colliers residential marketshare q3 - 2011

A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND

OCTOBER 2011

MarketShareTHIRD QUARTER 2011

THIRD QUARTER 2011

WELCOME TO MARKETSHARE 1

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2

OVERALL – MARKET SUMMARY 3

MARKET SUMMARIES

Vancouver – Downtown 4

Vancouver – West 5

Vancouver – East 6

Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen 7

Burnaby/New Westminster 8

North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver 9

Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody 10

Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows 11

Surrey Central/North Delta 12

South Surrey/White Rock 13

Cloverdale/Langley 14

WHAT TO WATCH 15

TABLE OF

CONTENTS

1THIRD QUARTER 2011

As our team gathered to review and discuss our view of the markets this past quarter, we were again inspired to see such buoyant activity in Toronto and Vancouver while economies around the world are experiencing such volatility.

The global macroeconomic view continues to lean towards the negative

side. Depending on which economist you follow, the U.S. and Europe will

resolve their current issues soon and the world will ‘get back to business’

or, they won’t. How the U.S. and multiple countries in Europe can run their

finances into the ground with debt is simply mind-boggling (where’s their

proforma?). What is even more amazing is that when they try to address the

problems, political partisanship and self-interest seemingly get in the way of

constructive and corrective action.

While the global economy continues to experience many issues, the

Vancouver Lower Mainland real estate market continues to demonstrate

resilience and reinforces that ‘this is the place to be’ for real estate

developers. Low interest rates and an influx of new buyers into the market

will help to sustain this resilience. With current global economic challenges

expected to keep interest rates low into the foreseeable future, the

Vancouver Lower Mainland is a great place to be a real estate buyer as well.

Looking ahead, we do however see challenges in the local market

surrounding the need for affordable housing options. In talking to our

colleagues in land sales the limited supply of quality new development sites

is resulting in escalating land prices. The higher the price for land, the

greater the price the buyer will be required to pay. At the same time the

number of active and planned projects may push construction costs higher,

again resulting in higher sales prices for the buyer. This situation will

necessitate innovation. We are beginning to see this innovation on the

development side - more efficient floor plans and reduced parking being two

of them. If one lives close to transit or downtown and does not require a car

why does a developer have to build or provide the buyer a parking space?

And if one does have a car, there are under-utilized parking structures that

would be happy to offer long-term leases as an option to purchasing a

residence without parking. Our team is currently working on an innovative

project in Chinatown that offers exactly this.

Finally, as I mentioned in the last edition of MarketShare we have

committed to a long-term approach in building sales distribution channels

in China for both Vancouver and Toronto developers to satisfy what we

believe will be sustained demand. We are increasing the size of our teams

in this market, investing in technology, people development and

communication infrastructure and building multiple partnerships with

banks, immigration agencies as well as with other real estate agencies.

Our aim is to be the ‘go to’ organization for Canadian real estate in China.

This year our teams in Hong Kong, Singapore and China have already sold

over USD $400 million of UK and Australian product. Together we are

now expanding the market for Canadian product. We believe the best

approach to maximize success for Canadian developers in China is a

long-term sustained approach as opposed to a “launch and leave”. For

the right projects, we believe this is a long-term sales channel for

Canadian real estate but it is not a quick fix problem project solver.

In summary, while the global economy has caused angst over the past

month or so the Vancouver Lower Mainland real estate market continues

to perform steadily and assuming no major global economic meltdown we

expect it to continue.

I hope you enjoy this edition of MarketShare and as always we welcome

your thoughts and comments.

Greg Ashley

PRESIDENT AND MANAGING PARTNER, COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

WELCOME TO

MarketShare

2THIRD QUARTER 2011

Urban Analytics (UAI) is Metro-Vancouver’s leading source for analytical interpretation of relevant real estate market data, trends and strategic recommendations.

Urban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate

data on the multi-family residential real estate market in the Vancouver

Lower Mainland.

The methodology used to collect the data was as follows:

GENERAL PARAMETERSVancouver Lower Mainland refers to the area from West Vancouver to

Aldergrove. The focus of this study is limited to the multi-family market.

MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – NEW HOME SALESThe primary method used to collect information is a personal visit to each

project being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales

information, UAI representatives engage on-site sales staff to determine

additional relevant information such as incentive offerings, traffic trends and

active buyer profiles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is

defined as “The per square foot sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this

product type occurred”.

For the purposes of the MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various

municipal planning departments along with developers (and/or their

representatives) of proposed new developments to determine the

anticipated timing of their approval and marketing launch.

MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – RESALEThe resale market provides an important barometer from which to assess

demand and determine pricing for new home projects. Accordingly, UAI

closely monitors the resale market for multi-family homes in order to

identify trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, the

breadth and depth of product for sale can create findings that are less than

helpful to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends studying

only product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at less than $1.2

million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to newer product

(i.e. five years or newer) would be more relevant to the new home sector,

we believe this would limit the sample size and potentially skew the data

towards a specific type of product available in a small number of specific

buildings/projects. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is

defined as “The active sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this product

type occurred”.

This quarter we were also interested to find out how the rejection of the

HST and the ensuing uncertainty was impacting the new home market.

We found that the impact has been modest on lower priced product.

