars1950-511960-611970-711995-962000-012010-112011-12
milk group71092522225868496420269363310021
paddy1109185643414600765556151614170002
wheat32045619102674543753102978120124
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Generates 5-6% of total rural employmentMajor source of rural employment, especially women employmentMajor source of subsidiary incomeSupports 20-30% of rural household incomeEnsures inclusive growth for rural householdsDairying as a livelihood in India
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Female bovine ownership in rural areasSource: Land and Livestock Survey, 59th Round, NSSO, 2002-03
Chart1
65
62
62
60
40
35
27
53
47
30
23
39
16
20
41
Series 1
(%) Rural Households owning female bovine
Sheet1
Series 1
Punjab65
Haryana62
Rajasthan62
Uttar Pradesh60
Bihar40
West Bengal35
Odisha27
Madhya Pradesh53
Gujarat47
Maharashtra30
Andhra Pradesh23
Karnataka39
Kerala16
Tamil Nadu20
All India41
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Size of herd owned in rural milieu*Source: Land and Livestock Survey, 59th Round, NSSO, 2002-03
Chart1
0.3695548803
0.3175271274
0.1452245951
0.0801508406
0.03
0.06
Sales
% rural households
Sheet1
Sales
1 animal37%
2 animals32%
3 animals15%
4 animals8%
5 animals3%
5+ animals6%
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Milk production & per capita availability*Source: Department of AHD&F, GoI
Chart1
48.40788-89165
51.40889-90171
53.93890-91176
55.6291-92178
57.96292-93182
60.60793-94186
63.80494-95192
66.19895-96195
69.14796-97200
72.12897-98205
75.42498-99210
78.28699-2K214
80.60700-01217
84.40601-02222
86.158996556802-03224
88.082445294503-04225
92.48404-05233
97.06605-06241
102.5806-07251
107.93407-08260
112.18308-09266
116.42509-10273
121.84810-11281
127.90411-12290
132.43112-13295
13-14137.960873589413-14
14-15143.721656119314-15
15-16149.722989571415-16
16-17155.974918543816-17
17-18162.487907063617-18
18-19169.272856100118-19
19-20176.341121810919-20
20-21183.704534548220-21
21-22191.375418660321-22
Actual milk production
Projected milk production
Per capita availability
Production (million tonnes)
PCA (Grams per day)
Sheet1
YearActual milk productionProjected milk productionPer capita availability
88-8948.4165
89-9051.4171
90-9153.9176
91-9255.6178
92-9358.0182
93-9460.6186
94-9563.8192
95-9666.2195
96-9769.1200
97-9872.1205
98-9975.4210
99-2K78.3214
00-0180.6217
01-0284.4222
02-0386.2224
03-0488.1225
04-0592.5233
05-0697.1241
06-07102.6251
07-08107.9260
08-09112.2266
09-10116.4273
10-11121.8281
11-12127.9290
12-13132.4295
13-14138.0
14-15143.7
15-16149.7
16-17156.0
17-18162.5
18-19169.3
19-20176.3
20-21183.7
21-22191.4
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*
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Pattern in milk consumptionBased on figures for 2012-13 of 132.4 million tons +Surplus handled by organised private sector is an estimate
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% Household reported milk consumptionSource: Consumer Expenditure Surveys, NSSO, GoI
Chart1
61.978.9
66.380
67.882.9
71.385
73.187
82.589
Rural
Urban
Sheet1
RuralUrban
87-8861.978.9
93-9466.380
99-2K67.882.9
04-0571.385
09-1073.187
10-1182.589
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Importance of milk in food basket*Source: Consumer Expenditure Surveys, NSSO, GoI
Chart1
0.150.6320.180.547
0.150.5940.180.481
0.150.550.190.425
0.160.5360.190.407
0.190.4860.20.385
Milk (Rural)
Food (Rural)
Milk (Urban)
Food (Urban)
Sheet1
1993-941999-2K2004-052009-102010-11
Milk (Rural)15%15%15%16%19%
Food (Rural)63%59%55%54%49%
Milk (Urban)18%18%19%19%20%
Food (Urban)55%48%43%41%39%
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Factors influencing milk demand*Demand Drivers
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Milk demandPublications by different researchers and analysts indicate high projected demand for milk in the years to follow.
