cost reduction strategies in solar cell production dr
TRANSCRIPT
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DnB NOR Markets Solar SeminarOslo, 6 June 2006
Cost reduction strategies in solar cell productionDr. Claus Beneking, CEO ErSol Solar Energy AG
erwicon congress Erfurt 08 June 2006
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Disclaimer
Certain statements made in this presentation may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities law. Forward-looking information is subject to various known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These include statements concerning our expectations and other statements that are not historical facts.
The Company believes any such statements are based on reasonableassumptions and reflect the judgement of ErSol’s management based on factors currently known by it.
No assurance can be given that these forward-looking statements will prove accurate and correct, or that anticipated, projected future results will be achieved.
For additional information regarding risks, investors are referred to ErSol’s IPO prospectus and the annual report 2005.
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PV market development and characteristics
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Development of PV market 2004-2010 (optimistic growth scenario)
Total 10 GW by 2010
Total solar sector cell/module productionGigawatts
ROUGH ESTIMATE
0.1 0.20.3
0.7
1.1
1.5
2.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Non-siliconc-Si
10
7.5
53
2.41.71.2
Source: M. Rogol, 3rd Photon Silicon Conference, 3 April 2006 (Munich)
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Price experience curve of photovoltaic modules
Sources: Fraunhofer Institut Solare Energiesysteme (ISE), EPIA, ErSol
100
[€/Wp]
10
1
Cumulative installed PV Peak Power [GWP]
10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 10 102 103
1980
1990
20002004
2010
Barrier to partialcost competitiveness in
sunny regions
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1. “Grow or die”
2. Reduce production cost faster than price degression curve
Conclusions from PV market characteristics
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Positioning and strategy of ErSol Solar Energy AG
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Value chain of crystalline silicon photovoltaics
Sun and sand… → → → → … electricity
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New company structure
ErSol Solar Energy AGProduction and distribution of solar cells (Erfurt, Germany)
100% 100%100%100%
ASi Industries GmbH
Shanghai Electric
Solar Energy Co. Ltd.
aimex-solarGmbH
ErSol New Technologies
GmbH
SRS Silicon Recycling
Services, Inc.
35%
Camarillo/California,USA
Recyclingof silicon
Arnstadt,Germany
Solar moduleproduction
Mono-crystallineingots and wafers
(prod. & distribution)
Marketing of solar modules
Shanghai, P.R. China
Erfurt, Germany
Erfurt, Germany
Development of newphotovoltaic technologies
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Products of ErSol: Ingots and wafers
Mono-crystalline silicon ingots / wafers
Outstanding quality
Each wafer is tested in 5,000 measuring points to ensure highestlevel of quality
Strict documentation of testing process
Key characteristics
Ingots with a diameter of up to 230mm
45 MWp wafer production capacity in 2006
Large wafer size 156x156mm
Product
Production expertise
More than 30 years of pulling experience ensures high productivity
Optimised production process results in high silicon conversion rate
Ongoing reduction of cost structure
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Products of ErSol: PV cells
Black PowerBlue Power
Multi-crystalline solar cell
Ca. 50% of ErSol sales in 2006
High efficiencies of up to 16%
Mono-crystalline solar cell
Ca. 50% of ErSol sales in 2006
High efficiencies of up to 17%
60 MWp call production capacity in 2006
Extensive experience in cell manufacturing results in high productivity
Constant introduction of larger and thinner cell sizes
ErSol’s cells offer high degrees of efficiency, especially in dim and diffuse light
Low breakage rate and high cell stability
Outstanding quality
Key characteristics
Product
Production expertise
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ErSol enters into thin-film module production
ErSol plans to develop production capacity of 40 MWp p.a., medium-term annual capacity target of >100 MWp as a second growth option
Approx. 80 m€ investment (40 m€ in 2006 and 2007 each)
Less than 1% of silicon consumption compared with conventional wafer technology
Efficiency of approx. 6% on glass substrate
Project developed within ENT – ErSol New Technologies
Thin-film module production to be built in Erfurt, Thuringia
Approx. 100 new permanent jobs
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1. “Integrated company” covering the most important segments of the value chain (Silicon, Wafers, Solar cells)
2. “Two-product strategy”: High-end monocrystalline silicon and low-cost thin-film silicon products
=> Ensuring higher than proportional growth with faster than market cost degression
Characteristics of ErSol’s company strategy
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Elements of growth strategy
Increased integration of ASi
Increased silicon procurement
Advancements of technology
Entry into low-silicon-consumption technologies
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>20% 15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008
ASi wafers to ErSol ASi wafers to customers EBIT margin ErSol Group
Increased integration of ASi
Integration of the wafer business into the ErSol Group
Full margin addition effect from 2008 onwards
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More silicon secured through SRS acquisition in February 2006
Important addition to the upstream sector of the value chain
Additional quantities of approx. 75 tons of scarce solar silicon for production in 2006
Feedstock material of at least 15 MWp
Positive impact on margins due to higher utilisation of raw material
Price of approx. 19 million euros paid from equity
Silicon Recycling Services Inc. (SRS)
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Roadmap for mono-crystalline cell technology
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Year
Optimized Back Contact Cell: 22,0% 100 µm
Higher effic
iency
Reduced Wafer T
hickness
Current Production: 16,5% 280 µmCurrent Production: 16,5% 280 µm
Shallow Emitter Diffusion: 17,5% 220 µmShallow Emitter Diffusion: 17,5% 220 µm
Back Contact: 18,5% 180 µm
Back Contact: 20,0% 150 µmNew Front Side Structure
Back Contact Cell: 21,0% 120 µm
Instalment of ~8 million € technology program
Advancements of technology
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Development of mono-crystalline cell technology within 2005
We’re on track !