However, product priced between $525,000 and $1 million that completes

prior to February 2013 appears to be getting hit the hardest. That said,

most end-user buyers (and many realtors) seeking product priced under

the $525,000 threshold simply don’t understand how the tax applies. So

to avoid the confusion and encourage purchasing, many developers are

now including the HST in the price. The provincial government must

provide clarity on this issue swiftly.

Finally, with the continued “bubble” talk by economists based thousands

of miles from here, our analysts made a conscious effort to determine the

amount of standing inventory and assess whether these concerns are

warranted. We do not think they are as a) inventory levels do not present

a concern at this time, b) any speculative buying that is typical of a

growing bubble represents a microscopic fraction of the total buying

activity taking place today and c) investors are taking a much longer term

approach with their purchases, unlike 2006 to 2008 when most investors

had no intention – and in many cases no ability – to close on their

purchases.

We hope you find this aggregate data combined with Colliers’

analysis, observations and opinions thought provoking.

Michael Ferreira

PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC.

RESEARCH

Methodology

www.urbananalytics.ca

urbanANALYT ICS INC

3THIRD QUARTER 2011

As expected, Third Quarter sales were slower than the previous two quarters.

However, even accounting for the usual seasonal dip in sales during this

quarter, a total of 2,315 units were sold which is up 40 percent from the same

quarter in 2010. Year to date, 9,681 units have been sold, or 108 percent of

2010’s total sales volume. Our prediction of 12,000+ units sold in 2011

appears to be attainable.

Sales at new and high profile projects in False Creek, UBC, South Vancouver,

Richmond, Coquitlam, and South Surrey contributed greatly as did continued

demand for townhome product in all markets. Reasonably strong traffic and

sales activity during the first part of the quarter was reported. However,

traffic and sales slowed towards the end of August and through September.

Overall unsold inventory levels in the Lower Mainland were reduced by

approximately 10 percent in the Third Quarter relative to Second Quarter of

this year. Like many buyers, Mainland Chinese investors and end users were

somewhat less active overall except for in key markets such as UBC.

Surprisingly, the first time or entry level buyer remained active taking

advantage of developer incentives and low interest rates.

NEW HOME MARKET:In the Third Quarter 36 percent of sales occurred at high rise projects, which is

a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous quarter. Low rise sales

represented 38 percent of sales, which is up 12 percent from the previous

quarter while townhome sales increased by 6 percent to 26 percent. Of the

7,067 units of inventory available to purchase 2,130 are complete with three

projects accounting for approximately 31 percent of the completed and unsold

inventory. Active projects decreased by approximately 2 percent. Overall Third

Quarter performance across all product types is summarized in the following

table.

Like any typical summer there were a limited number of higher profile new

project launches. These included: Concord Pacific/Millennium’s quiet and

successful release of Alexandra in the West End; China based Modern

Green’s UBC offering YU; Bastion’s re-launch of Opsal Steel, Forrester

Homes’ Granville Mews; Townline’s Magnolia at the Gardens; and,

Springbank’s Bloom.

Finally, given the slower season and increased competition in markets

where the predominant buyer is an end user, such as Langley/Cloverdale

and Central Surrey/North Delta, a number of projects offered price-

reducing incentives while other of more centrally located projects worked

to generate sales through increased realtor commissions.

RESALE MARKET:This past quarter, 1,792 multi-family homes were sold on MLS. Sales were

up 48 percent over this same period last year. The increase was across all

product types with high rise representing the lowest increase at 22 percent,

low rise sales increasing by 70 percent and townhome sales increasing by

76 percent. However, when compared to the torrid pace of the Second

Quarter, sales were off 30 percent as a whole. Overall Third Quarter sales

were distributed across all product types as indicated in the following table.

THE QUARTER AHEAD:The Fourth Quarter of 2010 proved to be the most active sales period for

that year. This year, we think that it is unlikely we will see the same number

of sales due to the limited number of projects likely to launch in the Fourth

Quarter. We do however, still expect a positive quarter and continue to

project annual sales of 12,000+ units.

W. Scott Brown

SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

Note To Reader - At the end of this report we have included a commentary on ‘What to Watch’ and invite you to read our thoughts on the future of the Lower Mainland market. In coming editions, we will provide additional insight to the market through our ‘What to Watch’ commentary, critiquing our earlier assumptions and sharing your views.

OVERALL – SUMMARY

VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND

HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS

Total Third Quarter Sales 825 893 597 2,315

Total Inventory 3,484 2,404 1,179 7,067

Total Number Of Projects 80 99 94 273

HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS

Total Third Quarter Sales 722 478 592 1,792

Total Active Listings 1,961 1,403 1,458 4,822

4THIRD QUARTER 2011

The ‘green light’ rating for Vancouver - Downtown is largely the result of the limited supply of product, the wildly successful response to the Alexandra project in the West End, and the continued steady absorptions at most existing pre-construction projects. A healthy supply of higher-end new and resale condominiums in this market has resulted in more moderate absorptions in this sector.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER – DOWNTOWN

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* The positive response to the Concord/

Millennium offering Alexandra in the West End (75 of 85 units sold with little to no advertising at average sale values upwards of $950 per square foot) illustrates the level of demand for well-located and optimally positioned product.

* City-imposed moratorium on new development approvals in the West End will further exacerbate the demand/supply imbalance for the foreseeable future in the Vancouver – Downtown market.

* There are now five completed projects with a combined total of 76 units of standing inventory.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Overall months of supply is 6.7. This is up

from 4.6 in the Second Quarter of 2011.

