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TheWorldPopulationTsunamiandTheUN’sRolebyIanKarusigariraAbstract

What is unique about the population crisis in theworld today?Well, it is a puzzle that needs a nuanced

analytical stance lest policy practitioners such as the UN prescribemedicine for a wrong treatment. The

world’sdemographyhasbeenexperiencing rapid structural changes since thebeginningof the2ndhalfof

20thcentury.While insomecountriesespecially inthedevelopingworldpopulationhasbeensteadilyand

disastrously increasing, the developed world today is not only generally faced by population stagnation

characterized by high ageing population rates, low fertility rates and diminishing workforce but also

continuestoexperiencehighimmigrantand/orrefugeeinflux.

Previous scholarspredominantly concentratedmost of their attentionononeparadigmof thepopulation

question- that is the population explosion itself. The population problem hereafter referred to, as the

‘populationtsunami’isratheracomplexyetintertwinedglobalissue.Thisproblemhasadifferentpicture

fromthepreviousanalysesbothintermsofthequalityandquantityofthepopulationbeingdiscussed.

Talkingofpopulationgrowthratecontrol,ithasbeenundoubtedlyunclearwhethertheeffectivenessof

populationcontrolpoliciessuchasreductionoffertilityandslowingdownofpopulationgrowth,canbe

reversed, if need for population increase through fertility arises especially in developing countries

(citingthenegativeeffectofbirthcontrolsinEurope,ChinaandJapan).IncountrieslikeChinapolicies

to shift from one child tomultiple children have been received with uncertainty. Fertility rates have

steadily fallen inmost of theworld’s developed countries such as Japan, China andmost countries in

Europe.

At this point, it is unclearwhich country in the developedworldwill see a significant increase in its

populationgrowthasdesired.Partly, theuncertaintyemanates from the current immigration crisis in

thesecountriesandausterityimmigrationmeasuressuchcountriesarefirmlyputtinginplaceandhigh

spiritofnationalismemerginginthecitizensofthesedevelopedcountries.However,itisclear,thatthe

population in the developedworld continues to shrink steadily and the ageing situation continues to

takeatollontheworkingpopulation.

20thcenturywitnessedrapidglobalpopulationexplosionespeciallyinthedevelopingcountriesthereby

creatingunexpectedriseintheworld’spopulation.UnfortunatelythisexplosionespeciallyinAfricaand

otherdeveloping regionshasnot comewith a fortunebut ratherundesirable conditions that take the

core of UN responsibility such as malnutrition, disease, drought, poverty, and environmental

degradation(especiallyinSub-Saharansub-continentwherelandisthesourceofeverythingnecessary

for survival such as shelter and farming. As Professor Kamuntu once remarked in an academic

presentationatMakerereUniversityKampalathat,ifyouhaveamajorityofthepopulationspendingsix

hoursoftheirdaylookingforwaterandcarryingit injerrycansontheirheadslikedonkeysandafter,

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theyspendthreemorehoursagain lookingfor firewoodtocookfood,youcannotexpectdevelopment.

The UN therefore needs to address these structural conflicts in the South to reverse the population

catastrophethatisalreadyevident.

Thepopulationproblem in thepresentdaydevelopingworld is (more thaneverbefore)aconcern for

the world leaders because its careful scrutiny may reverse the disastrous depletion of the world’s

environment and distortion of coexistence humanwith nature. Therefore, UN policy response to this

populationproblemmustaddressaspectsofHealth,familyplanningmethods,educationofwomen,and

gender empowerment, as well as socio-economic emancipation of developing countries. This is far-

fetchedfortheUNalonebuttheUNagenciescansteeradvocacyandstateawarenesstowardstheroleof

governmentsinthedevelopingcountriesaswellasotherinternationaldevelopmentandhumanitarian

agenciesinthepopulationpolicyformulation.

Considering the fact that, the phrase ‘population problem’ is no longer solely dependent on just the

population boom or explosion but rather, a phrase that encompasses other aspects such as ageing

populationinthedevelopedworld,immigrationeffectsonpopulation,globalization,disparitiesbetween

thefertilityratesinthedevelopingworldanddevelopedcountries,interactionoftheworldpopulation

withtheenvironmentaswellasissuesofhealth,povertyandeducation.Allthesehavecreatedamuch

more complex analysis and generated policy challenges for international humanitarian practitioners

suchastheUN.TheUNoughttoputthiscomplexnatureofthe‘populationtsunami’intoperspectiveto

havemuch reliable policies that cut across all the demographic paradigms of the problem facing the

contemporaryandthefuturepopulation.

Finally,suggestingtheroleoftheUNagainsttheworld’s“demographicTsunami”isunquestionablyfar-

fetchedbutUNastheworld’spolicecan,throughitsdifferentprograms,haveashotatalmostallissues

ofthe‘newpopulationproblem’.SuchUNeffortscanaddressstabilityandsecurity,poverty,natureand

environment, accountability and good governance, gender, prevention of health hazards improvement

of reproductive health and fertility services in developing countries. The UN also has a role in the

stabilization of hostility in the immigration/refugee crisis that has characterized Northern politics in

thiscentury.

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Introduction

In an attempt to approach the question of contemporary and forecasted ‘population Tsunami’,

scholars and practitioners of demography ought to reflect on the following questions: Is the

populationtsunamireallytsunami?HowistheTsunamireallyaproblem?HowdoestheTsunami

threatenthehumanrelationswithnature?WhatrolecanUNplaytocopewiththisdemographic

challenge?

Ithasbecomeobviousthattherealitiesofpopulationtsunamiarelifethreateningforthecurrent

and future generations as well as relations with the environment. In Africa for example, the

negative effects of population explosion are already visible with the rapid increase in massive

unemployment,poverty,watershortages,droughtandfaminetomentionbutafew.

