CLIMATE CHANGE & DROUGHT

Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar ReddyWALAMTARI

3RD O

ctob

er ,

201

3

1900 21002003 2050

The State of the Planet

Consequences: Four Earths needed in 2100

Present carbon cycle

SPEED OF EXCHANGE PROCESS

Very fast (less than 1 year)

Fast (1 to 10 years)

Slow (10 to 100 years)

Very slow (more than 100 years)

Storage and flux of carbon(in billions of tones)

Human activity influence

Variation of the temperature on Earth

Precipitation trends (1900 to 2000)

Source : IPCC/SRESA2

5 degrees = What separates us from the last glacial era (-15 000 BC)

Models’ forecasts : +1,4 to +5,8 degrees by 2100.

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATIONS

Visual impact of Climate Change

Less visual but with major impact

> Temperature increase> Sea level rise> More rain

Agriculture and food securityCrop yields, irrigation demands...

ForestComposition, health and productivity...

Water resourcesWater supply, water quality...

Coastal areas Erosion, inundation, cost of prevention...

Species and natural areasBiodiversity, modification of ecosystems...

Human healthInfectious diseases, human settlements...

Consequences of climate change:

Climate Changes in India

• Cooling trend in northwest India and parts of South India.

• Regional monsoon variations: increased monsoon seasonal rainfall along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh and North-western India, decreased monsoon seasonal rainfall over eastern Madhya Pradesh, North-eastern India, and parts of Gujrat and Kerala.

Climate Changes in India

• Observed trends of multi-decadal periods of more frequent droughts, followed by less severe droughts.

• Studies have shown a rising trend in the frequency of heavy rain events and decrease in frequency of moderate events over central India from 1951 to 2000.

12

Climate Changes in India

• Records of coastal tide gauges in the north Indian ocean for the last 40 years has revealed an estimated sea level rise between 1.06-1.75 mm per year.

• The available monitoring data on Himalayan glaciers indicates recession of some glaciers. 13

The State of the Planet

• Access to water is arguably the world’s most urgent resource issue– Every year about 5 million people die due to lack of access to water &

sanitation– Almost 30% of people live in countries suffering moderate-to-high water

stress– By 2025 more than 4 billion people will be living in water stressed

countries

• Between 1900-1995 global freshwater consumption rose six-fold, more than double the population growth rate

• More than 20% of the world's freshwater fish species have become extinct, threatened, or endangered in recent decades

• In 60% of the European cities with more than 100,000 people, groundwater is being used faster than it can be replenished

Resource Depletion - Freshwater

Vulnerability & Adaptation

VulnerabilityVulnerability to climate change is the risk of

adverse things happening Vulnerability is a function of three factors:

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Exposure

•Exposure is what is at risk from climate change, e.g.,– Population– Resources– Property

•It is also the climate change that an affected system will face, e.g., – Sea level– Temperature– Precipitation– Extreme events

Sensitivity

• Biophysical effect of climate change– Change in crop yield, runoff,

energy demand• It considers the socioeconomic

context, e.g., the agriculture system

• Grain crops typically are sensitive

• Manufacturing typically is much less sensitive

Adaptive Capacity

• Capability to adapt• Function of:

– Wealth– Technology – Education– Institutions– Information– Infrastructure– “Social capital”

• Having adaptive capacity does not mean it is used effectively

Vulnerability is a Function of …

• More exposure and sensitivity increase vulnerability

• More adaptive capacity decreases vulnerability

• An assessment of vulnerability should consider all three factors

Adaptation“adjustment in natural or human

systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities”

(Third Assessment Report, Working Group II)

Includes “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate

Adaptation (continued)

Two types of adaptationAutonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent

Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change

Climate Change will put additional stress in

rural areas

In the life of a farmer climate Variability and

Extreme events are more important

than climate change

Rural Livelihoods - Resources

The livelihoods of the rural poor are directly dependent on environmental resources.