* Overall sales were up 11 percent compared to this same quarter in 2010.

* Average sale price of $707 per square foot - this is 5 percent higher than during the Third Quarter of 2010.

NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS

PRODUCT Q3 ACTIVEPROJECTS

Q3SALES

Q3SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALESRANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 13 155 483 $690 - 710

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME

Maps for illustrative purposesonly. Locations are approximate.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011

MLS RESALE - Q3 2011MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)

ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY

PRODUCT LISTINGS MONTHS OF SUPPLY # % OF TOTAL

SOLD* $ PSF AVG. DAYS ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE (75% of sales)

High Rise 527 6.7 235 100 $707 38 $364,000 - 828,000

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change* % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category

MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPEAVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF

PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM

High Rise $439,283 $692 $707,254 $721

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a


Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a

Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES

Cardero

St

Thurlow St

Burrard St

Bute St

Bute St

Jervis S

tBrou

ghton St

Nicola S

t

Nicola S

t

Howe S

tHornby

St

Granvill

e St

Seymour S

t

Richard

s St

Homer

St

Hamilto

n St

Cambie

St

Beatty S

t

Bidwell

S

Denman St

Harwood St

W Georgia St

Melville St

Dunsmuir StW Hastings St

W Pender St

BURRARD ST

BRIDGE

GRANVILLE ST

BRIDGE

Cordova StWater

Expo Blvd

Pacific Blvd

K

Comox St

Pacific St

Beach Ave

Nelson StPendrall St

Davie St

GMPLA

CANADAPLACE

BC PLACESTADIUM

Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4

5THIRD QUARTER 2011


MLS RESALE - Q3 2011


The ‘green light’ rating applied to the Vancouver - West market remains. While sales at most of the actively marketed projects remain steady, the amount of product contemplated for the South East False Creek neighbourhood over the next two to three years will make this a highly competitive market for the foreseeable future. Vancouver - Downtown product remains in higher demand than product in South East False Creek. That said, sales success at Kits 360 and 6th + Fir illustrated the strong demand for product in the Kitsilano and Burrard Slopes areas.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER – WEST

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* The positive response to the latest

condominium offering at UBC’s Wesbrook community, Modern Green’s YU, illustrates the continued appeal of this neighbourhood to the new immigrant Chinese buyers.

* There are indications the Mainland Chinese Buyer has discovered The Village on False Creek. Several units were sold to this buyer group during the Third Quarter.

* Local developer interest in assembled properties along the Cambie Corridor has apparently cooled in light of some seemingly irrational land sale values attained earlier this year.

* Marine Gateway at the foot of Cambie Street is anticipated to launch in the First Quarter of 2012 rather than in the Fourth Quarter of this year.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Active listings for low and high rise product

increased by 43 percent compared to the Third Quarter of 2010.

* At the same time, overall sales have increased by 81 percent compared to the Third Quarter of 2010.

* The townhome sector showed the strongest sales increase compared to this same quarter last year. This helps explain the low ‘average days on market’ for townhome product.



Q3SALES

Q3SUPPLY


High Rise 18 226 948 $680 - 750

Low Rise 3 6 14 $600 - 680

Townhome 3 3 50 $670 - 700

MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)





High Rise 172 8.5 61 43 $723 41 $309,900 - 940,000

Low Rise 125 7.1 53 38 $706 51 $427,000 - 796,600

Townhome 52 5.8 27 19 $663 26 $575,000 - 1.1M




High Rise $391,383 $643 $785,205 $758

Low Rise $432,950 $659 $649,891 $717


Townhome $805,321 $665 $952,303 $671

C.P.R

.

University of British Columbia

70th Ave W Kent Ave NSE Marine

41st Ave

57th Ave W57th A

Fras

er S

t

Mai

n St

33rd Ave

12

Gre at Northe

King Edward Ave

33rd Ave W

Cam

bie

St

Oak

St

GRA

NVI

LLE

STRE

ET

Arb

utus

St

W B

oule

vard

41st Ave W

49th Ave W

Blen

heim

St

12th Ave W

Dun

bar S

t

Crow

n StSW

Marine Dr

16th Ave W

10th Ave W

Wesbrook M

all

4th Ave W

BROADWAY W

Cornwall StPoint Grey Rd

Mac

dona

ld S

t

O

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4

6THIRD QUARTER 2011

Limited supply of new multi-family home product is the primary reason for the continued ‘green light’ rating for this market. The Main and Fraser Street corridors continue to attract new home buyers seeking more affordable pricing in quickly gentrifying areas. Developers contemplating new projects in Vancouver - East should be conscious of the fact buyers are typically seeking greater value here relative to more established Vancouver - West neighbourhoods.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER – EAST

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Polygon continues to receive a very positive

response to its New Water development at the River District.

* The execution and marketing of many of the low rise projects located along Kingsway has been poor.

* Panther Constructors Ltd. is set to launch its first residential project, The Flats at 219 Georgia East, early in the Fourth Quarter. This innovative project is the first of its kind for Chinatown.

* Two Vancouver - East areas that will see increased development activity in the coming quarters are Chinatown and a large land assembly adjacent to the Collingwood Village community near Kingsway and Boundary.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Average sale values for high rise product

increased 8 percent over the Third Quarter of 2010.

* Active listings increased by 9 percent compared to the previous quarter.

