crop monitoring in europe -...

1

MARS Bulletin, Vol. 21, No. 1 (2013)

*** * * * * * * *** European Commission

Crop monitoring in Europe MARS Bulletin Vol. 21 No. 1 (2013)

EU27: Well-advanced hardening and no frost kill so far

WINTER CEREALS Hardening index as,of 28 Jan

•

For the most part, above-average temperatures were recorded in western Europe, while eastern regions were colder than usual. Precipitation was abundant in western Europe but rather scarce in the Iberian Peninsula, Maghreb and Sicily.

Content: 1. Agro-meteoro logical overview

2. Atlas maps

The Bullet in covers the period from 11 Dec until 28 Jan

The hardening of the winter crops is well advanced. Based on our simulations, no frost kill damage is expected between now and the end of January.

MARS Bulletin, VoL 21 No. 1 (2013)

1. Agro-meteorological overview

Weather conditions were variable during the considered

period all over Europe. Mostly above-average

temperatures were recorded in western Europe, while

the eastern regions were colder than usual. Active

temperatures (Tbase>0°C) exceeded the average in the

British Isles, western countries of Europe and some

areas of the western Mediterranean. The surplus reached

80-150 growing degree days in Fronce, Germany, the

Netherlands, Belgium and smaller spots of Spain, the

Observed temperatures

Since 11 December, weather conditions were colder than

usual in eastern Europe. On the contrary, western Europe

experienced higher temperatures than the long-term

average (L TA}. The positive thermal anomaly was

especially evident in France, Germany, the Benelux

countries and the Czech Republic, where the delay in

crop development due to late sowing or unfavourable

autumn weather was diminished. The mild weather

slowed down the hardening process of winter cereals in

this region, maintaining crop vulnerability.

The second dekad of December began with a cold snap

across Europe, but from mid-December onwards

perceptible warming started from the direction of the

Atlantic Ocean and temperatures fluctuated above the

average in the western part of the continent. On

occasion, the daily maximum almost reached record

temperatures. While western Europe experienced mild

conditions, the European part of Russia was subject to

very cold weather, but conditions in this area also

became milder towards the end of December. January

2

Czech Republic, Italy and Slovenia. Precipitation was

abundant in western Europe, at the coastline of the

eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea and the

southern Black Sea region. Snow partially covered

Europe from Germany to Russia and provided protection

for the winter crops against severe frosts. The hardening

of the winter crops is in accordance with the seasonal

norm. Based on our simulations, no frost kill damages

are expected between now and the end of January.

started with anomalous high temperatures over Europe.

The temperatures generally exceeded the LTA by 2 - 8°C

with the exception of the Iberian Peninsula, the Black

Sea Region and the easternmost parts of Russia. An

inflow of cold arctic air started from 7 January,

significantly decreasing temperatures initially in the

eastern and later in the western parts of Europe.

In general, frost events remained in the moderate range

(>- l0°C) in the lowlands of the UK, France, Germany,

Spain, Italy and Greece. However, in the eastern

countries of EU-27, Ukraine, Belarus and Turkey the

temperatures fell to between -10 and -20°C, and

temperatures of less than -20°C were recorded in the

very eastern and northern parts of Europe. Only the

south-western region of I re land, the shore of the Iberian

Peninsula, and some coastal area of Italy and Greece,

the southern Islands of the Mediterranean Sea and

North-Africa remained frost free.


TEMPERATURE SUM

from : 11 December 2012 to : 15 January 2013

Deviation:

Year o f interest - L TA

Base tempera ture: 0

Un it: degree days (Celsius)

• >=150

• >=100-<150

• >= 80- < 100

>=50 - <80

>= 20-<50

>= -20 - < 20

>=-SO - < -20

>=-80 - < -50

• >=-100-<-80

• >=-150 - <,-100

• < -150 ••

17/01120 13

resoluhon. 25x25 km

MINIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURE Lowest values


Year of interest (YOI)

Unit: degrees Celsius

• <= ·35

• >-35- <= -30

• > ·30 · <= ·25

• >-25-<= ·20

> -20- <=-10

> -10 - <= -5

> -5 - <=0

• > 0· <= 5

• >5-<= 10,

• >10 - <=15 ... /

17/0112013

resoluhon. 25x25 km

Observed rainfall and snow cover

(c)e..r.,.,...,~ 201!.

-..ce.--c----i,· AL.TERRA--

(c)a..-Ur-. 20U. -..ce.-_,,c_ - - i,· AL.ttMIA--.

