B SAI KUMAR SWAMYPGPM, I IM-BANGALORE

Current Affairs Update -International

Agenda-1 Japan Economic Woes Lost Decades Abenomics

Hong Kong Pro-democracy protests

China Territorial disputes in

East China Sea South China Sea

Thailand Shinawatras Army Unrest Elections

Myanmar Sri Lanka Elections Implications

North Korea Nuclear State Personality Cults Rogue State

Iran Nuclear Status Sanctions

Japan

Meiji Restoration - Nuclear war - Economic powerhouse High Tech Export focussed - High Savings Rate - GDP Asset Price Bubble 1985-1989

Lost decade 90s Increase in Interest Rates - Zombie Banks - Low growth rates Fiscal Stimulus - Government Debt More than 220% of GDP

Population declines Demographic Inversion - Growing Greys Declining Support Ratio Issues with marriage

India & China Womens roles (oniyome) Immigration Sustainable resource use

(Bloomberg) Political Instability

Abenomics

Shinzo Abe Elected in 2006 Resigns in 2007 PM again in 2012

Abenomics Three Arrows 1st Arrow Monetary Policy 2nd Arrow Fiscal Policy 3rd Arrow Structural Reforms Role of BoJ

Inflation Target 2% Public Works Tax Incentive for Companies

Massive QE

Three Arrows

Three Arrows of Abenomics

Three Arrows & the Shrine Effect

Positive Cycle Japan Economy

Hong Kong Pro-democracy Protests

Status of Hong Kong? British Colony 99 year lease 1st July 1898 Prospered under the British To revert to China in 1997

Relationship with China? One country 2 systems High degree of autonomy except Foreign & Defence Affairs Own legal system Free speech & Assembly HK mini constitution called the Basic Law Chief Executive Elected by 1200 member Election Committee

What has changed? Chinas promise of direct elections in 2017 Aug 2014 Voters to have a choice of 2-3 candidates selected by NC Current Election Committee to form NC 50% of NC support required

Umbrella Movement

Fears China will use NC to screen out candidates it disapproves of HK will lose the freedom it enjoys turn into mainland

Who is leading the Pro-democracy debate? Occupy Central Hong Kong Federation of Students - Scholarism

Umbrella movement Adam Cotton on Twitter Non violent civil disobedience Street protests Occupy Government buildings

Is there a Pro-China movement? YES Silent Majority for HK; Caring HK Power

Why is China worried? Xinjiang Tibet HK - Tiananmen

Chief Executive Leung Chun-Ying

Election Committee

One Country Two Systems

Sea of Umbrellas Alex Chow & Joshua Wong

Movement in Pics

Movement in Pics

Occupy Central

What angered China? Universal Suffrage

Dont miss the moment!!

Other Issues & Pro-China Protests

East China Sea - Disputes Where East China Sea

Senkaku Diaoyu Tiaoyutai Socotra Rock

What EEZ

China South Korea and Japan What about Taiwan?

UN Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) East China Sea is 360 Nm wide 200Nm is the EEZ (370Km)

Why Fishing grounds Shipping Route Discovery of Natural Resources

Chunxiao Gas Field

EEZ World Chart

EEZ Overlaps & Disputes

Senkaku

Archipelago 5 islands & 3 Rocky crags Senkaku Diaoyu Tiaoyutai Rich fishing grounds Shipping Oil reserves Fishing Agreements Senkaku outside of Chinese EEZ

Controlled by Japan since 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki Terra Nullius 1945-1972 USA after WWII Treaty of San Francisco

China disputes Terra Nullius status Returned as was done of all conquests in 1945 US Japan Security Treaty

Japan purchases remaining 3 islands in 2012 Shinzo Abe vows to defend Senkaku at all costs

Overlapping EEZ - Senkaku

Disputed Areas

Air-Zone Demarcation

Senkaku

Senkaku - Japan Taiwan

Face-Off

Socotra Rock

Socotra Ieodo/Parangdo Suyan Rock 149Kms from South Korea 287Kms from China China stakes claim after UN changes in EEZ in 1996

Korea has built the Ieodo Ocean Research Station Importance Korean Myths Discovery of Natural Gas & Oil Fishing grounds

Current Status Korea has included it in its EEZ ADIZ status over Socotra by Korea and China

Japan has maintained a neutral stance on it Potential flashpoint on account of ADIZ Jeju Naval Base

Ieodo

Other claimants!

South Korea Dokdo Takeshima

46 Acres Natural resources Fishing

Tsushima Naming of Sea of Japan

North Korea Taiwan Methane Hydrates

Methane Hydrates

Dokdo / Takeshima

South China Sea - Disputes Two broad disputes Paracel Spratlys

South China Sea - Disputes

South China Sea - Disputes

Paracel

Paracel Vietnam & Taiwan & China

Amphitrite (North) China Crescent (South) South

Vietnam Pre 1974

1957 Transfer to China China claims Paracel

1974 Vietnam attacks China responds

Occupies entire Paracel Post 1974

Vietnam Unification Claims afresh

Spratlys Claimants China Taiwan Philippines Brunei Vietnam Malaysia

Reasons Hydrocarbons Fishing Shipping

Current Status China, Philippines 8 each Vietnam 29 & Malaysia 5 Brunei 2 & Taiwan 1

2011 Agreement INS Airavat Taiwan, Tibet, South China Sea

Scarborough Shoal Claimants China Phillippines Taiwan

China 870Km

Philippines 210 Km EEZ

Reason Fishing primarily Hydrocarbons

Scarborough Shoal

Scarborough Shoal

Dispute Meter

China territorial disputes China Neighbors 14 (land) 8 (Sea) Many disputes over land & sea Taiwan (Republic of China)