* Overall sales were up 45 percent compared to the Third Quarter of 2010 - much of which can be attributed to higher sales activity in the low rise condominium sector.



Q3SALES

Q3SUPPLY


High Rise 2 27 120 $580 - 630

Low Rise 16 130 185 $480 - 530

Townhome 4 6 39 $450 - 500







High Rise 107 7.8 41 39 $554 34 $328,888 - 557,500

Low Rise 117 8.8 40 38 $479 72 $288,000 - 448,000

Townhome 59 7.1 25 24 $484 35 $522,000 - 765,000




High Rise $396,863 $569 $523,974 $551

Low Rise $329,487 $476 $398,114 $483


Townhome $588,110 $492 $692,109 $484


Burke St

Kincaid St

Way

burn

e D

r

Collingwood

Eton St

Parker St

Deer Lake PkMoscrop St

Grange St

Canada Wy

Spro

Rupe

rt S

t

Will

ingd

on A

ve

Hol

dom

St

Gilm

ore

Ave

McGill St

Dundas St

HASTINGS STREET E

Renf

rew

St

1st Ave

Venables St

BROADWAY E

Nan

aim

o St

41st Ave E

Clar

k D

r

33rd Ave E

KINGSWAY

12th Ave E

Gre at Northern WyDenman St

Davie St

Pacific St

King Edward Ave

33rd Ave W

TREE

T 41st Ave W

12th Ave W

Grandview Hwy

morial Bridge

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4

7THIRD QUARTER 2011

Richmond retains its ‘green light’ rating as a result of the continued strong absorptions of high and low rise condominium product. The lack of new product releases in the Third Quarter also resulted in very little movement in achievable sale values. Developers contemplating new product here should be aware of the considerable amount of condominium product proceeding through the planning process, and design and position their projects appropriately.

MARKET SUMMARY

RICHMOND/SOUTH DELTA/TSAWWASSEN

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* The most notable project launch of Third

Quarter was Townline’s The Gardens low rise project on the former Fantasy Gardens property. The positive response to the project’s first phase will likely result in the launch of Phase II during the Fourth Quarter.

* Slower absorptions in the high rise product category can be attributed to the lack of product launches in the market area. Most pre sale offerings for this product type are nearing the end of their respective sales campaigns.

* Note that the Quintet sales office has now closed to allow for the start of construction. Nearly 650 of the approximately 700 units in this five-tower development are sold.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Overall active listings are up 21 percent

compared to the Third Quarter of 2010.

* Months of supply for high rise product is 11. This is up from 9 in the Third Quarter of last year.

* Demand for townhome product remains strong.



Q3SALES

Q3SUPPLY


High Rise 9 147 456 $540 - 590

Low Rise 7 119 204 $430 - 470

Townhome 14 31 126 $375 - 425

C.N

.R.

Steveston

George Ma

River Rd

H

t

Westminster Hwy

No.

6 R

d

No.

7 R

d

No

8Rd

FRA

SER

- D

ELTA

T

HRU

WAY

Vulc

an

RICHMOND ANNACIS HIGHW

No.

5 R

d

Alderbridge Wy

Granville Ave

River Rd

Blundell Rd

Francis Rd

Williams Rd

Steveston Hwy

Gar

den

City

Rd

No.

4 R

d

Shel

l Rd

Railw

ay A

ve

Gilb

ert R

d

No.

3 R

d

No.

2 R

d

No.

1 R

d

Moncton St

Russ Baker W

y

TI







High Rise 308 11 84 38 $521 66 $333,000 - 613,500

Low Rise 144 9.2 47 21 $445 51 $339,900 - 529,900

Townhome 225 7.6 89 40 $410 49 $480,000 - 731,000




High Rise $352,639 $520 $484,204 $520

Low Rise $337,686 $500 $427,951 $442


Townhome $484,414 $395 $598,749 $410


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4

8THIRD QUARTER 2011

A ‘green light’ rating has been applied to the Burnaby/New Westminster area due to the continued strong absorptions in the Metrotown area of Burnaby, which has also led to increased buyer activity in areas other Burnaby neighbourhoods such as North Burnaby, Brentwood and Edmonds. The new home market in New Westminster remains very price sensitive; only those projects that are appropriately positioned relative to comparable product in Burnaby and other competing market areas achieved moderately strong absorptions

MARKET SUMMARY

BURNABY/NEW WESTMINSTER

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* With Intracorp’s Metroplace development now

substantially sold out, the market is awaiting the launch the next series of towers in Metrotown by the likes of Concord, Intracorp and Anthem/Beedie.

* While absorptions of concrete condominium product remains steady in the Brentwood area, achievable sale values still lag behind those of comparable product in Metrotown by approximately $30 - $40 per square foot.

* The most notable project launches anticipated for the Fourth Quarter include Liberty’s Highland House at UniverCity (SFU), TriDecca’s 258 tower in New Westminster, and the final release of The Grove low rise buildings at Onni’s Victoria Park.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Active listings for high rise product have were

9 percent lower than in the Third Quarter of 2010.

* Compared to the Third Quarter of 2010, high rise condo sales increased by 67 percent.

* Sale prices for low rise product increased by 6 percent over the Third Quarter of 2010.



