V O L U M E 6 2 NUMBER 2 , 2007

ICAOJ O U R N A L

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SAFETY IMPROVEMENTSPLAY A VITAL ROLE

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MARCH/APRIL 2007VOL. 62, NO. 2

ICAO JournalThe magazine of the International Civil Aviation Organization

FEATURES

7 China focused on safety improvements in spite of rapid industry growthFaced with explosive growth in traffic volume and lagging infrastructure, Chinais embracing management principles that will help ensure it can meet ambitioussafety targets by 2010 …

13 While CFIT record has improved markedly, certain issues have also come to lightSeveral low-cost but crucial measures can be taken by stakeholders to reduce thelikelihood of false EGPWS warnings or, more seriously still, the system’s failureto provide a valid warning …

16 Ground-based wind shear detection systems have become vital to safe operationsVarious warning systems deployed at the most vulnerable locations across theUnited States provide varying levels of protection against wind shear, withcollocation of certain systems offering the most effective safety solution …

21 Safety data integration can lead to better understanding of riskBy integrating safety data from different sources and applying a risk model, itshould be possible to build a more complete safety picture that highlights thoseimprovements that can deliver the greatest benefit …

23 Air cargo security regime strengthened by changes to known-consignor systemThe independent validation scheme for accrediting known consignors has workedwell since it was established by the United Kingdom in 2003, and further changesintroduced last year will help minimize the vulnerability of cargo …

24 Runway incursions pose a risk at every airport, but accidents are not inevitableAware that effective safety programmes represent the difference betweendisaster and just another day of routine operations, ICAO has assembledpractical tools and educational material that can assist with establishingrunway safety initiatives …

27 State-of-the-art data collection system brings benefits to stakeholdersFollowing successful implementation of a system for collecting and disseminatingair transport data electronically, Canada is now ready to expand its programmebeyond passenger data to air cargo activity, and perhaps also to GA operations …

UPDATE29 Experts offer guidance on how to include aviation in emissions trading schemes

• Symposium heightens worldwide awareness of need for performance framework• Annex amendments propose operational use of the public Internet• New agreement formalizes cooperation with the CBD Secretariat• ICAO-Singapore fellowship training programme extended to 2009

COVER (Photo courtesy of the CAAC)

China has been refashioning its approach to safety to ensure a continuation of thedownward trend in the aircraft accident rate (page 7). Among changes shaping Chinesecivil aviation today are the fostering of a safety culture based on accountability, a shiftto proactive safety management, an effort to ensure compliance with internationalstandards, and strengthened oversight.

WWW.ICAO.INT

THE ICAOCOUNCIL

PresidentROBERTO KOBEH GONZÁLEZ

1st Vice-PresidentI. M. LYSENKO

2nd Vice-PresidentDr. A. SIPOS

3rd Vice-PresidentJ. E. ORTIZ CUENCA

SecretaryDr. TAÏEB CHÉRIFSecretary General

Argentina – D. O. Valente

Australia – S. Clegg

Austria – S. Gehrer

Brazil – V. Elyseu Filho

Cameroon – T. Tekou

Canada – L. A. Dupuis

Chile – G. Miranda Aguirre

China – T. Ma

Colombia – J. E. Ortiz Cuenca

Egypt – S. Elazab

Ethiopia – T. Mekonnen

Finland – L. Lövkvist

France – J.-C. Chouvet

Germany – Dr. K. Kammann-Klippstein

Ghana – K. Kwakwa

Honduras – A. Suazo Morazán

Hungary – Dr. A. Sipos

India – Dr. N. Zaidi

Italy – F. P. Venier

Japan – T. Araki

Lebanon – H. Chaouk

Mexico –

Mozambique – D. de Deus

Nigeria – Dr. O. B. Aliu

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Peru – M. V. Malqui

Republic of Korea – G. Shin

Russian Federation – I. M. Lysenko

Saint Lucia – H. A. Wilson

Saudi Arabia – S. A. R. Hashem

Singapore – K. P. Bong

South Africa – M. D. T. Peege

Spain – L. Adrover

Tunisia – M. Chérif

United Kingdom – M. Rossell

United States – D. T. Bliss

ICAO JOURNAL4

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ICAO Journal

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Promoting the Development of International Civil AviationThe International Civil AviationOrganization, created in 1944 to promotethe safe and orderly development of civilaviation worldwide, is a specialized agency ofthe United Nations. Headquartered in Montreal,ICAO develops international air transport standardsand regulations and serves as the medium for cooperation in all fields of civil aviation among its 190 Contracting States.

ICAO CONTRACTING STATES

5NUMBER 2, 2007

THE LATEST long-term forecast released by ICAO in Aprilestimates that passenger traffic on scheduled airline services,

measured in terms of passenger-kilometres performed, willgrow at the average annual rate of 4.6 percent over a 20-yearperiod ending in 2025. International traffic is expected toincrease at 5.3 percent per annum, outpacing domestic trafficgrowth of 3.4 percent annually.

From a regional perspective, the airlines of the Middle Eastand the Asia/Pacific regions are expected to experience thehighest growth in passenger traffic, at 5.8 percent per annumthrough to 2025, followed by the airlines of the African and theLatin American/Caribbean regions, predicted to grow at 5.1and 4.8 percent per year, respectively.

Passenger traffic growth on the major international routegroups, with the exception of the intra-North America routegroup, is expected to range from 4.5 to 6 percent per annumthrough to 2025.

World scheduled freight traffic measured in terms of tonne-kilometres performed is forecast to increase at a “most likely”average annual rate of 6.6 percent during the 2005–25 period.International freight traffic is predicted to increase at an aver-age annual growth rate of 6.9 percent, compared with a domes-tic freight traffic growth of 4.5 percent annually.

World scheduled aircraft movements, in terms of aircraftdepartures and aircraft kilometres flown, will double (or groweven more) over the 2005–25 period, and are expected toincrease at average annual rates of 3.6 and 4.1 percent, respec-tively. In 2005, there were over 24.9 million aircraft departuresand 30.8 billion aircraft-kilometres flown.

Future growth of air transport will continue to depend prima-rily on world economic and trade growth and airline cost devel-opments, which are in turn heavily dependent on fuel prices.This growth will also be influenced, however, by the extent towhich the industry faces up to major challenges such as air-port and airspace congestion, environmental protection andincreasing capital investment needs. The shape and size of theair transport system will also be affected by government deci-sions, notably those determining the type and extent of eco-nomic regulation of airlines.

Worldwide air traffic forecasts to 2025 * Data on operations of airlines based in the Commonwealth of Independent States not available for 1985

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

Scheduled services Actual Actual Forecast1985 2005 2025 1985-2005 2005-2025

TOTALPassenger-kilometres (billions) 1 366 3 720 9 180 5.1 4.6Freight tonne-kilometres (millions) 39 813 142 579 510 000 6.6 6.6Passengers carried (millions) 896 2 022 4 500 4.2 4.1Freight tonnes carried (thousands) 13 742 37 660 145 000 5.2 5.5Aircraft-kilometres (millions)* n.a. 30 845 69 040 n.a. 4.1Aircraft departures (thousands)* n.a. 24 904 50 450 n.a. 3.6INTERNATIONAL Passenger-kilometres (billions) 589 2 197 6 225 6.8 5.3Freight tonne-kilometres (millions) 29 384 118 482 452 120 7.2 6.9Passengers carried (millions) 194 704 1 950 6.7 5.2Freight tonnes carried (thousands) 5 884 22 630 110 000 7.0 6.5

Average annualgrowth rate (%)

95 97 99 2001 2003 2005 2015 2025

14 000

12 000

10 000

8 000

6 000

4 000

2 000

0

Pass

enge

r-km

(bill

ions

)

Trends in worldwide scheduled passenger traffic, 1995-2025

HIGH

LOW

95 97 99 2001 2003 2005 2015 2025

650 000

520 000

390 000

260 000

130 000

0

Tonn

e-km

(bill

ions

)

Trends in worldwide scheduled freight traffic, 1995-2025

HIGH

LOW

Europe26.6%

Asia/Pacific35.1%

Asia/Pacific46.1%

Europe19%

NorthAmerica27.2%

NorthAmerica23.5%

LatinAmerica3.2%

LatinAmerica2.4%

Africa 1.6% Africa 1.2%

MiddleEast6.2%

Middle East7.8%

Share of scheduled freight traffic by region, 2005 vs 2025(tonne-kilometres performed)

Europe27%

Asia/Pacific26%

Asia/Pacific32.5%

Europe25.6%

Africa 2.3% Africa 2.5%

MiddleEast4.5%

Middle East5.7%

LatinAmerica4.3%

LatinAmerica4.5%North

America35.9%

NorthAmerica29.3%

Share of scheduled passenger traffic by region, 2005 vs 2025 (passenger-kilometres performed)

2005 2025 2005 2025

Annexes to the Chicago Convention:

• Annex 1 – Personnel Licensing

• Annex 2 – Rules of the Air

• Annex 3 – Meteorological Service for InternationalAir Navigation

• Annex 4 – Aeronautical Charts

• Annex 5 – Units of Measurement to be Used in Air andGround Operations

• Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft

• Annex 7 – Aircraft Nationality and Registration Marks

• Annex 8 – Airworthiness of Aircraft

• Annex 9 – Facilitation

• Annex 10 – Aeronautical Telecommunications

• Annex 11 – Air Traffic Services

• Annex 12 – Search and Rescue

• Annex 13 – Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation

• Annex 14 – Aerodromes

• Annex 15 – Aeronautical Information Services

• Annex 16 – Environmental Protection

• Annex 17 – Security: Safeguarding International CivilAviation Against Acts of Unlawful Interference

• Annex 18 – The Safe Transport of Dangerous Goods by Air

This CD-ROM contains a complete set of Annexes to theConvention on International Civil Aviation (ChicagoConvention). The 18 Annexes to the Convention containprovisions, including standards and recommended practices,for international civil aviation.

U.S. $1,600 for the purchase of a single copy(Order No. AN)

U.S. $2,000 for the purchase of a single copy with a one-yearAmendment service (Order No. AN/YR)

Available in English only.

The publication is also accessible through ICAO eSHOP,a web-based information service offering online accessto various sets of ICAO documentation for an annualsubscription fee. A free preview is available at www.icao.intby clicking on ICAO Publications, ICAO eCommerce, ICAOeSHOP and entering access code: GUESTguest

U.S. $1,200 for an annual subscription for online webaccess, via ICAO eSHOP (Order No. AN-E)

For more information or to place an order, contact:International Civil Aviation OrganizationDocument Sales UnitTelephone: +1 (514) 954-8022Fax: +1 (514) 954-6769E-mail: sales@icao.int

Annexes to the Convention on International Civil Aviation

ICAOElectronic publications

DESPITE the rapid expansion ofChina’s aviation sector in recentyears, long-term safety data show

a general improvement in the level ofsafety. While this is encouraging, China’syearly traffic growth is projected in dou-ble-digit percentages, and the challengenow is to implement measures that willyield still lower accident rates. This isessential in order to maintainpublic confidence in the airtransport system, and ensurethat industry growth can be sus-tained over the long term.

During the decade that endedin 2005, China experienced 32fatal aircraft accidents, of whichnine involved aircraft engagedin commercial services. In all,there were 482 fatalities over the10-year period, with general avi-ation (GA) accounting for 23accidents and 41 fatalities. Flightcrew performance was cited as asignificant factor in well overhalf of the fatal accidents, whilemechanical causes were foundto be significant in 25 percent ofthe investigations.

Encouragingly, the number ofaccidents experienced in the lasthalf of the 1996-2005 decade was47.6 percent fewer than in the precedingfive-year period. The accident rate in Chinaaveraged 0.649 hull losses per million flighthours over the entire 10-year period, whichcompares favourably with an averageworldwide rate of 0.999 hull losses per mil-lion flight hours during the same time span.The Chinese rate, however, remains con-siderably higher than the correspondingratio in the United States, which is home to

AVIATION SAFETY

China focused on safety improvementsin spite of rapid industry growth

Faced with explosive growth in traffic volume and lagging infrastructure, China is embracing management principles that will help ensure it can meet ambitious safety targets by 2010

WANG CHANGSHUN

GENERAL ADMINISTRATION OF

CIVIL AVIATION OF CHINA

the largest aviation industry in the world.This is significant, considering that China’sair transport industry is now ranked sec-ond in the world, with 25.8 billion tonne-kilometres performed in 2005, not includ-ing the Hong Kong and Macao SpecialAdministrative Regions (SARs).

In terms of incidents, during the 1996-2005 period a total of 1,147 werereported throughout China, with thevast majority of these incidents(1,040) related to commercial airtransport operations. In terms of therate of incidents per 10,000 flight

hours and per million departures, encourag-ingly, this trend, too, has been downward.

Of the air transport incidents reportedduring the 10-year period, 307 (29.5 per-cent) involved mechanical problems; 296 (28.5 percent) were related to weather;and in 267 cases (25.7 percent), flight crewperformance played a significant role.

China has been refashioning itsapproach to safety to ensure the trend in

the aircraft accident rate continues down-ward. For one, it has adopted safety man-agement system (SMS) principles (e.g.air carriers are being required to imple-ment SMS, which is considered the mosteffective way of responding to the needfor results-based supervision with a mini-mum number of safety inspectors).

Among the changes shaping Chinesecivil aviation today are:• the fostering of a safety culture where-by organizations and companies acceptresponsibility for ensuring safety;• a shift to proactive safety managementinstead of reliance entirely on post-acci-dent action;• efforts to ensure compliance withinternational safety standards;

NUMBER 2, 2007 7

Aircraft at busy Shanghai Pudong Airport, and passengers awaiting their flights (top). Thenumber of air passengers in China is expected to reach 270 million in 2010

• a new emphasis on training programmes;• the greater utilization of technologicalsolutions; and• strengthened oversight.

The emphasis on the role of corpora-tions and organizations in upholding safe-ty has helped bolster everyone’s aware-ness of their place in conducting safeoperations. But while individual front-linepersonnel and top-level decision makersmust be concerned with safety, oversee-ing bodies such as the GeneralAdministration of Civil Aviation of China(CAAC) and regional administrationsthat perform oversight are also heldaccountable for safety performance.

Equally important has been a shift toemphasis on proactive management, withthe focus today on lessons learned fromincidents and the analysis of normal oper-ations that can help build an effectivesafety management strategy.

In an international context, the changestaking place in China today are multifac-eted. The first requirement is to graduallypromote and adopt international stan-dards, and ensure qualified personnel andtransport aircraft operators are certified inaccordance with international expecta-tions. Other international obligationsapply with respect to safety evaluationsand audits conducted in China.

The importance of adequate training forall professionals is fully recognized, and inparticular, the fundamental role played byspecialized institutions such as civil avia-tion colleges and universities in properlypreparing personnel for a safe and produc-tive career in aviation. Training pro-grammes for various aviation professionshave been established, and existing pro-grammes upgraded. Relevant laws andregulations now incorporate additionaland more rigorous training requirements.Importantly, the evaluation of the specificskills required for performing highly spe-cialized work has been carried out, and anemployment qualification system has nowbeen set up. Lastly, a safety team, com-prised mainly of operations supervisorsand inspectors, has been set up.

