CLIMATE DRIVER (SLR, Drought, Flood)

CLIMATE DRIVER (SLR, Drought, Flood)

Factors(buffer? accelerate?)

Climate impacts(e.g., reduction in

yields)

Coping Strategies(Crop diversification

Migration)

Societal consequences (trade

offs/synergies)

Factors that buffer/accelerate impacts (Matrix at each geographical timescale: global, nat, sub-nat, local)•Biophysical (eg: mangrove being decimated)•Institutional (no land tenure system)•Technological (a dam)•Economic (market in place)•Social (AIDS? Safety nets?)•Policy•Culture•…

Factors that buffer/accelerate impacts (Matrix at each geographical timescale: global, nat, sub-nat, local)•Biophysical (eg: mangrove being decimated)•Institutional (no land tenure system)•Technological (a dam)•Economic (market in place)•Social (AIDS? Safety nets?)•Policy•Culture•…

Effects of Climate Impacts & resulting Adaptation strategies on:•Governance•Livelihoods (food security)•Gender relations and social equity•Resource Degradation•Biogeochemical cycles (feedback loops)

Effects of Climate Impacts & resulting Adaptation strategies on:•Governance•Livelihoods (food security)•Gender relations and social equity•Resource Degradation•Biogeochemical cycles (feedback loops)

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK for INVESTIGATING ADEQUACY OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Which strategies enhance or retard resilience of small-scale rural producers to climate change?

• Develop/test methodologies for assessing coping and adaptation strategies and their multiple outcomes for food security, environment and livelihoods at the community level

• Evidence-based assessment of coping/adaptation strategies to assess effectiveness of interventions

How to do it?• Step 1 (by Sept end): Meta-analysis of:

– CCAFS baseline surveys of 5000 hhs– literature of factors associated with coping/adaptation strategies– gap analysis of methods

• Step 2 (early 2012): Workshop to identify pilot studies in CCAFS regions and refine methodology based on meta-analysis

• Step 3 (mid 2012): Pilot study of communities to develop methodologies (small number)

• Step 4 (end of project): Methods and policy recommendations

Criteria for selecting pilot communities (small number as function of $$$)

• Cover 3 CCAF regions• Use communities/villages where baseline

CCAFS has surveyed social capital• Don’t duplicate other studies• Cover range of production systems and

climate shocks• Communities where history of adaptation• ….

Pilot study communities

• Disciplines include:– Climate, adaptation, land use/land cover,

institutional/governance, anthropology– Development, agriculture applications

• Methods include:– Community vulnerability and capacity assessments (participatory

community, focus groups, vulnerability capacity assessment, household surveys)

– Landscape changes (remote sensing)– climate historical data– changes in yield/cultivars/traits– trade-off and synergy analysis

What is novel about this proposal?

• Empirical testing of methods to evaluate multiple consequences of coping/adaptation strategies on food security, environment, and livelihoods, including:– societal consequences of current adaptation strategies, including on

food security, gender relations/social equity, local governance– feedbacks to biogeochemical cycles and land use

• Development of climate-resilient and climate-smart policy recommendations to enhance adaptation at the local level

• Generalizable methods to assess rural producer strategies and their viability with changing climate

Truly interdisciplinary (really!)GEC research Agriculture development

What they bring •Climate data•Adaptation science•Methods•Land use/land cover•Remote sensing

• ground knowledge of production systems •Small holder concerns•Access and mobilization (CCAF sites)•Extension•Land use/land cover•Knowledge of yields, adaptation strategies, markets, factors influencing producers etc.

What they get Improved understanding of institutional, social underpinnings of small producer adaptation to climate stresses

Improve understanding of climate-resilient and climate-smart agricultural practices

Policy recommendations and methods

Volunteers for meta-analysis

• Overall: Arame Tall, Ruth DeFries

• Baseline surveys:– Florence Kyazze, Heznom Mogake (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania),

Bharat P. Upadhyay (Nepal)• Literature review:

Ariella Helfgott, Ahsan Uddin Ahmed, Cheikh Mbow (Senegal)

• Methods gap analysis:– Sharmind Neelormi, Ahsan Uddin Ahmed, Ariella Helfgott,

Ruth DeFries (RS)

Unresolved

• Partners?– Research community (PECS?)– Community-level partners and stakeholders

• Funders??