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26 July 2012 The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues • For the week ending 25 July 2012, little to no rainfall was recorded across most of

Australia.

• Ongoing cool conditions and widespread frosts have contributed to slow crop growth and low yields in southern Australia.

• Dry conditions in Australia’s sugar cane growing regions are assisting the sugar cane harvest which had been delayed due to excessive rainfall.

• Recent wet seasons are likely to contribute to the spread of weeds and pests.

• Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased this week by 20 gigalitres to remain at approximately 95 per cent of total capacity.

• The wholesale prices of fruit were generally higher or unchanged in the week ending 21 July 2012. There were mixed changes in the wholesale prices of vegetables.

• The average indicator prices of wheat, barley and canola have increased in both Australian and world markets.

• Cattle prices have fallen slightly in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.

• Australian milk production increased by 4.3 per cent in 2011–12 to 9.49 billion litres. Production increased in Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales and decreased in South Australia, Queensland and Western Australia.

1. Climate

1.1. Notable events • For the week ending 25 July 2012, little to no rainfall was recorded across most of Australia. The highest

measured rainfall total for the week was 109 millimetres at Queenstown in Tasmania.

• Ongoing cool conditions and widespread frosts have contributed to slow crop growth in southern Australia. In some areas, low yields are expected from late plantings and re-sown crops such as canola. Central Australia is experiencing an unusually cold winter with an above average number of below zero overnight temperatures.

• Dry conditions in Australia’s sugar cane growing regions are assisting the sugar cane harvest which had been delayed due to excessive rainfall.

• Recent wet seasons are likely to contribute to the spread of weeds and pests. According to the Western Australia Department of Agriculture and Food, favourable climatic conditions across northern Australia have contributed to the build-up of aphid populations, leading to issues in the region's horticultural areas, including crop losses and disease spread. A number of aphid control trials are underway, including the release of predatory wasps.

1.2. Rainfall this week For the week ending 25 July 2012, little to no rainfall was recorded across most of Australia. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 25 July 2012

1.3. Temperature anomalies this week Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 24 July 2012

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 24 July 2012

1.4. Rainfall outlook The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 26 July to 2 August 2012

2. Water

2.1. Water availability • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 20 gigalitres (GL) to

remain at approximately 95 per cent of total capacity. This is 10 percentage points or 2295 GL more than this time last year.

• Water allocations are unchanged from last week.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 26 July 2012 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities • The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$375 a

tonne in the week ending 23 July 2012, 6 per cent higher than the US$354 a tonne recorded in the previous week.

• The Australian indicator price for feed wheat (Sydney, GP) averaged $310 a tonne in the week ending 24 July 2012, 9 per cent higher than the previous week’s $285 a tonne.

• The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$349 a tonne for the week ending 25 July 2012, compared with US$339 a tonne in the previous week.

• The Australian indicator price for feed barley (Sydney) averaged $263 a tonne in the week ending 24 July 2012, compared with $250 a tonne in the previous week.

• The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$635 a tonne in the week ending 19 July 2012, 3 per cent higher than the previous week.

• The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $570 a tonne in the week ending 23 July 2012, compared with $554 a tonne in the previous week.

• The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400 kg live weight C3) fell 15 cents to 364 cents a kilogram in the week ending 20 July 2012. Young cattle prices in New South Wales and Victoria also fell by 8 cents and 15 cents, to 385 cents and 367 cents a kilogram, respectively.

• Saleyard lamb prices (18-22kg fat score 2-4) rose 8 per cent to average 472 cents a kilogram in the week ending 20 July 2012. The increase in price reflects a 3 per cent fall in the total number of lambs offered for sale compared with the previous week. The largest price increases occurred in South Australia (9 per cent) and Western Australia (9 per cent) followed by Victoria (8 per cent) and New South Wales (3 per cent).

• The wholesale prices of fruit were generally higher or unchanged in the week ending 21 July 2012. Wholesale prices were higher for banana (cavendish), watermelon, rockmelon and avocado (hass). Pineapple (smoothleaf) wholesale price decreased after a record high the previous week.

• There were mixed changes in the wholesale prices of vegetables in the week ending 21 July 2012. Prices increased for cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet) and beans (round) while wholesale prices for broccoli and iceberg lettuce were lower.

• Australian milk production increased 4.3 per cent in 2011-12 to 9.49 billion litres. Milk production in Victoria rose by 5.1 per cent with growth of 15 per cent in northern Victoria. Milk production in Tasmania and New South Wales increased by 9.1 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively, while production in South Australia and Queensland was marginally lower. Milk production in Western Australia fell by 6.7 per cent.

• The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 84.8 cents a pound in the week ending 25 July 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.

• According to the Chinese textile Industry, India has overtaken the United States in 2011–12 season to become the largest cotton exporter to China.

• The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US23.6 cents a pound in the week ending 25 July 2012, around 4 per cent higher than in the previous week.

• The Chinese Customs Data shows China imported 2.7 million tonnes of sugar in the first nine months of 2011–12 marketing year (October to September), a 190 per cent increase from the same period a year ago.

• According to Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, Ukraine's sugar exports are expected to reach 150 000 tonnes in the 2011–12 marketing year (September to August), compared with only 6200 tonnes in the previous marketing year.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service on 20 July 2012 approved the use of herbicide resistant sugar beets (non-regulated status to Roundup Ready sugar beets genetically engineered by Monsanto for glyphosate resistance).

3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices Weekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market

3.3. Selected world indicator prices

3.4. Crop indicator prices

3.5. Livestock indicator prices

4. Data attribution

Climate Bureau of Meteorology

• Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

• Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

• Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

• Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

• Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

• ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

• Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Water New South Wales

• New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

• New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

• Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

• Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4 Queensland

• Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

• seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia

• SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm

• South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/

Victoria

• Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au Water trading

• Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au

Commodities Fruit and vegetables

• Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

• The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

• Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Canola

• Weekly Times: hardcopy