Q3SALES

Q3SUPPLY


High Rise 15 148 358 $465 -600

Low Rise 13 80 222 $385 - 475

Townhome 6 23 99 $350 -450

FRASER RIVER

Burke St

Kincaid St

Way

burn

e D

r

1

COBURNABY

NEWWESTMINSTER

Clarke

Rd

St. Johns

Como Lake Ave

Gate

nsbu

ry R

d

116th A

United B

Parker St Curtis St

Gaglardi Wy

Gera

ld A

ve

Sper

ling

St

Nort

h Rd

Canada Wy6th St

10th Ave

8th Ave

6th Ave

Queens

Ave

KINGSWAY

Deer Lake PkwyMoscrop St

Gille

y Av

e

Roya

l Oak

AveImperial St

Rumble St

Oakland St

Edmond

s St

Walker Ave

Nels

on A

ve Marine Dr

Marine Wy

Tyne

St

Boun

dary

Rd

Grange St

Canada Wy

Sprott StWinston StRu

pert

St

Will

ingd

on A

ve

Hol

dom

St

Gilm

ore

Ave

HASTINGS STREET E

Renf

rew

St

1st Ave

Venables St

BROADWAY E

Nana

imo

St

49th Ave E

Kerr

St

Ellio

t S

t

Kent Ave S

Grandview Hwy

Blue

Mou

ntai

n St

TRANS CANADA HIGHWAY

LOUGHEED HIGHWAY

Simon FraserUniversity

Patullo BridgeStew

ardson Wy

Colu

mbi

a St







High Rise 408 5.7 216 56 $479 47 $317,500 - 555,000

Low Rise 148 5 89 23 $423 63 $240,339 - 470,000

Townhome 152 5.8 78 20 $394 42 $364,900 - 619,900




High Rise $320,589 $482 $455,338 $475

Low Rise $281,040 $423 $383,004 $422


Townhome $416,679 $421 $538,803 $382


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4

9THIRD QUARTER 2011

The lower sales activity on the North Shore during the Third Quarter was largely the result of a drop in the number of actively marketing projects. The combination of lower sales activity and a significant increase in the amount of new product anticipated to relaunch or commence marketing in the Fourth Quarter has resulted in the North Shore retaining its ‘yellow light’ status.

MARKET SUMMARY

NORTH SHORE: North Vancouver & West Vancouver

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Both Polygon’s Anderson Walk and Anthem’s

Local on Lonsdale sales centres were closed for much of the Third Quarter, while Qualex-Landmark’s District Crossing was substantially sold out.

* The most notable project launches scheduled for the Fourth Quarter are Wegroup’s The Prescott at 13th Street and Lonsdale, and 15 West by Grosvenor/Citimark on 15th Street near Lonsdale.

* Onni is also slated to re-launch the Evelyn development in West Vancouver.

* Absorptions for low rise product are anticipated to increase after Polygon launches its second phase of Anderson Walk in the Fourth Quarter.

* There is a limited supply of townhome product on the market.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Higher months of supply of all product types

are making market conditions more favourable for buyers.

* Active listings of low rise product is 65 percent higher than the Third Quarter of 2010.

* Overall sales activity in the Third Quarter was lower than the previous quarter.



Q3SALES

Q3 SUPPLY


High Rise 8 15 309 $575 - 625

Low Rise 10 39 257 $500 - 540

Townhome 3 6 31 n/a

Burrard Inlet

1

LynnValley

DeepCove

Mt S

eym

our R

d

Dee

p Co

ve R

d

Mt Seymour Pkwy

Berk

ley

Rd

ne Dr

HWAY

15th St

r

Capi

lano

Rd

Edgemont Blvd

Welch St

Larson Rd

Del

broo

k

29th St E

Gra

nd B

lvd

E

Broo

ksba

nk A

ve

Mountain H

wyEsplanade E Main St Riverside D

r W

Riversi

de Dr E

Esplanade W

Lons

dale

Ave

Ches

terfi

eld

Ave

St G

eorg

es A

ve

13th St W

Braemar Rd

Mou

ntai

n H

wy

Lynn Valley Rd

Lillo

oet

3rd St W

3rd St E

Hyannis Dr

Harbourside Dr

Harbourside Pl

F

ell

Ave

Keith Rd E

Dollarton HwyOld Dollarton Rd

Iron Workers M

emorial Br

Ave

Rd







High Rise 106 11.8 27 38 $619 51 $336,500 -702,000

Low Rise 112 12.4 27 38 $504 53 $318,000 - 584,000

Townhome 56 9.3 18 25 $414 60 $430,000 - 998,000




High Rise $360,661 $598 $578,889 $626

Low Rise $345,864 $493 $526,980 $510


Townhome $651,750 $441 $815,000 $386


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4

10THIRD QUARTER 2011

The Tri-Cities has been downgraded to a ‘yellow light’ rating due to the rising months of supply in the high rise sector. However, there is a strong likelihood of this area regaining a ‘green light’ rating due to the recent approval of Metro Vancouver Mayors to raise the capital required to fund the construction and operation of the Evergreen rapid transit line through a new gas tax and higher property taxes.

MARKET SUMMARY

TRI-CITIES: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Lower absorptions of high rise product are

due in part to the uncertainty over whether funding for the Evergreen Line would be approved.

* While Cressey’s M2 high rise development continued to achieve strong absorptions, sales activity at most other actively selling high rise projects remained muted.

* Low rise condominium projects by Mosaic in Burquitlam and a high rise project by Polygon at its Windsor Gate community achieved strong Third Quarter absorptions.