On the technological side, installation ofthe airborne collision avoidance system(ACAS II) and the enhanced ground prox-imity warning system (EGPWS) on alltransport aircraft has been mandated,while on the ground, functions such as

AVIATION SAFETY

short-term conflict alert (STCA) and mini-mum safe altitude warning (MSAW) havebeen added to air traffic control (ATC)radar to reduce the risk of mid-air collisionsor controlled flight into terrain (CFIT).Radar coverage has been expanded byinstalling more radar systems. Proceduresrelated to the transition altitude and toestablishing altimeter settings at civil avia-tion airports have also been updated.

Another innovation welcomed inChina is performance-based navigation(PBN), a concept that encompasses botharea navigation (RNAV) and requirednavigation performance (RNP). An over-all plan to apply PBN is under develop-ment, but RNAV is available in somebusy terminal areas and on remote andoceanic routes, and RNP procedures arenow in use for some airports in moun-tainous Tibet. In addition to providingimportant capacity and operational

improvements, the more precise flightpaths associated with RNP procedurescontribute to safe operations, especiallyat airports surrounded by high terrain.

The monitoring of flight operationsthrough the collection of safety-relatedoperating data is well established in China.At present, more than 90 percent of thecountry’s airline fleet is equipped withsome system of data collection, and 85 per-cent of its airline flights are now monitored.

With the reform of the safety systemin China, the CAAC is taking steps tomeet all of its obligations with respectto managing safety both at home andabroad, while also granting authorityfor the provision of air carrier servicesand air traffic services (ATS). Its pri-mary function, along with regionaladministrations and supervision offices,is to oversee operations from a broadsafety perspective.

8 ICAO JOURNAL

Challenges remainAlthough China is taking steps to

heighten safety, a number of problemsremain to be solved. Among these are:• the shortage of qualified operating per-sonnel;• lack of infrastructure;• scarcity of airspace;• legal and regulatory shortcomings; and• the need for enhanced safety management.

While China’s air transport systemmust expand rapidly to meet the growingdemand for air services, there remains aserious shortage of pilots, mechanics, airtraffic controllers and flight dispatchers.This shortfall of qualified personnelmakes it more difficult to ensure safety,and moreso when there is so much pres-sure to expand services. Rapid growth,when combined with the deficit of quali-fied personnel, can increase the risk toflight safety.

AVIATION SAFETY

Considering the growth of China’s aircarrier fleet, civil aviation infrastructureis not keeping pace. The absence of ade-quate facilities at some airports can havea bearing on safety. There is simply notenough ATC automation, and the lack ofinformation integration and data sharingcan adversely impact safety and air trafficmanagement (ATM) efficiency.

The amount of usable airspace alsoposes a problem. Although China is a largecountry, the amount of airspace that can be utilized by the ATS administrationaccounts for just 20 percent of the total air-space. This curbs flexibility, and thus limitseconomical operation. In addition to fixedarrival and departure routings, radar con-trol functions are also restricted. With thepressure to increase traffic because of thegrowing demand for air services, airspacecongestion can only worsen unless the air-space can be better utilized.

Importantly, certain legal and regula-tory requirements need to be updated sothat they reflect reforms made in thecivil aviation sector, in part because reg-ulations based on old technology are ahindrance to further infrastructuredevelopment. Consistent enforcement inthe field is also wanted: regional admin-istrative and supervisory offices, whileresponsible for safety oversight, do notenforce the regulatory requirements in auniform manner.

Despite China’s recent focus on safetymanagement, there is still a difference inhow safety is managed in China and howit is managed in countries having highlydeveloped aviation sectors. In countrieswith mature air transport industries, safe-ty management is supported by relativelygenerous resources, both in terms oftechnology and funding. By contrast,China manages safety chiefly by issuingadministrative orders.

The influence of culture should not beoverlooked when attempting to managesafety. Most of the world’s civil aircraftare designed and built from a Westernperspective, and it is only natural thattheir operation and management areestablished in this cultural context. Butwhile it may be convenient for a countryto simply adopt the international technol-ogy that goes hand-in-hand with effectivesafety management, it is also importantwhen developing a safety culture torespect the differences that characterizepeople around the world.

Safety goalsIn the coming years, China’s air trans-

port industry will expand in a dramaticfashion. The volume of tonne-kilometresperformed is expected to continue risingby an average of 14 percent annually, toreach 50 billion tonne-kilometres by 2010.At the same time, the number of passen-gers is forecast to grow to 270 millionfrom 138 million in 2005. Meanwhile, theair transport fleet is expected to swell toover 1,500 aircraft by 2010, with some 190civil airports in operation.

NUMBER 2, 2007 9

Airside view of Beijing’s busy airport.Anticipating a double-digit growth rateevery year for the foreseeable future,the CAAC is intent on reducing the aircraftaccident rate to less than 0.30 hull lossesper million hours by 2010

With this anticipated growth in mind,China has set specific safety targets. Theaccident rate needs to decline during the2006-10 period to less than 0.300 hull loss-es for every million hours of flight time.In particular, China intends to reduce thenumber of accidents in GA operations, aswell as the number of accidents on theground, and it is determined to preventany accidents arising from security viola-tions. The objective is to establish a safe-ty level comparable to that of countries

AVIATION SAFETY

having highly developed aviation indus-tries, and not worse than the averagelevel achieved by these countries. Put inanother way, China’s goal is to ensurethat its accident rate is better than theworld average.

To help achieve such goals, China isembracing the concept of organizationalaccountability, a key principle of SMS.While holding organizations accountablefor safe operations, it will vigorously pro-mote safety audits as a means of monitor-

ing progress and will invest inimproved training efforts. Itwill make greater use of safe-ty-related technology and willestablish a new mechanismfor funding safety initiatives.More emphasis will be placedon international cooperation.Finally, China plans to evolve asafety culture that reflects itsnational goals and values.

Every individual who canhave an influence on safety willbe held accountable for theindustry’s performance in thisrespect, in particular execu-tives whose leadership styleand safety-related decisions fil-ter down to front-line person-nel. This goes hand-in-handwith improved monitoring and

analysis of safety data, as well as withenactment of legislation that servesto promote safety.

Safety audits, an important meansof enhancing safety, are to be carriedout in China at three levels. At theinternational level, Universal SafetyOversight Audit Programme (USOAP)audits performed by ICAO highlightthe government’s capacity to overseesafety, primarily through its compli-ance with international standards.The next USOAP audit — the firstunder the new comprehensiveapproach that covers all safety-relatedprovisions in the Chicago Convention— is expected to take place in early2007. Audits to be conducted byChina itself will examine the poten-tial safety hazards faced by thecountry’s aviation industry, and willpressure those audited to addressshortcomings, thereby improvingthe level of safety across the entire

industry. The third type of audit willoccur at the organizational level, andtakes the form of a systematic self-evalua-tion of the organization’s compliance withgovernment regulations and its shoulder-ing of safety responsibilities by usingSMS — the most effective means of man-aging risk. In assuming these responsibil-ities, decision makers must adequatelyaddress all safety-related deficiencies thatcome to their attention.

More than ever, training will play a criti-cal role in the development of China’s airtransport system. No less than 11,000 addi-tional pilots will be required during the2006-10 period, and another 18,000 pilotsare to be recruited in the following five-yearperiod. The main goal of the training sys-tem in the near term is to address the cur-rent shortage of aviation professionals suchas pilots, but also to establish an approachto recruitment that prevents serious short-ages from arising in the future.

A number of programmes will beundertaken to further develop humanresources. One project is concerned withestablishing training regulations andstandards that comply with internationalprovisions. Yet another training initiativewill build teams of aviation professionals,

10 ICAO JOURNAL

Mr. Wang is the Vice-Minister of the GeneralAdministration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC).

continued on page 33

The main goal of China’s training system in the near term is to address the current shortageof aviation professionals, including air traffic controllers, but also to establish an approachto recruitment that prevents serious personnel shortages from arising in the future

THE GLOBAL SAFETY picture has certain paral-lels to the aviation safety situation in China. As inChina, worldwide safety has improved steadilyover the past 10 years, with a general downwardtrend in the fatal accident rate. However, withstrong traffic growth anticipated — ICAO fore-sees an average annual growth of 4.4 percent inpassenger-kilometres during the 2007-15 period,and as many as 2.8 billion passengers per year by2015, compared to 2.1 billion in 2006 — public con-fidence in the world’s air transport system can onlybe maintained by continuing to reduce the accidentrate as the number of departures multiply.

In the past 10 years, certain trends in global

PRESSURE ON TO REDUCEGLOBAL ACCIDENT RATE

continued on page 33

Acontrolled flight into terrain(CFIT) accident occurs when anairworthy aircraft under the con-

trol of the flight crew is flown unintention-ally into terrain, obstacles or water, usual-ly with no awareness of the impendingcollision on the part of the crew. ICAOhas been involved for many years in aworldwide effort to prevent this type ofaccident, which usually involves heavyloss of life.

ICAO’s first action in this regard can betraced to 1978, when requirements forequipping commercial air transport aircraftwith the ground proximity warning system(GPWS) were introduced in Part I ofAnnex 6 to the Chicago Convention. Thisled to a significant decrease in the numberof CFIT occurrences, but not to their com-plete elimination. A further step was takenwith the development of GPWS with a for-ward-looking function, generally referredto as the enhanced ground proximity warn-ing system (EGPWS), and known in theUnited States as the ter-rain awareness and warn-ing system (TAWS). Withthe advent of EGPWS/TAWS in 1996, there havebeen no CFIT accidentsinvolving aircraft equippedwith this technology (seeadjacent figure).*

While the aviation com-munity can be justifiablyproud of its achievementin reducing CFIT acci-dents, there is no place forcomplacency. Operationalexperience has identifiedconcerns about the use ofEGPWS that must beaddressed to ensure that

CFIT PREVENTION

While CFIT record has improved markedly,certain issues have also come to light

Several low-cost but crucial measures can be taken by stakeholders to reduce the likelihood of false EGPWS warnings or, more seriously still, the system’s failure to provide a valid warning

RICHARD T. SLATTER

ICAO SECRETARIAT

the timely warning that has proven sovaluable to accident avoidance is availableall of the time.

The EGPWS safety issues that havebeen identified concern the upkeep of soft-ware on which EGPWS/TAWS depends,as well as the obstacle, runway and terraindatabase, the provision of global naviga-tion satellite system (GNSS) positioning,the operation of the system’s “peaks andobstacles” function, and the geometric alti-tude function of the equipment.

Perhaps the most easily rectified short-coming involves the software utilized byEGPWS/TAWS. Software updates areissued regularly, yet industry sourcesreveal these are not being implementedby all operators, or are not installed in atimely manner. Aside from the factupdates are often available free of chargefrom equipment manufacturers, there isample reason to perform this task sincethe use of current information is clearlycritical to safety.

Application of software updatesimproves the characteristics of the equip-ment. Such improvements are possibleon the basis of operational experience,

and enable warnings in situations effec-tively closer to the runway thresholdwhere previously it was not possible toprovide such warnings.

Without information provided by thelatest version of software, operation ofEGPWS/TAWS may be compromised inspecific situations. The flight crew, whohas no convenient means of knowing thesoftware status of the equipment onwhich they ultimately rely, may have afalse sense of confidence in its capability.

An example of the effect of outdatedEGPWS software arose recently atZacatecas, Mexico, where a CFIT acci-dent was narrowly averted, not by a time-ly EGPWS warning but by the aircraftstriking power lines on its final approach,prompting the crew to initiate a go-around in time. The Airbus A319 was on avery high frequency omnidirectionalradio range/distance measuring equip-ment (VOR/DME) approach using a sta-bilized, continuous descent technique inconditions where fog was reported. Thedescent commenced some 2.5 kilometresearly and continued below the minimumdescent height (MDH 459 ft) until about

100 feet below thresholdlevel, at which point theaircraft hit the powerlines some 2,200 metres(7,220 ft) short of thethreshold.

Although the A319 wasequipped with EGPWS/TAWS, no warning wasprovided in this instance.It was reported that, apartfrom operational deficien-cies, the aircraft’s EGPWSsoftware was out of date.A software update thatwould have provided 30seconds’ warning in thecircumstances of the inci-dent had been issued by

NUMBER 2, 2007 13

Activ

e Fl

eet S

ize

18 000

16 000

14 000

12 000

10 000

8 000

6 000

4 000

2 000

01994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Aircraft equipped with EGPWS (No CFIT Accidents)Aircraft without EGPWSNumber of CFIT Accidents

4 4 45 5 5

3 3 3

8

1

Mandated operation of EGPWS/TAWS has brought impressive results: todate, no aircraft equipped with this technology has suffered a CFIT accident

Worldwide commercial jet fleetSource: IATA

the equipment manufacturer four yearsearlier, and by the airframe manufacturerone year prior to the incident, but itappears this had not been applied.

Similarly, it is crucial to regularly updatethe obstacle, runway and terrain databaseprovided by manufacturers for use withtheir equipment, since the proper function-ing of the EGPWS/TAWS may oth-erwise be jeopardized. Again,updates are issued for these data-bases on a regular basis, free ofcharge by equipment manufactur-ers. EGPWS/TAWS operation canalso be undermined by the lack ofsuitable navigational input. Theequipment was designed to func-tion with a position update system,but not all installations are linkedto GNSS receivers. While therequired position data can beacquired by using an effectiveground-based navaid network, themost reliable of which is providedby DME/DME, such support forarea navigation systems is notavailable everywhere. Use ofGNSS, accessible worldwide, elim-inates the possibility of positionshift, which is another source offalse warnings (or worse, the fail-ure to provide a genuine warning).

There is also concern that thepotential advantage of the obstacleand terrain database informationmay be reduced or even negatedby the failure of the operator toenable the peaks and altitude func-tion provided with some EGPWS/TAWS equipment.

Operation of EGPWS/TAWS issubject to altimetry-based errors.This problem can be avoidedwhen the equipment, originallydesigned to work with the QNH altimetersetting, is operated together with GNSS-provided geometric altitude. Additionally,use of the geometric altitude function pre-vents errors that arise from the use of theQFE altimeter setting for approach andlanding.

The limited coverage of obstacle datafor the database has also raised concerns.While this information is needed for oper-ations worldwide, in practice data forobstacles higher than 30 metres (98 ft)are available only in certain regions and

CFIT PREVENTION

countries, specifically Australia, theCaribbean, Central America, NewZealand, North America and WesternEurope. Wherever data for obstacles arenot available, or whenever the peaks andobstacles function of the EGPWS/TAWSis not enabled, the equipment’s basicGPWS function cannot alert the crew to

the presence of obstacles closeto the flight path.

In some instances, lack of timely infor-mation on runway thresholds prior to thecommissioning of a new runway has beencited as a problem. Such information,moreover, is not always to the requiredaccuracy, or is not always provided asWorld Geodetic System – 1984 (WGS-84)coordinates, although WGS-84 is thecommon horizontal reference system.

