coal, carbon, and the future of the global energy mix...aug ‐ 07 sep ‐ 07 oct ‐ 07 nov ‐ 07...
TRANSCRIPT
http://pesd.stanford.edu • Stanford Universityhttp://pesd.stanford.edu • Stanford University
Coal, Carbon, and the Future of the Global Energy Mix
By Richard Morse
Woods Institute Energy SeminarMarch 4, 2009
http://pesd.stanford.edu • Stanford University 2
Agenda
1. Background
2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade
3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal
4. China’s Coal Market
5. Coal and CO2 Mitigation
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Coal under siege?
“Coal‐fired power stations are death factories. Close them. […] coal is the single greatest threat to civilization and all life on our planet.” – Dr. James Hansen of NASA
“If somebody wants to build a coal fired power plant they can, its just that it will bankrupt them because they are going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.” – Barack Obama to SF Chronicle
“Coal is my worst nightmare.” – Steve Chu (pre‐DOE)
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Or coal renaissance?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Non‐OECD OECD
All other fuelsCoal
Shares of incremental energy demand Reference Scenario, 2006 – 2030 (IEA)Increase in primary demand, 2000 – 2007 (IEA)
Mtoe
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
Coal Oil Gas Renewables Nuclear
4.8%
1.6% 2.6%
2.2%
0.8%
% = average annual rate of growth
Source: IEA WEO 2008
Coal is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel
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Emissions from coal outpace all other energy sources
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5
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15
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25
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35
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gigaton
nes International
marine bunkersand aviation
Non‐OECD ‐ gas
Non‐OECD ‐ oil
Non‐OECD ‐ coal
OECD ‐ gas
OECD ‐ oil
OECD ‐ coal
IEA Projection of Energy Related Emissions to 2030
Source: IEA WEO 2008
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Asia’s massive growth of coal‐ fired generation capacity
Drivers
•Cheap cost of energy fuels development
• Energy security: wide distribution of reserves and suppliers
Source: ABARE
Total: 579.21 GW20% realization = ~400 million tons of coal new demand annually
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PESD’s work on coal
Goal: How will country‐level political economy factors affect global patterns of coal production, trade, and use under different scenarios?
Two Part Study:
1. Global Coal Trade Model (DIW Berlin)
2. Political Economy Case Studies
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Agenda
1. Background
2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade
3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal
4. China’s Coal Market
5. Coal and CO2 Mitigation
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Distribution of global reserves
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Ritschel, Schiffer 2007
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Steam coal trade has increased dramatically
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
million metric tons
Overland Trade
Source: IEA Coal Statistics
Steam Coa
lsCo
king
Coa
ls
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The global market: trade flows
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Ritschel, Schiffer 2007
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250Sep‐03
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$ / metric ton
Price formation is increasingly linked in the international market
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Richards Bay
Europe
Central Appalachia
Newcastle
Source: Reuters
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Domestic markets are increasingly linked to international markets
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USD/ton Spot price of Qinghuangdao(QHD) and Newcastle
Source: Newcastle data from Reuters; Qinhuangdao Data from CCTD converted with exchange rate data from NY Fed.Newcastle coals are 6700 kc/kg , QHD coals are 5800kc/kg
QHD
Newcastle
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Agenda
1. Background
2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade
3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coala) Europeb) USA
4. China’s Coal Market
5. Coal and CO2 Mitigation
http://pesd.stanford.edu • Stanford University
‐40
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€/ MWh
Carbon Starts to Close the Gap
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€/ MWh
Coal is More Profitable
Power generation economics favor coal
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Spark
Clean Spark‐Dark
Clean Dark
Clean Spark
Spark‐Dark
Dark
Source: Reuters
The German power market
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Carbon markets to 2012
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0
5
10
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30
35
€/ ton
EUA Futures Markets
Dec '12 Dec '11
Dec '10 Dec '09
Source: Reuters, ECX
Post 2012? NO REAL MARKET – Huge policy uncertainty creates big risks for coal investment
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Agenda
1. Background
2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade
3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coala) Europeb) USA
4. China’s Coal Market
5. Coal and CO2 Mitigation
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Lurking cap and trade
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The risk is real but not much else…
Obama’s budget assumes roughly $14 / ton in 2012 with full auctioning.
