d1-07 carlson automotive connectivity v3€¦ · •connected cars represent a new “user” or...
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November1,2017
AUTOMOTIVECONNECTIVITY:IMPACTONTHEGLOBALNETWORKOFTOMORROW
SteveCarlson,HighSpeedDesign,Inc.JohnD’Ambrosia,Futurewei
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RegardingtheViewsExpressed
Steve’sIndustryInvolvement– Consultant,HighSpeedDesign,Inc.– ConsultingMember,EthernetAlliance– Chair,IEEEP802.3chMulti-GigabitAutomotiveEthernetPHYTaskForce– ExecutiveSecretary,IEEE802.3WorkingGroup
TheviewsIamexpressingonIEEEstandardsandrelatedproductsshouldNOTbeconsideredtheposition,explanation,orinterpretationoftheEthernetAlliance.
PerIEEE-SAStandardsBoardBylaws,Dec2016“Atlectures,symposia,seminars,oreducationalcourses,anindividualpresentinginformationonIEEEstandardsshallmakeitclearthathisorherviewsshouldbeconsideredthepersonalviewsofthatindividualratherthantheformalpositionofIEEE.”
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The“ExponentialFactor”
“Thegreatestshortcomingofthehumanraceisourinabilitytounderstandtheexponentialfunction.”
AlbertBartlett– AmericanScholar
3www.ethernetalliance.org
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Introduction• Bandwidthgrowthisdrivenby– Numberofusers– Accessrates– Services/Applicationsoffered
• ConnectedCarsrepresentanew“user”or“endstation”• Asautomotiveapplications(e.g.cloudservices,mapping,telemetry,anddataanalytics)increase,whatwillbetheimpactonthetrafficoftomorrow’snetworks?
• AnnualglobalIPtrafficsurpassedthezettabyte(ZB;1000exabytes[EB])thresholdin2016,andwillreach2.3ZBby2020.– GlobalIPtrafficwillreach1.1ZBperyearor88.7EB(onebilliongigabytes[GB])permonthin2016
– By2020,globalIPtrafficwillreach2.3ZBperyear,or194EBpermonth
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November1,2017
WHATISTHE“GLOBALNETWORK?”
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TheStartofEthernet
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Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/ethernet_diag.html
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Source:https://ethernetalliance.org/roadmap/
www.ethernetalliance.org
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"Thosewhodon'tknowhistoryaredestinedtorepeatit."
EdmundBurke(1729-1797)
8www.ethernetalliance.org
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Ethernet’s History of Rates
9www.ethernetalliance.org
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Source:DonnLeePresentationOFC2008
OFC/NFOEC2008:FacebookLivingintheVideoWorld
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TOOTHBRUSHGRAPH
VideoEnabled
This was a huge amount of traffic(multiple web services, millions of users)
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Someperspective:TheViewAfter10GigabitEthernet
Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/hssg/public/nov07/HSSG_Tutorial_1107.zip
Thebeginning....
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TheIEEE802.3EthernetBandwidthAssessment
Trend#1
BandwidthGrowth
Trend#2
DiversityGrowth
Note:autoswerenot
inthisforecast!Source:www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/BWA_Report.pdf
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“Disruptions”2007- 2014
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Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/400GSG/public/mar13/CFI_01_0313.pdf
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TheWorldDuringtheDevelopmentof400GbE
• ManyofthesesametrendswillbeexperiencedbytheConnectedCar
• Historywillrepeatitself
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Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/400GSG/public/mar13/CFI_01_0313.pdf
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MobileNetworksBandwidthTrends- Global
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Source:http://www.cisco.com/c/dam/m/en_us/solutions/service-provider/vni-forecast-widget/forecast-widget/advanced.html
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MobileNetworksBandwidthTrends- China
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Source:http://www.cisco.com/c/dam/m/en_us/solutions/service-provider/vni-forecast-widget/forecast-widget/advanced.html
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TheAutomobile– theNextEndStation
Metcalfe’sLaw:Thevalueofatelecommunicationsnetworkisproportionaltothesquareofthenumberofconnectedusersofthesystem
-Dr.RobertMetcalfe,inventorofEthernet
17www.ethernetalliance.org
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ConnectedCars– DrivingBandwidthonMobileNetworks
2019- 117MillionVehiclestobeproduced**CFIMulti-GigAutomotiveEthernetPHY,http://www.ieee802.org/3/cfi/1116_1/CFI_01_1116.pdf.
2011ForecastforGlobalWirelessTrafficGeneratedbyEmbeddedMobilitybyApplication
Source- GSMA,ConnectingCars:TheTechnologyRoadmap,February2013,https://www.gsma.com/iot/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GSMA_mAutomotive_TechnologyRoadmap_v2.pdf
AutomotiveEthernet
Car2CarConnection
Car2Cloud
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2019- 117MillionVehiclestobeproduced**CFIMulti-GigAutomotiveEthernetPHY,http://www.ieee802.org/3/cfi/1116_1/CFI_01_1116.pdf.
AutomotiveEthernet
Car2CarConnection
Car2Cloud
AutonomousDriving
Infotainment 5G
Regulatory
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ConnectedCars– DrivingBandwidthonMobileNetworks
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2019- 117MillionVehiclestobeproduced**CFIMulti-GigAutomotiveEthernetPHY,http://www.ieee802.org/3/cfi/1116_1/CFI_01_1116.pdf.
AutomotiveEthernet
Car2CarConnection
Car2Cloud
WhatElse?Willtherebeenoughbandwidthintheglobalnetwork?
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ConnectedCars– DrivingBandwidthonMobileNetworks
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Enablingbandwidth
Enablesapplications
Drivesbandwidth
TheStoryRemainstheSame….
TheConnectedCaristheNextChapter
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ASimpleEquationtoRemember
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#ofUsersIncreasedaccessrates&typesofconnections
Applicationsx x
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Summary• Globalbandwidthusage– growingexponentially
• Socialmedia,smartphones,andvideoalldisruptedtheglobalnetwork
• Continuousnewdriverstobandwidthgrowth
• Weneedtounderstandhowautomobileswilladdtothisbandwidthusagetoinsurethattheglobalnetworkwillsupporttheneeds
• Weneedtheautomotiveindustrytohelpusunderstandhowtosupportthebandwidthneeds---helpushelpyou!
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If you have any questions or comments, please email [email protected]
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JohnD’Ambrosia– [email protected] [email protected]
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Thankyou!