Data for new runways must be distrib-uted well in advance of the service entry

date if this information is to be incorporat-ed in the applicable databases and subse-quently implemented by operators priorto commencement of the runway’s opera-tion. Aside from timeliness, it is impera-tive that such data meet ICAO’s qualityrequirements, as specified in ICAOAnnex 14, Volume I, Appendix 5.

In some cases, it has been foundthat terrain data meeting the WGS-84 standard is not available, or thatconversions of data to the WGS-84standard are not correct.

The type of deficiencies citedabove can only heighten theprobability of false warnings or,more seriously, the risk that agenuine warning will not beforthcoming. The problem withfalse warnings is their potentialnegative conditioning: if theyoccur too often, a flight crew maynot react promptly and aggres-sively when there is a valid alert.The frequent occurrence of falsewarnings is also known to encour-age crews to operate with theEGPWS/TAWS function selectedoff. In this case the basic GPWSwill still provide a warning, but asshown in the past, the basic GPWSmay not provide a warning in suffi-cient time for the avoidance of anaccident. In any event, operating

without the EGPWS/TAWSfunction engaged simply

defeats the purpose behindinstalling the forward-looking element.

Collectively, thesevarious shortcomingsin the software, data-

bases and proceduresthat support EGPWS/TAWS

operation can degrade thevalue of the warning system, and

clearly call for attention by national regu-latory authorities, aircraft operators andairframe manufacturers. To reduce therisk of CFIT as much as possible, coun-tries around the world need to ensure thattimely information of required quality onrunway thresholds, as well as terrain andobstacle data, are provided for databasesin accordance with the common referencesystems (ICAO Annex 15, Chapter 3).ICAO requirements for runway, terrain

14 ICAO JOURNAL

The problem of false EGPWS/TAWSwarnings can be curtailed byadopting certain practices such asupdating software and databasesto the latest available standard.Most false warnings are related todatabase errors, as reflected in thepie chart supplied by Honeywell.

Hardware failure 0.4%Visual flight 4.7%

Valid 2.5%

Database error62.3%

FMS error16.4%

Altitude error13.8%

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and obstacle data are established in rele-vant annexes to the Chicago Convention,specifically Annex 11, Air Traffic Services;Annex 14, Aerodromes, Volume I —Aerodrome Design and Operations, andVolume II — Heliports; and Annex 15,Aeronautical Information Services.

States are required to ensure that elec-tronic terrain and obstacle data related totheir entire territory are made availablefor international civil aviation in the man-ner specified in ICAO Annex 15 (para-graphs 10.2, 10.3 and 10.4). Notably, cur-rent requirements for the provision ofsuch data are addressed by a recom-mended practice contained in Annex 15(10.6.1.3), which applies to specificationsfor terrain and obstacle data for definedareas (i.e. the territory of the State, termi-nal control areas, and so forth).

Annex 15 also requires that States —as of November 2008 — ensure electron-ic terrain data and obstacle data are madeavailable in accordance with the specifica-tions for Area 1 (i.e. the entire territory ofthe State, including aerodromes and heli-ports), as well as terrain data in accor-dance with Area 4 specifications (Area 4pertains to runways where precisionapproach Category II or III operationshave been established). As of November2010, States are also required to makesure that electronic terrain and obstacledata are made available in accordancewith the Annex 15 specifications forAreas 2 and 3. (Area 2 refers to the termi-nal control area as published in a State’saeronautical information publication, or a45-kilometre radius from the aerodromeor heliport reference point, whicheverarea is the smaller; at IFR aerodromesand heliports where a terminal controlarea has not been established, it coversthe zone within a 45-kilometre radius ofthe aerodrome or heliport referencepoint. Area 3 pertains only to IFR aero-dromes/heliports, and concerns adefined space extending from the edge ofthe runway and the aerodrome/heliportmovement area.)

ICAO has developed guidance materialin the form of Document 9881, Guidelinesfor Electronic Terrain, Obstacle andAerodrome Mapping Information, toassist States in the provision of terrainand obstacle data.

Aircraft operators can obtain the great-

CFIT PREVENTION

est benefit from EGPWS/TAWS by fol-lowing certain practices. They should:• update software to the latest availablestandard;• update databases to the latest availablestandard;• ensure that the GNSS position is pro-vided to EGPWS/TAWS;• enable the EGPWS/TAWS geometric

altitude function (if available);• enable the EGPWS/TAWS peaks andobstacles function (if available); and• implement any applicable service bul-letins offered by airframe manufacturers.

Irrespective of these recommendedpractices, it is essential that other neces-sary efforts aimed at CFIT prevention,such as crew training, use of standardoperating procedures and implementa-tion of a safety management system bythe operator, are also undertaken.

Aircraft manufacturers also have a roleto play in efforts to reduce the risk ofCFIT. Aside from offering EGPWS/TAWS in new aircraft and supportingretrofit of older aircraft through issuanceof appropriate service bulletins, theycould facilitate utilization of GNSS posi-tioning by accommodating the prefer-ence of many operators for less costlyreceivers. At present, only multi-modereceivers are recognized by airframemanufacturers as a GNSS source, butthese units typically cost in excess of U.S.$40,000 each. Other types of receivers

now available can provide EGPWS/TAWS with GNSS position at an installa-tion cost of less than $10,000.

With respect to false warnings, indus-try sources indicate that over 62 percentof unjustified warnings arise from data-base errors, while more than 16 percentarise from flight management system(FMS) errors and over 13 percent stem

from altitude errors (see pie chart, page14). The practices and actions suggestedabove are important because they havethe potential to significantly reduce the92.5 percent of false warnings resultingfrom database, FMS and altitude errors.

In summary, while without doubt thereduction of CFIT accidents is a majorachievement, the risk of a CFIT accidentremains higher than it should be. Theshortcomings or deficiencies in equipmentand procedures necessary for the prevention

NUMBER 2, 2007 15

* Recent presentations and articles have highlightedthe importance of EGPWS/TAWS in avoiding acci-dents. These include presentations on TAWS by Capt.Dan Gurney at the Flight Safety Foundation (FSF)European Aviation Safety Seminar in Athens in March2006, the FSF Corporate Aviation Safety Seminar inPhoenix in May 2006, and the FSF International AirSafety Seminar in Paris in October 2006 (“CelebratingTAWS Saves, But Lessons Still to be Learned”). Capt.Gurney also recently wrote on this subject in the FSFmagazine, AeroSafety World (“Last Line of Defence:Learning from Experience,” January 2007).

Richard T. Slatter, an aircraft operations consultantemployed by ICAO, has been involved in the ICAO pro-grammes for the prevention of CFIT and reduction inapproach and landing accidents since 1990.

continued on page 38

Information on the location of runway thresholds is needed for database entry wellin advance of the commissioning date of a new runway

Jim

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WIND SHEAR-related accidentshave caused more than 1,400fatalities worldwide since

1943, including over 400 deaths in theUnited States alone during the 1973-85period. This loss of life has prompted thedevelopment and deployment of windshear detection systems.

Four types of systems have so farentered operation across the UnitedStates, where sites are chosen on thebasis of traffic volume and thunderstormfrequency. Those commissioned to date— the terminal Doppler weather radar(TDWR), the low level wind shear alertsystem (LLWAS), the weather systemsprocessor (WSP) and the integrated ter-minal weather sys-tem (ITWS) — collec-tively serve 121 U.S.aerodromes. Othernon-commissionedturbulence and windshear systems, suchas the light detectingand ranging (LIDAR)Doppler and theJuneau airport windsystem (JAWS), haverecently been evalu-ated.

The wind shearsystems currently inoperation detect achange in the windspeed and/or direc-tion and issue anautomated alert to anair traffic controller,who then relays this

AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY

Ground-based wind shear detection systemshave become vital to safe operations

Various warning systems deployed at the most vulnerable locations across the United States providevarying levels of protection against wind shear, with collocation of certain systems offering the mosteffective safety solution

CHRISTOPHER KEOHAN

FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION

(UNITED STATES)

alert to pilots. In general, automatedground-based systems detect wind shearthat involves an airspeed change of 15knots or greater over a distance of one tofour kilometres. For alerting purposes,wind shear is classified as a microburstwhen it involves a speed loss of 30 knotsor greater. The alert provides the windshear type (i.e. wind shear ormicroburst), the strength, and the loca-tion of the first encounter on theapproach or departure corridor, as thecase may be. Coverage varies with eachsystem, but is focused on the runway andup to three nautical miles (NM) from theend of the runway.

A brief description of the capability ofeach wind shear detection system, includ-ing recent improvements made, is pre-sented below. Weather products thatimprove air traffic management (ATM)efficiency are also highlighted.

Terminal Doppler weather radar. Thereare currently 45 TDWRs commissionedin the United States. This five-centimetreradar system, designed to specificallydetect wind shear at an aerodrome,achieves better than 90 percent probabili-ty of detection (POD) of wind shear losswhile maintaining less than 10 percentprobability of false alarm (PFA) — valuesthat are nominal east of the RockyMountains but not attained in the inter-mountain west. The gust front, or windshear gain in airspeed, is generally above70 percent probability of detection east ofthe Rockies, but less than 50 percentamong the western mountains.

The problem of TDWR outages —related to issues such as unreliablepower, poor communications with AirTraffic Services (ATS), computer limita-tions and antenna wear — have beenovercome during the past decade. Toremedy the problem of antenna wear, theaerodrome pie sector scan strategy hasbeen upgraded to a 360-degree scan; thishas increased the scan strategy volumetime and gust front update time from fiveto six minutes, while maintaining thewind shear loss surface scan update timeof one minute.

An improvement in TDWR reliabilitywas essential for winning the confidenceof ATS. TDWR information is alsorelayed to many U.S. National WeatherService (NWS) offices, which issueweather warnings and forecasts to aero-dromes and the public.

As implied by the POD values above,one concern is the less than desirablewind shear performance in the westernUnited States. TDWR detects wind shearwell when the shear is accompanied byrain, but does not perform so effectivelywhen there is little or no rain. Althoughthe scan strategy and clutter maps have

16 ICAO JOURNAL

TDWR (left) experienced early problems with outages thathave now been resolved. The ASR-9 system, right, has beenupgraded with implementation of WSP. Less costly thanTDWR, WSP allows for wind shear prediction at medium-capacity airports; however, it does not perform effectivelyin a dry environment

been optimized, the per-formance has remained out-side of specifications (POD≥ 90% and PFA ≤ 10%). In aneffort to address this short-coming, the MassachusettsInstitute of TechnologyLincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) and the U.S. FederalAviation Administration (FAA)have begun developing newTDWR radar data acquisi-tion (RDA) techniques thatare expected to improvedata quality. Testing of thesenew techniques is expectedin 2007.

LIDAR Doppler. In addi-tion to TDWR improve-ments, an evaluation of analternative dry wind sheardetection system was per-formed at Las Vegas in thesummer of 2005. TheLIDAR Doppler system wasprovided by LockheedMartin Coherent Technolo-gies and tested by FAA.Results showed the LIDARDoppler was effective at detecting dry windshear, while TDWR performed well at iden-tifying wet wind shear in this high clutterenvironment.

An integration of TDWR and LIDARDoppler systems can achieve the desiredwind shear detection rate of better than90 percent POD, while also limiting falsealarms to under 10 percent, provided theintegrated systems incorporate theTDWR RDA upgrade and some modifica-tions to the LIDAR Doppler wind sheardetection algorithms.

The ability of LIDAR Doppler in detect-ing dry wind shear has been proven inHong Kong, where the system can dis-cern terrain-induced wind shear. Othersensors installed at Hong Kong includethe TDWR, anemometers, weather buoysand wind profilers. The information fromeach of these systems is used in the windshear and turbulence warning system(WTWS), making the source of the alerttransparent to ATS personnel.

According to the Hong Kong Obser-vatory, the use of these various systemsresults in an integrated wind shear PODrate of greater than 90 percent. The

AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY

LIDAR Doppler contributes to the detec-tion of nearly 70 percent of these windshears. This success has led to the acqui-sition of a second LIDAR system forimproved coverage and redundancy. (Arecent description of the Hong KongWTWS is available on the web athttp://www.science.gov.hk/paper/HKO_PWLi.pdf.) Also worth noting is thatobstacle wind shear and turbulencecaused by large hangars is being detect-ed by a LIDAR system at Tokyo Haneda.

Another use of LIDAR is to track themovement of wake vortices in order toincrease aerodrome capacity. With thegoal of safely reducing aircraft spacing incertain wind conditions, research contin-ues with operations on closely spaced par-allel runways at airports in St. Louis, SanFrancisco, Houston, Frankfurt and Paris.When wind conditions are favourable,capacity gains can be achieved by increas-ing the number of departures. The windmust be above a specific crosswindthreshold for aircraft on the upwind run-way to depart without imposing wake-induced aircraft spacing on the parallelrunway (i.e. the wind must be strong

enough to disperse wake vortices beforethey can reach the downwind runway).

In addition, LIDAR will be used todetermine headwind criteria for reducingaircraft spacing at London Heathrow.With this information, it may be possibleto introduce spacing based on a timeinterval instead of distance. A combina-tion of all LIDAR wake vortex researchcould result in a new aircraft type matrixwhich is not based only on aeroplaneweight, but aircraft attributes such aswingspan.

Juneau airport wind system. Terrain-induced turbulence and wind shear is aserious hazard in Juneau, Alaska, whichis why the U.S. National Center ofAtmospheric Research (NCAR) and FAAhave developed JAWS. The system,which includes wind profilers and windsensors at various locations around thecity, generates moderate and severe tur-bulence warnings for B737-size aircrafton the control tower display. These warn-ings are based on regressions derivedfrom aircraft measurements of turbu-lence in relation to wind profiler and sen-sor information.

NUMBER 2, 2007 17

Example of ITWS display of severe weather containing microbursts, a gust front and tornados (KansasCity, 13 March 2006). ITWS features a prediction product that forewarns of a microburst

In addition to turbulence warnings, theJAWS prototype display provides air trafficcontrollers with runway headwind andcrosswinds, profiler-based winds every 500feet above ground to an altitude of 6,000feet, and sensor wind speed and directionthat include the recent peak wind. Thoughthe turbulence alerts produced by JAWSprovide useful information for pilots, future

funding for this project remains uncertain.Other sites whose topography is complexcould benefit from the JAWS researchalready performed, but tailored regres-sions would be required.

Low level wind shear alert system. Thenetwork expansion of the LLWAS (LLWAS-NE), also referred to as LLWAS-NE++ sincebeing rehosted, is located at nine U.S. aero-dromes collocated with TDWR. In addition,a stand-alone system is located in Juneau,Alaska. The LLWAS Relocation andSustainment (LLWAS-RS) project involves40 U.S. aerodromes not equipped withTDWR. Both systems provide detailedwind shear alerts to ATS. Unlike the origi-nal LLWAS system, which issues sectorwind shear alerts, the LLWAS-NE andLLWAS-RS provide detailed wind shearalerts to air traffic controllers. Informationcontained in the alert includes wind sheartype, strength, and the location of the firstencounter on the approach or departurecorridor, whichever is appropriate.

