Overview: Current Population Projections and Trends

10,000 BC to 2000 AD – Log Scale Population

2014: 7,243,784,0002014 will add 81 Million

• One Day = 221,912• One Hour = 9,246• One Minute = 154

Instant Replacement: Increments, Total Increase and Total Global Population

Population Momentum!

A history of high fertility has resulted in a high proportion of women in the reproductive ages, and these ensure high crude birth rates long after the

age-specific rates have dropped.

UN Variants – High, Median, Instant Replacement & Low

16.6 Billion

10.8 Billion

6.7 Billion

3 Fertility Assumptions Informing Three Major Population Variants

End of Century High Fertility = 2.47

End of Century Medium Fertility = 1.99

End of Century Low Fertility = 1.51

High Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments

+ 9.4 Billion

Median Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments

6.7 Billion

Low Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments

Peak Addition of 1.2 Billion

Low Variant TFR with Total Population Curve; First “Reduction” at 2090

Median Variant Regional Population Curves

5.16 Billion

4.18 Billion

Asia Peak in 2054

4.71 Billion

1.13 Billion

Low Variant Regional Population Curves

4.63 Billion

2.82 Billion

Asia Peaks in 2036

Africa Peaks in 2097

Other Regions: Median Vs. Low Population

+/-249 M

+/-309 M

+/-175 M

+/-23 M

Covered 4 Variant Projections from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2012 Revision

1. Instant Replacement2. High Fertility3. Median Fertility4. Low Fertility

Compared and Contrasted Regional Growth

1. Median vs Low Population Projections

Top 15 Low Variant Growers

16 -30 Low Variant Growers Contribution to Global Growth

“Top 30” Shrinkers to 2049, Low Variant

1 to 15 16 to 30

Represents 90% of Total Global Consolidation

UN Variants – High, Median, Low & Constant Fertility

High Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate

Median Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate

Low Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate

Growth stops in 2049, after adding 1.2 billion.

• 146 Countries Add Appx. 1.5 billion.

• 77 Countries Shrinking by a Total of Appx. 300 million.

• (Net Gain of 1.2 Billion)

“Top 15” Growers to 2049, Low Variant= Contribution to Global

= % In-Country Increase

Top 30 Absolute Growers by 2049, Low Variant

Top 30 Absolute Shrinkers by 2049, Low Variant