Are vulnerable to weather and climate variability

land Water

Forests Energywater stress increases

groundwater levels recede

Drought

Meteorologically, ± 19% deviation of rainfall from the long-term mean is considered

‘normal’ in India. Deficiency in the range 20–59% represents ‘moderate’ drought, and more

than 60% is ‘severe’ drought.

Rainfall, temperature, evaporation, vegetation health, soil moisture, stream flow, etc. are

some of the critical parameters that are used in drought risk analysis

Meteorological :-

• Normal precipitation below 25%.

Hydrological :-

• Prolonged meteorological drought and drying of reservoirs, lakes, streams and rivers, cessation of spring flows and fall in groundwater levels.

Agricultural :-

• Depletion of soil moisture during the growing season. A dry situation with 20% probability and rainfall deficiency of more than 25% in drought-prone states of India.

Drought classification systems

Indian National Commission on Agriculture (1978)

Dro

ught

Man

agem

ent S

trat

egy

Life of a farmer is not cumulative values of rainfall, but the type of crop, amount

of rainfall, spread of rains, breaks in rainfall, etc. in relation with other

elements of nature, meteorology, etc.

Drought 2009 cause and what can be done?!

The drought is rare of this magnitude and for many people it is a one generation memory. Meteorological and information factors are responsible for this situation. Other cumulative factors are:

· Global recession· Increase in commodity prices· Occurrence of diseases· Increase and decrease in real estate prices· Up and down of stock market· Availability of credit is low· National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme –

Deviation of labor for indirect natural resources enhancement activities rather contributing to the direct production activities. This has lead to Non availability of labor or uneconomical to hire them.

Link

The drought-prone areas are confined mainly to the peninsular and western parts of the country.

These regions suffer drought mostly due to the cumulative effects of changing precipitation pattern, excessive water utilization and ecologically unsuitable agriculture practices

About 107 mha of the country spread over administrative districts in several states is affected by drought

Climate Change / Variability in Semi-arid regions

Precipitation is less than potential evapotranspiration.

Low annual rainfall of 25 to 60 centimeters and having scrubby vegetation with short, coarse grasses; not completely arid.

Andhra Pradesh - Administrative districts frequently affected by drought

Ananthapur Chittoor Cuddapah

Hyderabad Kurnool Mahaboobnagar

Nalgonda Prakasam

Freshwater management in India

Anupma Sharma

Water Conservation

Watershed management

Water quality conservation

Inter basin water transfer

GW management

Recycle and reuse of water

Public involvement and capacity building

Reported drought events in India over the past 200 years

Drought risk management

cycles

•Water in the tanks

•Conserving the trees

•Conserving fodder rather selling

•Food grains storage rather selling

1. Conserving the

resources

•Prioritizing the sale in distress

•Continue to do any work which provides food or wage

•Stop risking through going for borewells / wells

•Reduce input costs

•Ensure drinking water for people and animals

•Food and fodder security

2. Coping

•Don’t sell your land

•Try avoiding getting credit – the interest rates would swallow you

•Stop unnecessary spending on the cultural / social events – festivals, marriages, etc.

•Be united rather being in nuclear / dis-jointed families.

•Don’t cut / sell trees

•Take care of the health, so as to reduce the expenses on health

3. Not to do

•Micro-irrigation practices

•Go for Sustainable and subsistence crops rather just commercial crops

•Social networks are useful be in the groups existing at various levels

4. Prepare for the

adaptation

APDA

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APDA

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Watershed activities focus on vulnerability reduction

Livelihood support enforcing rights

Productivity of natural resources

Enhancement of knowledge

Every drop counts

Methods of waterharvesting

Some Illustrations of Benefits of WDPs

• -Replacing seasonal/annual crops with agro-silvi, agrohorti, silvi-horti; systems on hill slopes/degraded lands. Benefits: reduce soil erosion; arrest surface run-offs.

• -Training water to store excess water run-offs in farm ponds/percolation tanks. Benefits: improve groundwater recharge.

• -Construction of earthen or vegetative bunds or barriers to surface run-offs in a watershed. Benefits: help in moisture conservation.