The probability of detection and falsealarms of all LLWAS types historically is

AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY

greater than 95 percent and less than 5percent respectively. The strengths ofthese systems are their ability to detectboth wet and dry wind shear, as well as analert update rate of 10 seconds. Unlikethe radar-based gust front alerts, theLLWAS-based alerts are oriented to therunway and are more accurate.

The reliability of both LLWAS systemshas been improvedby replacing vaneanemometer sen-sors with sonicsensors. Hardwareand software up-grades provide awarning to localtechnicians if asensor is not func-tioning properly.Even with this inplace, a false windshear alert of onlyseveral minutes’duration can neg-atively impact ca-pacity at a busyaerodrome. Windshear coverage ismore limited thanradar, and the

cost of deployment is expensive if the air-port is located near prime real estate.

As mentioned above, the LLWAS-NE iscollocated with TDWR, and serves as abackup when the TDWR is out of service.When both systems are operating, windshear alerts are integrated and thesource of the alert is not apparent to theair traffic controller. The integration ofthe two systems provides a lower falsealarm rate at high capacity aerodromes.Gust front wind shear alerts areimproved as well, because the logic takesadvantage of the higher gust front detec-tion provided by the LLWAS-NE. TheITWS is also integrated with LLWAS-NEat aerodromes where the two systems arecollocated.

Weather systems processor. The WSP is ahardware and software modification tothe existing airport surveillance radar-9(ASR-9) system that provides wind shearand weather information to controllers at34 U.S. aerodromes. The WSP is lesscostly than TDWR, allowing for windshear protection at medium-capacity

aerodromes and busy aerodromes withless convective activity.

The primary function of the ASR-9 is todetect aircraft in the terminal area, andconsequently, it has a large beam width.In fact, the ASR-9 azimuth and elevationbeam widths are 2.5 and nine times larg-er than the TDWR beam width, resultingin a coarser resolution. Combined with afaster antenna speed and robust groundclutter removal technique, this results ina wind shear detection rate that is lowerthan that available from TDWR. The WSPwind shear detection specificationsinclude a probability of detection of 70percent for wind shears involving at least20 knots loss, while maintaining a proba-bility of false alarm under 20 percent.

Many false alarms generated by WSPhave been triggered by bird activity anddifferent winds aloft captured by the widebeam. The wind shear specifications aregraduated with wind shear strength andincrease to 90 percent for intensitiesexceeding a speed loss of 40 knots ormore. Update rates are 30 seconds forwind shear loss and two minutes for gustfront products; these are faster than theTDWR wind shear product update rates ofone minute and six minutes respectively.

In the dry environment, the WSP per-forms even less effectively than theTDWR because of the surveillance radarproperties. Therefore, a complementarydry wind shear detection system isdesired at WSP locations in the inter-mountain west.

Integrated terminal weather system.Located at 13 U.S. approach control unitsand serving 23 aerodromes, ITWS meldsnumerous weather systems in the termi-nal area to provide one display with vari-ous weather products associated withsafety and efficiency. One of these inputsis the TDWR, which is used mainly todetect wind shear. Relative to TDWR,ITWS wind shear detection algorithmsare more accurate in depicting thestrongest shear zone, an attribute thatreduces the frequency of false wind shearalarms. The introduction of a more robustwind shear storm validation also decreas-es the false alarm rate. A threshold on thewater content of the storm above the windshear is applied to verify a wind shearsource. These improvements translate toa probability of detection of at least 95 per-

18 ICAO JOURNAL

Product Type Product Update TDWR LLWAS-NE WSP ITWS(minutes) & RS

Wind Shear Microburst 1, 1/6, 1/2, 1 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

MB Prediction 3 ✔

Gust Front 6, 1/6, 2, 6 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

GF Prediction 10-, 20-minute 6, -, 2, 6 ✔ ✔ ✔

Wind Shift 6, -, 2, 6 ✔ ✔ ✔

Precipitation Aerodrome – high resolution 1 ✔ ✔

Terminal Area 6, -, 1/2, 1/2 ✔ ✔ ✔

Long Range 2 1/2 ✔

Storm Motion 6, -, 1, 1 Aero/ ✔ ✔ ✔

Term 2 1/2 LongStorm Extrapolated Position 1 Aero/Term ✔ ✔

2 1/2 LongTerminal Convective Weather 5 ✔

ForecastAnomalous Propagation Edit 1/2 ✔

Storm Cell Hail, Lightning, Echo Tops, 1 Aero ✔

Information Severe Storm Circulation 1/2 Term2 1/2 Long

Tornado Tornado 6 ✔

Term Winds Terminal Winds 5 ✔

Pilot Info Terminal Weather Information 1 ✔ ✔

for Pilots

Wind shear and weather products available from systems commissioned in United States

cent for microburst loss alerts, whiledecreasing the false alarm rate to lessthan 5 percent. As with TDWR and WSP,ITWS wind shear detection may be lessreliable in the dry environment.

One positive feature of ITWS is themicroburst prediction product, whichforetells whether a weak wind shear (i.e.15-25 knots loss) will strengthen to amicroburst. This advance warning of upto two minutes is critical for air trafficmanagement, because for some airlinesthe term “microburst alert” brings intoeffect a no-fly situation. The extra warn-ing time is important, since manymicrobursts reach their maximumstrength five to 10 minutes after first con-tacting the ground.

In addition to safety, ITWS dispensesweather products that are used by ATS toincrease aerodrome capacity (all of theradar systems cited above are also usedto increase ATM efficiency). A list ofweather products associated with variouswind shear systems is given in the accom-panying table. As shown, ITWS featuresthe greatest quantity of weather productsthat take advantage of the various inputsensors including TDWR, next genera-tion radar (NEXRAD), ASR, LLWAS,automated surface observing system(ASOS), automated weather observationsystem (AWOS), national lightning detec-tion network (NLDN), meteorologicaldata collection and reporting system(MDCRS) and rapid update cycle (RUC).

Ten and 20-minute gust front predic-tions are given on the TDWR, WSP andITWS displays at the air traffic superviso-ry positions in the tower and approachcontrol unit. In the case of ITWS, the ATScentre also has a display. Anticipating awind shift allows ATS to find a potentialgap in downstream traffic where thechange in runway can be implementedwith relative smoothness. In addition, air-craft can be instructed to taxi to the antic-ipated runway prior to the change in theactive, saving both time and fuel. A mosa-ic of gust fronts is provided at ITWS loca-tions with more than one TDWR, thusreducing the number of radar blind spotsand improving the reliability of the gust-front product.

Predicting the location of moderateand heavy precipitation is important forchanging the departure and arrival corri-

AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY

dors and determining aerodrome capaci-ty and proper holding locations (higheraltitudes are preferred because of the fuelsavings compared with holding patternsat lower altitudes). The storm-extrapolat-ed position product predicts the locationof the leading edge of moderate to heavy

precipitation in 10 and 20 minutes, whileother aviation hazards such as hail, light-ning, echo tops and severe storm circula-tion are included in the ITWS storm cellinformation product.

A storm containing hail can be avoidedthrough traffic coordination. The light-ning product is used to suspend groundoperations, such as baggage handling,when cloud-to-ground lightning occurswithin 20 NM of the aerodrome. Lastly,the centre supervisor uses echo top infor-mation to determine if long-range routesare impacted by convective weather thatrequires rerouting.

ATM planning may continue toimprove with the deployment of theITWS terminal convective weather fore-cast (TCWF) product. This depicts theprobable location of significant precipita-tion out to 60 minutes (in increments of10 minutes). The TCWF scores its ownpredictions and gives real-time forecastaccuracy. The flow of traffic from centreto centre, from centre to approach andfrom approach to tower can benefit fromthe TCWF product by anticipating routeswith convective activity.

The ITWS terminal winds product pro-vides winds at various altitudes at desiredlocations in the terminal area.Anticipating adjustments to aircraft spac-ing in the terminal area can increaseaerodrome capacity by several depar-tures or arrivals per hour. A cost-benefit

study performed by MIT/LL in 1997showed that an increase in capacity forlong durations over the course of a yearsaves tens of millions of dollars in delaysat some congested aerodromes.

Planning is available to flight crewsthrough the terminal weather informa-tion for pilots (TWIP) product, which isavailable with TDWR and ITWS. TheTWIP presents wind shear and precipita-tion information via text or text graphics.Traffic entering the terminal airspace canutilize the aircraft communicationsaddressing and reporting system(ACARS) to obtain information on con-vective-type weather at the aerodrome.Common awareness of both pilots andcontrollers serves to promote more effi-cient communications.

At least one carrier, Northwest Airlines,automatically sends the TWIP product to

NUMBER 2, 2007 19

TDWR only AirportsNot shown: San JuanTDWR / LLWAS-NE AirportsTDWR / ITWS Airports

TDWR / ITWS / LLWAS-NE AirportsLLWAS-RS AirportsWSP AirportsNot shown: Honolulu

LLWAS-NE only Airport: Anchorage, Alaska (not shown)

Christopher Keohan is a senior meteorologist on windshear systems at the FAA Mike Monroney AeronauticalCenter in Oklahoma City, Okla. Mr. Keohan con-tributed to an update of the ICAO Manual on Low-level Wind Shear and Turbulence (Document 9817) in2005 and has developed a wind shear course for theFAA’s Airports and International Training Division.

continued on page 33

Location of FAA terminal wind shear and weather systems. In addition to sitesshown, four LLWAS-NE systems are collocated with TDWR, and five LLWAS-NE systems are collocated with TDWR and ITWS. As of 2 February 2007, 13 ITWSs serve 23 aerodromes equipped with TDWRs

THE history of advances in aviationsafety is marked by a series ofinsights. Often these insights have

been linked to the development of newdata-gathering methods. The recognitionof the role of human factors in aviationaccidents led to a plethora of human fac-tors coding schemes for accident and inci-dent reports. Professor James Reason’swork on organizational accidents led to anumber of both reactive (i.e. after the inci-dent or accident) and proactive organiza-tional safety measures. The developmentof the threat and error management(TEM) framework was inextricably linkedto the Line Operations Safety Audit(LOSA) data collection method.

These and many more initiatives havebeen incorporated into the arsenal of avi-ation safety practitioners. Airlines, manu-facturers, industry groups and State andinternational bodies have all implement-ed these and many other concepts intotheir safety processes. In general, howev-er, the different data types are broughttogether in an informal, ad hoc way. Thequestion that naturally arises is how wellthese data can be integrated to provide amore complete understanding ofsafety risks.

Safety data integration, asdescribed below, can be achievedthrough the use of a risk modelbased on the framework of threat anderror management. This approachbuilds on the work initiated by ICAOand the International Air TransportAssociation (IATA) to develop anintegrated threat analysis (ITA) thatcombines TEM concepts with exist-ing accident and incident databases.The approach proposed in this article

expands on the ITA concept, and providesa means of bringing together quite dis-parate information to build a more com-plete picture of the flight safety risk. Forexample, the insightful human factors-based analysis of the crew’s managementof threats and errors drawn from LOSA canbe combined with the detailed profile offlight performance provided by an analysisof recorded flight data; the result of thiscombination is an improvement in the utili-ty of both data sources.

Before describing the details of theproposed model, it is worthwhile consid-ering the nature of safety data generallyavailable. Typical elements in the safetyinformation programme of an airline caninclude mandatory safety reports, volun-tary reports of safety occurrences andhazards, confidential reports of hazardsand safety issues, flight data monitoringprogrammes, investigations and lineobservations. A brief comment on each ofthese elements follows.• Mandatory safety reports. Reports ofsafety occurrences required by local civilaviation authority or international regula-tions commonly include pilot reports ofoperational incidents and engineeringreports relating to technical defects andmaintenance difficulties.• Voluntary reports of safety occurrencesand hazards. Airlines commonly extend the

reporting requirement to include a varietyof occurrences and situations which mayindicate a potential safety hazard.• Confidential reports of hazards and safe-ty issues. Airlines can offer confidentialityto employees to encourage reporting ofsituations or practices that represent apotential hazard but where the employeemay be reluctant to disclose informationusing existing reporting mechanisms.• Flight data monitoring programmes.This type of programme, often referred toas FOQA (Flight Operations QualityAssurance), collects data from flightrecorders and analyses them to identifysignificant deviations from ideal flightperformance, or examines the distribu-tion of one or more parameters for all ora sampling of flights.• Investigations. Information derivedfrom in-house investigations of reportedoccurrences, hazards or situations, isgenerally focused on the factors that havecontributed to the event. Factors may bestructured under a number of classifica-tion schemes, many of which draw onProfessor Reason’s work.• Line observations. Traditionally, flightoperations standards groups have operatedprogrammes of line surveillance over andabove regulatory line or route checks. Withthe development of LOSA, these pro-grammes have in some cases been supple-

SAFETY DATA

Safety data integration can leadto better understanding of risk

By integrating safety data from different sources and applying a risk model, it should be possible to builda more complete safety picture that highlights those improvements that can deliver the greatest benefit

BOB DODD

QANTAS AIRWAYS

(AUSTRALIA))

NUMBER 2, 2007 21

Threat Rate

T/ETransition

Error RateE/U

TransitionUASRate

U/OTransition

OutcomeRate

EnvironmentWeather

ATCAirport

AirlineOps Pressure

CabinA/C Malfunction

GroundDispatch

A/C HandlingManual Handling

AutomationSystems

ProceduralSOP X-check

ChecklistBriefingsCall Outs

Communications

A/C HandlingVert/Lat/Speed Dev.Unstable ApproachLong/Firm/Off Cntr

LandingWX Penetration

Outside A/C LimitsAbrupt Control

Ground NavigationWrong Taxiway

Incorrect A/C Config

Accident/SeriousIncident

Loss of ControlIn-Flight A/C Failure

Turbulence InjuryCFIT

Land ShortHard Landing

Runway ExcursionA/C Collision (Flight)

Ground Collision

As illustrated by this flow chart, the TEM framework can be used to significantly improveour understanding of risks for specific accident categories

mented or replaced by human factors obser-vation programmes based on TEM con-cepts. Initially focused on the flight deck,some airlines have extended this concept tocabin, ramp and maintenance operations.

Over and above airline safety data collec-tion, government organizations, industrybodies, aircraft manufacturers, internation-al organizations such as ICAO and otherindependent groups have implemented arange of safety information programmes.Among the most comprehensive of theseare the ICAO Accident/Incident DataReporting (ADREP) system and BirdStrike Information System (IBIS), the IATASafety Trend Evaluation, Analysis and DataExchange System (STEADES), and thearchive of the LOSA Collaborative(ARCHIE), which contains data collectedfrom numerous airlines worldwide thathave implemented a LOSA programme.These sources provide information cover-ing broad sections of worldwide aviationactivity.

All of these sources of data are designedto address different aspects of flight safety,and each has various strengths and weak-nesses. While the process of safety assess-ment and analysis will lead to some com-bining of these data, it generally concernsan individual event or possibly a specificissue, and usually takes place on an infor-mal or qualitative basis.