TheUNandotherdevelopmentandhumanitarianpractitionersaswellasthetheoristsinterested

in world’s demography and population have buried their heads in books but yielded much-

simplified versions in respect to dealing with the contemporary population problem- the

populationtsunamisuchasbirthcontrolintheSouth.Also,populationtsunamihasbeeninthepast

projectedandreflecteduponbydemographersandpopulationspecialistsbutinsteadmoremulti-

diverseanalysisisdesired.Currently,thePopulationReferenceBureau(PRB)projectsthatby2050

thepopulationwillbe9.725billionsfromthe2017’s7.515billions.WhiletherecentUNprojections

indicate that the World population will reach 10 billion people in 2056 (Population Reference

Bureau).Thisessayseekstoanalyzethesepopulationprojectionsinsociologicaltermsbutopento

environmental,economicpoliticalanalyses.

What is interesting about all these projections? It is now more clear that; there is a severe

population tsunami that will further destabilize world peace and human coexistence with the

environment. Yet, limited mitigation has been evident. The reasons for the failure to find the

suitableorratherprobablepopulationcontrolstrategieshavebeenandstillareareserveofsocial

scientistswhosefocusiseitherunderstandingthereasonsforpopulationexplosioninsomeparts

of the world and population stagnation in others, or the normative attendances of the world’s

populationintheirisolatedcategorizations.

It is worth noting that when discussing population Tsunami, the two paradigms that is, the

population explosion in the South on one continuum, and the increasingly ageing population

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andtheimmigrationquestionintheNorthontheother,mustbegivenanequalplatformasthey

bothuniquelyposeathreattoworldpeaceandsecurityaswellasco-existencewiththenature.

As observed in the essay that follows, The UN’s role will be to emphasize policies aimed at

improvingthehumanresourcecapacityinthehighlypopulatedareasoftheworld.Thisinthe

end will provide quality human resource needed to fill the skilled labor gap in the ageing

developedworld.TheUNisalsofacedwithadauntingtaskofbridgingtheconflictgapbetween

immigrants/refugeesandthereceivingcountriesespeciallyinEurope.

Also, the influx of African immigrants to Europe in the recent past is an indicator that the

African continent can no longer sustain its people.Most of the immigrants from Sub-Saharan

sub-continent are actually socio-economic refugees under pressure of the undesirable

structural violence existing at themoment. The humanitarian crisis characterized bymassive

refugee inflow fromMiddleEast andNorthAfrica should certainly be a concern to theUN as

well. Efforts to stabilize the conflict areas through strategies to improve security and

governance,humanrightsandfreedomaswellassocio-economicempowermentoughttobeat

thecoreofUNfunction.

UNmustgobacktothedrawingboardandreconsidertheroot-causesofthepopulationexplosion

in developing countries and take a lead in addressing these causes. By doing this, the UN will

addressenvironmentaldegradation,reducerefugeeinfluxtodevelopedcountriesandempowerthe

peopleatthebottomoftheworld’spyramid.Itisnowcommonsensetoalaypersonthatthereisa

significant correlation between poverty and illiteracy, culture and high birth rates therefore

gender-based programs directed to these variables can be extremely fruitful especially in Sub-

SaharanAfrica.

Ontherefugeequestion,whentheUNdiscussesthesolutionstotherefugeecrisisonlyintermsof

humanitarianassistance torefugees, it lacks theaudacity toclaim influence inworldpoliticsand

world policing. The UN Security Councilmust try to address the veto crisis in its dealingswith

worldconflicts.InsomecaseslikeSyria,UNinvolvementiseithermoredisastrousorinsignificant

dependingonwhichSecurityCouncilmembercountryhasvestedinterests inagivenconflict. At

the end, social sciences scholars risk their intellectual conclusions into uncertainty and

speculations.

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In this essay, theoretical and conceptual issues related to world demography and ‘population

tsunami’will be analyzed. The essay also not only discusses how the UN should copewith the

escalatingpopulationtsunamibutalsosuggeststhepotentialroleoftheUNinthissituation.

It is structured in amulti-disciplinarymanner that is, itwill combine social sciences’ normative

aspects, and political sciences’ international relations as well as economics’ rational choice

theoreticalgroundingandstatisticaldemographic/populationanalyses.

It isstructured into threesections that is, the introduction, literatureandcurrentdebateson the

‘demographic problem’, how the UN is coping, and the UN’s role in curtailing this ‘demographic

tsunami’.

Thecurrentstateofknowledge

Sharma amathematics professor at Indian Institute of technology pointed out vividly thatwhen

discussingpopulationissues,adistinctionbetweendemographyandpopulationmustbemade.He

agreeswith the fact that,demographyoughtnot tobe limited to themerely formal treatmentof

changesinmortality,fertilityratesandmobilitylestsuchscholarsriskbeingperceivedaschemists

observingthecompressionofmercurywithoutinformationofrelatedchangesintemperaturesor

theconstitutionoftheliquiditself(Sharma2007:19).Sharmaimpliesherethatpopulationtodayis

interdisciplinary and therefore is nothing like pure demography. This draws all disciplines

includingthenaturalsciences,artsandsocialsciencesintothestudyofworldpopulation.

What is also interesting in the state of knowledge, are the conflicting paradigms between the

optimistic and pessimistic literature. Some scholars argue that, there is no need toworry about

populationandtheuseofenvironmentwhileothersarguethat,thedoomhasfallenoriscontinuing

tofall.Whatisimportanthoweverishowtobuildanintersectionbetweentheseconflictingideas

on population tsunami and environment. Luckily, both pessimists and optimists believe the fact

thatpopulationexplosionexists.Howcanwebridgethegapbypromotingresponsibleoccupation

oftheworld?Aquestionstilllingers.

AttemptingtotackletheconceptofpopulationtsunamiweoughttoreflectontheworksofMulthus.