Crop Insurance• A2.1. The National Agriculture Insurance Scheme has been implemented in Andhra

Pradesh since 1999-2000. The schemes are a mix of voluntary and compulsory participation. They are voluntary at the state level in terms of specific areas and crops. Once the specific area-crop combinations have been notified, participation is compulsory for farmers in those areas cultivating the specific crops and taking agricultural loans. In the case of loanee farmers the sum insured may be at least equal to the crop loan advanced. All farmers can insure to the value of the threshold yield of the insured crop.

• A2.2. Eighteen crops are currently insurable under NAIS during Kharif season (e.g., rice, maize, sunflower, groundnut, sugarcane, and cotton) and ten crops during Rabi season (e.g., rice, maize, sunflower, and groundnut). The standard area yield insurance scheme has recently been extended to farm income insurance and rainfall insurance.

• A2.3. The XI Finance Commission noted the need to strengthen the crop insurance scheme as a supplementary measure to what is done by the government for providing relief at the time of natural calamity.

• WEATHER BASED CROP INSURANCE SCHEME [WBCIS]

Calamity Relief Fund (CRF)

• A2.4. This fund was established separately for each state on the basis of recommendations of the IX Finance Commission and has since been approved for continuation by the X and XI Finance Commissions. This fund should be used for meeting the expenditure for providing immediate relief to the victims of cyclone, drought, earthquake, fire, flood and hailstorm. The table below describes the financial status of this fund over the last 5 years.

Drought Proofing ProgramsDrought Prone Areas Program (DPAP) • A2.6. DPAP, a centrally sponsored scheme, in operation since 1973, aims at restoring

ecological balance in the drought prone areas and mitigation of the adverse effects of drought on crops and livestock through integrated development of natural resources by adoption of appropriate technologies. However, the program fell short of its initial objectives despite large expenditure.

• A2.7. DPAP is aimed at developing the drought prone area with an objective of drought proofing by taking up of soil land moisture conservation, water harvesting structures, afforestation and horticulture programs on a comprehensive micro watershed basis. During 1994-95 the program was implemented in 69 blocks of 8 districts. From 1995-96 the program is extended further: 11 districts with 94 blocks under the scheme and Anantapur with 16 blocks under Desert Development Programs (DDP). So far, 3518 watersheds were taken up covering 110 blocks in 12 districts covering an area of 17.6 lakh hectares. Almost 30 percent of the total watersheds in country are located in Andhra Pradesh. Total Rs.507.57 crores are spent towards implementation of the program from 1995-96 to 2002-03. The expenditure for this program is shared by center and state governments in the ratio of 75:25.

Joint Forest Management / Community Forest Management

• A2.8. The Government of Andhra Pradesh adopted in 1992 the Joint Forest Management program which envisages a strategy for production, improvement and development of forest with the involvement of local communities by forming them into Vana Samrakshana Samithies (VSS).

• A2.9. There are 7090 VSS actively involved in protection and development of forests. 8.71 lakh hectares has been treated so far out of 17.40 lakh hectares of forest area under VSS. T he Joint Forest Management program is being supported by the World Bank funded A.P. Community Forest Management Project, NABARD assistant for RIDF schemes and Government of India funded Forest Development agencies.

Other methods

• Water Harvesting Structures• Micro Irrigation Project• Andhra Pradesh Rural Livelihood Project (APRLP)• Watershed Development• Integrated Wastelands Development Program

(IWDP)• Rural Infrastructure Development• Employment Programs - MGNREGA

Government departments (AP)• Agriculture and Co-Operation• Animal Husbandry and Fisheries• Backward Classes Welfare• Consumer Affairs Food & Civil Supplies• Energy• Environment, Forests, Science and Technology• FinanceFinance (PMU)Finance (Project Wing)• General Administration• Health, Medical and Family Welfare• Higher Education• Home• Housing• Industries and Commerce• Information Technology and Communications• Infrastructure and Investment• Irrigation

• Labour, Employment Training and Factories• Law• Minorities Welfare• Municipal Administration and Urban