The TEM framework can be used to sig-nificantly improve our understanding of

risks for specific accident categories. Thefirst step is to look at the rate at whichcrews are exposed to threats and errorsand the rate at which these evolve intoundesired aircraft states. This informationis then combined with global data on therate at which undesired aircraft states ofvarious severity result in accidents or seri-ous incidents. In this way, it is possible todevelop a quantitative model of risk.

SAFETY DATA

This concept is illustrated in the accom-panying figure (page 21). The processbegins with an assessment of the rate atwhich flights are exposed to threats ofvarious sorts — weather, air traffic con-trol (ATC), aircraft malfunction, and soon. The next step is to transition fromthreats to errors (this includes the rate atwhich errors occur without a previousthreat, and also the rate at which crewssuccessfully manage the threat, resultingin no errors). This process leads to a pro-file of error rates.

In a similar fashion, an assessment ismade of the transition from errors toundesired aircraft states. Finally, we lookat the transition to accidents or seriousincidents as an overall indication of theadverse safety outcome.

The proposed approach is to use avariety of data sources to provide quanti-tative estimates of the rates of threats,errors, undesired aircraft states and out-comes, and the transition rates betweenthem. Such an approach can be appliedto both worldwide aviation and individ-ual airlines.

By taking this approach, an airline isable to estimate the overall risk level forspecific categories of accidents, such ascontrolled flight into terrain (CFIT) andrunway excursion. It would also makepossible an assessment of the intensity ofthe relationship between “upstream” safe-ty elements (e.g. ATC threat rates or pro-

cedural error rates) and the risk of anaccident “downstream.” This informa-tion, in turn, would help direct safetyefforts to where they deliver the greatestbenefit. In addition, it would provide guid-ance on the level of risk associated withrates of undesired aircraft states. At anyairline today, if a flight operations manag-er were to question whether, for example,a particular rate of long landings is some-

thing to be concerned about, no one wouldbe able to provide a really useful answer.While the proposed model cannot be per-fect, it would nonetheless give a generalsense of when particular rates of undesiredaircraft states are a concern.

Using the approach described here, anairline could also benchmark overall safetyperformance against other worldwide rates.

Existing safety data sources can beused to estimate the rates to be used inthe model. The accompanying table illus-trates the relative utility of various inter-national and internal airline data sourcesin this respect.

In general, more than one data sourceis available to estimate rates. For exam-ple, an airline may have completed aLOSA session or run an internal obser-vation process using the TEM frame-work, and by using the results, will beable to compute rates directly. However,these calculations will generally bebased on fairly small samples. Otheravailable data sources, such as theARCHIE data, are based on larger sam-ples but may not reflect as well the spe-cific operation of the airline concerned.A good method of combining multipleestimates is the technique of Bayesianestimation which provides, in essence, aprobabilistic-based weighting.

While the specific approach to estimat-ing the components of the model willvary from organization to organization,depending on the data available, somegeneral comments are appropriate.

With respect to threat rates, the initialestimate can be based on airline (orgroup of airlines) LOSA data or internalline observations combined with theLOSA archived data. Safety reports frompilots are a generally good indicator ofthreats (though people are generally bet-ter reporters of safety problems createdby others than of the errors committedby themselves!). Because such data inprinciple come from all flights, theyshould provide a more comprehensivecoverage of threats than the first source.By combining these two sources, an air-line can come closer to a good estimate ofthe rate at which flights are subject tothreats, along with the ability to reduce

22 ICAO JOURNAL

Data sources Threats Errors Undesired T/E E/U U/O OutcomesA/C state transition transition transition

ARCHIE ✔ ✔✔ ✔✔ ✔✔ ✔✔

Airline Line Obs ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

FOQA ✔✔

Safety Reports ✔✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

ADREP ✔ ✔✔

STEADES ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Bob Dodd is the Manager of Data Systems and Analysisin the Group Safety Office of Qantas Airways.

continued on page 36

Relative utility of various international and internal airline data sources in terms ofestimating rates for use in a risk model (checkmarks signify level of quality)

THE United Kingdom has had acomprehensive air cargo securityregime in place since August 1994

(see “New security regime requires thatcargo agents demonstrate compliancewith security regulations,”ICAO Journal December1997, pp 14-15).

Over the course of time,however, the U.K. Departmentfor Transport (DfT) becameaware that the “known cus-tomer” programme — animportant component of itssecurity regime — needed tobe overhauled to better meetsecurity requirements whilestill facilitating the movementof air shipments.

Consultation with stake-holders led to a proposal thatthe Department for Trans-port should appoint inde-pendent “validators” to carryout the assessments of poten-tial known customers and establish whetherthey could meet the security requirements,rather than have this function carried out byregulated agents and airlines. The newarrangements came into effect in August2003, and since that time all acceptance ofknown customers has been carried out bythe DfT-appointed validators.

To become a validator, an applicant mustdemonstrate a good knowledge of the U.K.air cargo regime. Once accredited, the gov-ernment-appointed validator is able tocarry out inspections for a three-year peri-od. Employees of airlines and regulated aircargo agents are no longer permitted to

AIR CARGO SECURITY

Air cargo security regime strengthenedby changes to known-consignor system

The independent validation scheme for accrediting known consignors has worked well since it was established by the United Kingdom in 2003, and further changes introduced last year will help minimize the vulnerability of cargo

JOHN WRIGHT

DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT

(UNITED KINGDOM)

perform this function because of the poten-tial for conflict of interest.

A validator may charge a consignor aset fee of £400 (U.S. $780), plus travellingexpenses. In the event it is necessary tomake a return visit to a potential knownconsignor, the validator is allowed tocharge an additional £200 fee. Details ofthe scheme, and how companies canbecome known consignors, are posted on

a DfT website. (In order to come into linewith European Union terminology,known customers have been redesignat-ed as “known consignors.”)

There is no requirement to become aknown consignor in order to move freightby air: it remains possible for any freightforwarder to submit cargo as “unknown.”Such cargo is then screened by acceptedmethods, by either an airline or a regulat-ed air cargo agent, for a fee.

An air freight originator that opts tobecome a known consignor simply con-tacts the dedicated DfT website to requesta validation visit. The DfT validator assesses

the suitability of the customer to become aknown consignor using a checklist devisedby the Department for Transport, anapproach that ensures thoroughness anduniformity. If the validator is satisfied withthe security arrangements, the customer isassigned a unique reference number(URN) and is awarded the security statusof known consignor. The freight forwarderis then entered on the list of known con-

signors, whose details areheld on a protected computer-ized database available only toairlines and regulated aircargo agents.

Known consignors needan annual validation in orderto retain their status. Theyare required to include theirURN on consignment securi-ty certificates accompanyingthe cargo, and regulated aircargo agents and airlines arein turn required to check thevalidity of the URN by refer-ence to the website.

Ministerial acceptance in2003 of the independent vali-dation system included arequirement that its opera-

tion be reviewed after three years. Thisreview was undertaken in the first half of2006. As part of the process, each con-signor was asked for views on the per-formance of the validation scheme.

The overwhelming response to thissurvey was positive. Many consignorssaid they had benefited from the help andadvice provided by the validators, and thatthey now felt more involved in the fightagainst terrorism, rather than feeling as

NUMBER 2, 2007 23

John Wright is a Senior Aviation Security Policy Adviser in the Transport Security and ContingenciesDirectorate of the U.K. Department for Transport.

continued on page 35

The United Kingdom has introduced changes to its securityregime designed to minimize the vulnerability of air cargo

VALUABLE information on theprevention of runway incursionscan be found at the ICAO Flight

Safety Information Exchange (FSIX)website, where it has been posted as partof an ongoing awareness and educationcampaign initiated in 2001.

Included at the website (www.icao.int/fsix/res_ans.cfm) is the ICAO Manual onthe Prevention of Runway Incursions(Document 9870), which offers best prac-tices to assist States in implementing run-way safety programmes. Completed in mid-2006, the manual was produced with sub-stantial support from the U.S. FederalAviation Administration (FAA), Eurocon-trol and Airservices Australia.

Also accessible at the FSIX website isthe ICAO version of the runway incursionseverity classification (RISC) calculator.This interactive tool encourages users tocategorize aviation incidents according tointernational criteria, providing theuniformity needed to facilitateanalysis and information sharingaround the world.

The website also features aninteractive educational tool that isavailable for downloading. Develop-ed by ICAO with the support ofEmbry-Riddle Aeronautical Univer-sity, the Runway Safety Toolkit is acompilation of the contributing fac-tors in runway incursions, illustra-tive examples and constructivesolutions, and is intended to sup-port any initiative focused on pre-venting runway incursions. Thetoolkit was designed to accomplishthree main objectives:• raise awareness of all thoseinvolved in aerodrome movements

RUNWAY SAFETY

Runway incursions pose a risk at everyairport, but accidents are not inevitable

Aware that effective safety programmes represent the difference between disaster and just another dayof routine operations, ICAO has assembled practical tools and educational material that can assistwith establishing runway safety initiatives

regarding the dangers that accompanyrunway incursion;• identify the most common hazards,and describe why they occur; and• provide practical solutions and bestoperating practices that will improve run-way safety.

The toolkit incorporates modules onkey elements of runway safety, namelyair traffic control (ATC), flight opera-tions, and aerodrome and managementresponsibilities. The interactive compo-nent is composed of quizzes to test theuser’s knowledge of the material, andsupplementary material includes a glos-sary, an appendix containing ICAO pro-visions on runway safety, and referencesand web links. Also featured are educa-tional posters suitable for display, infor-mation videos created by various coun-tries, and a compendium of selectedseminar presentations. In addition toEnglish, the entire narrative for thetoolkit is available in Arabic, Chinese,French, Russian and Spanish.

As noted in ICAO’s educational materi-al, runway incursions are one of the lead-ing categories of incidents on and in thevicinity of airports. Specifically, the areasof greatest concern are radiotelephonyphraseology; aviation language proficien-cy; ATC procedures; standards and per-formance requirements for equipment,aerodrome visual aids and charts; andflight operational and situational aware-ness. Efforts are under way to furtherenhance ICAO provisions and guidanceto the aviation community in these areas,as well as to create an awareness of theimportant role played by human factorsin the improvement of aviation safety.

Below follows an extract from theRunway Safety Toolkit’s narrative dealingspecifically with flight operations, andhighlighting some of the measures thatpilots can take to reduce the risk of incur-sions. Aside from pilots, the narrativeavailable at the website features modulesintended primarily for air traffic con-trollers, ground vehicle operators, and

decision makers who are removedfrom day-to-day operations.

Clear communicationsRunway incursions are an all-too-

common occurrence at airportsaround the world.

ICAO defines a runway incursionas, “Any occurrence at an aero-drome involving the incorrect pres-ence of an aircraft, vehicle, or per-son on the protected area of a sur-face designated for the landing andtake-off of aircraft.” The protectedarea also includes those portions ofthe taxiway located between theapplicable runway-holding positionsand the actual runway.

Movements around the aero-drome can be confusing, even for

24 ICAO JOURNAL

The Runway Safety Toolkit is a free, interactiveeducational tool available for downloading atICAO’s website

ICAO SECRETARIAT

the most experienced of pilots. Knowingwhich way to turn, and when, can be evenmore intimidating when coupled with lowvisibility or night operations. Confusioncan quickly compromise the safety ofoperations on the manoeuvring area.

Many errors, especially those thatresult in runway incursions, are causedby a failure to gain or maintain good situ-ational awareness. Research has shownthat the following factors often result indiminished situational awareness: incom-plete or misunderstood communications;lack of planning; workload peaks; distrac-tions; and loss of visual cues. By far, themost important cause of mistakes arisingfrom poor situational awareness is com-munication problems. Communicationdifficulties most often result from the useof non-standard phraseology and/or alack of language proficiency.

These communication shortcomingscause a discrepancy between what ATCintends and what pilots understand, andvice versa. Clear, accurate and timelycommunications are essential in estab-lishing and updating the “shared mentalpicture” necessary for good situationalawareness. There are a number of waysflight crews can ensure that transmis-sions are fully understood. In brief, pilotsshould always:• use standard phraseology, both inrequests and acknowledgements;• during readback of taxi instructions,include runway in use, any runways to beentered, landed on, taken off from, heldshort of, crossed, back-tracked upon, andall holding instructions;• use full call signs;• clear up uncertainties as they occur,before proceeding, either by use of in-cockpit resources or by contacting ATC;• when different primary languages areused by ATC and pilots, speak as slowlyand clearly as needed to ensure compre-hension of the common language;• always monitor and announce inten-tions on the common frequency at uncon-trolled aerodromes;• write down unfamiliar taxi instruc-tions, and have the aerodrome groundmovement chart in hand during taxi;• be aware of differences in standardphraseologies in use in different States(e.g. the ICAO standard phraseology toline-up an aircraft on a runway is “line up”

RUNWAY SAFETY

or “line up and wait,” but in some Statesother phrases are prescribed, such as“position and hold” or “taxi to positionand wait”);• be alert for similar call signs that couldlead to confusion;• avoid what is termed “expectation

bias,” which simplymeans that we oftenhear — or at least wethink we do — what weexpect to hear;• obey stop bars if illu-minated, even if clear-ance across the runwayhas been previouslyreceived (ATC may havehad a radio failure, or theaircraft’s receiver maynot be functioning); and• monitor ATC trans-missions to other aircraft,and visualize their posi-tions and movements.

On an operationalnote, pilots should bearin mind that a departingaircraft’s take-off clear-ance is never issued until the en-routeclearance has been transmitted andacknowledged by the crews concerned.

Planning measuresAerodromes have grown and increased

in complexity, and taxi routes havebecome more complex as well. Consider,for example, the complexity of the taxi-ways at London Heathrow (see adjacent

chart). Obviously, prior preparation andplanning is in order at Heathrow andother busy aerodromes, but the sameapplies to less busy aerodromes as well.The first and most basic step is to have anaerodrome chart in hand during the taxi,both in and out.

Without this simple measure, situation-al awareness can rapidly degrade. At thegate, or prior to descent, pilots need toreview and familiarize themselves withthe airfield layout and probable taxi routeoptions. NOTAMs and ATIS informationmust be included in this review, and allflight deck crew need to be briefed. Inparticular, the crew needs to know therunways along the taxi route. The crew

NUMBER 2, 2007 25

As illustrated by the chart for London Heathrow, pilotsneed to be well prepared for the taxi phase of flight, andit is essential to have an aerodrome chart in hand duringthe taxi in or out. Provisions for indicating “hotspots,” asdepicted in the detail from the ICAO sample aerodromechart, will become applicable this November.

should identify parallel runways and con-firm use of left, right or centre runway.The crew should also brief “hotspots”,which are locations on an aerodromemovement area having a history, orknown to pose a risk, of collisions or run-way incursions, and where heightenedattention by pilots and vehicle operatorsis necessary. Hotspots are marked onsome aerodrome charts (see ICAO sam-ple chart, page 27), but their usage is notuniversal yet (associated provisions inICAO Annex 4 and Document 4444,Procedures for Air Navigation Services –Air Traffic Management, will becomeapplicable on 22 November 2007).

