the united states association for energy economics (usaee) - … · 2009. 6. 30. · 0 50 100 150...
TRANSCRIPT
BP Statistical Review of World EnergyJune 2009
Volatility and Structural Change
Mark FinleyGeneral Manager, Global Energy MarketsJune 22nd, 2009© BP 2009
Outline
• Introduction
• Volatility and Structural Change
• Fuel by Fuel
• Conclusion
GDP (y-o-y)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Real Fed Funds rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 20080
2
4
6
8
10
12GDP grow th (lhs)World trade grow th (rhs)
%
Growth in global GDP and trade
Source: Includes data from IMF World Economic Outlook and Oxford Economics
%
US real policy rates and GDP growth
%
The Economy
2001 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Oil (Brent)
Coal (NW Europe)
Gas (Henry Hub)
Energy Prices
Index: Jan-07=100
Source: Includes data from Platts and McCloskey
OECD and Non-OECD Energy Consumption
0
1000
2000
3000
1978 1988 1998 2008
OECD Non-OECD
Mtoe
0
1000
2000
3000
1978 1988 1998 2008
OECD Non-OECD
0
2000
4000
6000
1978 1988 1998 2008
OECD Non-OECD
0
1000
2000
3000
1978 1988 1998 2008
OECD Non-OECD
Mtoe
Oil
CoalMtoe
Mtoe
Gas
Primary energy
GDP and Primary Energy Growth
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GDP Primary energy
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GrowthOECD Non-OECD
Growth
Source: Includes data from Oxford Economics
0
30
60
90
120
150
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Dated Brent Annual averages
Crude Prices: What Happened?
$/bbl
Source: Includes data from Platts
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
GasolineDiesel + Jet-Kero
Oil Consumption Growth
-1.6
-0.8
0.0
0.8
1.6
2005 2006 2007 2008
OECDNon-OECDWorld
Mb/d
China
World y-o-y, Mb/d
OECD
Source: Includes data from IEA
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Oilexporters
Non-OECDoil
importers
OECD oi limporters ex
US
US Subsidizers Taxers
Mb/dOil exporters and importers Tax and subsidy regimes
10-year average
Oil Consumption Growth in 2008
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Production
Consumption
OPEC-12 crude oil productiony-o-y, Mb/d
OPEC Adjusts to Falling Consumption
Source: Includes data from US DOE
Global consumption and productiony-o-y, Mb/d
20092009
QatarAngola
KuwaitKazakhstanBrazil
CanadaRussia
UKNorway
USNigeria
Mexico
Iraq
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4Mb/d Decrease Increase
Saudi Arabia
Non-OPEC
FSU
OPEC
Main Oil Production Changes
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Non-OPEC
OPEC OPEC Non-OPEC
Changes in Production and Inventories
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2003-2007 range
OECD commercial inventories
20082009
Million barrels
Source: Includes data from IEA
Mb/d 2007 2008
OPEC-12
crude
Global oil production changes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
North America S&C America EuropeMiddle East Africa Asia Pacif ic
Mb/d
Non-OPEC ex FSU Oil Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
OPEC FSU OtherR/P (years)
Note: Showing R/P ratios of over 20 years and reserves over 2 billion barrels.
Reserves-to-Production Ratios
OPEC World FSU Other
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
OPEC FSU OECD Other Other Oil Sands
Global Oil Reserves
Bn bbls
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
2006 2007 2008
From new investment
From lower crude runs
Refining Margins and Spare Capacity
0
2
4
6
8
10
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
BP GIM10-year average
$/bbl Mb/dRefining margins Spare capacity growth
Source: Includes data from Parpinelli and Energy Security Analysis Inc.
Natural Gas Market
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Production Consumption
Non-OECDOECD
Bcm$/mmbtuGas prices Growth in 2008
Source: Includes data from Platts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Japan LNGEU contractUK NBPUS Henry Hub
US Gas Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
BcmGas production
410
430
450
470
490
510
530
550
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
2005
2006
2007
2008
20042001
20032002
1998
20001997
1999
Bcm
Gas rig count
Production vs. rig count outsideGulf of Mexico
Sources: Includes data from US DOE and Baker Hughes
Non-conventional gas
Conventional gas
Atlantic Basin LNG*
0
20
40
60
80
2007 2008
Sources: Includes annual data from Cedigaz and quarterly figures from Waterborne LNG
* LNG from Algeria, Belgium, Egypt, Nigeria, Norway, Trinidad and Equatorial Guinea
Bcm
By importer
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Asia US
Switching between markets
y-o-y change, Bcm
Europe
Americas
Asia
Coal Prices and Consumption Growth
0
60
120
180
240
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
NWE CIFUS CAAPJapan Steam coalQinhuangdao spot
$/tonne
Sources: Includes data from McCloskey and Platts
18.5
7.8
6.4
5.1
-4.5
-2.8
-8.3
-5.6
-4.8
China
India
Russia
South Korea
South Africa
UK
Australia
Germany
Spain
US
Consumption growth
92.7
MtoePrices
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
RoW China
10-year average
Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output
Nuclear Hydroy-o-y growth
Global Ethanol Production
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US Brazil ROWMtoe
Renewable Energy
MexicoNorth Sea
Wind capacity
0
50
100
150
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US GermanySpain ChinaRoW
GW
Solar PV capacity
0
5
10
15
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US GermanySpain JapanRoW
GW
Sources: Includes data from BTM Consult, IEA, EPIA and EurObserver
CO2 Emissions and Prices
12
13
14
15
16
17
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
OECD Non-OECD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Dec-09 contract
€/tonne of CO2 equivalentBillion tonnes of CO2
Source: Includes prices from European Climate Exchange
EU Emissions Trading SchemeGlobal CO2 emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2002 2004 2006 2008
OECD Non-OECDBillion toe
GDP, Population and Primary Energy Consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2004 2006 2008
OECD Non-OECDTrillion, 2000$
Primary energyGDP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2002 2004 2006 2008
OECD Non-OECD
PopulationBillion
Source: Includes data from Oxford Economics and US DOE
Conclusion
• 2008: Rapid market adjustment
• Non-OECD: The future is here
• Volatility: Unavoidable in our industry?
BP Statistical Review of World EnergyJune 2009
Volatility and Structural Change
Q & A
© BP 2009
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Spain Germany UK France EU
Coal Gas
Coal in the European Union
0.8
-9.2
-3.8
-1.1
US
Russia
Indonesia
Austral ia
SouthAfrica
Mtoe Million tonnes
8.8
Gas and coal consumption growth Changes in EU coal imports by source
Sources: Includes data from Eurostat