cognitive triangle -...

National Ground Intelligence Center

INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMAND

Cognitive Triangle

Dec 2012

THIS INFORMATION IS FURNISHED WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT IT IS TO BE

USED FOR DEFENSE PURPOSES ONLY; THAT IT IS TO BE AFFORDED ESSENTIALLY

THE SAME DEGREE OF SECURITY PROTECTION AS SUCH INFORMATION IS

AFFORDED BY THE UNITED STATES; THAT IT IS NOT TO BE REVEALED TO

ANOTHER COUNTRY OR INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION WITHOUT THE WRITTEN

CONSENT OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT OR AGENCY

FURNISHING THE INFORMATION.

The Overall classification of this Briefing is

UNCLASSIFIED



Name of the Game

• Too much information…Too fast for humans…not enough

humans… Competitive environment

• Computers to the rescue! …Information management

• Collect & process information, all that you can

• Transform into decision & action

• The complex (static and dynamic), competitive

environments…capitalism, war, sports, casinos, disaster

relief

• Increasingly both are being dominated by autonomous

systems

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3

“Flash crash” of 6 May 2010

Oakland A’s story in “Moneyball”

Computer-Assisted Legal research (CALR)

NYT Science Times: December 4, 2012

For Second Opinion, Consult a Computer?

By Chris Steiner



Example

• Algorithmic trading is the use of an algorithm for entering

trading orders and deciding on aspects of the order such

as the timing, price, or quantity of the order, or in many

cases initiating the order without human intervention.

• A special class of algorithmic trading is high frequency

trading (HFT), in which computers make elaborate

decisions to initiate orders based on information that is

received electronically, before human traders are capable

of processing the information they observe.

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Complex event processing

• Complex event processing, or CEP, is event processing

that combines data from multiple sources to infer events or

patterns that suggest more complicated circumstances.

• The goal of CEP is to identify meaningful events (such as

opportunities or threats) and/or patterns and respond to

them as quickly as possible

• CEP is used with business process management (BPM) to

focus on end-to-end business processes, in order to

continuously optimize and align for its operational

environment.

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CEP Solutions

• Most CEP solutions and concepts can be classified into

two main categories:

– Computation-oriented CEP

• Executing on-line algorithms as a response to event data entering the

system.

– Detection-oriented CEP

• detecting combinations of events called events patterns or situations

• Creates actionable, situational knowledge…but not

decisions or actions

• Uses the computer and the network part of the triangle

• A more complete process is the OODA Loop

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OODA

• The OODA loop (for observe, orient, decide, and act) is a

concept originally applied to the military operations and is

now also often applied to commercial operations and

learning processes

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OODA Loop Operations

• Designed to describe a competition

• The key is to obscure your intentions and make them

unpredictable to your opponent while you simultaneously

clarify his intentions.

• Operate at a faster tempo to generate rapidly changing

conditions that inhibit your opponent from adapting or

reacting to those changes and that suppress or destroy his

awareness.

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Cognitive &

Social Science

Issues

Machine

Learning

Sensing/Perception Natural Language

Dialogue System

Brain-Computer

Interface Software Agents

Multi-Agent

Systems

Machine

The Cognitive Triangle



Goal

• How does one engineer the cognitive processes and

distribution to maximize overall system metrics such as

speed of data input-to decision-output or reduction of

errors and false alarms?

• What has cognitive science/engineering discovered

concerning interacting with computer-based information

systems?

– Are there cognitive processes in the human brain that can be

emulated or simulated (by computer) which, when combined in the

triangle, will improve throughput, bandwidth or some other system

metric?

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Cognitive Triangle and the OODA

Loop

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Machine Machine

Machine

Machine



Possible Scenario 1

5 Day Disaster Relief

Race against time

• Natural disaster (earthquake/tsunami) hits populated

regions around part of the Pacific rim.

• Humanitarian relief must be provided ASAP including:

– Survivor search

– Hospital services

– Food, water, shelter

– Basic energy infrastructure (to run hospitals, transportation)

• ASAP is to prevent disease (it’s a race)---5 days

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Possible Scenario 2

Competition

• Football rivals: World Cup, USA vs Brazil

• Factors to be considered:

– Team roster

– Training

– History of performance, individual and group

– Tactics, techniques, and procedures

• Goal is to assemble and run a team throughout the

season designed to win the world cup against Brazil

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1. Cognitive Load Distribution

Function Machine Network Human

Observe X%, ∆X Y%, ∆Y Z%, ∆Z

Orient

Decide

Act

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For each OODA loop function….How is the cognitive load distributed?

What enabling tech must be improved to optimize the distribution?

How and by what delta % wil the load change due to expected emerging

tech improvements?



Enabling Technologies

• First consideration is to systems-integration challenges:

– Don’t stovepipe the enablers

– Mastery of individual enablers does not ensure success,

integration of enablers does

• Determine key research goals in the enabling technology

areas as they relate to OODA Loop performance.

• List the relevant milestones that must be reached

enabling technologies

– List the relevant impediments to achieving technological

breakthroughs in these areas

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2. Performance Improvement

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The ultimate metric of interest is the “time through the OODA loop”

What is the best performance improvement (time) that can be expected

given anticipated improvements in enabling technologies?

• Substitute is % improvement based on enabling tech improvement



Tasks

• Select a scenario or scenarios

• Determine current performance (sliding scale?)

– Optional in the sense that “deltas” are acceptable

• Examine the enabling technologies to determine load and

% improvement in the context of OODA Loop application

– No stovepipes

• Determine the performance metric and “deltas”

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Bottom Line

• To transit the OODA loop:

– What improvements must be made in each enabling tech area?

– By how much?

• How much performance improvement can be expected in

the OODA loop?

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