Properly employed, such planningmeasures will help reduce the next imped-iment to situational awareness: workloadpeaks. Every pilot knows that if workloadbecomes excessive, the ability to monitorthe environment diminishes. Usually thisis a circumstance that occurs in the air, forexample, during instrument approacheswhen the work level is typically very high.

However, the same situation can be foundon the ground during taxi operations aswell. Time constraints, company and ATCdemands, etc., diminish the crew’s knowl-edge of their precise location on the aero-drome, or what other aircraft are doing.Quite often the result is an inadvertententry into or across a runway, and a proce-dural violation for the crew.

RUNWAY SAFETY

The solution, in addition to maximizingplanning and preparation before taxi, is toresist demands that compromise safety.Every pilot wants to cooperate to maxi-mize the efficiency of operations, but thisshould not be at the expense of safe oper-ations. Flight instructors and check air-men also should employ good judgementso they won’t boost the workload so highthat a runway incursion becomes morethan a remote possibility.

Distractions are inevitable. Usuallythey are manageable, but should theyhappen at the wrong time and be of suffi-cient magnitude, an accident may occur.At one time or another practically everypilot has climbed or descended throughan assigned altitude because of some-thing that happened on the flight deckthat diverted attention. The same thinghappens on the ground, but instead of flying through an altitude, the pilot taxiesacross a runway without clearance.

Distractions can be minimized byemploying “sterile cockpit” procedures

during taxiing — this is the elimination ofall conversation and activities not directlyrelated to the safe conduct of the flight.But some distractions cannot be con-trolled or predicted — ATC or companyqueries, caution or warning lights, or pri-ority cabin crew requests, for example. Inthese cases, pilots need to minimize theimpact of interruptions by dividing their

duties so that the entire flight deck is notfixated on the distraction. Depending onthe source of the interruption, the pilotshould advise the person or agency tostandby until the aircraft’s position is cer-tain. It should be noted that even essen-tial information, such as a route clear-ance, can be a distraction from the pri-mary task at hand, which is to taxi safelyto the designated runway. In a multipilotaircraft, only one member should be“head down” at any time, while a lonepilot should stop the aircraft in order tocopy anything but the simplest clearance.

While the great majority of runwayincursions occur during good visibility,the worst accidents typically happen dur-ing periods when visual cues are lost orseverely diminished by darkness, fog,dust, or rain, or even facing the sun whenit is at a low angle.

Low visibility operations require spe-cial precautions, because almost withoutexception, situational awareness isreduced. First and foremost, pilotsshould stop and ask for help any timethey are not certain of their position. ATCwould much prefer to provide a detailedprogressive taxi than to have an aircraftinadvertently end up on a runway. If nec-essary, a “follow-me” vehicle can be dis-patched at many aerodromes.

Lights should be used as appropriate tomake the aircraft more visible.

At unfamiliar airports, a crew membershould be assigned to provide a runningupdate of the aircraft’s progress using anaerodrome ground movement chart.

Once on the runway, pilots should com-pare the directional indicator with the com-pass reading, and also confirm that theheading is that of the active runway. If therunway is equipped for an instrument land-ing system (ILS) or microwave landing sys-tem (MLS), the crew should also confirmthe centreline guidance needle is where itshould be. On both take-off and landing,collision avoidance systems can be used toincrease situational awareness — this isespecially important in low visibility.

There are other actions pilots can taketo reduce the likelihood of runway incur-sions, but the measures highlighted abovehave proven to be highly effective in pro-moting runway safety. Pilots should reviewsuch measures on a regular basis toensure they use them to the utmost. ■■

26 ICAO JOURNAL

While the great majority of runway incursions occur during good visibility, theworst accidents typically happen during periods when visual cues are lost orseverely diminished

Ran

d K

. Pec

k

AN electronic system for collectingand disseminating air transportstatistics that has been imple-

mented by Canada reflects the need formore complete and timely data on the air-line industry, particularly the require-ment for an expeditious assessment ofthe impact of events such as 9/11 and theoutbreak of severe acute respiratory syn-drome (SARS) in 2003.

From the outset, the ElectronicCollection of Air Transportation Statistics(ECATS) Programme was set up in accor-dance with the Canadian government’s“smart regulation” agenda, aimed atreducing the administrative burden asso-ciated with regulations, including datareporting. A successful pilot project in2002 paved the way for the national roll-out of the programme in the followingyear (see “Pilot project illustrates feasibil-ity of collecting air transport data elec-tronically,” ICAO Journal Issue 3/2003,pp 8-10).

Several objectives characterize thisCanadian data initiative. Major goals havebeen to reduce the burden and cost of sta-tistical reporting by electronically linkingair carriers with Transport Canada, andworking voluntarily in close collaborationwith industry and other government part-ners on the handling of electronic infor-mation. A parallel objective has been tointroduce procedures to widen the rangeof data collection and dissemination,while also improving on the timeliness ofthe validated data to near real-time.Another primary objective has been tomaximize the use of state-of-the-art infor-mation technology (IT) in collecting anddisseminating air transport statistics elec-

AVIATION STATISTICS

State-of-the-art data collection systembrings benefits to stakeholders

Following successful implementation of a system for collecting and disseminating air transport dataelectronically, Canada is now ready to expand its programme beyond passenger data to air cargoactivity, and perhaps also to GA operations

MICHEL VILLENEUVE

TRANSPORT CANADA

tronically. Yet another important goal hasbeen to protect all data using standardInternet business processes establishedfor the e-commerce marketplace by thebanking industry.

There are a number of identifiable ben-efits for those participating in the pro-gramme. For airlines, the switch to elec-tronic filing can reduce the reporting bur-den and associated costs of statutoryreporting. Air carriers can access totalpassenger traffic at airports where theyconduct operations, and compare this

information with their own traffic num-bers. Transport Canada can also dis-pense to airports — with a carrier’s writ-ten permission — carrier-specific validat-ed traffic data that yield a standard andtimely set of figures that help preventcontention over various fee calculations.

Airports that participate in the pro-gramme stand to benefit by acquiringautomated access to authorized data.

Both aggregate and disaggregate data foreach airport improves the ability of air-port authorities to plan for the future andto have timely data for various other ini-tiatives. (As alluded to above, disaggre-gate carrier-level data are only madeavailable on a case-by-case basis, and onlywith the written permission of the carrierconcerned.)

Participation in the programme isadvantageous for other industry partnersas well, because current and accurate airtransport statistics impart a better under-

standing of industry trends and helpensure a more reliable analysis of airtransport developments.

By the end of 2006 Transport Canada’sECATS Programme was collecting infor-mation from 173 air carriers that gener-ate about 97 percent of Canada’s domes-tic and international passenger traffic.Generally speaking, nearly all NorthAmerican carriers serving Canada are

NUMBER 2, 2007 27

Under Phase II of Transport Canada’s ECATS Programme, electronic data collectionwill be assessed with the aim of adapting existing tools and procedures to the realities of general aviation

Bo

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submitting their data through the ECATSProgramme, as well as most major inter-national carriers with services to Canada.

A number of challenges had to be facedduring implementation of the first phase ofthe ECATS project. In the first place,Transport Canada had to ensure that allaspects of Canada’s privacy legislationwere adhered to, which meant that no per-sonal information related to any travellercould be captured by the ECATS system.Secondly, the differences in the IT capabil-ities of the various carriers operating inCanada had to be addressed. Some ofthese carriers manage very sophisticatedIT systems for capturing and housingdata, while other airlines, mostly thoseoperating in the domestic realm, havevery small operations and rely on basic ITcapability. Still other carriers outsource alltheir data capturing and reporting func-tions, compelling Transport Canada towork with third parties in the data-gather-ing exercise. Moreover, there was a verybroad range of software and hardwareused by the carriers and third-party datahandlers, making it necessary for theECATS system to interact with the entiregamut of computer systems.

Importantly, the key objective of mini-mizing the effort and costs of statisticalreporting by carriers was achieved by notrequiring that airlines submit their dataunder a standard format. Consequently, theECATS system was designed so that it canconvert all raw data received from the car-riers to a standard format in the database.

Under ECATS, data is collected in oneof two ways. One approach involves aweb-based service that provides for acompletely hands-off submission of datato Transport Canada. Information isrelayed each time an airliner closes itsdoors and pushes back from the terminal,

or alternatively is forwarded each dayfrom an internal database at a specifictime. Another approach is via a secureInternet site that allows for a carrier toeither upload a file or fill out a preformat-ted form that is then forwarded electron-ically to Transport Canada.

Whichever method is used, there is nocost to the carrier for transmitting dataacross the Internet. In either case, ofcourse, the information is encrypted auto-matically at the source and transmittedover the Internet in a manner similar to thebanking model. Transport Canada thenedits and validates all data submitted, main-ly through electronic processes. Section 51of the Canada Transportation Act providesfor the strict confidentiality of all informa-tion collected under the programme.

The fully automated web servicemodel, illustrated in the accompanyingfigure, has been particularly successful.Since its launch in 2004, 1.9 millionrecords have been received from 70 aircarriers, and an additional 14 carriers areexpected to begin using the automatedweb service in the near future.

During the 12 month-period ending on31 January 2007, web services generated

over half a million records. One of themajor strengths of the web application isthat it can operate without depending on aparticular software platform, meaning it isable to connect with programmes in theMicrosoft, UNIX, Linux and other environ-ments. It is also independent of the appli-cation used to create the data to be trans-mitted. The structure of a web service callconsists first of the assembly of therequired data elements, followed by theopening of the communications channelby initiating a SOAP [simple object accessprotocol] session, and finally delivery of areturn value. The bidirectional transmis-

sion is completed once the carrierreceives a response, with the entireprocess occurring in about three seconds.

Building on the success of ECATSPhase I, Transport Canada is now movingahead with Phase II. The second phase ofthe programme will address three maincomponents: origin and destination mod-elling, air cargo and general aviation (GA).

The origin and destination (O/D)model will build on existing technologydeveloped and implemented in Phase I,but with a different data layout. The collec-tion of operational data in Phase I is basedon a flight-centric model where all theinformation collected describes a specificflight event. The O/D model is passenger-centric, as the information obtained focus-es on the passenger itinerary. Since majorCanadian air carriers are currently obli-gated to report their origin and destinationinformation, adding an O/D component toECATS will allow them to meet thisrequirement in a more efficient and timelyfashion. In addition, current origin anddestination reporting is limited to an unbi-ased survey made up of 10 percent of tick-ets sold, whereas O/D collection throughECATS would amass data on all tickets,thus eliminating any margin of error in theO/D traffic statistics.

Under this next phase of ECATS, therange of data captured through the sys-tem will go beyond passenger statistics toinclude air cargo. ECATS web servicescan readily be adapted to collect air way-bill data on each individual item shipped,or can be used to collect aggregated datarelated to each flight. ECATS can also bemodified to provide either preflight orpost-flight statistics.

Finally, the ECATS team is examiningthe possibility of collecting data for thegeneral aviation segment of the industry,directly from the key players in theCanadian GA sector. GA figures are rele-vant to issues such as small airport viabil-ity and airport capacity, and allow for abetter understanding of this segment of

AVIATION STATISTICS

28 ICAO JOURNAL

Air carrier’s reporting engine

or database

Secure Socket Layer(SSL) tunnel

between carrier andTransport Canada

Transport CanadaWeb

Services

Quality assurance validation

Step 1. At the closing of a flight (aircraft pushback) or at a scheduled time every day, flight data is prepared by thecarrier and sent via the Internet using a standard Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) formatted call

Step 2. The inbound flight data arrives and is validated by the web services. Depending upon the quality of the data,it is stored in either a production, corrupted or superseded database. Stored data feeds into the quality assuranceprocess at Transport Canada

Step 3. The web service aknowledges the transmission by issuing a unique receipt number

Michel Villeneuve is Chief of Aviation Statistics at TransportCanada, Ottawa. Any questions about the ECATSProgramme, including those concerned with detailed tech-nical aspects not addressed in this overview, can be direct-ed to the author via e-mail (villenm@tc.gc.ca) or sent to theECATS mailbox (ECATS@tc.gc.ca). Additional informationon the programme is available from the website(www.tc.gc.ca/ecats).

continued on page 34

Structure of an ECATS web service call: the bidirectional transmission is completed oncethe carrier receives a response, a process that requires about three seconds

✓

NUMBER 2, 2007 29

Emissions trading guidelines developed by the ICAOCommittee on Aviation Environmental Protection(CAEP) at its seventh meeting held in February will beavailable to the organization’s 190 member States indraft form until September, when the complex issue willthen be taken up by the 36th Session of the ICAOAssembly, a triennial meeting of the organization’s 190Contracting States.

The draft guidance for States will be published with aforeword reflecting the views of the ICAO Council, thegoverning body of the organization. The foreword willnote that a majority of the member States on Councilhave indicated that any approach to inclusion of avia-tion in emissions trading schemes must be on the basisof mutual agreement.

CAEP agreed by consensus on guidelines for incor-porating international aviation emissions into nationalemissions trading schemes, consistent with the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change process,during its two-week meeting at ICAO headquarters inMontreal.

Some 250 participants from around the world took part inthe committee’s seventh meeting (CAEP/7), from 5 to 16February, which dealt with various environmental matters,and produced a number of recommendations based on thework of leading experts. CAEP itself is composed of expertsfrom 21 ICAO member States and major sectors of the avia-tion industry including airports, airlines and aircraft manufac-turers, as well as environmental non-governmental organiza-tions and United Nations bodies apart from ICAO.

Aside from dealing with the high profile emissions tradingissue, the meeting also produced recommendations on air-craft engine emissions and aircraft noise, and the trade-offsbetween these measures. More information on ICAO andCAEP can be found at the ICAO website (www.icao.int).

The committee’s proposed guidance on aviation emissionstrading provides preferred options for the various elements oftrading systems. In implementing any emissions trading schemethat includes aviation, CAEP/7 has recommended that:• aircraft operators be deemed the accountable internationalaviation entity for purposes of emissions trading;• obligations be based on the total aggregated emissionsfrom all covered flights performed by each aircraft operatorincluded in the scheme;• States, in applying an inclusion threshold, consider aggre-gate air transport activity such as carbon dioxide (CO2) emis-sions and/or aircraft weight as the basis for inclusion;• States begin with an emissions trading scheme thatincludes CO2 alone;• States apply the latest Inter-governmental Panel on ClimateChange definition of international and domestic emissions for

the purpose of accounting for greenhouse gas emissions asapplied to civil aviation;• States put in place an accounting arrangement that ensuresemissions from international aviation are counted separatelyand not against the specific reduction targets States mayhave established under the Kyoto Protocol; and• States consider economic efficiency, environmental integrity,and equity and competitiveness when determining trading units.

In addressing the geographic scope of an emissions trad-ing scheme, CAEP has advised States to weigh the differentoptions, with their various advantages and disadvantages,and begin any integration of foreign aircraft operators in trad-ing regimes on the basis of mutual agreement while also con-tinuing to analyse further options.