Inhisessayontheprincipleofpopulation,Multhusaskedwherethefreshlandwouldcomefromas

theworldgetsfullyoccupiedbyhumanactivity(Multhus1798:4).Althoughheonlyconcentrated

on just one aspect of thepopulation tsunami in termsof the likelypopulation explosion, hewas

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spotonwhenheargued that, thewholeworld is likean islandand that everyacre in the island

wouldbejustlikeagarden.Multhusaddsthat,populationwillincreasebeyondthecapacityofthis

imaginary island. Multhus postulated that, the world populations would eventually become too

largetobesupportedbythefoodproducedonallagriculturalland,andthiswouldleadtosevere

mass starvation. Subsequently, there would be a natural dramatic shrinking of the population

(Ibid).

McLeish in response to Multhus’ predictions argues succinctly that, early demographers like

Multhus should have predicted the rapidly developing industrial and agricultural revolution.

McLeishaddsthat infactonaglobalscale, foodproductionhasgrownfasterthanthepopulation

(McLeish2010).McLeishwarns scholars againstmakingpredictions of the futureusing thepast

and the current state of knowledge because it is not always reliable. Therefore on the contrary,

McLeishclaimsthatthereisenoughlandforthepopulationintheworld(evenindenselypopulated

countrieslikeIndiaandTheUnitedKingdom).Theproblemtiedtothepopulationexplosioninfact

is the way the populations manage the Earth’s resources. McLeish argues that there is

overwhelming evidence that human activities such as use of fossil fuels, contamination ofwater

sources, clearing of vegetation cover for habitation and cultivation among others are severely

strainingtheEarth’sresources(ibid).

Additionally, McLeish brings to light insightful distinction between overpopulation and the

populationexplosionorpopulationtsunami.Hearguesthat, if theregionhassufficientresources

foritspopulation,sucharegionisnotconsideredoverpopulated,butifaregion’sresourcesarenot

enoughforhalfthepopulation,thenthatregionisoverpopulatedregardlessoftheregion’ssizeor

populationdensity(ibid).

On theenvironmentalanalysisofpopulation tsunami,Brown,GardnerandHalweil stressed that;

the population had already reached sustainable limits onmany fronts from cropland andwater

unavailabilitytoclimatechangeandunemployment.Rapidpopulationgrowthexacerbatesexisting

population problems, making them evenmore difficult tomanage.While they remain skeptical,

giventhesevereenvironmentalconstraintsbitinginmostdevelopingcountriesinAfricaespecially

thegrowingscarcityofwater,itismostlikelythattheprojectedpopulationgrowthintheseAfrican

countries may actually not materialize. It is however unclear whether lower than predicted

population increasewill be realizeddue to societal choices to reducegrowth, orwhethernature

will impose its constraints like famine, shortage of water and draught among others (Brown,

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Gardner and Halweil 2014: 19- 22). Will the earth tame it’s own aggressor- the mankind? The

answer is in a question- who knows? It is however, worth noting that the atmospheric carbon

dioxide concentration and temperatures are raising. Theworld population has triggered amass

extinctionandtheconsequencesaresevere(Ibid:23).

Ithasbecomeclearin21stcenturythatthepopulationanalysis isdirectly incontactwithclimate

change. Indeed,theworldpopulationTsunamidiscussionshavemajorlyconcentratedaroundthe

environment.McNallinhisanalysisofthe‘rapidclimatechange:causes,consequencesandsolutions’,

startsbyaskingwhytheearthisgettingwarmerandwhatdifferenceitmakes(McNall2016:1-3).

Suchaquestionprovokesanassumptionthat,climatechangeitnow‘ajudicialnotice’-toputitina

lay man’s expression, like everyone knows that there are 7 days in a week. McNall attributes

climate change not only to the increase in carbon emission but also to a greater extent to the

population rapid growth and global economic inequalities. McNall claims further that climate

change caused greatly by global economic inequality andhighpopulation growth if not checked,

will aggravate food insecurity, shortage of clean water and air and consequently severe world

conflicts.

What should be done then? McNall suggests that solutions to address climate change require

addressingpopulationissues,worldincomeinequalitiesandreducingoncarbonemissions(ibid:ix)

Ontheotherside,optimistslikeBaileyinhispublication‘endofdoom:Environmentalrenewalinthe

twentyfirstcentury’,claimthattheenvironmentaldoomsayersareshortofscientificpredictionbut

instead are promoting an ideology-worldview. Bailey describes Ideology as a properly defined

body of doctrines, belief and myths, that actually guide individuals, institutions, or other social

groupsandmovements. ToBailey, theproponentsof“theendoftheworld” areunfocusedwhen

theyclaimthatpopulationgrowthisreachingdisproportionatelevels.Baileyassertsthattheworld

populationwilllikelypeakbutwillbegintofallinthemiddleofthe21stcentury.Asthepopulation

is falling in developed countries, poor countrieswill follow suit as they becomemore andmore

wealthier (Bailey 2015: xvii). In the same way, vegetation cover and forests are world over

recovering.That in fact other than inBrazil and Indonesia,worldwide forests have increasedby

about2%since1990.

Onewouldwishtoimaginethat,Baileyisanisolatedscholarofoptimism.Hehasproponentslike

Kasun- thewriterof ‘thewaragainstpopulation:Theeconomicsandideologyofworldpopulation’.

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Kasunclaimsthatbirthcontrolisanimpositionbytheexpertsofdoomwithunshakablebeliefsof

responsibility and thewisdom tomanage other people’s affairs. Her feminist claim is that child

bearing is a risk-taking and that every parent expects the unforeseeable future disasters. Kasun

adds that experts supporting child controlmethodshave their choices andworld’s familieshave

their choices too (Kasun 1999: 87-89). She argues that, in fact countrieswith higher birth rates

have higher rates of saving and investment than those with lower rates. That in fact the high

unemployment levels in poor countries are not necessarily a result of population bulge, as the

pessimistswouldliketoexplainbutrathertheshiftfromintensiveagriculturetourbanindustrial

economies.Theindustrialeconomiesabsorbsmallerportionsofthepopulationtherebyrendering

many unemployed. She is convinced that the existing problems of unemployment, immigration

crisisarenotduetotheoverpopulationorlackofcapital/povertybutbecauseofbadpoliciesof

developmentplannersthemselves.