Chinese Civil War KMT CPC Paracel islands Vietnam Battle of Paracel Islands 1974 Spratlys Vietnam, Phillipines, Brunei, Malaysia

1968 Oil discovery Bigger than Kuwait North Korea

Yalu River India

Aksai Chin South Tibet - Arunachal Pradesh

TAR Tibet Annexed in 1950 Autonomous status Dalai Lama China Western Development

70% Area 30% Population 20% GDP Mongolia

Thailand Monarchy King Bhumibhol

History 1932 Coup - Military rule Constitution redrafting - 1997

2001 Elections Thaksin Shinawatra - Popular

2006 Deposed 2008-2011 Unrest Yingluck Shinawatra - 2011

Military Coup 22nd May 2014 Why? Anti-Govt protests Lack of confidence Prayuth Chan Ocha

Prayuth Chan Ocha Yingluck Shinawatra

Myanmar Elections

Myanmar (1989) Burma Oil & Natural Gas 1962 Coup Ne Win Human rights violations

Genocide Child soldiers Rape Slavery Trafficking Curbs on Free Speech Aung San Suu Kyi Aung Sans daughter - Fighting for democracy Freedom from Fear Speech

"It is not power that corrupts, but fear. Fear of losing power corrupts those whowield it and fear of the scourge of power corrupts those who are subject to it.

1988 8888 UprisingNational League for Democracy - House arrest 1989 1990 General Elections Won by NLD Nullified by military junta 1991 Nobel Peace Prize

2007 Saffron Revolution 1st April 2012 By-elections NLD wins 43 of 46 seats

Sri Lanka - Elections Incumbent Mahinda Rajapakse SLFP 6 yr term Max 2 terms Constitutional Changes 2 term limit removed

Opponent Maithripala Sirisena Common Opposition candidate

Result Sirisena victory 51% of vote Pro-India

Media Abuse - Violence Misuse of state resources Indian Influence Attempted Coup

Elections

Sahodara Samagama - Family Nepotism Sahodara Samagama Brothers Organization

Chamal Rajapaksa Speaker

Basil Rajapaksa Brains Minister Eco. Devpt. & Adviser

Gotabaya Rajapaksa Brawn Defence Secretary

Namal Rajapaksa 29years Son of Mahinda MP Hambanthota

Nishantha Wickremasinghe Chairman SL Airways

North Korea - 1 Political Korean empire ruled peninsula in 18th-19th century Japanese occupation 1910-1945 Division of peninsula into North Korea & South Korea Korean War -1950-1953

China UN USA Unification of country 38th parallel Single party state

Juche - man is the master of everything and decides everything Hereditary Dictatorship Total Control Zones Camp 22 Personality Cult

Kim Il Sung Chosen by Stalin - KPA Tenure 6 SK; 7 Russian; 10 US; 14 UK; 21 Japan Communism East Germany; Romania; Albania Collapse of Communism Isolation of Nkorea Great Leader Son of the Nation - Eternal President

North Korea - 2

North South Relations Demilitarized Zone Incursion Tunnels

2000 Peaceful Reunification NorthSouth Joint Declaration Kim Dae Jung - Kim Jong-Il Sunshine Policy Nobel Peace Prize 2000 for Kim Dae Jung

Ended in 2006 over Nuclear Tests Declared failure in 2010 Cheonan incident 2010

Nuclear Power Economy Shortages - State Controlled Cuba & North Korea Famine in 1997 Deaths of millions Kim Jong-Un Calls for lifting sanctions

Personality Cult

Personality Cult

Iran Nuclear Stand0ff Nuclear Program Atoms for Peace Dwight Eisenhower in 1953 Signed NPT in 1968 Allows IAEA inspections

Peaceful Energy Program Shah plans for a nuclear Iran Disbanded in 1979 by Ayatollah after Iranian revolution

Nuclear Supply cut Bushehr reactor 50-85% complete Nuclear Program Restarted Cooperation with Argentina South Africa China Pakistan

Persepolis 1990 Russian Cooperation 1992 Invites IAEA inspectors Revives Bushehr project 1995

Natanz & Arak IAEA seeks access to facilities EU3 2006 Iran enriches Uranium 2010 Iran is a Nuclear State Sanctions Oil Embargo - Conflict

Annexures

Japan - Exports

Savings Rate & GDP

Japan - Population

Demographic Inversion

Population Pyramid India & China

Reasons for not marrying

Growing Greys

Support Ratio

Juche Tower Kim Il Sung

Personality Cult

Camp 22 NASA image Korea

Tunnels & DMZ

Cheonan

Chinas Territorial Disputes

China - Taiwan

Taiwan

Chiang Kai-Shek

Paracel Islands

Spratlys

Yalu North Korea

India Aksai Chin

McMahon - TAR

TAR

Mt. Everest

Qinghai Tibet Railway

China Western Development

Burma Land of Pagodas

Aung San Suu Kyi

Protests by Monks

Saffron Revolution

Atoms for Peace

Shah Plan 23 Nuclear plants Target year 2000 US aid

"Petroleum is a noblematerial, much toovaluable to burn ... Weenvision producing, assoon as possible, 23,000megawatts of electricityusing nuclear plants.

Iran Nuclear Sites

Women Scientists EU3 Yellowcake

Arak - Natanz

Natanz

Irans Oil Exports

Straits of Hormuz Choke Point

Nuclear States