cloud revolution conitnues
TRANSCRIPT
DATACLOUD ASIA23 February 2017 / Singapore
BILL BARNEYChief Executive OfficerRELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS & GLOBAL CLOUD XCHANGE
2017:THE CLOUD REVOLUTIONCONTINUES…
1. Observations On The Impact Of The Cloud Revolution 2. 2017 And Beyond: The Disruptive Opportunities 3. The Sure Bets of the Future 4. Final Thoughts
Agenda
Observations on the Impact of the Cloud Revolution
Cloud has enabled new forms of Data Generators
Source: Apple, DJI, Waze, Tesla, Microsoft, Ring, Fitbit, B & H Foto & Electronics.
The Facts:
Source: Forbes “2017 Internet of Things Facts”
This year, we will have 4.9 billion connected things....some predict that by 2020, the number of Internet-connected things will reach or even exceed 50 billion.
In 2015, over 1.4 billion smart phones will be shipped and by 2020 we will have a staggering 6.1 billion smartphone users.
By 2020, a quarter of a billion vehicles will be connected to the Internet, giving us completely new possibilities for in-vehicle services and automated driving.
Today, the market for Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags, used for transmitting data to identify and track objects, is worth $11.1 billion. This is predicted to rise to $21.9 billion in 2020.
Machine-to-machine (M2M) connections will grow from 5 billion at the beginning of this year to 27 billion by 2024, with China taking a 21% share and the U.S. 20%.
CISCO believes the IoT could generate $4.6 trillion over the next ten years for the public sector, and $14.4 trillion for the private sector.
We are seeing unprecedented growth because the “global data” ecosystem is finally here
Sour
ces
of L
ever
age
for G
loba
l Int
erne
t Gro
wth The Network Large investments in fiber optic & last-mile cables created connectivity that
facilitated the early Internet growth
The SoftwareOptimizing the network with software became far more capital efficient than additional capex buildouts...ultimately resulting in the creation of pervasive networks (siloed data centers AWS)...& then ➔ pervasive software (Siebel ➔Salesforce)
The Infrastructure Emergence of pervasive software created the need to optimize the performance of the network & store extraordinary amounts of data at extremely low prices
The DataNext Big Wave = Leveraging this unlimited connectivity & storage to collect / aggregate / correlate / interpret all of this data to improve people’s lives & enable enterprises to operate more efficiently
Source: Adam Ghetti, Ionic Security; Ted Schlein, KPCB.
The “Third Wave” of Cloud Innovation will bring hyper-growth and unprecedented appetite for fiber and big computing
New Major Technology Cycles = Often Support 10x More User & Devices, Driven by Lower Price + Improved Functionality
Increasing Integration
– lower cost
Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively;Source: ITU, Morgan Stanley Research.
Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1MM+Units 10MM+
Units 100MM+Units
10B+Units??
1B+Units/Users
The falling costs are a huge catalyst of growth Global Data Growth Rising Fast = +50% CAGR since 2010...Data Infrastructure Costs Falling Fast = -20% CAGR
Peta
byte
s of
Dat
a
Cost
per
GB
of S
tora
ge
$0.20
$0.15
$0.10
$0.05
10B
8B
6B
4B
2B
0B2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Data in Digital Universe (Petabytes) Storage Costs ($/GB)
Data in Digital Universe vs. Data Storage Costs, 2010 – 2015
Source: IDC, May 2016.
Hyper-growth and unprecedented appetite for fiber and big computing in the “Third Wave” of Cloud Innovation…So
ftwar
eSe
curit
yIn
frast
ruct
ure
Evolution
Breaking ApartData Bottleneck
Revolution
Data Integratedinto Everything
FIRST WAVEConstrained Data...
Monolithic Systems, Expensive Storage,Data for Targeted Use Cases
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (BI)
Business Objects,Cognos, Micro Strategy
DATA INTEGRATIONInformatica
DATA INTEGRITYMicrosoft, Oracle
Age of Oracle, Sybase
SECOND WAVEData Explosion / Chaos...
Decentralized Systems,Cheap Storage, Big Data Everywhere
VISUALIZATION
PREP / WRANGLING
INFRASTRUCTURE-CENTRIC SECURITY &
MANAGEMENTPalo Alto Networks, FireEye
Age of Big DataHadoop, Teradata,
Netezza, NetApp, EMC, Greenplum
CLOUD BI
ETL
CACHING
THIRD WAVEMass Data Intelligence...