* Demand for well-designed and appropriately positioned townhome product in the Burke Mountain remains steady.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* There continues to be a generous supply of

high rise condominium product; 16.5 months.

* Low rise sales are were 54 percent higher than in this same quarter last year.

* Townhome sales nearly tripled over the Third Quarter 2010.

* Average days on the market for townhome product is very low at an average of 36 days.



Q3SALES

Q3 SUPPLY


High Rise 9 46 440 $85 - 440

Low Rise 11 60 214 $320 - 390

Townhome 7 59 145 $285 - 335

C.P.R.

7

Maillardville

Burquitlam

WestwoodPlateau

Victoria Dr

Prairie Ave

Ceda

r DrCo

ast M

erid

ian

Rd

Kingsway Ave

Broa

dway

St

Shau

ghne

ssy S

t

Panorama Dr

John

son

St

Landsdowne D

r

Pine

tree

Wy

iver

Rd

LOUG

Ioco Rd

April

Rd

Heritage Mountain Blv d

Clarke

Rd

St. Johns St

Como Lake Ave

Mar

iner

Wy

Lint

on S

t

Gat

ensb

ury

RdAustin Ave

Blue

Mou

ntai

n St

Ave ssy

St







High Rise 220 16.5 40 21 $403 48 $275,000 - 468,500

Low Rise 170 6.4 80 41 $343 54 $252,800 - 370,000

Townhome 169 6.9 74 38 $304 36 $379,850 - 579,900




High Rise $271,617 $419 $420,441 $401

Low Rise $250,488 $367 $321,107 $340


Townhome $402,644 $328 $464,013 $298


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4


The limited sales activity in Ridge Meadows is largely due to the limited number of projects actively marketing and can account for the ‘yellow light’ status. While there is likely some justification for the introduction of new low rise condominium and townhome product in this market, developers of this product should be aware of the price sensitivity among multi-family product buyers here. Only well-designed and appropriately positioned projects in appealing locations are likely to achieve desired absorption levels.

MARKET SUMMARY

RIDGE MEADOWS: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Sales activity Portrait Homes’ Brighton

townhome project remains steady as purchasers are responding well to entry level townhomes priced below $300,000.

* The most anticipated Fourth Quarter launch is Quadra’s Cedar Downs low rise condominium project in Pitt Meadows.

* There is no apparent demand for high rise product in Ridge Meadows.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* High rise condominium resale listings at

Solaris are now appearing on MLS.

* There is a generous supply of low rise condominium and townhome listings: 14.8 and 12 months respectively.

* Less than 50 sales of newer resale multi-family product sold on MLS in this quarter.



Q3SALES

Q3 SUPPLY


High Rise 1 0 84 $275 - 325

Low Rise 3 21 17 $250 - 300

Townhome 5 32 54 $200 - 250

C.N.R.

7

PITT MEADOWSAIRPORT

Hammond Rd

Fraser Wy

128th Ave

hS

Nea

ves

Rd

Laity

St

216t

h St

River Rd

203r

d St

207t

h St

Ears

Brid

ge

104th Ave

108th Ave

Perimeter Rd

Woo

lridg

e Rd

ingsway Ave

Broa

dway

St

LOUGHEED HIGHWAY

Dewdney Trunk Rd

Har

ris R

d

LASD

BARNSTONISLAND







High Rise 6 4.5 4 9 $291 118 $259,900 - 309,900

Low Rise 94 14.8 19 41 $248 64 $200,000 - 284,305

Townhome 92 12 23 50 $212 64 $306,542 - 448,800




High Rise n/a n/a $282,400 $291

Low Rise $193,333 $256 $247,595 $247


Townhome $340,000 $238 $378,645 $219


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4


The fact that the amount of new contemplated low and high rise inventory could potentially outpace current absorption levels is the primary reason for the ‘yellow light’ rating applied to this market – particularly in the Surrey Central neighbourhood. Developers considering the launch of low or high rise product in this neighbourhood should be aware of the price-sensitivity of buyers. High rise product should be priced at $400 or less per square foot in order to achieve any significant absorption.

MARKET SUMMARY

SURREY CENTRAL/NORTH DELTA

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Most of the activity for high rise

condominiums is occurring at Concord Pacific’s Park Place where substantial price-reducing incentives are being offered to both purchasers and realtors.

* Townhome activity in the South Newton and North Delta neighbourhoods of this market remains steady. However, recent new townhome launches in South Newton have made this a much more competitive market area, which has led to lower buyer urgency levels.

* Buyer response to Polygon’s Sunstone community in North Delta remains positive as evidenced by the absorptions being achieved by Eclipse – its most recent townhome offering.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Average resale price of $348 per square foot

for high rise condominium product in Central Surrey helps explain reluctance of developers to introduce new product here.

* Townhome sales more than doubled in comparison to the Third Quarter of 2010.

* The ‘average days on market’ for all product types are lower than in the Third Quarter of 2010.



Q3SALES

Q3SUPPLY


High Rise 3 54 292 $350 - 400

Low Rise 13 97 404 $275 - 325

Townhome 21 154 262 $210 - 260

C.N.R.

B.N.R.