Emerging trends indicate that milk demand is likely to be in the range of 200 to 210 million tonnes in 2021-22. *
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Change in WPI (%)*
Year2013-20142012-20132011-20122010-20112009-20102008-2009Food12.89.97.315.615.39.1Foodgrain9.114.63.64.914.511.0Milk6.07.210.320.118.87.6Veg. & fruits23.18.36.516.49.68.2Egg, Fish &Meat12.814.112.725.520.87.7All Commodities6.07.48.99.63.88.1
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Trade in dairy commodity*
Chart1
2.9153.473
3.2285.028
1.8546.258
6.6971.753
11.1582.254
* FEU: Fat Equivalent Unit
Export
Import
in 000 tonnes
Export & import (FEU*)
Sheet1
YearExportImport
2009-102.9153.473
2010-113.2285.028
2011-121.8546.258
2012-136.6971.753
2013-1411.1582.254
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Chart1
0
-0.0001
-0.0003
0.0004
0.0006
Net trade as % of milk production
Sheet1
YearNet trade as % of milk production
2009-100%
2010-11-0.01%
2011-12-0.03%
2012-130.04%
2013-140.06%
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Milk supply and demandProjected milk supply and demand scenario leaves a gap of about 10-20 million tonnes by 2021-22To bridge this gap, one of the initiatives taken by GoI and NDDB is National Dairy Plan (NDP) I A project funded by the World Bank*
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Why NDP I ?*The major source of growth in milk production is increase in animal numbers
Due to limited availability of resources like land, water, feed & fodder; growth in milk production may not sustain in longer run
Therefore, increasing the productivity levels of animals is need of the hour
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National Dairy PlanNDP, with a 15 year horizon, envisaged the following objective:
Meet the projected national demand of milk through domestic sources (not imports) by increasing production at the pace required through productivity enhancement, and
Strengthen/expand infrastructure for milk procurement, processing and marketing.*
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National Dairy Plan Phase ITo begin with, the World Bank agreed to support Phase I of NDP for a 6 year period (2012-13 to 2017-18) with the following Project Development Objective:
To help increase productivity of milch animals and thereby increase milk production to meet the rapidly growing demand for milk. To help provide rural milk producers with greater access to the organised milk-processing sector.
These objectives to be pursued through focussed scientific & systematic processes in provision of technical inputs supported by appropriate policy and regulatory measures.
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Project ComponentsPRODUCTIVITY ENHANCEMENTa) Production of high genetic merit (HGM) bulls b) Strengthening existing semen stations / starting new stationsc) Setting up a pilot model for viable doorstep AI delivery services d) Improving nutrition of milch animals through Ration Balancing and Fodder Development programme
VILLAGE BASED MILK PROCUREMENT SYSTEMS a) Milk weighing, testing and collection b) Milk cooling c) Support for creating institutional structure d) Training
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Thank You*
India has high population pressure on land and other resources to meet its food and development needs. The natural resource base of land, water and bio-diversity is under severe pressure Food demand challenges ahead are formidable considering the non-availability of favourable factors of past growth, fast declining factor productivity in major cropping systems and rapidly shrinking resource base
Classification of farmers
Marginal - less than __ haSmall - between __ and __ haMedium - between ___ and ___ haLarge above
Developing countriesDeveloped countriesFarm typeCottage industryIndustrial farmingHerd size1 to 4
The Industrial farming model is appropriate to countries where capital is plenty and labour scarce. The Cottage industry model is appropriate to countries where labour is plenty and capital is scarce.
30 to 400Feeding practicesCrop residuesGrain or pasture basedLabour use Human labourMachine labour
Developing countriesDeveloped countriesFarm typeCottage industryIndustrial farmingHerd size1 to 4
The Industrial farming model is appropriate to countries where capital is plenty and labour scarce. The Cottage industry model is appropriate to countries where labour is plenty and capital is scarce.
30 to 400Feeding practicesCrop residuesGrain or pasture basedLabour use Human labourMachine labour
Developing countriesDeveloped countriesFarm typeCottage industryIndustrial farmingHerd size1 to 4
The Industrial farming model is appropriate to countries where capital is plenty and labour scarce. The Cottage industry model is appropriate to countries where labour is plenty and capital is scarce.
30 to 400Feeding practicesCrop residuesGrain or pasture basedLabour use Human labourMachine labour