Bourne in his publication ‘the end of plenty: the race to feed a crowded world’ finds Bailey’s

optimism cynical and less informed. While Bailey argues there is no famine, Bailey uses food

protestsworldoverintherecentyearsasoneofthesignsofcripplinghumanrace(Bourne2016).

Bourneclaims thatas thepopulationgrowthratecontinues toraise, themouths to feed increase

hencemorestraintotheenvironment.Increasingclimatevolatilityresultingfromhumanbehavior

could at a given time end agriculture and this will have severe consequences on the world

population.Feedingthepopulationofmorethan10billionpeopleattheendof21stcenturywithout

destroying soil,waterbodiesandclimatewillbe themost challengingproblem for thehumanity

(ibid).

Whilstmanyscholarssincetheendofthelastpartofthe20thcenturyprojectedarapidincreasein

world population that would later be referred to as population explosion, other scholars have

become rather controversial. For example, Kuczynski in his Journal article on world population

problems, argued that where as Europe was having dynamic and growing population rates,

populationinAfricaotherthancountriesborderingtheMediterraneanSeawouldremainstagnant.

He adds that, China’s population in 1944 was smaller than it was thirty years before which

grounded a prediction for stagnation (Kuczynski 1944:449).Hemade the sameobservations for

NorthAmericaclaiming that,a rapidpopulationexpansionwashardly tobeexpected.Kuczynski

concludedthatinthebest-casescenariothepopulationoftheworldwouldonlyreach6milliardsof

whicheverypersonintheworldwouldshare2.5acres,whichwouldbetwiceasmuchnecessaryto

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support each person. His only fearwas on the distribution of theworld’s goods to hundreds of

millionswhowouldlackpurchasingpower.

While it is difficult to agreewith Kuczynski’s population stagnation projections (as anymodern

scholarwould), this essay agrees thatdistributionofwealth across individuals and continents is

majorly one of the risks to world security and stability as well as ecological wellbeing in 21st

centuryandtheprecedingcenturies.

Another school of demography has proposed a term for the population change as demographic

transition. According to Lesthaeghe in his article ‘the unfolding story of second demographic

transition’defineddemographictransitionasthedeclineinfertilityandmortalitythatoccurredin

westerncountries.Hegavethedistinctionbetweenthefirstandseconddemographictransitions.

Lesthaeghe argues that his theory of second demographic transition (SDT) stems from two

successive anddistinctmotivations surroundingparenthood. In the first demographic transition,

thedeclineinfertilitywasmotivatedbysentimentalandfinancialinvestmentinthechildwhereas

intheSDT, themotivation isadultself-realizationwithintheroleor the lifestyleof theparentor

fulfilledadult.ThisshiftisalsoproppedupaccordingtoLesthaeghebytheinnovationofhormonal

andotherformsofcontraception(Lesthaeghe2013:211-215).TheotherrootofLesthaeghe’sSDT

wasthatsub-replacementfertilityisnotonlygoingtolastlongerbutalsowillbecomeanintrinsic

featureofarathernewerdemographicregime.Thereisarevisedversionofdemographicchange

herethatpostulatescyclicalfertilityswingsaroundreplacementfertility.Lesthaeghe‘sSDTtheory

grounds itself on Maslow’s preference drift. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs states that greater

economicdevelopmentproducedashiftinconcernsaboutmaterialneedslikesubsistence,shelter,

economic security to a focus on non-material needs such as freedoms, self realization and

recognition (ibid: 213). This accounts for women emancipation that has brought women to

positionsofpowerreplacingtheearlyrolesofwomenasthechildrenbearers.

Somescholarscategorizeddemographictransitionintostages.Holdsworth,Gould,Finney,Marchall

andNorman in their book ‘PopulationandSociety’ claimed that, thepopulationof theworldwill

transition through fourstagesand the fourth is theultimateendof thepopulation journey.They

arguedthat,atstageone-knowntobethepre-transitionstageorpre-industrialsocieties,thereare

high birth rates and high and fluctuating death rates. In such societies, population growth is

negligible since the birth and death rates are in balance; Stage two characterizes the decline in

mortalityalthoughthefertilityremainsashighasatpre-industriallevel.Atstagetwothereisrapid

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populationgrowth;Stagethreecharacterizesadeclineinfertilityrates leadingtoaslowdownin

population;andatthefourthstage,therewillbezerogrowthalbeitatdifferentspeedsinallworld

societies(Holdsworth,Gould,Finney,Marchall&Norman2013:11-15).Theyclaimthat,Europe’s

attainmentofzerogrowth is theendof the journeyortheendofgrowthcycle.Holdsworthetal,

2013emphasizedtherelationshipbetweenfertilityandmortalitybutgaveinsignificantattentionto

theeffectsofmassimmigrationsthatarechangingthewholepopulationequation.

Intheirbookonpopulationandsociety,Holdsworthetal,2013,highlightedReher’sfourprofilesof

global demographic transition. In this publication, Reher argues that, countries in these profiles

depict theclassicdemographic transition though therearevariations in ratesofnatural increase

with higher fertility in North America. Reher claims that, there are forerunners, which include

countriesinEuropeandNorthAmerica:Thentherearefollowers,whichincludesomecountriesin

Asia and North America. In these countries a discernable increase in fertility resulting in more

intensive growth:Reher’s thirdprofile is of trailers,which includes countries inAfrica, Asia and

SouthAmerica.Thisprofileisbroadlysimilartothefollowersbutonlywithaslightdifferenceon

the offset of fertility increase andmortality rates in the trailers: Then lastly, latecomers profile.