The guidance on emissions trading is part of a package ofrecommendations from CAEP that address the issue of emis-sions directly attributable to aviation in relation to local airquality and global climate effects. CAEP’s recommendationscover the reduction of emissions through technological,operational and market-based measures.

CAEP also established long-term technological goals foremissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and proposed guidanceon aircraft emissions charges related to local air quality.States are encouraged to evaluate the costs and benefits of

ICAO UPDATE Experts propose guidance on how to includeaviation in emissions trading schemes

CAEP members are pictured at the committee’s seventh meeting at ICAOheadquarters from 5 to 16 February. CAEP produced various recommen-dations on environmental matters, including proposed guidance on howStates can implement emissions trading schemes that include aviation.

ICAO JOURNAL ONLINEReaders are invited to register at ICAO’s website toreceive an e-mail alert as soon as each issue of theJournal becomes available online. To register for thisfree service, please visit

www.icao.int/icao/en/jr/subscribe.cfm

30 ICAO JOURNAL

the various measures available to them, with the goal ofaddressing emissions in the most cost-effective manner.

As in the past, CAEP underscored the importance of volun-tary initiatives in addressing the problem of emissions, andrecommended that information on voluntary emissions trad-ing programmes and other voluntary measures covered at themeeting be posted at the ICAO public website.

ICAO will convene a colloquium on aviation emissions inMay 2007. The colloquium, which will feature an exhibition, willprovide a forum on aviation emissions, and in particular theoutcome of the CAEP/7 meeting. Presentations will be given byrenowned environmental experts and scientists. More informa-tion on the ICAO Colloquium on Aviation Emissions, to be heldin Montreal from 14 to 16 May 2007, is available at the ICAOwebsite (www.icao.int/envclq/clq07). ■■

Amendments introduce usageof public InternetContracting States and international organizations have beenasked to comment by 16 May 2007 on ICAO’s plan to permitthe operational use of the public Internet for disseminatingand exchanging aeronautical messages that are not time crit-ical. The proposed change would introduce provisions inICAO Annex 3 and Annex 15, which address meteorologicalservices and aeronautical information services (AIS) respec-tively, and would become applicable in November 2010.

Usage of the public Internet for disseminating operationalmeteorological information and AIS products would augmentthe aeronautical fixed service. Guidance material on non-timecritical operational meteorological and aeronautical informa-tion and relevant aspects of the public Internet is provided inthe Guidelines on the Use of the Public Internet forAeronautical Applications (Document 9855). The documentwas prepared by an ICAO study group formed in 2003 for thepurpose of establishing guidelines and criteria for the accred-itation and qualification of providers of aeronautical informa-tion via the Internet. The guidance material it producedemphasizes the importance of approving Internet serviceproviders through a process that entails a thorough review ofsafeguards against information security threats. ■■

Member States visitedIn recent months ICAO Council President Roberto KobehGonzález and ICAO Secretary General Dr. Taïeb Chérif havemade official visits to a number of Contracting States to meetwith government officials and participate in various conferences.

The Council President visited Singapore in mid-Decemberto give a keynote address at the World Civil Aviation ChiefExecutives Forum organized by the Singapore AviationAcademy (see “First priority must remain safety: CouncilPresident,” ICAO Journal Issue 1/2007, pg 28). During hisvisit Mr. Kobeh González also met with government leadersto discuss safety and security-related topics.

The Council President also travelled to Thailand, where hetoured the ICAO Asia and Pacific Office in Bangkok. He metwith government leaders to discuss various aviation matters,in particular ICAO’s policies and practices related to environ-mental protection, the ratification of air law instruments, airtransport policy regulations, the ICAO safety and security

audit programmes, and the establishment of an ICAO-Thailand training programme aimed at assisting developingStates through fellowships for training at the Civil AviationTraining Centre in Bangkok.

The Council President was in Lima, Peru in mid-February toinaugurate the new premises of the ICAO South AmericanOffice. During his visit, he discussed ICAO’s safety and secu-rity audit programmes, air transport policy regulations, andtechnical cooperation activities in the South American andCaribbean regions with high-level officials.

The Secretary General was in the United States in mid-December to meet with officials of the Federal AviationAdministration (FAA), the National Transportation SafetyBoard (NTSB), the Transportation Security Administration(TSA) and the State Department. The discussions inWashington, D.C. focused primarily on issues related to avia-tion safety, security, the environment, and ICAO’s organiza-tional reforms and budget for the 2008-10 triennium. TheSecretary General also gave a keynote address at a receptionhosted in his honour by the International Air TransportAssociation (IATA).

Dr. Chérif was in India in early February, where he met withgovernment and industry officials to discuss various aviationissues including technical cooperation projects and activities,and progress made in India’s rapidly growing aviation sector.He also delivered the keynote address at the InauguralSession of the International Conference on Aviation, organ-ized in conjunction with the 6th Biennial AerospaceExposition “Aero India 2007,” which was held in Bangalorefrom 7 to 11 February. ■■

Fellowship training programmeextended to 2009The ICAO-Singapore Developing Country TrainingProgramme, which has been awarding fellowship training atthe Singapore Aviation Academy (SAA) since 2001, has beenextended for another three years to 2009 because of an over-whelming and continued demand. The 2007 programmefocuses on integrated safety management, safety oversight,civil aviation management, CNS/ATM developments, and air-craft accident investigation and management.

Various training sessions, ranging from five days to threeweeks in duration, are available from mid-June to late January2008. The fellowships are intended for participants nominatedby their respective governments. For more details, consult theSAA website (www.saa.com.sg/fellowships).

Since its inception, the joint programme has provided 203 fellowships to participants from more than 70 ICAOmember States. It is sponsored by the Singaporean Ministryof Foreign Affairs and is administered by ICAO’s TechnicalCooperation Bureau. ■■

Technical cooperationICAO confirmed recently that it is implementing two new large-scale technical cooperation projects in Guatemala andVenezuela. In addition, ongoing large-scale projects inArgentina, Greece, Panama and Somalia, as well as the UNMission in Kosovo, have been allocated additional funding. ■■

NUMBER 2, 2007 31

WAI SCHOLARSHIP RECIPIENT

Helen Emmanuel Umoh, of Nigeria, is congratulated byICAO Secretary General Dr. Taïeb Chérif on becomingthe first recipient of the ICAO Women in Aviation Interna-tional (WAI) Scholarship. Ms. Umoh, an air traffic con-troller based in Lagos, recently completed a six-weeksojourn in the Air Traffic Management Section at ICAOheadquarters, Montreal, where she learned about ICAOand participated in the ATM Section’s various activities.Pictured with the scholarship recipient and the SecretaryGeneral are Vince Galotti, Chief of the ATM Section (atleft) and Diana Wall, ICAO’s Focal Point for Women.

A global symposium held at ICAO headquarters at the end ofMarch brought regulators, air navigation service (ANS)providers, airport operators and airspace users together for afocused discussion on the performance of the world’s airnavigation system. Some 400 participants turned out for theevent of 26-30 March, which was seen as a follow-up to thepivotal 11th Air Navigation Conference (AN-Conf/11) held in2003. Although the Worldwide Symposium on Performanceof the Air Navigation System (SPANS 2007) was not mandat-ed to produce recommendations, it did articulate a way for-ward for both ICAO and symposium participants. Readerscan access all of the documentation and presentations of thesymposium on the web (www.icao.int/perf2007).

Today’s emphasis on performance, explained ICAOCouncil President Roberto Kobeh González at the opening ofthe five-day event, had arisen from the move to corporatizeair navigation services and its consequent pressure forgreater accountability. The best way to respond to this needlies in a performance framework for an air navigation systembased on the global ATM operational concept endorsed bythe aviation community in 2003.

“For the first time, and under the auspices of ICAO,” hesaid in recalling AN-Conf/11, “stakeholders of the world avi-ation community jointly developed a vision for an integratedand globally harmonized ATM system, with a planning hori-zon up to and beyond the year 2025. … In short, the opera-tional concept outlines a total system performance frame-work to achieve defined requirements.”

SPANS 2007 heard from numerous experts from civil avia-tion administrations, the industry and ICAO Secretariat duringseveral panel discussions that touched on every aspect of per-formance. The key areas where performance needs to bemeasured are capacity, cost-effectiveness, efficiency, environ-mental impact, flexibility, global interoperability, access andequity, participation, predictability, safety and security.

Citing the need for meaningful action that transcendsnational boundaries, Eurocontrol Director General VictorAguado highlighted an example of regional progress.Eurocontrol, he explained, established the fully independentPerformance Review Commission in 1997 to advise on thesetting of performance indicators, propose performance tar-gets and produce guidelines on economic regulation. Andwhile this body, which had proved effective in achieving har-monization, was designed to deal with Europe’s own com-plex and varied set of circumstances, “some of its featuresmay be of interest to other parts of the world,” he suggested.

Europe was also interested in learning from others, Mr.Aguado emphasized. “By exchanging information on theirprospective experiences, all regions will get an opportunity toraise their performance levels. … This regional approach canthen feed into a global performance monitoring and manage-ment framework.”

Global harmonization is critical if the aviation community is toestablish a global performance-based ATM system, assertedVictoria Cox, Vice President of Operations Planning at the U.S.Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Air Traffic Organization.

“Disparate systems won’t benefit our users … not in theglobal economy,” Ms. Cox continued. “We need a seamless

system, and that means working together to standardize thedefinitions and requirements, and developing a consistentway to measure performance.”

FAA is working very closely with the European Commissionand Eurocontrol to ensure commonality and interoperabilitywhere possible between the future air navigation systems ofthe United States and Europe, she stated.

FAA and Eurocontrol are also working with ICAO to devel-op joint performance-based navigation (PBN) familiarizationseminars, Ms. Cox added. A series of 10 seminars are tobegin in June 2007, tentatively in New Delhi, India, and will beconducted in all regions of the world.

Among the benefits of PBN, which provides for more directand precise flight paths, are increased safety, reduced fuelburn, more efficient traffic flows and reduced ATC communi-cations (see “Implementation of performance-based naviga-tion making notable progress,” and “Performance-basednavigation seen as key to global harmonization,” ICAOJournal Issue 3/2006).

The symposium identified several objectives related to per-formance of the world’s air navigation system. ICAO’s role isto advance work in the operational, technical, safety andeconomic areas, and to secure global interoperabilitybetween major air navigation initiatives. The organization isalso required to develop and promote minimum performancereporting requirements for ANS providers, develop a method-ology for measuring performance expectations, and prepareguidance material on facilitating collaborative decision mak-ing. Another goal is to accelerate PBN implementation.

SPANS 2007 also defined a way forward for the sympo-sium’s participants. Aside from implementing area navigation

Symposium heightens awareness of need for performance framework

32 ICAO JOURNAL

(RNAV) and required navigation performance (RNP) in accor-dance with the PBN concept, the participants are expectedto use the ICAO Global Air Navigation Plan (Document 9750)in performance-based transition planning; collaborate onestablishing performance indicators; employ ICAO-definedkey performance areas for performance management; anduse the Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP) as a basis formeeting safety performance objectives. More specifically,ANS providers need to measure and report on performance,while States have to implement safety programmes andestablish acceptable levels of safety. Service providers, air-craft operators, aerodromes and maintenance organizationswere reminded of their requirement to implement safety man-agement systems.

“Ultimately, the successful implementation of a global airnavigation system depends on cooperation among all mem-bers of the civil aviation community and involves greater inte-gration of ICAO regional offices and headquarters,” statedMr. Kobeh González.

“ICAO is committed to meeting expectations of all stake-holders,” he stated. “Together we have a formidable task aheadof us: to ensure the viability of the air navigation system of thefuture and its continued contribution to global economicdevelopment in a safe, secure and efficient manner.” ■■

ICAO Council appointmentToshihiro Araki has been appointedas the Representative of Japan onthe Council of ICAO. Mr. Araki’sappointment took effect on 26December 2006.

Mr. Araki is a graduate of OkayamaUniversity, where he obtained adegree in law in 1976. During 1977-78, he studied economics at Queen’sUniversity in Canada. Mr. Araki thenjoined the Foreign Ministry of Japan,where he has served in a number of

progressively responsible posts both at home and abroad.After serving in the Embassy of Japan in Vienna, Austria

from 1981 to 1985, Mr. Araki returned to Japan to serve in dif-ferent capacities, initially dealing with policies concerningscience and technology and later information and communi-cations. While in Tokyo he was assigned to the NorthAmerican Bureau, and was involved in talks with the UnitedStates on both civil aviation and the fishery.

In 1991 Mr. Araki was assigned to the Embassy of Japan inSofia, Bulgaria, as First Secretary, Economic Affairs, and was incharge of cooperation with Bulgaria in support of democratization.In 1993 he became the First Secretary of the Japanese Mission tothe Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD), in Paris, returning to Tokyo in 1996 as Chief, DeputyForeign Minister’s Office. He then went abroad as Deputy Head ofMission at the Embassy of Japan in Prague, Czech Republic(1998-2000) and subsequently as Chargé d’Affaires of the newlyopened Embassy in the Slovak Republic (2001-02).

Mr. Araki returned to Tokyo in 2003 as Director for free tradeagreement negotiations, and until 2006 represented Japan in talkswith a number of countries concerning various trade matters. ■■

T. Araki(Japan)

New agreement formalizescooperation with CBD SecretariatICAO and the Secretariat of the Convention on BiologicalDiversity (CBD), a part of the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), have signed a memorandum of under-standing (MOU) covering a number of administrative servic-es. The new agreement takes advantage of the proximity ofthe two UN bodies — both situated in Montreal, Canada —and formalizes cooperation in administrative areas.

In signing the agreement on 19 February 2007 (seephoto), ICAO Secretary General Dr. Taïeb Chérif indicatedICAO’s desire to also work more closely with the CBDSecretariat on technical issues of mutual interest, such asinvasive alien species and the trans-boundary movement ofgenetically modified organisms. As highlighted in ICAOJournal Issue 1/2007 (“Air transport remains a major path-way for invasive alien species,” pp. 22-23), the problem ofinvasive alien species is a serious issue for governments,and one that the CBD Secretariat and ICAO are workingtogether to address.

The agreement between the organizations was signed atthe opening of a major CBD meeting in Montreal thatattracted delegates from 54 countries around the world. Thearrangements for that meeting, which was held in ICAO’sconference centre, typify the kind of collaboration providedfor in the new MOU. The agreement reflects a wider effort tomaximize the resources of UN bodies everywhere, thusensuring more cost-effective and efficient service to theinternational community.

Dr. Ahmed Djoghlaf, the Executive Secretary of the CBDSecretariat, stated that the CBD looked forward to theenhanced collaboration on administrative arrangements,as well as on technical matters of major internationalimportance.

Under the MOU, ICAO will make its meeting facilitiesavailable to the CBD Secretariat on a priority basis, and willprovide support for setting up a computer network to serv-ice such meetings. ICAO will also facilitate recruitment oflinguistic interpreters at CBD meetings in its building, andwill provide printing and reproduction services. All of theservices are to be provided to the CBD on a cost basis.