Pervasive Systems, Big/Fast Storage,Data Instruments the Business
DEPARTMENTALAPPLICATIONS
Gainsight, Datadog,InsideSales
ORGANIZATION-WIDE ANALYTICS PLATFORMS
Looker, Domo, Anaplan
DATA-CENTRIC SECURITY & MANAGEMENT
Ionic Security, Tanium
Age of Big/FastRedshift, BigQuery,
Spark, Presto
Source: Looker, Ionic Security, KPCB 2016
Current Generation of Internet Leaders = Growing Faster than Previous Generation
MarketplacesGross Merchandise Value (GMV), Time Shifted
Alibaba vs. eBay vs. Airbnb vs. Uber
CommerceGross Merchandise Value (GMV), Time Shifted
Amazon.com vs. JD.com
EnterpriseEst. Quarterly Revenue ($MM), Time Shifted
Salesforce vs. Slack
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
4
8
12
16
20
Alibaba/Taobao eBayAirbnb Uber
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 190
20406080
100120140160180200
JD.com Amazon.com
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Salesforce Slack
Marketplaces Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. eBay founded in 1995. Amazon founded in 1995. Alibaba.com founded in 1999 as B2B portal connecting Chinese manufacturers andoverseas buyers. Uber launched 2009, gave first ride in 2010. Airbnb founded in 2008..Commerce Source: Publicly available company data, Morgan Stanley Research. JD.com launched B2C shipments in 2004, founded 1998 as an online magneto-optical store. Amazon founded in 1995.Enterprise Source: Slack. Graph starting point based on similar est. revenue figures. Salesforce quarterly revenue approximated from publicly disclosed annual GAAP revenues.
GM
V ($
B)
Years Since Launch (T+)
GM
V ($
B)
Years Since Launch (T+)
Reve
nue
($M
M)
The Cloud market is exploding!
World wide Hosting & Cloud Market Size, 2010 – 2019
Source: 451 Research, Cloud Computing Market Monitor, 2016 & Transforming Network Infrastructure
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
26,16231,358
38,50749,188
59,806
71,912
85,402
100,333
116,619
134,411
Cloud Share Increases from 7% to 28%
“Data is moving from something you use outside the workstream to becoming a part of the business app itself.
It’s how the new knowledge worker is actually performing their job.”
FRANK BIEN, CEO OF LOOKER, 2016
2017 and Beyond:The Disruptive Opportunities
If Jobs were alive today he would likely say...
“Whoever masters the combination of server orchestration, fiber ubiquity and low cost global access to competing computing
resources will be the technology infrastructure company of the next decade”
And this is just the beginning...
“We’re going to demote the PC and the Mac to just be a device. And
we’re going to move the digital hub, the center of your digital life,
into the Cloud” --Steve Jobs
Company Region 2017 Market Cap ($Bn)Apple USA 698.89Alphabet Inc. (Google) USA 580.78Microsoft USA 500.51Facebook USA 387.40Amazon.com USA 397.47Alibaba China 258.12Tencent China 246.76AT&T USA 249.94China Mobile China 234.98Samsung Electronics Korea 230.43Verizon USA 198.21IBM USA 179.36Intel USA 169.70Oracle USA 168.57TSMC Taiwan 164.42Cisco Systems USA 160.43SAP Germany 113.65NTT Japan 87.45
Disruptive Opportunity #1 : There has yet to be a value creator in the global infrastructure space
Source: Ycharts, Feb 2017
Most of these companies used their internal Clouds, yet have not yet built it for the rest of the enterprises.
Amazon and Tencent have an early lead in compute and storage, yet have very limited high-end global distribution.