SOUTHERN RAILWAY

91

91A

99A

Sullivan

SurreyCentre

Newton

SouthWestminster

Guildford

Clover64th Ave

168t

h St

176t

h St

hS

80th Ave PACI

FIC

HIG

HW

AY

88th Ave

Ha

160t

h St

92nd Ave

96th Ave

104th Ave

156t

h St

108th Ave

eter Rd

58th Ave 48th

St

148t

h St

64th Ave 68th Ave

72nd Ave

76th Ave76th Ave

Scot

t Rd

120t

h St

KIN

G

GEO

RGE

HIG

HW

AY

80th Ave

Kitson Pkwy

72nd Ave 140t

h St

144t

h St

152n

d St

84th Ave

128t

h St

112t

h St

84th Ave

Nordel W

y

th S

t

ANN

ACISH

IGH

WAY

88th Ave

92nd Ave

96th Ave

132n

d St

100th AveFRASER HIGHWAY

Scott

Rd

100th Ave

104th Ave

108th AveGro

Derwent Wy

Alex Fraser Bridge

Queensborough Bridgen Ave

Newton Rd

ANNACISISLAND







High Rise 72 27 8 5 $348 49 $201,000 - 282,000

Low Rise 180 11 49 29 $282 68 $193,204 - 284,900

Townhome 240 6.4 113 66 $222 50 $309,978 - 435,000




High Rise $213,900 $340 $276,667 $359

Low Rise $193,614 $301 $260,154 $279


Townhome $294,071 $248 $359,224 $224


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4


Higher absorptions of low rise product and continued strong demand for entry level and move-up townhomes helped the South Surrey/White Rock market retain its ‘green light’ rating. The stronger absorption of low rise product is helping to reduce the amount of standing inventory of this product type. New immigrant and established Chinese buyers from Richmond continue to participate in the townhome market.

MARKET SUMMARY

SOUTH SURREY/WHITE ROCK

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Edgewater continues to dominate sales in the

low rise condominium sector. Response to the release of the final two phases of this project has been positive in spite of the approximately $400 per square foot sale values being sought.

* Low rise condominium developers hoping to attain similar sale values should expect very slow absorptions unless the product offers a unique selling feature such as views or green belt adjacency.

* The most significant anticipated project launch in the foreseeable future is Polygon’s Seaside Village low rise condominium project.

* There continues to be limited demand for high rise product in South Surrey/White Rock.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* The majority of the active high rise listings

are units at Bosa’s Miramar Village project.

* The overwhelming majority of low rise condominium listings are located in White Rock where there is more limited demand than in South Surrey.

* Townhome sales are down 44 percent compared to the Second Quarter and can be attributed to new product on that market that is favourably priced.

Mud Bay

B.N.R.

99

Sunnyside

Semiahmoo

176t

h St

172n

d St

Campbell Riv

16th Ave

168t

h St

8th Ave

Buena Vista Ave

152n

d St

24th Ave

20th Ave

28th Ave

32nd Ave

20th Ave

40th Ave

160t

h St

Marine Dr

North Bluff Rd12

8th

St

20th Ave124t

h St

Bayvie

w St

24th Ave

28th Ave

140t

h St

Cres cent R

d 32nd Ave

40th Ave







High Rise 35 17.5 6 9 $497 99 $469,000 - 675,000

Low Rise 106 17.7 18 26 $354 63 $225,000 - 437,000

Townhome 116 7.9 44 65 $275 52 $332,604 - 689,300




High Rise n/a n/a $630,400 $500

Low Rise $232,600 $312 $381,646 $373


Townhome $382,867 $287 $470,151 $287


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME




Q3SALES

Q3 SUPPLY


High Rise 2 7 60 $550 - 600

Low Rise 8 98 338 $325 - 375

Townhome 13 116 125 $250 - 300

Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4


A ‘yellow light’ rating continues to be applied to Cloverdale/Langley as a result of the highly competitive nature of this market area. The seemingly ever-increasing number of low rise and townhome projects has given prospective purchasers much to consider, which has lengthened the buying cycle. The level of competition combined with the HST still being applied to new home product has led to many developers offering lucrative price-reducing incentives valued at up to $12,000 to generate sales.

MARKET SUMMARY

CLOVERDALE/LANGLEY

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Quadra/HJ’s Yorkson Creek development

continues to dominate absorptions in this market area. New home buyers continue to respond to the value-oriented offering of both the low rise condominiums and townhomes at this development.

* It is interesting to note that absorptions have been higher in the Yorkson area of Langley than in the East Clayton neighbourhood of Cloverdale.

* In spite of the considerable amount of unsold inventory in the townhome sector, there are just 87 units of standing townhome inventory.

* Also noteworthy is the emergence of the Korean buyer in the Yorkson area.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Overall newer resale multi-family listings

increased by 28 percent compared to the Third Quarter of 2010.

* Overall newer resale multi-family sales increased by 56 percent compared to the Third Quarter of 2010.

* Townhome sales represent two thirds of the newer multi-family re-sale transactions in this marketplace.



Q3SALES

Q3 SUPPLY


High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise 15 243 549 $280 - 330

Townhome 18 167 248 $225 - 275

1

17

10

Glov

er R

d

r

88th Ave

Telegraph Tr

216t

h St

To

pham

R

200t

h St

72nd Ave72nd Ave

208t

h St

216t

h St

Glover

Rd

Logan Ave

HWY 10

BYPASS

St56th Ave

60th Ave

176t

h St

184t

h St

192n

d St

PACI

FIC

HIG

HW

AY

Harvie

Rd

92nd Ave

64th Ave

192







High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise 207 11.1 56 36 $298 74 $198,350 - 353,000

Townhome 297 8.8 101 64 $216 50 $293,000 - 414,000

Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change



High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise $207,506 $29,34 $289,932 $300


Townhome $302,828 $240 $354,470 $213


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q3

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

4


While we don’t see a “bubble” or Vancouver real estate crash on the horizon it is likely that some new project launches and approvals will be delayed due to the forthcoming municipal elections and concerns over consumer confidence. That said, we remain grateful to be working in the Vancouver market given the volatility of other markets worldwide.