Development• Panchayat Raj and Rural Development• Planning• Public Enterprises• Rain Shadow Areas Development• Revenue• School Education (SE Wing)• School Education (SSA Wing)• Social Welfare• Transport, Roads and Buildings• Women Development, Child Welfare and

Disabled Welfare• Youth Advancement, Tourism and Culture

http://www.aponline.gov.in/apportal/departments/portallistoforgsbydepts.aspx?i=3

MGNREGA'National Rural Employment Guarantee Act'2005 (NREGA)

Act guarantees 100 days of employment in a financial year to every household

a social safety net for the vulnerable groups and an opportunity to combine growth with equity

Structured towards harnessing the rural work-force, not as recipients of doles, but as productive partners in our economic process

assets created result in sustained employment for the area for future growth employment and self-sufficiency

Operationalised from 2nd February, 2006 in 200 selected districts, extended to 130 more districts in 2007-08.

The remaining districts (around 275) of the country under the ambit of NREGA from 1st of April, 2008

AgricultureIndia ‘s population is 1.21 billion in 2011. 67% are

rural. Majority are in agriculture.

Importance of agriculture in Indian economy. Although it

contributes only 15% of GDP, the share of workers is

about 55%.

Marginal and small farmers dominate

Major crops are rice, wheat, maize, coarse cereals,

groundnut, cotton, sugarcane, fruits and

vegetables

60% of cultivated area is rainfed as only 40% of area

is under irrigation.

Rural poverty is 41%in 2004-05.

Agriculture is a ‘State Subject’. In other words, the

policies of provinces are also important

Climate Change / Variability in Semi-arid regions

Climate Variability and extremes are an expected characteristic of semi-arid lands.

The people vulnerable to droughts, which trigger frequent subsistence crises

Increasing crop failures, dislocation, famine, poverty, increases stratification and the social inequities.

Major challenges of Agriculture

Climate change - variability - extremes

Soil fertility Water management

Impact of hazardous

pesticides and nitrogen fertilizers

Burning of crop residue

Alkalinity of soils

Vulnerability of poor in rural areas

Two-thirds of households derive income directly from natural sources

Natural resources are threatened by stresses Biotic & Abiotic

Agriculture & natural resource based livelihoods at immediate risk

Rural poor do not have resources to cope

Nature of Works

Water based

• » Water conservation • » Water harvesting• » Micro and minor irrigation works• » Provision of irrigation facilities• » Desilting of tanks• » Renovation of traditional water bodies• » Flood control and protection works

Land based• » Land development

Forest/ Agro--Forestry• » Afforestation• » Horticulture

Infrastructure• » Rural roads

Conservation technologies

Stress-tolerant, climate-resilient varieties of seeds, drip irrigation, zero-tillage, raised-bed planting, laser-levelling, Systems of Rice Intensification (SRI), can build adaptive capacities to cope with increasing water stress, providing “more crop per drop”.

CULTURAL

SPIRITUA

L

BELIEFS

RITUALS

FESTIVAL

S

ALTARS

CREMATION

SOURCES (BIOMAS

S)

GOOD STOVES• T

LUDs

• Other stoves

CROP

RESIDUE

POULTRY

LITTER

WASTE MANAGEMENT• S

ludge

PRACTICES

FOOD

PRESERVING FOOD

CLEANING

MEDICINE

MATTRESS

TOOTH POWDERAIR

QUALITY• CO2

/ CH4

WATER TREATME

NT

AQUARIUM /

TERRARIUMS

BIOCHAR BRICKS

BIOCHAR URINALS

SOAK PITS

FILTERING MEDIA

INSECT REPELLEN

T

SOIL AMENDMENT

INCREASED PRODUCTION

SOIL TEMPERATURE

REGULATED

MOISTURE RETENTION

WATER CONSERVATION

NITROGEN / PHOSPHOROUS

RETENTION

NURSERIESPESTICIDES ADBSORBTION

SOIL MICROBES DENSITY INCREASE

BIOCHAR COMPOST

EARTHWORMS INCREASE

TERMITES / ANTS REPULSION

CARBON SEQUESTRATION

ANIMAL

S

POULTRY - CH4 REDUCTION

LIVESTOCK

- URIN

E AND DUN

G

FYM /

COMPOST

BIOMASS

BIOCHAR

ENERGY

BIOCHARCULTURE

Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy, GEOhttp://e-geo.org | http://biocharculture.com