CountriesinthisprofileareallfoundinAfricaandtheclassicdemographictransitionpatternisless

evident for countries in the latecomers. There is a greater gap between fertility and mortality

decline,withfertilitydeclineonlydiscernibleinthelateyearsof20thcentury(ibid:17).However,it

remainswithout doubt that demographic transitionmodel according to Rehermay constrain its

ownutilityuniversallyespeciallywhenAfricabecomespartoftheanalysisbecausepopulationmay

constantlycontinueincreasingregardlessoftime.

While there have been perceptions that rapid population growth in the world in the recent

centuriesrelatesto ignorance, lackofaccesstothecontraceptives, irrationalityandapathyofthe

poor especially in the South, Silliman and King claim on the other hand, it could be the fear of

extinctionandaddedthat,whensterilizationandcontraceptiveswerefirst introducedtowomen,

manysawthemasaformofgenocide(SillimanandKing1999:24).SillimanandKingarguethat,

themost fundamental reasons for population growth in the South andpopulation decline in the

North(otherthantheimmigrationinflux)lieintheevolutionofwesternimperialismandindustrial

capitalism.Thereforetheapproachestocontrolthepopulationgrowthanddeclinerequirenuanced

perusalthroughtherelevantcausesofrespectivetrends.

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Yet,totheUSandtheUNthereistimelynecessityfortheuseofcontraceptivesandotherformsof

childbirthcontrol.SolingerandNakachiassertedthat,theUNandtheUSstartedtorecognizethe

choice facing theworldwas eitherpopulation control or disaster. In September1965,UNworld

population conference convened in Belgrade where 835 experts that included statisticians,

demographers,urbanplannersandphysiciansamongotherpopulationexpertsfrom88countries

fortwoweekstodiscussthecourseofactionaimedatcontrollingtheskyrocketingpopulationin

poor countries (Solinger and Nakachi 2016: 67). The 1960s population projects became

increasinglyurgentUSforeignpoliciesasaresponsetotheMalthusiancrisis. Itwasgettingclear

that, although therewereconflictingviewsonbirthcontrolmethodsespecially from thecatholic

church,therewasaseriousneedtorolltheprogramtopreventcatastrophicpopulationbulgethat

wasleadingtheworldtopoverty,famineandclimatechange.

Whatisinterestingintheexistingstateofknowledgeregardingworldpopulationproblems?

WhatlessonsdoestheUNlearn?

Tostartwith, the literatureunanimouslyagreesthatthere isaproblemofpopulationageingand

shrinking in theNorth.However intriguingly,other than ineconomic terms, scholarsdonot find

anyotherproblemwiththeageingcondition.Thescholarsagreeforexamplethat,asmanypeople

age, the taxablebaseandproductioncapacitywill reduce leading to theburdenofsustaining the

welfareoftheageingpopulation.Thiswillleadtohightaxesonthefewworkingpopulationleading

to economic strain and depression. If this is the case, immigrations can always fill in the blank

spaces. What should theUNdo then?Focusmustbegiven toareaofhighpopulationgrowth to

generatequalityandskilledhumancapitaltofillthetaxablebaseintheNorth.Today,immigrations

and refugee influx are just a crisis that is instead seen to be straining the welfare of the host

countriesintheNorth.

FromHoldsworthetalandReher’sdemographictransitionconversation,wesee,thedifferencesin

the levelsofanalysis.Somescholars likeReherprefertousenationstates,as theunitofanalysis

whileotherscholarspreferstouseindividualbehaviorintheanalysisofworldpopulationchange.

Theunitofanalysisisveryvitalineveryformofresearch.Althoughtheunitsofanalysismaydiffer,

theirfindingsarenuancedintheirownrights.TheroleoftheUNintacklingthecomplexpopulation

tsunamiwilldependontheunitofanalysistheyoptfor.SomeUNapproachescanbestate-focused

whileotherscanbeindividual-focused.

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We also not that, theworld population problems are not only a responsibility of the Population

DivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsbutaconcernofalldepartmentsofthe

UN.EnvironmentandpopulationtsunamiarepivotalinallUNdealingswithworldproblemsinthe

21st century and beyond. While the UN Population Division compiles data on population,

contraceptiveuse,worldurbanizationamongothers,socialandculturalanthropologistshavearole

of examining the inherent factors response for humanbehavior in respect to birth controls. The

PoliticalAffairsDepartment andUNDP should continue to thepolitical advocacy for government

action on population control and environment at state level while other UN oganizations

concentrate on other aspects directly related to population change like environment, conflicts

amongothers.

UN peace missions and operations must work to stabilize communities and neutralize conflicts

therebyreducingrisktolivesandimmigrationcrisisintheNorthernstates.Thewarsandconflicts

inAfrica for examplehave remained resilient evenwithUNcommitment topeacekeeping,peace

negotiations, democracy andHumanRights.Why are conflicts resilient? TheUN in conflicts like

Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo and Central Republic has more or less acted like an

observer. A war that lasts more than 30 years is a lost war. The UN has hands-down failed in

Somalia.MoreaggressiveapproachesoughttobedesiredlikestrictarmscontrolinSomalia,Sudan,

Ethiopia andDjibouti. If the Sub-Saharan sub-continent is still engulfed inprotracted armedand

ethnicviolence,therewillnotbeanyotherconstructiveanddevelopment-orienteddiscussionsat

the UN regarding these conflict areas. In Uganda just like in many Sub-Saharan countries, the

defense ministry and Security still dominate the public funding. What should the UN do? In

situationswhere the states have failed (especially in Africa), there are established international

frameworks for action that reduce accusations on international community over violation of

national sovereignty like the responsibility to protect and the human security. Therefore, UN can

nowthaneverthroughsuchframeworksinterveneinallstateaffairsthatdestabilizesecurityand

goodgovernanceinpoorandfailedstates.