15,50
16,10
16,50
16,8316,70
16,6016,40
15,70
16,0015,80
220
260
14,50
15,00
15,50
16,00
16,50
17,00
Jan05
Feb05
Mar05
Apr05
May05
Jun05
Jul Aug05
Sep05
Oct05
Nov05
Dec05
Jan06
Ave
rage
cell
effic
ienc
yin
%
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
Cel
lthi
ckne
ssin
µm
Average cell efficiency in % Cell thickness in µm
05
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Expected breakthrough in cost reduction for high-end mono c-Si
Integrated production of ingots-wafers-solar cells
Technological advancements (silicon yield, wafer thickness, cell efficiencies …)
Economy of scale on the >100 MWp level
Accelerated achievement of cost reduction targets
New dimension of PV production cost
Grid equality in important key markets expected achievableon 2008 time scale
Higher margins at given price levels
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ErSol sets new growth targets for 2008
Wafer production capacity quadrupled to 100 MWp by end 2007
Crystalline cell production capacity tripled to 180 MWp by end 2007
Additional growth through new and increasing thin-film cell technology contribution
220 MWp total cell capacity by 2008
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Expected capital expenditure per business segment
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007
in m
illio
neu
ros
Thin-filmSolar cellsWafers
Expected total investment >190 million euros within 2006-2007 …… and several 100 new jobs in Thuringia !
40
40
25
16
30
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Customers and Target Markets 2006 – from Erfurt to the world !
Customers
Target Markets
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World PV Cell/Module Production from 2001-2010
ErSol Solar Energy AG
1,0
10,0
100,0
1000,0
10000,020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
PV M
arke
t, Pr
oduc
tion
[MW
p]
BAU Annual Worldwide M arket in M Wp (EPIA 22nd Dec. 05)
ACC. Annual Worldwide M arket in M Wp (EPIA 22nd Dec. 05)
Solar Generation II, Annual Installed Capacity (Greenpeace & EPIA Oct. 04)
Development of PV World M arket (Dr. A.Räuber)
D.A. Davidson & Co. Technology Conference (Applied Films 02/06)
Development of PV World M arket (CLSA 07/05)
PV Status Report 2005 (EU Commission, ILS)
Development of PV World M arket (Photon 03/2006)
Weltweite Solarzellenproduktion (Sarasin Studie Solarenergie 2005)
M ichael Rogol3rd Silicon Solar Conference, M unich 04/2006
Overview of ErSol’s expected positioning in the global PV market 2001-2010
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Cost reduction potential for different technologies
Source: Renewable Energy World May/June 2005
Thin-filmCrystalline siliconDye cell and single pin amorphous silicon
Module efficiency (%)
Mod
ule
pric
e/ W
p (r
elat
ive
units
)
0
1
2
32000+
2010+
2020+
0 5 10 15 20 25
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Summary on cost reduction strategies
Cost reduction in silicon wafer-based technology through- efficiency increase of monocrystalline silicon solar cell- higher wafer yield from silicon through decreasing wafer thickness- integrated production from wafer to solar cell- economy of scale at >100 MWp/a production volume level
Additional growth option and cost reduction potential through new thin-film cell technology
=> Competitiveness with both crystalline and thin film PV !!
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Thank you for your attention!
For further informationplease contact
Sonja TeurezbacherInvestor Relations Managerphone:+49-361-2195-130fax: +49-361-2195-133e-mail: [email protected]