LAST QUARTERLast quarter we said that Third Quarter sales would be in line with Third

Quarter performance in 2010. We certainly can’t be accused of being too

bullish as sales were up 40 percent over the same quarter last year. Did

anyone see that coming? That said, they were less than half what they were

in the Second Quarter of this year.

We commented that developer efforts to differentiate product from the

architectural and design perspectives would be handsomely rewarded by

investors, end users and eventually renters. One need look no further than

Onni’s sale success at Central as proof of that statement. Of course, we think

Vancouver has unrealized architectural potential and we look forward to

future efforts to tap into it. On the other hand, we didn’t expect a number of

controversial projects to gain the necessary approvals as quickly as they did.

We anticipated continued Asian immigration to drive sales and it has

particularly in the main stay areas UBC and Vancouver - West, Richmond

and Metrotown. And, according to our data this interest is spreading to The

Village on False Creek and to less central areas provided that they are on

transit and near good schools.

Finally, we expected developers in Vancouver to look to Victoria and Calgary

as land prices escalate and development opportunities become rarer in

Vancouver. Bosa Properties enjoyed summer sales at its Promontory project

in Victoria. Embassy Developments continues to prepare for the launch of a

signature project Evolution at East Village, an emerging downtown Calgary

neighbourhood. On the other hand, Concert Properties had planned to

launch its downtown Victoria project Era but elected to delay its public

release until the cloud of uncertainty surrounding the rejection of the HST

passes.

LOOKING AHEAD Our quarterly cycle of developer polling suggests that the sentiment

moving into the final quarter of 2011 is mixed. The word that best

describes this sentiment is “angst”. Developers admit this year’s volume

is remarkable but are troubled by the global economic issues and the

uncertainty with respect to the HST. Either way, developers expect a

healthy market next year but not necessarily one as strong as the market

this year.

Looking ahead to the Fourth Quarter of 2011 and the First Quarter of

2012 and beyond we expect:

* The Total Annual Sales Volume for 2011 to exceed 12,000 units.

* Fourth Quarter performance will be less than Second Quarter of 2011.

* A number of developers will forge ahead with planned Fourth Quarter launches while others may defer to the First and Second Quarter of 2012.

* The market will reward innovative, well marketed projects but will not cover executional “sins” of any material kind.

* Product priced between $525,000 and $1 million that completes prior to February 2013 will continue to be hit hardest by the uncertainty over the HST.

* Incentive offerings will be a must for projects in competitive market areas if developers are to accelerate absorptions. A good time to buy!

RESIDENTIAL MARKET SUMMARY

WHAT TO WATCH


Finally, there are a number of the questions we at Colliers are asking ourselves as we enter the Fourth Quarter of 2011 and the First Quarter of 2012:

WILL THE GOVERNMENT PROVIDE CLEAR TRANSITION RULES REGARDING HST OR PROVIDE CLEAR INFORMATION ON WHAT’S NEXT? We anxiously look forward to clarity in this area from our government.

WHAT IMPACT WILL THE ONGOING GLOBAL ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKETS HAVE ON CONSUMER PSYCHOLOGY AND DEVELOPER MIND SET?People can only take so much posturing, “bubble talk” and bad news before

they stop acting and wait and see. Many pundits believe our economy and

markets are more resilient and will continue to be. Others are starting to

preach doom and gloom to anyone who will listen. Who is right?

WHAT IMPACT WILL THE OUTCOME OF THE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN NOVEMBER HAVE ON THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AND THE MARKET FOR HOUSING?The temperature outside may be cooling off but the campaigns for control of

civic leadership positions are just heating up. Will there be intelligent

dialogue and debate or polarity? Which municipalities are most likely to see

change? Which are most likely to see the status quo until next time round?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?As always, we value your input. If you have views you’d like to share and/or

questions that you would like to see answered in future editions please

contact us directly at [email protected].

W. Scott Brown

SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

RESIDENTIAL MARKET SUMMARY

WHAT TO WATCH

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

WESTERN CANADAW. Scott Brown, Senior Vice President Suite 1900, 200 Granville StreetVancouver, British ColumbiaCanada V6C 2R6 MAIN +1 604 681 4111 DIRECT +1 604 661 0877 EMAIL [email protected]

EASTERN CANADAChristine Brennan, Vice President One Queen Street East, Suite 2200Toronto, OntarioCanada M5C 2Z2 MAIN +1 416 777 2200 DIRECT +1 416 643 3462 EMAIL [email protected]

www.colliers.com/residential

www.urbananalytics.ca

urbanANALYT ICS INC

This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and /or its licensor(s). © 2011. All rights reserved

Vancouver Lower Mainland: West Vancouver to Aldergrove. Excludes Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Mission. Resale Data: MLS sold for attached product (high rise, low rise, and townhomes) built within the last ten years for units valued less that $1.2 million. Single family sales are excluded from the report.

colliers residential marketshare q3 - 2011

Real Estate