Also, the aspect of the relative democracy, accountability, good governance and distribution of

politicalpowerindevelopingcountrieslikeinAfricaisstillagreyareathattheUNmustputmore

focus.ThereisincreasingconcernonpoliticalimpunityinAfrica.Citizensintheselessdeveloped

countries finddifficulties seeking to knowhow state resources aremanaged there by enhancing

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possibilities for lapse or relapse into violence. Subsequently, violence, corruption and income

inequalities have an immediate effect on population and environmental changes in a negative

sense.Thishasbeenone factorresponsible foreconomicrefugee influx fromAfrica todeveloped

countries. It is obvious that corrupt governments do not care about sustainability in areas of

population change, education, environment and health. What can the UN do? The UN should

continuetoengagethegovernmentsandCivilSocietyindevelopingcountriesthroughitsAgencies

liketheUNDPtopromoteaccountableandtransparentgovernance.Politicalandeconomicstability

in the South will both limit refugee influx to the North as well as naturally control population

growth.

Through its humanitarian and development activities, the UN has diverse and interconnected

activities that cut across all population tsunami challenges ranging from peace and conflict

management, environment, demography, economics and development, health, education and

gender considerations. This essay suggests amulti-dimensional approach to population tsunami

through theUN’s diverse agencies. Overall, It is no longer the role of the pure demographers to

determinegoodpracticesforsustainabledevelopmentbutratheracollectionofactors.

AdistinctionshouldbemadeclearbetweenwhattheUNcandoandwhattheUNhasthecapacity

todo.Somanyscholarshaveblunderedatgivingpolicyrecommendationsthatarefarfromreach

fortheUNasaworldpolicingorganization.Theproblemsofoverpopulationandassociatedissues

andageingsocietiesaredeeplyentrenchedincomplexandintertwinedfactorsthatareinherentin

respective societies. Therefore, the UN may not have the capacity to completely change the

population situation on its own. As we speak, the UN platforms are awash with a myriad of

environmentaldiscussionsbutonground,thepoorcommunitiescontinuetocutdownforestsand

clearwetlandsandothervegetationcover.Whyisthishappening?Thisishappeningbecausethere

isadiscrepancybetweentheoryandpractice.TheStakeholdersintheUNplatformsarealsoaware

that, where as the poor communities need to shift from use of wood to other environmental

friendlysourcesofenergy,suchalternativesourcesofenergyarestillunaffordable.Also,whilethe

UNistirelesslyspearheadingthepopulationgrowthcontrols,someleadersinAfricaunfortunately

highly believe that the continent is still under-populated and that a bigger internalmarkets and

workforcewill help boost their economies.Uganda’s PresidentMuseveni for example said in his

speech to the Members of Parliament that, he is not worried about the population explosion,

because it is a great resource- sighting the example of China’s population growth and economic

15

prosperity(Rice:2006).Butonthepositivenote,theUNcanuseitscapacitytopushpopulationon

the development agenda of Sub-Saharan governments. Also, UN should facilitate effective

communicationofinternationalpopulationstabilizationforactionatnationalandlocalcommunity

levels.Theexplanationofcourseofactionmustbemadeclearlyregardingthestabilizationofworld

populationgrowth.

Relatedtotheabove, theproblemwithpopulationexplosion isnot thegrowthpersay,butrapid

and unplanned growth. Population tsunami is not only about numbers of people but also the

implications of the population growth rates on the provision of social services such as housing,

food,healthcareandemployment. It isobviousthat,growthhasbeenanaturalprocess inwhich

continuityofallanimalsincludinghumansisguaranteed.Whereasthegrowthshouldbenatural,it

must correlate with other important variables such as the population distribution and age

structuresaswell as the resources tomake thesurvivalpossible.This thereforecalls for serious

worldgovernments’policiestoimprovethequalityofthepopulationthanmaintainingthenatural

growth trends like we are witnessing in Sub-Saharan Africa. UN has a role of persuading

governmentsinAfricatostartlookingatpopulationgrowthasathreattohumansurvival.

Also, the UN anthropologists ought to fast-track the cultural factors that continue to facilitate

populationgrowth inSub-Saharancountries.Mostcommunities inAfricaareChristiansandhave

deeplyentrenchedsentimentsonissueslikeabortion.Whereastherearemanyearlypregnancies

amongyounggirls,abortionisnotpartofthesolutionstounwantedpregnanciesinthesesocieties.

Among Christian communities, abortion remains ungodly. The law also condemns abortion as a

criminal act. Further research is not only needed for UN policy analysis but also for further

engagementoflocalcommunitiesonalternativestounwantedearlypregnancieslikesafeabortion

anduseof contraceptives.ChambersandHumble indicate that, thecurrentnumberofunwanted

pregnancieswas estimated to be around eightymillionpeople on theplanet at the timeof their

publication in 2012 which is roughly the equivalent of annual world population growth rate

(ChambersandHumble2012:34-38).Byimplication,effectivehandlingofunwantedpregnancies

willpotentiallycausestabilityofpopulationgrowth.

ItalsoremainscoretotheUNthatfemaleeducationisessentialasfarasstabilizationofpopulation

growth in developing countries is concerned. Female-focused education and empowerment is a

perfectapproachtoreduce fertilityrates.Studiesshowthat,womenwhocompletetheeducation

16

spanandgetcareers,tendtohavereducedfertilitythanthosethatdropoutofschoolatanearly

age.Thereforeprojects that keep girls in schools shouldbe the core ofUN function.This canbe

channeledthroughUNICEFandUNWomenamongotherUNplatforms.