Precipitation was abundant and exceeded 100 mm in

the Atlantic region including the British Isles, France,

Germany, Denmark, southern Noiway, the north-western

Iberian Peninsula and the Alpine region. The extremely

wet weather conditions experienced since the end of

September presumably caused problems during sowing

and early crop development in England.

Precipitation was also abundant in the eastern Adriatic,

the areas surrounding the Aegean Sea, Turkey, along the

eastern coastline of the Mediterranean Ocean and in the

Caucasus.

On the contrary, precipitation was scarce in Spain,

central Italy, Sicily, the western half of Romania, the

Maghreb countries and extended territories of Russia,

where precipitation was less than half of the LT A. The

dry weather led to favourable sowing conditions in

Spain, but significant precipitation is needed in the near

future to replenish the soil moisture storage for the next

crop cycle.

3

AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE Averaged values


Oev1aHon

Year of interest - L TA

unrt: d@Qfl!l!S Cl!IS1uS

• < -8 (cooler in YOI)

• -8 - -6 (cooler in YO!)

• -6- -4 (cooler m YOI )

-4 - -2 {cooler m YOI )

-2 - < -0.5 (cooler in YOI:

no difference

>0_5 - 2 (warmer m YOI)

• 2 - 4 (warmer in YOI)


• 6 - 8 {waml8; In 'Y,01)

17/01!2013

resolutl0f'l:25x25km

NUMBER OF COLD DAYS


Devi a hon:


Mm1mum temperature (° C) <= O

Unit: days

<= -5

• . 5 .. 1

· ·1 · 1

• 1 ·5 5 • 10

• >10

16/01!2013

resolutl0f'l:25x25km

(c)~ur-2!012, _ ...... ..._..c-. f'l-Keuol"'l' AllatAA.~

In mid-December, snow covered Scandinavia and an

extended area between eastern France and the Ural

Mountains, including most of the Balkan Peninsula and

Turkey. Due to the mild weather of December and early

January the snow cover melted and disappeared from

lowlands of western and central Europe. After 5 January

snow cover was gradually re-established from eastern

border of the EU to eastern half of France.

Winter crops are fully or almost fully hardened in the

northern agricultural zones of Europe as well as in the

region from Poland to Romania and further eastwards

including Belarus, Ukraine and Russia with the exception

of smaller regions close to the Black Sea. Given the

medium-range weather forecast until 28 January, the

frost tolerance of winter crops is expected to increase

significantly in Germany and on the Balkan Peninsula.

On the basis of our frost-kill model, no frost damages

have been simulated or are expected between now and

the end of January.


RAINFALL Cumulated values

from : 11 December 2012 to : 15 Jan uary 2013


Un it: mm

• >=150

• >=100 - <150

>= 80- < 100

• >=50 - <80

:n;3Q-<50

• >=20-<30

>= 10 - < 20

>= 0 - <= 10

17/01120 13

resoklhon. 2SIC.25 km

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL

rrom : 11 December 2012 to :15January2013


Rain (mm)> 5

Unit: days

=O 1 - 3

4 - 5

• 6 - 7

• 7 - 9

• >=10

(c)eui-!k... 2011. -----c---i,· AL.TERRA--.

~"""=::::.,1~ I 11<>112013 ~ll00. 2SK2Skm

-----~~---------~l>JAl.TERIU.-



Dev1atlon


Unit:%

• >= -100-< -50

>= -50 - < -30

>= -30 - < -10

>= -10-< 10

>=10-<30

n;30-<50

• >=SO-< 100

• >= 100-<1.;," • >=150 • /

17/01!2013

res<Mubon: 25x25 km

SNOW DEPTH Highest values


Year of Interest (YOI)

Unit: cm • o • >1 <=5

>5 - <= 10

> 10 - <= 20

> 20

I 11<>1!2013 ~tJOn : 25x25km

(c)~0.-2012, ___ ...... _ c-. ~"'l' AllutRA.__.,,.,..,

:!!:==:~ ~"'l' Al.lERAA-

Weather forecast for the coming days 16 January - 28 January

Cold weather with less precipitation is forecast for southern Europe, and warmer than average

northern and central Europe, abundant precipitation in temperatures in regions around Black Sea.

Precipitation forecast

Low pressure systems over the Atlantic and almost daily basis during the forecast period. Locally,

Mediterranean will dominate the weather over western

and southern Europe. Abundant precipitation is therefore

forecast for western and northern parts of the Iberian

Peninsula, Italy, the western parts of the Balkan

Peninsula and western Turkey. In these regions,

significant precipitation is expected to occur on an

Temperature forecast

Warmer-than-average conditions are forecast for the

Balkan Peninsula and regions around the Black Sea.