SOIL

BIOCHAR

BIOCHAR COMPOST

AGRICUTURE

PADDY METHANE EMISSIONS REDUCTION

PESTICIDE & COMPLEX

CHEMICALS AFFECTS

MITIGATION

EMMISIONS REDUCTION FROM FARM

YARD MANURES AND

COMPOSTS

CROP RESIDUE MANAGEMENT

ANIMALS

APPLICATION IN ANIMAL

PLACES TO TAP URINE,

SANITATION AND

EMISSIONS REDUCTION

RUMINANT ANIMALS METHANE EMISSIONS

REDUCTION AS FEED ADDITIVE

SOAKING IN WITH ANIMALS

URINE AND EXCRETA -

VALUE ADDITION

ENERGY

SOURCE FROM EFFICIENT TLUD COOK STOVES

AS BY PRODUCT FROM GASIFIER

STOVES, BOILERS ETC

CHARCOAL PRODUCTION

FROM BIOMASS /

WASTE MANAGEMENT

HABITAT

BIOCHAR BRICKS

BIOCHAR IN AQUARIUMS

BIOCHAR IN POULTRY FARMS

BIOCHAR IN FRIDGES,

MATTRESSES, ETC.

SANITATION

BIOCHAR URINALS

BIOCHAR TOILETS

BIOCHAR IN CATTLE SHEDS

CLEANING PLATES / UTENSILS

BATHING

HEALTH

CLEANING TEETH

BIOCHAR TABLETS

BIOCHAR IN FOOD AS PART

OF FOOD PREPARATIONS

WATER

WATER PURIFICATION – COLOR, ODOR, REMOVAL OF

HARMFUL ELEMENTS,

ETC.

RITUAL / SPIRITUAL / RELIGIOUS / PRACTICES

FIRE / ALTAR / YAGNAS /

AGNIHOTRA

FIRE DURING FESTIVALS

CREMATIONS

NATURAL / ARTIFICIAL

FIRES IN FORESTS /

FIELDS, ETC.

BIOCHARCULTURE

Biocharculture

Biocharculture is the process of using Biochar, including cultivation of crops

•Biochar is the charcoal produced from carbonaceous source material. Sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems•Biocharculture is one of the means to integrate for sustainable cultivation and carbon sequestration.•Biochar is usually produced at around temperatures 300 to 600 degrees centigrade for example as found in the common biomass cook stoves.•Because of its macromolecular structure dominated by aromatic C, Biochar is more recalcitrant to microbial decomposition than uncharred organic matter

Biocharculture Adaptation benefitsSecuring the crop from

drought and climate variabiiity

Reclaim the degraded soils, water conservation,

Lessen the impact of hazardous pesticides

and complex chemicals & to reduce plant

uptake.

reducing emissions and increasing the

sequestration of greenhouse gases

Conversion of crop residue into Biochar an

option and address carbon sequestration

Increase in crop yieldincreases in C, N, pH, and available P to the

plantsImpacts of Biochar last more than 1000 years.

Temperature regulation in the soil

Reduction in leaching of the bio / chem fertilizers applied

Increase in the soil microbes / worms at the biochar and soil

interface

CONTROL AND BIOCHAR - OKRA

Farmers focus80% ON CROP20% ON SOIL

BIOCHAR COMPOST

APPLICATION IN THE FIELDS

OKRA - CONTROL AND BIOCHAR PLOTS

CONTROL BIOCHAR COMPOST 4 KGS 8 KGS 12 KGS

1.5 FEET 6 FEET

CONTROL

BIOCHAR

BIOCHAR RESULTS

GSBC PROJECT, 2009 (DORUGHT PREVAILED DURING THE GROWING SEASON)

Methane Emissions from paddy fields

Biochar – livestock urine

Thank

you…Ref: http://...