UndiscussedyetveryvitalistheUNfunctionsistheUNSecurityCouncilvetoquandary.Wecannot

attempttodiscusstheroleofUNinanyaspectofsustainabilityandcoexistenceproblemswithout

tacklingtheproblemssurroundpowerattheUNSC.Therehasbeenaveryserioussuddeninfluxof

refugees. This refugee crisis has consumed the whole international attention. UNSC members

should change the veto rule. Veto politics still sounds the tunes of League of Nations cold war

politics.21stcenturyshouldnurturedemocraticreformsintheUNSCvetoing.IftheUNisvotingfor

stabilization in conflictingnations, themajority vote should countnot the singleminority states.

Peace (absence of physical violence) is certainly a fundamental pillar for sustainability. Conflicts

alwaysdominatethepublicdiscourseandmediasubsequentlyovershadowingpopulationgrowth,

sustainability,climatechangeandotherpopulationconcerns.

TheUNcooperationwithotherInternationalagenciesishighlydesired.Theintra-agencywithinthe

UN like United Nations Population Fund, The UNHCR, UNICEF, HABITAT, OCHA, UNEP, World

Health Organization (WHO), World Food Programme (WFP) and others, and inter-agency

internationalorganizationsconcernedwithpopulationandsustainabilitysuchastheWorldBank

andInternationalMonitoryFund.Thereisalreadyanestablishedintraandinter-AgencyStanding

Committee.Throughthisintraandinter-agencyco-ordination,theUN’sworkissimplified.Theco-

ordination also minimizes unnecessary duplication of humanitarian and development activities.

Efficiencyandeffectivenessaswell aseasy resourcemobilizationare thepotentialopportunities

associatedwiththisco-ordination.Thiscoordinationintheendaddressesallthependingissuesof

populationthataredirectlyorindirectlyresponsibleforpopulationtsunami.

Conclusion

The UN today stands at the crossroads in the population dilemma. On one continuum are

developingcountrieswhosepopulationisliterallybulgingtounsustainablelevelsanddeservingof

controls;andthenthedevelopedcountriesstrugglingwithlowfertility,highageingratesandthe

refugee inflow on the other. The population issue in both sides (South and North) is not only

divergentandemotionalbutalsoposesathreattothefutureoftheworld’ssurvival.Surprisingly,

the North on one hand is advocating for population growth control for developing countries

17

becausethepopulationgrowthislikelytoleadtoaseverestrainontheenvironment,whilemany

countries in the North are tirelessly looking forways to increase childbirths like in Europe and

Japan.ThisisironicalbutremainsacoreresponsibilityoftheUN.

Itisnowclearthatthepopulationexplosionisnolongeraphenomenafordiscussionbutrathera

part of action plan of the UN, nation-states, researchers and other organizations responsible for

population, environment and sustainability. Dealing with the population tsunami should be

pluralisticinnatureandthereforenotlimitedtotheUNfunction.TheUNcanonlyspearheadand

facilitate smooth co-ordination of all programs intended to control the population from further

bulging, fromconflicts(bothstructuralandphysical/armed),andfromfurtherdestructionofthe

environment.

The UN must in collaboration with other international development and humanitarian

organizationscontinuetominimizeorpreventstructuralviolenceintheSouth.Moreeffortsmust

focus on prevention and eradication of poverty and inequalities. In many parts of Sub-Sahara,

peoplecannotsurvivewithoutfoodhandoutsfromdonorslikeWorldFoodProgramme.Thehigh

schooldropoutratesdue topovertyand lackof foodarestilla threat tochildeducation in these

areas.Itremainsevidenttoalaymanthat,peopleexperiencingpovertyandilliteracyhavelimited

ability to not only access modern birth control methods but also mitigate the cultural shackles

associatedwithculturalpractices likepolygamyandhighbirthratesasamethodofgenerational

survival. The picture below speaks volumes of the reality of structural conflicts in the South.

Interestingly,thepeopleinthesepoorruralareasaretoopoortoevenrealizetheyneedanaction

plan to reverse theundesirable conditions they are faced. This Picturedepicts the livelihoods in

mostruralpoorcommunitiesinSub-Saharansub-continent.

PhototakenfromNorthernUgandain2017byafriend

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TheothercoreroleoftheUNandassociatedpartnersindevelopmentandhumanitariansupportin

addressingstructuralviolence intheSouth ishealthsector.UN,WHO,UNICEF,UNHCRandother

partnersmustcontinuetofostereliminationofhealthproblemslikeHIV/AIDS,Ebola,Malaria,and

reproductive-relatedmortalitiesaswellaschildmortality.This increasescertaintyofparenthood

andsubsequentlyreducesfearofchildlessnesscommoninAfricantraditionalsocieties.Asaresult,

parentswillbeconfidenttogivebirthtochildrenthenactuallycansupporttherebyreducingthe

populationbulge.ItisalsoobviousthatdiseaseslikeAIDSandEbolahaveravagedfamiliesinSub-

SaharanAfricaleadingtohighlevelsoforphanedchildrenthathaveintheendbecomevulnerable

toilliteracyandthewholecycleofdisadvantaged-ness.

Initsdealingswithstructuralviolencelikepoverty,illhealth,illiteracyandfamineinSub-Saharan

Africa, the UN and associated partners directly tackle the environmental degradation associated

withprimitivelifestylessuchasbushburning,useofwoodsastheonlysourceofenergy,andpoor

agriculturalmethodsthathaveledtocompleteclearanceofvegetationcover.

Also,environmentalrestorationmustremainatthecenterofanyUNworldpopulationpolicy.The

Northmust continue topaya taxongreenhousegasemissions tohelppromotepolicies through

environmentalists thataimatsustainabilitysuchasmassiveafforestationandprovisionofcheap

sourcesofenergytodevelopingworld.Thiswillpotentiallyreducethecatastrophicglobalwarming

and adverse climate change thatwe are alreadywitnessing in uncertain pattern ofweather and

droughtsinSub-SaharanAfricaandincreaseinsealevelsaswellascontinuedlossofbio-diversity.