ABIL
ITY
TO E
XECU
TE
ASSETS TO EXECUTE
CHALLENGERS
SINGLE OR LIMITED ASSETS ALL ASSET CLASSES AND GEOGRAPHIC REACH
LEADERS
ORACLE
AMAZON
ALIBABA
GLOBAL FIBER OPERATORS
MICROSOFT
GLOBAL DATA CENTER OPERATORS
US FIBER WHOLESALERS
EUROPENA FIBER WHOLESALERS
The Future Cloud Infrastructure Quadrant
Note: Data above based on countries including the US and those in the Middle East, Europe and Asia ex-China
Disruptive Opportunity #2 : Whoever can make the emerging markets their home markets will have an unprecedented advantage with huge demand ahead Innovation and expansion across emerging markets will reap biggest benefits of the Cloud as requirements continue to grow
75% of world’s population is in Emerging Markets and is underserved;
Emerging Markets saw >1400% Internet growth in last 5 years;
4 Billion+ people still do not have Internet access.
75% of world’s population is in Emerging Markets and is underserved;
Emerging Markets saw >1400% Internet growth in last 5 years;
4 Billion+ people still do not have Internet access.
Source: WCI and EIU data
The Emerging Markets Corridor connects over 2.0bn Internet subscribers currently and is expected to account for over 70% of the world’s smart phone growth and over 80% of
the world’s GDP growth over the next 5 years
Digital user distribution by region – JAN 2017Each region’s share f the world’s population, global internet and
social media users, and global mobile connections
T: Total Population A: Active social Media Account I: Internet Users M: Mobile Connections
North AmericaT:5% A: 8%I: 8% M: 5%
West EuropeT:6% A: 8%I: 9% M: 7%
East EuropeT:6% A: 7%I: 8% M: 8%
East AsiaT:22% A: 33%I: 24% M: 22%
Central AmericaT:3% A: 4%I: 3% M: 3%
Middle EastT:3% A: 3%I: 4% M: 4%
Central AsiaT:1% A: <1%I: 1% M: 1%
Southeast AsiaT:9% A: 11%I: 9% M: 11%
South AmericaT:6% A: 9%I: 7% M: 7%
AfricaT:16% A: 6%I: 10% M: 13%
South AsiaT:24% A: 9%I: 16% M: 19%
OceaniaT:1% A: 1%I: 1% M: 1%
Cloud computing will exponentially increase the speed of Internet penetration...
Grow
th in
201
25
Growth Potential (2015-2022)
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Japan
Growth Markets Indonesia
IndiaChina
ThailandVietnam
High Growth Markets
Mature Markets
AustraliaPhilippines
Hong Kong
SingaporeMalaysia
SouthKorea
Taiwan
New Zealand
Data Center Owners will be big winners in the next decade, and the Emerging Markets will be growth engines of these Data Centers...
Note: CAGR for the period 2015-2022Note: All figure are rounded; the base year is 2015. Source: Frost $ Sullivan analysis.
Disruptive Opportunity #3: There is no leading player in the emerging market corridor in the data center space, only one in the orchestration space and lastly a mere two competitors with fiber leadership
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The high concentration of Data Centers in USA and Europe are far from most
users in the Emerging Markets. Regulatory
compliance, user experience, reliability and cost factors will mandate significant movement of data
closer to users.
The Sure Bets of the Future for Cloud Providers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
KVA Per Rack
USD
in R
even
ue P
er R
ack
100 MVA facilities with Exabytes of Fiber capacity will be the centers of the next decade
Network CostsBuild CostsOperating CostsData Center MarginNetwork Margin
Source: RCOM/GCX Research
Sure Bet #1: The Networked Data Center will be at the Core of future
Sure Bet #2: Distributed focused compute centers will be the wave of the future
Understanding the FOC High Power density data centers with strong fiber
connectivity and internet gravity Located in city and tech centers 80% to 90% of cash generated from services and “spot
services” High customer engagement with average customer growing
at double digits or more per year Expensive build at $12K to $14K a KVA Tech like investment vehicles with hyper growth and high
velocity of innovation
Understanding the STOC Lower power density with build costs ranging from $6K to $9K a
KVA Longer term stickier customers and revenue streams Located in low rent optimal cooling locations 80% to 90% of cash generated from storage and “industrial
computing” Real estate like investment profile with REIT or Trust like capital
structures
Sure Bet #3: With Orchestration ecosystems in your data centers, you will win!
CRM, ERP, etc.Already Integrated with 100+ Networks
Low cost, Pay as you go /deviceLaunch in weeks
Devices Networks IoT Services Platform IoT Apps / IT
deep
ly in
tegr
ated
AutomateThe Service Lifecycle
Orchestration capability
25
Final Thoughts
26
Whoever masters the combination of server orchestration, fiber ubiquity and low cost global access to competing computing resources will
be the technology infrastructure company of the next decade...