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Political tolerance for carbon prices are likely to constrain carbon’s impact on coal
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Source: PJM
$55/ton
Regional politics are likely to dictate the amount of carbon permits that are initially sold vs. given away for free
(allocations vs. auctions)
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Mass vs. EPA signals looming CO2 regulation
• Regulation is being used to stop coal plant permitting and is likely to have a greater impact than carbon price signals for the foreseeable future.
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The environmental movement poses a serious challenge to coal
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Source: Sierra Club Coal Campaign
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Agenda
1. Background
2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade
3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coala) Europeb) USA
4. China’s Coal Market
5. Coal and CO2 Mitigation
http://pesd.stanford.edu • Stanford University
Coal is Dominant Energy for China
23
Oil 20%
Natural Gas 3%
Coal 70%
Nuclear Energy 1%
Hydro electric 6%
70% of China Primary Energy from CoalSource: 2007 data from China National Bureau of Statistics, 2008
Coal‐fired81%
Hydro17%
Nuclear2%
WindOthers
81% Electricity Generated by CoalSource: 2008 data from China Electricity Council
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Beijing Power ($/MWh)
Coal Cost ($/ MWh)
Uneven reform of the Chinese energy sector creates erratic market behavior
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Implied margin for power generators (excluding O&M)
July 1: power prices raised slightly
Aug 20: power prices raised slightly again
June 19: coal prices capped
Aug 20: export taxes on all coals
July 24: price cap reinforced
Sources: McCloskey’s, China NRDC
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Agenda
1. Background
2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade
3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal
4. China’s Coal Market
5. Coal and CO2 Mitigation
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The state of clean coal for power generation
Vattenfall’s 30 MW demo plant at Schwarze Pumpe, Germany
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Efficiency gains represent huge mitigation potential in the near term
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CCS: Green Gen 400 MW demo plant to be fully operational by 2020…
Efficiency investment may represent the greatest CO2mitigation potential in the near term
Coal plant efficiency and emissions
Source: IEA Clean Coal Center
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Agenda
1. Background
2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade
3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal
4. China’s Coal Market
5. Coal and CO2 Mitigation
Conclusions:
1. Large growth in coal demand ahead2. Cap and trade has some impact in the West when carbon prices are strong, but
regulation and policy risk could play a larger role in the near term3. Asian development currently depends on coal4. Need to understand China (and Asia’s) coal markets and evaluate all possible
mitigation options
Contact: [email protected]
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US coal pricing
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$ / metric ton
Central App
PRB Wyoming
Europe
Source: Reuters
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Long term generation outlook: capacity shortage will need to be filled
30
Source: RWE
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Coal’s carbon exposure is complex
Key Cap and Trade Issues from Coal’s Perspective
• Political tolerance for strong carbon prices?
• Will we reach a meaningful switching point?
– Customer First proposal
• AEP, Duke, Progress Energy, Southern Company back 100% free permits
31
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Policy uncertainty is the biggest threat to investment in new coal capacity
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Carbon Post 2012:
•Indecision on Kyoto offset provisions, CER quantity and quality, EC favors tightening
•Long term prices could reach meaningful switching points
•Possible increase to from 20% to 30% Kyoto reduction target
•Coal Emissions Performance Standard?
Renewables Threaten Coal Utilization Rates and Favor Gas:
•Renewables target 20% by 2020, could be exceeded (IEA 27%)
•Decreases coal utilization rates, creates uncertain economics
•Increasingly favors gas for balancing power
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What we know about EU ETS beyond 2012: auctions vs. allocations
EU ETS Phase III:
1. Regional discrepancies in the cost of emissions permits split coal economics
• Full auctioning in the West
• The East ramps up auctioning slowly, reaching full auctioning in 2020
2. Impacts:
• RWE cancels all coal plants in western Europe
• Are we seeing an East / West split for coal economics?
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Implications for US cap and trade?