cost estimate marion white (argonne) scu 3-lab review meeting december 16, 2014

Cost Estimate

Marion White (Argonne)

SCU 3-Lab Review MeetingDecember 16, 2014

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014

SCU Project Scope

Design, prototype, construct, and install 42 1.5-m-long superconducting undulators in the LCLS hard x-ray line. – Pre-production prototype cryomodule– Production of 14 Cryomodules– 4K helium system


Assumptions: Collaborative Cost Estimate ANL/LBNL/SLAC

Estimated costs (at this pre-conceptual design phase) are based on:– Existing procurements for SCU0, SCU1, and the SCU-LCLS R&D

prototypes, budgetary quotes, extrapolations of existing procurements, or engineering judgment of all partners based on similar experience.

– Argonne estimates were cross-checked with LBNL estimates for consistency, where available.

– No spares, with the exception of construction spares, are included in the estimate.• Construction spares are defined as subcomponents highly likely to be

damaged or destroyed during the normal production process.


Assumptions (cont’d)

SLAC superconducting linac estimates were used for quadrupoles, BPMs, and phase shifters. SLAC estimates were used for the 4K helium system. Cryostat mover system cost is not yet included, but can be similar to LCLS-I… maybe even re-using LCLS-I components.A quantity discount of 10% was applied to manufactured parts beyond the prototype; learning curves were applied to effort but not yet consistently.Burden and effort costs were calculated using Argonne rates.Project Management is shown as 10% of total.Successful completion of the pre-production prototype will reduce risk and allow for reduction of the contingency at CD-2. A contingency of 60% is assumed in this estimate.


Contingency Discussion

CD Level

CD-Level Definition Cost-Range Definition

CD-0 Approve Mission Need Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) estimate

CD-1 Approve Alternative Selection and Cost Range

Top end of estimate must not grow more than 50% by CD-2

CD-2 Approve Performance Baseline

Cost estimate defined with ~35% contingency


High-level Rollup

WBS Element WBS Description

Labor ($K)

Non-Labor ($K)

Total Estimated Cost ($K)

Sub-total High-Level Project Cost Roll-Up 17529 50667 681961.01 Project Management 1037 3926 49631.02 Pre-Production Prototype Cryomodule 2358 2680 50381.03 Engineering, Integration, & Final Design 187 1871.04 Installation 79 791.05 1st Article Cryomodule (1) 712 2691 34031.06 Production Cryomodules (13) 5892 31252 371441.07 Helium Plant for Cryomodule System 1219 2562 3781

OH (53.7% for Labor and 17.31% for Material) 6124 7476 13600

Contingency (60%) 10517 30400 40917Total (unescalated) 28046 81067 109113

LCLS-II Superconducting Undulator (SCU)

• Argonne rates and burdens are used in this table.



WBS Element WBS DescriptionLabor ($K)

Non-Labor ($K)


Total High-Level Project Cost Roll-Up 11404 43191 545951.01 Project Management 1037 3926 49631.02 Pre-Production Prototype Cryomodule 2358 2680 5038

1.02.01 Pre-Production Prototype Cryomodule 1989 2248 42371.02.02 Pre-Production Prototype Integration & Assembly 118 50 1681.02.03 Pre-Production Prototype Cryostat, Test & Meas 251 382 633

1.03 Engineering, Integration, & Final Production Design 187 1871.04 Installation 79 791.05 1st Article Cryomodule (1) 712 2691 3403

1.05.01 1st-Article Cryomodule 545 2549 30941.05.02 1st-Article Cryomodule Integration & Assembly 118 50 1681.05.03 1st-Article Cryostat & Component Testing 49 92 141

1.06 Production Cryomodules (13) 5892 31252 371441.06.01 Production Cryomodule 4058 30381 344381.06.02 Production Cryomodule Integration & Assembly 1373 130 15031.06.03 Production Cryostat & Component Testing 461 741 1202

1.07 Helium Plant for Cryomodule System 1219 2562 37811.07.01 Engineering & Design 88 881.07.02 Helium Refrigerator 1131 2082 32131.07.03 Distribution System - Helium Supply, Return Boxes, & Transfer 480 4801.07.04 SLAC Infrastructure 01.07.05 Installation, Interconnection, & Verification 0

No burden, escalation, or contingency


What is the pre-production prototype?Pre-production prototype cryomodule includes:– Three 1.5-m-long superconducting undulators– Three superconducting phase shifters– Two superconducting quadrupole magnets, one with correctors– 1 beam position monitor– 1 5.5-m-long cryostat – x-y mover system– Design, construction, test, manufacturing plan development, and development of

fabrication and test procedures.


Near-term funding requirement for the pre-production prototype to support a mid-2017 critical decision


WBS Element WBS DescriptionLabor ($K)

Non-Labor ($K)


Sub-total High-Level Project Cost Roll-Up 3986 3459 74451.01 Project Management 236 268 5041.02 Pre-Production Prototype Cryomodule 2358 2680 5038

1.02.01 Pre-Production Prototype Cryomodule 1989 2248 42371.02.02 Pre-Production Prototype Integration & Assembly 118 50 1681.02.03 Pre-Production Prototype Cryostat, Component 251 382 633

OH (53.7% for Labor and 17.31% for Material) 1393 510 1903

Contingency(60%) 2392 2075 4467Unescalated Total 6377 5534 11912

• Estimated costs are listed for the Argonne system; Argonne and LBNL base costs agree within 10% for the pre-production prototype at this stage of estimation.

• Conductor R&D is not included in the above. • Argonne rates and burdens are used in this table.


Summary

The pre-production prototype requires around $7.5M + contingency starting early FY15 in order for the results to be available in time to inform a baseline-change decision in mid-2017. The total estimated cost for the SCU project is $68M in FY15 dollars. The total project cost in FY15 dollars, without escalation, and with 60% contingency, is $109M.


Known weaknesses (backup)

Installation – based on LCLS-I costs – SCU-specific estimates were not available in timeControls – hardware and software needs are probably inconsistently estimatedPost-installation testing not includedCryomodule mover system not included Escalation is a factor but is not included

cost estimate marion white (argonne) scu 3-lab review meeting december 16, 2014

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