Also,carefulattentiontogendershouldbethecoreoftheUNandthepartners.Here,activitiesto

empower women, keep girls in school, prevent violence against women, help youth access

contraceptivesandotherbirthcontrolmethodswitheaseaswellaspreventearlymarriageswill

obviouslyhelpreducefertilityratessignificantly.Also,womenshouldhavetherighttoabortionas

well as access to quality medical attention for the women who prefer abortion of unwanted

pregnancies.ThehighbirthratesespeciallyinAfricaarearesultofunwantedpregnancies.TheUN

throughitsorganizations,departmentsandpartnersmustcontinuepromotinggenderadvocacyin

developing countries. TheUN is alreadydoing someworkon gender in conflict areas and inUN

service,we only hope that 21st centuryUNworksmore vigorouslywith other development and

humanitarianorganizationstoeasecoverageoftheworld’seconomicallydesperatecountries.

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Preventingandeliminatingofthelapseandrelapseintodirectorarmedconflictsinfragilestatesin

theSouthisalsoatthecoreoftheUNfunction.TheUNnotonlycontinuestoworkinpeacekeeping,

peacebuilding,andpeace-negotiationsinconflictregionslikeinAfricabutisalsobuildingcapacity

in areas of security formember states providing peacekeepers and otherUNmissions. The only

problemisthat,aprolongedwarlikeawarlikeinSomaliaisasignofafailedinterventionbyUN

andAfricanUnion.MoreoffensiveattempttoendthedirectviolenceisanissuetheUNmustfocus

on.Uninformedcritiquesoffull-burstinterventionhoweverclaimthat,theUNhasnoresourcesto

handleexpensivemissions.ButasAndersonarguedinherbook ‘donoharm:howaidcansupport

peaceorwar’, ifyoucannotsignintotheconflictinterventionwiththecapacitytoneutralizethe

condition,trynottodomoreharmbyprolongingthewar.Andersonarguesthat,inwarslikethatin

Somalia, warlords gain power over both the land and the people and the resources. The social

cohesion in the broader society is lost to thievery and lawlessness (Anderson 2001: 15). The

prolonged wars also have severe impact on demographic reforms. Where prolonged wars

significantlyreducepopulation,ithasnotbeenfoundanappropriatemethodofpopulationcontrol.

Infactmorepeoplegivebirthtoreplacethoselostinthewar.

On thepopulationmobility,whereasmass immigrations in theNorthbypeople fromdeveloping

worldarealreadyaconcernasonewouldputit-theinfluxofimmigrantsandrefugeesisastrainto

the socialwelfareof thenationals-high levels of braindrainhavebeen registered indeveloping

countries.Thishasincreasedfascismandracismwithassociateddiscriminationandxenophobiain

thereceivingcountriesespeciallyinEuropeandUS.WhatshouldtheUNdo?Likestatedabove,the

UN must enter into committed partnerships with other humanitarian, development and

environment international organizations in order to create suitable conditions for habitation of

developingcountries.Thiswillsignificantlyfacilitateconsentedmovementofneededskilledlabor

totheNorthwithlimitedxenophobia,economicdiscriminationandracism.

The UN’s role in the ageing North also can be sighted in its involvement in the settlement and

integrationofimmigrantsthatcanbeofgreatimportancetoEuropeinthenearfutureintermsof

supplementingtheworkforceinthereceivingcountries.Poorly integratedimmigrants, increasing

fascistsentiments,economicdiscriminationofimmigrantsandrefugeesmaysparkmoreidentity-

based violence that may continue to destabilize the peace and security in receiving developed

countries.

20

Consciousandcarefulstepsto tackleageingshouldbetaken.Whereasweagreethatageingand

shrinking population is likely to push developed countries into serious economic problems like

economic recession, the population of the world will find discriminate birth control policies on

demography in the south a source of 21st century social conflict. It is going to be difficult to

implementpopulation control strategies in theSouthwhile thePolicies in theNorthareopen to

fertility rate increase. In this dilemma, theUN, other humanitarians and environmentalistsmust

foster policies that increase awareness on low fertility rates in the developingworld at country,

community and individual family levels. The overarching North-based values will lack self-

ownership credibility and applicability as it has been with international assistance all over the

world.

Therealsohasbeenageneralcriticismofpracticalityoftheoriesandresearchconclusionsinmany

social science-related studies including UN activities. The conclusions are always smart and

informed but the application on ground is often unrealistic. The UN has very good policies on

almostallhumanitarianprogramsbuttheresultsremainvagueandinvisible.Inthefieldofpolitical

advocacyUNDPistryingtoshowvisibilityinareasofdemocracy,goodgovernance,development,

humanrights.However,moreeffortsarestilldesiredtostampoutastringofdictatorsplundering

mosteconomiesinAfricawithseverecorruptionlevelsandviolationoffreedomsandrights.

ThisessayisnotinanywaysupposedtobetheworkingorpolicypaperfortheUNbutitprovides

thecontradictionsthathavedominatedtheworlddemographyandthequesttosolvetheintriguing

puzzlesofpopulationchallengesin21stcentury.Itemphasizesthoughthatthetimeisnowforthe

UNtostartwalkingthetalk.IftheUNisreallyaPeaceorganization,itmusttackletheUNSCandits

ambiguities.Theright tovetoshouldbeconfinedto themajorityof thememberstatesandnota

singlememberstate(as it isnow). If theUNSCagreesunanimouslyto intervene inaconflictand

endseveresufferingofthecitizens,asinglenationshouldnotstopthedecision.Otherwise,ifwhat

ishappeningwiththevetorightsremains,theUNwillremainanobserverwhiletheworldremain

torninwarsbetweentheUS,RussiaandChinatomentionbutafew.

21

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