4

the total amount of precipitation could exceed the long

term average by more than 150 mm. Very scarce

precipitation is expected in northern and north-eastern

Europe, northern Germany, northern France, the Baltic

countries, Benelux and eastern Turkey.

Average daily air temperatures over coastal regions

around the Black Sea are expected to exceed the long-


term average by 4-8 • C. Consequently, the cumulated

active temperature (Tbase=O °C) could exceed the long

term average by more than 50 growing degree days .

Other parts of Europe will experience colder-than

average conditions. The strongest temperature anomaly

is expected in the Baltic countries, western Russia,

northern Poland, southern Scandinavia and the Benelux

RAINFALL ECMWF ope-rational model ( starting 18 January 2013

Cumulated values

from : 16 January 2013 to : 26 January 2013


un it: mm • >= 150

• >= 100 - < 150

>= 80 - < 100

• >= 50-<60

>= 30-<50

• >= 20 - <30

>= 10- < 20

>= 0-<= 10

1&'0112013 resolution: 25x2S km

.,

TEMPERATURE SUM ECMWF operational model (starting 18 January 2013


Deviation:


Base tempereture: 0

Unit: degree days (Celsius)

• >=80 - < 100

• >•50-<80

>=30-<50

>= 20 - <30

:>= -20 - < 20

>= -30 - < -20

>= -50 - < -30

• >=-80 - <-50

1&'01120 13

resoluhon. 25x25 km

NUMBER OF COLD DAYS ECMWF operational model (starting 18 January 2013



Minimum temperature (0 C) <= -18

Unit: days • o I. :::

4 - 5

>= 6

1&'0112013

resoluhon. 25x25 km

~:::.,1~ _..,Al.TEltl!AoonmrW!o!

(c)e..r.,.,...,U.-201!,

-..ce.--c----i,· Al.TERRA--

5

countries. More than six cold days with minimum air

temperatures of less than -18 • C are expected to occur

over parts of north and north-eastern Europe. In the next

few days and at the end of the forecast period, the

minimum temperature is expected to drop below -18 ' C

in parts of central Europe (southern Germany, the Czech

Republic, and Poland)_

RAINFALL ECMWF operational model (starting 18 January 2013

Cumulated values


Deviahon·


Unit: mm

• -1 00/-50

-50/-10

-10110

10150

• 50/100

• >100

1&'01/2013 resolution: 25x25 km

AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE ECMWF operational model ( starting 18 January 2013

Averaged values


Deviation



• < -8 (cooler in YOI)

• -8 - -6 {cooler in YOI)

• -6 - -4 {cooler in VOil

-4- -2 {cooler m YOI)

-2 - < 0 (cooler m YOI)

no difference

>O - 2 (warmer m YOI)

2 - 4 (warmer in YOI)



• > 8 (warmer in YOI)

1&'01/2013

resolution: 25x25km

MINIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURE ECMWF operational model ( starting 18 January 2013

Lowest values


Year of interest {YOJ)


• <= -35

• > -35 - <• -30

• > -30 - <= -25

> -25 - <= -20

> -20 -<= -10

>-10-<=-5

> -5 - <=0

• >0 - <=5

• >S - <= 10

• > 10 -<= 15

• >15- <= 20

1&'01/2013

resolutKX'l : 25x25km

(c) l'-U.-2012. -..Joont-C.... ~i.,·Al.lfltlU.--

(c) l:_,un...2012. --.Joont-C--. ~llf"Al.lfl":fl.ll---...

(c)~U.-2012.

-Joont-C.... ~l>JAl.lfRAA----

2. Atlas maps


from : 11December2012 to : 20 December 2012


Unit: mm

>= 0 - < 1

• >= 1 - < 10

>= 10 - <20

>=20 - <30

>=30 - <40

• >=40-<60

• >=60 - <80

• >= 80 - < 100

• >=mo- < 1so

• >= 150- < 200

• >= 200- < 300

• >= 300

113/01/2013

resoluti00:2Sx2S km


from : 21 December 2012 to : 31 December 2012


Unit: mm

>= 0- < 1

• ::>: 1 - < 10

>= 10 -< 20

>=20 - <30

>= 30- < 40

• >=40 -< 60

• >= 60-<80

• >= 80 - < 100

• >= 100 - < 150

• >= 150 - < 200

• >= 200 - < 300

18/01/2013 resokltion: 25x25 km




Unit: mm

>= 0- < 1

• >= 1 - < 10

>= 10 -< 20

>=20 - <30

>=30 - <40

• >= 40- < 60

• >=60 -< 80

• >= 80 - < 100

• >= 100 - < 150

• >= 150 - < 2eo

• >= 200- < 300

18/01/2013 resotution: 25x25km

•

• =:.