ICAO Secretary General Dr. Taïeb Chérif (left) and Dr. AhmedDjoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on BiologicalDiversity, sign an MOU at ICAO headquarters on 19 February 2007 ■■

NUMBER 2, 2007 33

China’s safety improvementscontinued from page 10

including safety specialists. It is estimated that China willrequire more than 10,000 new safety experts, including inspec-tors, managers and safety officers, in the years ahead.

China needs to focus more intently on the development of safe-ty data reporting and analysis, as well as on more widespread uti-lization of safety technology. A special fund will be created forthese purposes. As well as intensifying its investment in all mattersrelated to safety, China will emphasize a closer cooperative rela-tionship with international organizations such as ICAO, and withcivil aviation administrations in other countries. All parties willbenefit from this greater cooperation, which will facilitate informa-tion sharing and promote safety enhancement worldwide. ■■

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Wind shear detectioncontinued from page 19

the pilot whenever wind shear is accompanied by storms. TWIP mayalso be available soon at Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatoryand Northwest Airlines recently completed a six-month trial run ofTWIP message alerts generated by the Hong Kong TDWR.According to the Hong Kong Observatory, if this trial is judged suc-cessful, future assessments may be conducted using wind shear, tur-bulence and storm information derived from the WTWS.

As indicated above, the ITWS — currently located at 13 approachcontrol units — is a significant ATM planning tool. Nine more

Global safety picturecontinued from page 10

safety are notable. While the overall safety level has certainlyimproved, there remain significant differences in regional safetylevels, as well as major differences in the level of safety in differ-ent types of operations. The final approach and landing phases —as well as take-off and initial climb — continue to account for thegreatest number of accidents, while controlled flight into terrain(CFIT) accidents result in the greatest number of fatalities.

Today’s safety issues are being addressed by employing tech-nological solutions. Modern aircraft incorporate materials andsystems that promote safety, and existing aircraft are being retro-fitted with equipment such as the airborne collision avoidancesystem (ACAS), the enhanced ground proximity warning system(EGPWS), the aircraft communications addressing and reportingsystem (ACARS) and advanced communications, navigation andsurveillance (CNS) systems that heighten situational awareness.

Equally important is the advent of safety management. Whilesafety management focused initially on implementing technologi-cal improvements, human factors became increasingly importantin the 1970s. In recent years, the focus has shifted to implementa-tion of safety management systems, an approach to safety thatholds organizations as well as individuals responsible for safetyperformance. ICAO has called for implementation of safety man-agement systems around the world, a development that stressesenhancing safety through risk management and the employmentof systematic and proactive management techniques. ■■

34 ICAO JOURNAL

approach control units will receive an ITWS by the beginning of2008, however, funding has not yet been secured for an additional12 systems to be located mostly in the central United States, wherethe mean number of convection days ranges from 40 to 60.

With the goal of extending weather safety and planning cover-age to medium-sized aerodromes, a test will be conducted atthree such facilities where the available weather information willbe generated by ITWS. If this proof-of-concept study proves suc-cessful and funding can be found, 42 additional aerodromes willreceive convective weather hazard information (excluding low-level wind shear) and weather planning products such as terminalwinds and TCWF.

In summary, ground-based wind shear detection systems canconstitute a vital component in safe operations. This is especial-ly true since the deployment of forward-looking wind shear sys-tems on aircraft has been significantly less than expected forsome airlines. The increase in regional jet service will also limitthe potential number of aircraft with advanced warning of windshear, because currently such aircraft cannot be equipped withforward-looking wind shear systems. Further system enhance-ments — the TDWR RDA upgrade, algorithm design changes,radar products generator capabilities and the use of terminalweather information among them — will allow for future weath-er product improvements. These will include detecting windshear with less dependence on storm verification, decreasingthe initial gust front detection time, processing frequent gustfront detections, and issuing headwind gain alerts and cross-wind alerts. As explained, the problem of dry wind shear detec-tion in the western U.S. can be resolved; however, a nationalprogramme to address this issue has not yet been initiated.

Several weather efficiency products, as outlined above, canincrease aerodrome capacity. The ITWS TCWF and terminalwinds are examples of weather product efficiency tools. Therehas also been progress in predicting thunderstorms, although

Electronic data collectioncontinued from page 28

the industry. The focus at this stage is on establishing needsand determining which data elements can be collected. Oncethese have been defined, electronic data collection will beassessed with the aim of adapting existing ECATS tools andprocedures to the realities of general aviation.

The advent of ECATS has permitted Transport Canada tobecome the heart of airline operational data collection for theCanadian government. But to proceed from being a simple col-lector of information to a data hub, it was necessary for ECATSto incorporate a secure dissemination application for use bystakeholders. The carefully crafted process means that once aircarriers active in Canada have formally agreed to have theirdata communicated to the airports they serve, TransportCanada forwards this information via its secure channel. Withthis process in place, airlines need not make multiple filings oftheir operational statistics to multiple airport authorities. Theobvious advantage is the savings of time, effort and cost.

A successful dissemination pilot project in which TransportCanada granted one operating authority access to data for sixcarriers serving its airport has already been carried out. TheECATS team is now working to increase the number of airlineparticipants with the hope of meeting the growing interest fromboth air carriers and airport authorities in the efficient, reliableand secure reporting solution available from ECATS. First andforemost in this approach to data dissemination is TransportCanada’s pledge to respect all legislative provisions regardingdata confidentiality.

In addition to the air transport industry, Transport Canadaforesees some important benefits in leveraging the ECATSapproach to support data collection from other transportationsectors. Testing is now being undertaken with a trucking com-pany and a courier operation to obtain data on both transportedgoods and chosen itinerary, using global positioning system(GPS) data. The GPS data which provides the complete itiner-ary of the transported goods can be collected directly throughthe web service approach.

While the layout of the data fields vary greatly from onemode to the next, the flexible structure of ECATS permits col-lection across different modes. From a conceptual viewpoint, alltransportation statistics of interest pertain to either the vehicu-lar mode or content, with both tied together by routing informa-tion. Therefore, by being independent of the carrier’s mode andits computer-operating environment, ECATS offers the flexibil-ity and capacity to become a secure data collection portal for allforms of transport.

The success of ECATS has not gone unnoticed. In 2005 theprogramme won a gold medal award at a Canadian government

PUBLIC KEY DIRECTORY

The ICAO Public Key Directory (PKD), an ICAO-coordi-nated service to facilitate authentication of electronicmachine readable travel (MRTD) documents, enteredoperation recently after Australia became the fifthmember State to submit its notice of participation toICAO. Simon Clegg, Representative of Australia on theCouncil of ICAO (centre), is pictured on 6 March 2007presenting Australia’s notice of participation to Dr. TaïebChérif, the Secretary General. At left is ICAO CouncilPresident Roberto Kobeh González.

the capability to estimate convective weather one hour inadvance remains under the two hours desired by ATS.

As air traffic continues to grow, the accuracy and timelinessof weather products derived from various systems will play alarge role in capacity gains, provided these meteorological toolsare integrated into automated air traffic management tools andwake vortex avoidance systems. ■■

NUMBER 2, 2007 35

Air cargo securitycontinued from page 23

though they were a passive, potential victim of it. Many comment-ed on the cost of validation, but only a minority considered thatthis was excessive, or felt the cost should be funded by taxation.

The review found that following the introduction of independ-ent validation, the standards of security at known consignorpremises had greatly improved. Staff originating known cargoare subjected to background checks and vetting, and aretrained in aviation security. Known cargo, once identifiable assuch, is secure while on the premises, and remains so duringtransit to the airline or regulated agent. Sites are subject tounannounced compliance inspections by DfT personnel, whocan revoke the known consignor status should they discoverthat the standards have been allowed to slip. Where known con-signor status is lost, the industry is informed of the fact, andany air cargo tendered from that consignor is then regarded asunknown and screened accordingly.

While the findings were generally positive, the security reviewalso recommended a number of changes. One of these stemmedfrom the observation that there existed a disparity in the numberof inspections completed by individual validators, with someundertaking more than 100 validations annually, while othersperformed only one or two per year. This raised concerns aboutthe ability of the relatively inactive validators to render validjudgements, since they did not have a regular opportunity toexercise their skills. Consequently, the Department forTransport implemented a requirement that all validators under-take regular refresher training. It has also changed the allocationprocess: the Department for Transport now assigns validators tocustomers, whereas the original procedure allowed the cus-tomer to select a validator from the website list.

The review also found that there were too many accreditedvalidators (97) given the number of known consignors (1,500).As the accreditation period for consignors coincided with thereview, it was decided that each validator should undertakecompulsory competency testing and a structured interviewbefore he or she could be considered for reaccreditation. Theresult of this new procedure has been a decline in the numberof validators being reaccredited for a further three-year period,to a total of 70.

In July 2006, the Department for Transport organized, onbehalf of the European Commission, an international workshopon independent validation of known consignors. Over 20

technology exhibition for its role in enhancing governmentoperations. The ECATS model initially designed for theCanadian air transportation industry has also generated inter-est from other government bodies and from airport authoritiesoutside Canada.

One of the main strengths of ECATS has been its ability toforge partnerships with stakeholders and across governmentdepartments. Airlines and airports realize the potential benefitsof this programme and have often shown themselves to be itsstrongest proponents. In light of the highly competitive envi-ronment in which air carriers operate, these companies wel-come measures that streamline their regulatory obligations. ■■

36 ICAO JOURNAL

Safety data integrationcontinued from page 22

the risk to a reasonable level by using the details inherent in thesafety report data.

With respect to error rates, initial estimates of error rateswould generally come from internal LOSA-type data, combinedwith data from ARCHIE. While safety reports of crew errors areavailable, these are unlikely to be consistently reported andtherefore provide only limited value in a quantitative sense(they do, of course, provide substantial value in a qualitativesense). An additional estimate of error rates is provided bycombining the estimated threat rates with the transition threat-to-error rates. Again, a Bayesian approach can be used to pro-vide a best estimate that reconciles the three elements.

For the transition from errors to undesired aircraft states,again the estimate can be based on the internal LOSA data com-bined with ARCHIE data. Indications from analysis of ARCHIEdata is that the pattern of the relationship between threats anderrors is fairly stable between airlines. It is reasonable to sup-pose, therefore, that this estimate would be quite reliable.

With an initial approximation of the error rate in hand, datafrom FOQA could then be used to improve the estimate formost categories of undesired aircraft states. Finally, safetyreport data provide a reasonable estimate of this ratio, since itcan be assumed that the most severe undesired aircraft stateswill be reported by crews.

With respect to outcome rates, these are based on ICAOADREP and IATA safety report data, including informationfrom STEADES. Outcome rates can potentially be updated toinclude the airline’s actual record (using the Bayesian estimateagain). This boils down to assessing statistically whether theactual airline record over a specified period of time is signifi-cantly different from the industry average.

Transition from undesired aircraft states to either an acci-dent or serious incident would be based on analysis of unde-sired aircraft states reflected in ADREP and STEADES data,according to the current analytical method (i.e. integratedthreat analysis). This would provide an estimate of which unde-sired aircraft states result in accidents or serious incidents, butwould not highlight undesired states that do not result in anaccident or serious incident. By comparing the rates of unde-sired aircraft states with the outcome rates and the informationobtained from ADREP and STEADES analysis, we can find themissing elements.

European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association(EFTA) States were represented, with four EU member Statestaking the opportunity to explain how they undertook the inde-pendent validation of known consignors.

The U.K. Department for Transport has found the independ-ent validator scheme to be cost efficient and effective in raisingthe security standards at sites originating known cargo, and hasconcluded that it provides a pragmatic, practical and effectivemethod for minimizing the vulnerability of air cargo. TheEuropean Commission is expected to propose shortly that inde-pendent validation of known consignors become a requirementacross the European Communities. ■■

38 ICAO JOURNAL

CFIT preventioncontinued from page 15

of CFIT, as described above, call for action by States, operatorsand airframe manufacturers. States need to improve the provi-sion of crucial terrain and aeronautical information, as requiredby ICAO standards; operators must update their systems, a taskthat can be achieved at very little cost; and airframe manufac-turers should provide operators with the necessary service bul-letins that affect EGPWS/TAWS operation.

The measures cited above would considerably reduce therisk of CFIT accidents by eliminating the possibility of therebeing no warning when a prompt warning should be forthcom-ing. Equally important, they would lower the risk of CFIT byreducing the possibility of navigation and position shift errorsand the occurrence of false warnings.

It is also necessary, in the pursuit of safety, to make availableto everyone the information and lessons learned from theinvestigation of incidents and accidents. To this end, it is essen-tial that all near-CFIT incidents and CFIT accidents are report-ed and investigated. ■■

The overall model provides for linked estimates. Multiplyingthe threat rates by the transition-to-errors matrix provides anestimate of error rates and so on, through to undesired aircraftstates. Extension to outcomes would not add value as userswould be forced to compare undesired aircraft states and out-come rates to estimate the undesired states that do not result inaccidents or serious incidents. As such, the calculation can beimproved by iteratively applying this process until a consistentset of estimates is established.

The approach outlined above offers a structured method ofcombining all the safety data available to an airline or otherorganization with an interest in aviation safety. The risk modelthat results can be used to determine, for example, which typesof adverse outcomes pose the greatest risk, and can indicatewhich improvements in upstream safety performance wouldmaterially reduce that risk. This approach can show, for instance,which undesired aircraft states contribute most significantly torisk. If these undesired aircraft states relate to specific FOQAparameters, clear improvement targets can then be set.

The model also provides a basis for incorporating lessonslearned from investigations of adverse events. For example, ifwe are looking at the transition from unstable approach to out-comes in the categories of CFIT, landing short, hard landingand runway excursion, it would be useful to look at what couldor did affect the outcome from the point that the crew decidedto continue with the landing. Such a review could focus on flightcrew training, technical and human factors, procedures,ground proximity warning system (GPWS) operation, airportand runway design (e.g. runway centreline lighting).

Finally, the model offers a breakthrough by promising toaddress the risk precursors to adverse outcomes in a quantita-tive fashion. This in turn offers the ability to better assess thebenefits from safety improvement — the type of assessmentthat is increasingly relevant in today’s economic conditions.While at this stage the promise should not be oversold, it issurely worth pursuing. ■■

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Safety Management Manual (Doc 9859)1st Edition, 2006Reprinted November 2006, 316 pagesISBN 92-9194-675-3Order No. 9859 … $167

Emergency Response Guidance for Aircraft IncidentsInvolving Dangerous Goods (Doc 9481)2007-2008 Edition, 90 pagesISBN 92-9194-788-1Order No. 9481 … $45

Technical Instructions for the Safe Transport of Dangerous Goods by Air (Doc 9284)2007-2008 Edition, 814 pagesISBN 92-9194-782-2Order No. 9284 … $125

Supplement to the Technical Instructions for the SafeTransport of Dangerous Goods by Air (Doc 9284)2007 – 2008 Edition, 178 pagesISBN 92-9294-823-3Order No. 9284SU…$96

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