Precipitation

(•)(~1Jnoor>2012.

---~hc.ntr..

~.,.M.UMA-

(•)!.._,Unoanl012. _,_,._"""'" -.-tiii·""-n:MtA--

(•)(.._,1Jnoor>l012. ---~nc.nir..

--bjl"M.TfM!A-

6


from : 11December2012 to : 20 December 2012

Deviation:

Year of interest- LTA

Unit: %

• >=-100 - <-80

• >=-80- <-50

>= -50- < -30

>=-30 - <-10

• • •

>=10-<30

1&'01/2013

resolution: 2Sx25 km


Deviation:

Year of interest- LTA

Unit:%

• :>: -100 - < -80

• >= -80- < -50

>= -50- < -30

>=-30 - <-10

>= -10 - < 10

>= 10- < 30

>= 30 - <50

• >= 50 - < 80

• • >= 100

18/01/2013 resokltion: 25x25km



Deviation:

Year of interest - LTA

Unit: % • >= -100 - < -80

• >= -80- < -50

>= -50- < -30

>= -30 - < -10

>=-10 - < 10

>=10 - <30

>= 30 - < 50

• >= 50 - <80

• >= 80 - <10e-• .,,-

• >= 100

18/01/2013 resolution: 25x25 km

• =-

•

• =:.

(•)(~l.Jnoor>1012.

---~ .. c..ir. ~.,.M..H:MA-

(•)!.._,Unoanl012, __ ,._,,c..in __...,. . ..._TfM!A--

(•)(.._,1Jnoor>l012. ---~nc.nir..

--bjl"M.TfM!A-

MARS Bulletins 2013

Date Publication Reference

21 Jan Agromet. analysis Vol. 21 No. 1

25 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 21 No. 2

25 Mar Agromet analysis and Vol. 2 1 No. 3

yield forecast

22 Apr Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No. 4

remote sensing and

yield forecast

21 May Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No. S

remote sensing, yield

forecast and pasture

analysis

17 Jun Agromet analysis, Vol. 2 1 No. 6



update

22 Jul Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No. 7


forecast , pasture

update and rice

analysis

26 Aug Agromet analysis and Vol. 21 No. 8

yield forecast

16 Sep Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No 9



update

21 Oct Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No. 10


forecast, pasture

analysis and rice

analysis

25 Nov Agromet analysis and Vol. 2 1 No. 11

yield forecast

16 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 2 1 No. 12

As the Commiss ion's in-house science servi ce, the Joint Research Centre's miss ion is to provide EU po licies with independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support throughout the whole policy cycle. Working in close cooperation w ith policy Directorates-General, the JRC addresses key societal challenges wh ile stimulating innovation through developing new standards. methods and too ls. and sharing and transferring its know-how to the Member States and international community.

The mission of the JRC-IES is to provide scientific-technical support to the European Union's po licies for the protection and sustainable development of the European and global environment.

The current MARS* Bulletin is an EC publication from

AGRl4CAST (JRC/IES MARS Unit)

All MARS Bulletins are available under:

http://mars.jre.ec.e uropa.e u/mars/Bu lleti ns-Pu bli cations

MARS agro-meteorologicol data and is available at:

http://www.marsop.info

Analysis and reports

A. Bussay, A. Ceglar

Reporting support:

G. Mulhern, I. Biavetti

Edition

B. Baruth, S. Niemeyer

Data production

MARS unit AGRl4CAST/JRC, AL TERRA (NL),

Meteoconsult (NL) and VITO (BE)

Contact

JRC-IES-MARS I AGRl4 CAST Action

i nfo-ag ri 4cast®j rc.ec.eu ropa.eu

JRC 78460

EUR 247 36 EN

ISSN 183 1-9424

ISSN 1831-9793

© European Union 2013

'MARS stands fo r Monitoring Ag ricultural Resources

Legal Notice:

Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible fo r the use which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer:

The geographic borders are purely a graphical representat ion and are only intended to be ind icative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC posit ion.

Technical note:

The long term average {LTA) used within th is Bullet in as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 197 5-2012.

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